Today is opening day at Oak Tree and this ninth race looks like it should have a good bet or two. I’m still a bit behind in record keeping, so after this I will only be posting on the weekends while I catch up.
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Red Door Drive 7/2
#8 Good Newsman 9/2
#9 Markus D. 12/1
#10 Little Heater 12/1
#11 De Brief Me 8/1
#13 Boo Too 4/1
Owner Arnold Zetcher transferred #3 Red Door Drive from trainer Ron McAnally to Bob Baffert since the colt’s last race one year ago. This colt tried nine times to win on the turf against better horses, but was often wide and never quite got the job done.
Red Door Drive, who last raced in September 2008, has the right running style for 7 furlongs and has a good shot to win despite the layoff — especially if there’s some betting action. Also, jockey Martin Pedroza jumped off #13 Boo Too, 4-to-1 on the morning line, to ride for Baffert.
Four other runners are also coming off recent layoffs. Trainer Dan Hendricks saddles #8 Good Newsman and Hendricks has done well in the past with this type of horse. I would only consider geldings #9 Markus D. and #11 De Brief Me if they are bet drastically below their morning lines of 12/1 and 8/1 respectively. But the Jeff Mullins 5-year-old #10 Little Heater could spring an upset at a good price.
I will bet $300 on #3 Red Door Drive at 2/1 to 7/2, but only $150 if the odds drift from 4/1 to 10/1. In the unlikely event that any of these horses are 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $150 on the highest priced runner in that odds range among #8 Good Newsman, #9 Markus D., #10 Little Heater and #11 De Brief Me.
At odds of 4/1 and up, I’ll put $100 on #10 Little Heater.