When getting ready to bet a race, I use Beyer Speed Figures, replays, profiles, pace ratings, trainer angles and race models. While I am looking things over, I am constantly trying to figure out who will run big at a price that is better than fair value. For example, if the runner has a 33 percent chance of winning, then I am looking for 3-to-1 or better because then the money won will make up for the horses that lose.
I marvel at horseplayers who can walk into a betting parlor, grab the racing form, then pick winners all day long. Some people know how to read between the past performance lines. I can’t do that.
In my opinion, a horse’s running lines are just a blueprint and much more work must be done to become a successful bettor. The information on this blog will probably help you show a profit over time, but trends come and go and I might lose due to poor analysis or bad luck. Besides, when a horse has a 40 percent chance of winning that means it has a 60 percent chance of losing.
Many times in a race, several horses have money-making angles going for them and I might choose the wrong one. So, in theory, I may lose money over time while wagering on what the numbers show to be overlaid horses if I make the wrong choices, I use bad money management or I somehow encounter longterm bad racing luck.
Anything can and does happen in horse racing: jockeys fall off, runners get severely bumped and horses fall down.
Sometimes, promising trends produce duds. For example, since 2006 trainer Jack Carava won with three of his last five 2-year-old first time starters that were less than 20-to-1. The winners paid 9-to-1, 12-to-1 and 18-to-1. So, on Nov. 6, 2011, Carava appeared to me to have a good shot with Thunder of India as he legged up jockey Martin Pedroza at 9-to-1.
However, Thunder of India broke slowly, trailed down the backstretch and had no rally. Sometimes, that’s how it goes.
Nothing is guaranteed. And there are no sure things.
So, I try to bet the same amount every race, however if I am going good I slowly increase the wagers with each race that I hit. I don’t get too excited when I win, or down when I lose.
If you decide to bet based on what I say on this blog, then please do so conservatively and remember there is always tomorrow. And if you disagree with my outlook, I welcome your comments as long as they are civil.