Saturday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#2 Carrie Rose                                         3/1
#3 Ride a Wave                                       6/1
#6 Rising Honour                                      9/2

Without a doubt, the top early speed horse in this race is #2 Carrie Rose. In her past two sprints, Carrie Rose was pressured on the lead against maiden special weight competition. But today, she should get to the front rather easily and therefore should have more moxie in the stretch.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 66, either of Carrie Rose’s sprint finishes would have beaten many a $25k maiden claiming field. If this race were shorter, she would be a better bet, but speed is usually overvalued at 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs where pressers and closers do well.

Two promising closers in here are also returning from long layoffs. Trained by Eoin Harty, #6 Rising Honour is dropping from maiden special weight where she had been most recently routing on the turf. The move from turf route to maiden claiming sprint after a long layoff is a profitable one. And Rising Honour has the talent to win today, as all of her Beyer numbers either meet or exceed the median 66 BSF for this class.

Although #3 Ride a Wave is making her seventh lifetime start, this is her first in Southern California after campaigning in Florida throughout 2009. Her new trainer Kathy Walsh has a good record with newly-acquired horses and Ride a Wave ran decently in December before being put away.

As far as the odds go, if #6 Rising Honour is bet to 2-1 to 3-1 that would be a great sign that race track insiders think she is training well. If her price drifts to 7-2 or higher, then I will discount her chances.

Ride a Wave doesn’t look as good as Rising Honour on paper, but Kathy Walsh produces top results and I like this filly from 2-1 to 9-1.

I’ve been watching Mike Mitchell’s runners over the years, and he has an outstanding record in maiden claiming races like this one when his horses are bet below 3-1. The morning line maker believes Carrie Rose will be 3-1, but I think she’ll be more like 8-5 or 9-5.  

If #6 Rising Honour is 2-1 to 3-1 then I will be $500 on her.

If #2 Carrie Rose is 5-2 or less and Rising Honour is 7-2 or more, then I will bet $200 exactas 2 with 3,6.

Finally, at 4-1 to 9-1, I will bet $200 on #3 Ride a Wave.

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Results: Lost $400 by betting two $200 exactas keying #2 Carrie Rose at 6-5 to #3 Ride A Wave at 15-1 and #6 Rising Honour at 4-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Nosegay (CA) Pedroza M Barba A 28.70 8
2 2 Carrie Rose (CA) Smith M Mitchell M 1.20 3
3 3 Ride a Wave (KY) Flores D Walsh K 15.50 6
4 4 Junes Blue Moon (OR) Gihua J Martinez S 10.80 9
5 5 Storm’n Marisa (KY) Bisono A Chew M 39.60 4
6 6 Rising Honour (KY) Valenzuela P Harty E 4.00 1
7 7 Long Legged Lovely (CA) Bejarano R Jones M 10.30 5
9 8 Gavita (NM) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 60.60 11
10 9 Real Obvious (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 10.80 2
11 10 Love Song Mellody (KY) Cedeno A Martinez R 70.80 12
12 11 Atta’ Girl (CA) Valdez F Polanco M 18.00 7
13 12 Lady Adelle (KY) Velazquez J Sadler J 12.10 10
SCR - Touch a Dream (CA)     - -
SCR - Le Defi (CA) Quinonez A Lloyd J - -
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $10.00 $5.80 $3.60
10 - $10.40 $5.60
2 - - $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $143.65 (3-3-4/10-6)
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (6-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $33.20 (3-4-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $1005.40 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16190.40 (6-10-2-5-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1893.10 (6-10-2-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $137.20 (6-10-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $26.80 (4-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $4411.20 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $78.60 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $71.80 (6-10)

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

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