Thursday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming 32K, 3 yo’s and up, F, 7 furlongs 

Possible overlays                Morning line 

#1 Lost Prophet                           3/1
#4 Kaysa Deeya                           7/2
#6 East Lake Shore                       8/1 

According to Brad Free in the Daily Racing Form, Mike Mitchell is 5-for-8 first off the claim with maiden claimers over the last four Del Mar meets. In this race, Mitchell saddles #1 Lost Prophet, who he claimed from Howard Zucker for $25,000 on July 9. 

This maiden $32K race is hardly a step up for Lost Prophet, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is only one point higher at $32K than at the maiden $25K level.  Also, Lost Prophet looks like she’ll get a clear lead and she might enjoy the leisurely fractions in these 7-furlong races. 

However, only 15 percent of all 7-furlong maiden claiming races for older horses in the last few years have been won wire-to-wire. So Lost Prophet does not have the right running style for this distance. 

A horse who does have the right 7-furlong running style is #3 Indiara. This Eoin Harty-trained runner has been bet below 5/1 in each of her last six starts and the Beyer Speed Figures in six of her last 10 outings would win most races at this level. 

But I can’t see Indiara going off at 5/2 or greater, so I most likely won’t be betting on her. 

Second-time starter #6 East Lake Shore looks interesting. Trainer Tim Yakteen who is winning at 19 percent for the year is just 1-of-29 in the last few years with debuting maidens at less than 20/1. 

And having watched the replay of East Lake Shore’s first start, she looks to have been given a tune-up race. She has worked out well and was bet down to 6/1 in her debut. 

Also, Yakteen has a decent record second time out and top jockey Joel Rosario is at the controls. 

I see nothing wrong with #4 Kaysa Deeya, who should come with a closing kick with jockey Patrick Valenzuela up. Kaysa Deeya, trained by John Sadler, also ran a couple of recent Beyers that are close to the median winning speed figure. 

If #1 Lost Prophet is 5/2 to 4/1 then I will bet $700 to win on her. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 East Lake Shore at 4/1 to 12/1. If Lost Prophet doesn’t fall into my odds zone, then I will put the $700 on #Kaysa Deeya at odds of 5/2 or higher.

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $150

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

In a ride that would have made Calvin Borel proud, jockey Joe Talamo steered #11 Subpoena the Dress onto the rail on the turn then gunned her up the inside in the stretch to win going away at 9-to-2.

As the race began, Subpoena the Dress broke alertly on the outside then faded toward the back of the pack, far behind pace setters #6 Eclipse Sarah and #7 Kaylie’s Joy.

Garrett Gomez tracked the leaders in third with #4 Brilliant Response at 9-to-2 and she surged three-wide on the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch. But just as she had in her previous two races, Brilliant Response had nothing in the lane and could only muster a third-place finish.

Trainer Tim Yakteen, who has two wins at Del Mar from just a handful of starters, had #8 Makit Till Midnite ready to run. This 16-to-1 shot came on the outside with a steady rally to capture the place money.

A well-bet 2-to-1 shot, #1 Lady Alex was a recent claim by John Sadler and she seemed to have tons of run while jockey Joel Rosario sat her on the rail in fourth. But in the stretch Lady Alex was pinned behind a wall of horses and didn’t find running room until it was too late. 

I had a lot of betting scenarios that were tied to the post time odds. In the end, I ended up  with $150 to win on #7 Kaylie’s Joy at 4-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lady Alex (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.00 5
2 2 Angel of Mystery (CA) Espinoza V Marquez A 9.90 7
3 3 Straight Sue (CA) Vergara O Fanning J 33.80 11
4 4 Brilliant Response (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 4.60 3
5 5 Party With Brando (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 28.50 4
6 6 Eclipse Syrah (CA) Baze T Sherlock G 18.80 10
7 7 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 4.30 8
8 8 Makit Till Midnite (CA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 16.30 2
9 9 Mystic Trip (CA) Stra K Martin, Jr. F 61.60 9
10 10 Alphabet Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 21.30 6
11 11 Subpoena the Dress (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $11.60 $6.80 $4.60
8 - $15.40 $8.00
4 - - $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $105.90 (11-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.50 (6-8-11)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15221.90 (11-8-4-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $749.10 (11-8-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $68.40 (8-11)
$2.00 Quinella paid $139.00 (8-11)

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot                   5/1
#3 Royally Large                            8/1
#4 De Car Chic                              20/1
#7 Right to Work                            8/1
#8 Salty Fries                                9/2
#10 Boots n’ Bangles                       20/1
#11 Miss Salt Mine                          7/2

This race is full of money making angles and I can see any of seven of the 12 runners winning it. When wagering, I will consult the odds board for clues and to determine value.

First-time starter #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot breaks from the rail for trainer Mike Mitchell, who has an excellent record with debut horses in this class. Garrett Gomez has won on both first timers that he rode for Mitchell and the owners, Vessels Stallion Farm, is also 2-for-2 with debuters.

Jeff Mullins is another trainer who does well with maiden claiming first-time starters. Mullins saddles #3 Royally Large, who is owned by David Lanzman Racing Stable and that outfit frequently wins first time out. 

An early foal, #4 De Car Chic is another filly making her first start. She’s been working out well and I’ll need to see the tote board for more clues.

I most likely won’t be betting #7 Right to Work, who is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes. However, if she’s bet below 5-to-1 she becomes a player.

Second-time starter #8 Salty Fries ships in from the Northern California fair circuit.  She ran decently on July 2 and now adds blinkers while dropping in class. 

Owners D & E Racing usually employ Bob Baffert to train their stock, but this time former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen gets the call. Their debuter #10 Boots n’ Bangles has been working out at San Luis Rey Downs and is a good bet if the price is right.

Trainer Mike Puype won with four of his last six maiden claiming second timers that were dropping in class. Although, unlike #11 Ms. Salt Mine, most of them were coming off long layoffs. In Ms. Salt Mine’s first race on July 2 she dueled for the lead for a quarter mile and showed much better early speed than any of the other experienced runners in this race.

With so many horses to like, it complicates the win wagering. My best bet is #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and I will put $300 on her at 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 if she drifts to 10/1 and up. My second choice is #11 Ms. Salt Mine and I’ll take $250 to win on her at 3/1 to 9/1 only.

If either of those two horses are out of the betting zone, then I will put $200 to win on both #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries at 4/1 to 10/1, and $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. But if both #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and #11 Ms. Salt Mine have bettable odds then I’ll put only $100 on #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries and bump their acceptable odds to 7/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #4 De Car Chic and #10 Boots n’ Bangles are 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll put $150 to win on them both regardless of anything else.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 1 — lost $550

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

It’s not often that the 5-to-2 morning line favorite goes off at 6-to-1 and wins the race. But that’s exactly what happened when #5 Box Office Star rallied to win Sunday’s first race.

Box Office Star, trained by Tim Yakteen, ran well in his May 25 debut to earn a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. But horses who have that profile aren’t usually profitable bets so I did not fear this gelding.

Instead, I backed #6 Escaping the Storm and #8 Eisenheim because they were being bet after recent long layoffs. Although they had better long-term angles going for them, they were no match for Box Office Star.

Eisenheim pressed the pace from second then faded in the stretch at 2-to-1 while Escaping the Storm, 3-to-1, rallied up the rail to finish second.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 No Caps No Floors (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 8.70 7
2 2 Great Raid (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A 2.60 6
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 27.20 3
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 10.90 4
5 5 Box Office Star (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 6.40 1
6 6 Escaping the Storm (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 3.20 2
7 7 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Stra K Van Berg J 65.90 8
8 8 Eisenheim (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 5
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $14.80 $7.00 $4.20
6 - $4.80 $3.80
3 - - $9.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $29.80 (5-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1831.80 (5-
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