Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:34 p.m. post time

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                             Morning lines

#2 Jet Set Lass                                           20/1
#4 Susananda                                             9/2
#6 Betterthanfiction                                 15/1
#8 Hypnotizing                                         10/1
#10 Bajan Kitty                                           5/1
#11 Gone Punk                                           12/1

This 10-horse field looks wide open and a decent price is likely, as several first-time starters are entered and the favorite looks vulnerable. I will bet more than one horse in here trying to beat #5 Strapless, #9 Suarez and #4 Susananda, if she’s bet too low.   

It appears that #9 Suarez, who is 7/2 on the morning line, will get lots of betting action because she led for most of her last two races and she’s showing the best two Beyer Speed Figures in the race. However, this late in the year, 2-year-old fillies typically win these types of races with Beyer numbers in the high 60s and low 70s and Saurez’  best is only a 61.

Furthermore, if she gets the lead by the quarter pole, Suarez will have to work hard, as #2 Jet Set Lass and #10 Bajan Kitty figure to be gunning too. Also, one of the first timers is very likely to have early foot.  

Of the debut runners, #11 Gone Punk is the best bet and two others — #4 Susananda and #8 Hypnotizing — have some things to like.  The owners of #4 Susananda, Chandler & Graham, have had six debuting runners in my records over the last two years. They won at 11/1 odds on Dec. 17, 2006 and at 7/2 on Feb. 14, 2007.  However, recently trainer Matlow has been winning second time out.

Trainer Craig Lewis, who is saddling Hypnotizing, has won with 2 of his last 9 Larry The Legend-sired debuters and he struck at odds of 12/1 and 13/1. Both won in January 2007, so maybe it’s getting to be that time of year for Lewis. 

Both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction look like automatic throw outs in the Daily Racing Form, but Jet Set Lass flashed good speed to the quarter pole last time and that’s important in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Betterthanfiction broke slowly in her two races, but last time she made up seven lengths very quickly on the backstretch. She then accelerated four wide on the turn while coming within a few lengths of #9 Suarez before quitting in the stretch. Both of these fillies figure to be monster prices.

Trainer Michael Machowsky is excellent when bringing horses off long layoffs. He missed last time with #10 Bajan Kitty, but is adding blinkers and dropping her in class today, so this one looks live if the odds are right. 

At the betting window, I want $200 to win on #11 Gone Punk if post time odds are 7/2 to 19/1 and I’ll bet $200 on #10 Bajan Kitty but only if she’s 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I’ll put $150 on both #8 Hypnotizing at 7/2 to 15/1, and #4 Susananda at 7/1 to 20/1. Additionally, I’ll take $50 on both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction at 10/1 or more.

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