Shooting for $10,000 at Del Mar. Will sun shine on me?

Throngs of horseplaying, hat-wearing revelers are sure attend Del Mar's opening day on Wednesday.

 On June 25, 2008 – in the spirit of the book “My $50,000 Year at the Races”  — I started off with an imaginary bankroll of $50,000 and attempted to bet my way to $100,000 by June 25, 2009. 

The night before the races, I posted summaries of the merits of each prospective maiden contender, then wrote up my betting plan for the day.  When the results were in, I posted them on the site with a recap of the money that I either won or lost. 

For the year, I won 42 of the 133 races that I wagered on,  or 31.5 percent. I bet $59,715 and collected $76,495 for a profit of $16,780. My average race bet was $448 and my average payoff on the races I won was $1,821. Over the 133 races, I made $1.28 for every $1 bet for an average yield of $126 for each race wagered on. 

In 1978, Andrew Beyer published “My $50,000 Year at the Races” after experiencing, in 1977, a dizzying year that took him on the roller coaster ride of winning $10,000 one day, while being so frustrated on another day that he bashed a hole in the Gulfstream Park press box wall. 

When the ride stopped, Beyer had won $50,664 from a beginning bankroll of just $8,000. 

On Maiden King, I didn’t reach my goal of $100,000, but I believe even billionaire Warren Buffett would be happy with a 28 percent annual return on his money pile. At one frustrating point — when it seemed like a every maiden sprint for the next decade was going to be won by a 3-to-5 shot — I almost punched a hole in the wall, too. But I sort of need my hands, so I didn’t. 

However, that got me wondering…when the stock market crashed in 2008, did Buffett bash a hole in the wall of his Berkshire Hathaway office in Omaha? You know he probably wanted to. 

Anyway, after taking several months off to catch up on things, I am back for Del Mar. My theme for the 37-day meeting is to try to make $10,000 by closing day, which is Sept. 8, by betting $1,000 a day on maiden races. 

This goal is quite realistic because 27 percent of $37,000 is $10,000. My only problem is that my strongest races are maiden claiming sprints and Del Mar may not have any of these on some days. Again, I will start with $50K and see where it goes.

I expect to do well, but if you see me walking around Las Vegas with a cast on my right hand, you’ll know that things may not have gone according to plan.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#3 Sister Lucy                                   12/1
#11 Mar Fina                                     7/2
#12 Veranda Cafe                              3/1

Without a doubt, the filly with the best early speed is #3 Sister Lucy. In fact, her last two races were 870 yard quarter horse dashes at Los Alamitos.  And she has already run well enough to win at this level. On Oct. 19, Sister Lucy ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight event, which is significant because the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 67.

Two fillies coming off recent layoffs — #11 Mar Fina and #12 Veranda Cafe — also have some things to like. Coincidentally, both horses lost to monsters in their previous races, which were both in June 2008. Mar Fina ran into Rachel Alexandra when she broke her maiden and Veranda Cafe was defeated by Evita Argentina.

Trainer Mike Puype, who saddles Mar Fina, has recently excelled at bringing back second and third time starters from long vacations.

And horses who look like Veranda Cafe are excellent wagers when they are bet down a bit.

I will bet $250 to win on #11 Mar Fina at odds of 2/1 to 5/1. But if Mar Fina doesn’t fall into that range, or if #12 Veranda Cafe is a higher price than Mar Fina, then I will bet the $250 on Veranda Cafe instead as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Sister Lucy at 9/2 or more.

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 4 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Ghost Shadow                5/1
#2 Gambling Pokerface       20/1
#3 Magic Yodeler               5/1
#4 Rote                           5/1
#5 Necessary Evil              7/2
#6 Mi Sueno                     4/1
#7 Lena Miss                    20/1
#8 Laura’s Pleasure          8/1
#9 Win for M’lou                9/2

I couldn’t throw anybody out right now.

Why?

Because I think any of the horses can win this race, which has eight first-timers going out of the nine starters. The most likely winner of the debuters is #5 Necessary Evil, who is trained by Doug O’Neill. This filly has three swift workouts showing in her past performances and O’Neill won with four of his last 12 with this type of 2 year old.

The Hollywood Park morning line maker rated six of the eight first timers at odds of between 7-to-2 and 8-to-1. But I think two or three of these fillies will be greater than 10-to-1 and those are the ones that I will wager on.

The one experienced runner is #9 Win for M’lou. She showed some decent speed in her debut.

My bets will be $200 to win on #5 Necessary Evil at 7/2 or more; and $150 to win on any of these horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #1 Ghost Shadow, #2 Gambling Pokerface, #3 Magic Yodeler, #4 Rote, #6 Mi Sueno, #7 Lena Miss and #8 Laura’s Pleasure.

If two or fewer of the horses above fall into the betting zone, then I will also bet $200 on #9 Win for M’lou at 5/2 to 7/1 only. But if I’m able to bet three or more of the firsters, then I won’t wager on Win for M’lou at all.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Internet searchers seek “Chantal Sutherland nude”

Megan Fox is the most searched woman on Chickipedia

Megan Fox is the most searched woman on Chickipedia

Everyone, it seems, wants to see jockey Chantal Sutherland nude.

I know this because every weekend that the TV show “Jockeys” airs on Animal Planet, I get a surge of Internet traffic from people who type the entries “Chantal Sutherland” and “Chantal Sutherland nude” into Google or other search engines. Maiden King stories appear on search sites and Sutherland seekers get here by clicking on either a You Tube interview with Sutherland that appeared here, or a couple of MK posts telling of winning maidens that Sutherland rode.

It must be very disappointing when searchers seeking nudes arrive on Maiden King because in all cases, Sutherland is fully clothed.

Sorry dudes, no nudes.

I’ve only watched “Jockeys” the first night that it began on Feb. 6, but I am certain that the producers are focusing lots of attention on Sutherland, who was voted one of People Magazine’s 100 Most Beautiful People.

Whatever angle they are taking, it must be working because readers are interested in Sutherland like no other jockey in Southern California. And, although she is riding a respectable 13 percent winners from her mounts, it can’t be because of her performance on the racetrack.

Of the 50 search terms listed on this site by WordPress — mostly names of trainers, jockeys, horses and racing personalities –  the second most frequently used term is “Chantal Sutherland nude.” Elisha Cuthbert, whose photo was used one slow day, is the most searched and the third most searched term is “Chantal Sutherland.” But together, Sutherland has more searches than Cuthbert.

Cuthbert, an actress, is the 34th most widely searched woman on Chickipedia for 2008, so she has a large following already.

All this information arrives from WordPress when you have one of these blogs. Wordpress compiles statistics that tell which posts were clicked on the most for the day, week, month, year and all time. Also, it tells which search engine readers used to find your blog, and what terms they typed to get there.

The only reason Maiden King comes up for people searching for “Chantal Sutherland nude” is because on the day a story ran about Sutherland riding a winner, the “SPORTSbyBROOKS” website on my sidebar had news tellling that girls would be nude in the 2009 Lingerie Bowl. So the search engine picked up the three words: Chantal+Sutherland+Nude.

Anyway, I just wanted to make it clear: Yes, we have pictures of  Chantal Sutherland, but just not nude ones.

This just isn’t that kind of a website.

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:36 p.m. post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up, f & m

Possible overlays                                   Morning line

#2 Sweetpea                                               5/1
#7 Dish the Dirt                                            6/1
#9 Lavender Touch                                     5/2

Racing for the second time off a long layoff, #7 Dish the Dirt ran well enough to win at this level when she finished second in her debut. In that race, which was in December 2007, Dish the Dirt ran an 85 Beyer Speed Figure, which exceeds the median of 80 that usually wins at this class level. 

On Dec. 5, #9 Lavender Touch broke about five lengths behind the field, but jockey Michael Baze had a handful of horse all the way up the backstretch. Baze finally let Lavender Touch run in the stretch of this turf sprint and she finished well to be third, running a 74 Beyer. 

The Jay Robbins-trained #2 Sweet Pea was also making her debut in that same race. But it didn’t look like jockey David Flores was asking for much of an effort as she seemed to be breezing most of the way. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.

I will bet $200 on both #7 Dish the Dirt at 7/2 or more and #9 Lavender Touch at 2/1 or better.

If Lavender Touch dips to 9/5 or below, then I will bet $100 on #2 Sweetpea at 3/1 to 6/1 only.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:34 p.m. post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#3 All About Larry                             6/1
#4 Senor Afortunado                         8/1
#5 Olympic Force                             15/1
#9 Thornmark                                   2/1
#10 Go Cory Go                                 4/1
#11 Hold This                                   12/1

Several of these horses have the ability to win at this level. But if #9 Thornmark goes off at 2/1 or more then I will play him. Thornmark ran an 87 Beyer Speed Figure the only time he raced, which was almost a year ago — so he definitely fits. Also, trainer David Bernstein won at 19 percent last year, so he seems to know what he’s doing.

Others who were recently laid off that might run big include #3 All About Larry, #4 Senor Afortunado, #10 Go Cory Go and #11 Hold This.

I’ll bet $300 to win on #9 Thornmark at 2/1 to 7/2. 

But if Thornmark is 9-to-5 or lower, then instead I’ll take $200 to win on #3 All About Larry, #4 Senor Afortunado and #10 Go Cory Go, but only if their post time odds are 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I’m betting $150 on #11 Hold This at 2/1 to 9/1 regardless of Thornmark’s price.

No Santa Anita maiden sprints Sunday, so I guess Elisha Cuthbert’s picture will have to do

elisha-cuthbert1

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