Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 5:30 pm post time

August 6, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo and up

Possible overlays                Morning line

#5 Storm’n Marisa                      8/1
#9 Mo Cheese                           3/1

Yes, Joel Rosario is the leading rider at the meet. And yes, #8 Princess Beau K made a nice middle move in a 7-1/2 furlong race on May 30 that shows she has the talent to win this one.

But Princess Beau K is also the consensus best bet in the Daily Racing Form, with both Mike Hammersly and Brad Free putting her in bold type. So, I am hoping that the public pounds this filly down below 2/1.

That would help set up a decent price on #9 Mo Cheese. Trained by Rafael Becerra, Mo Cheese ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure as a 2-year-old in December 2008 and followed it up by showing some speed at a mile in January 2009. For her third start, Mo Cheese was dropped from maiden special weight into a claiming sprint where Becerra took her for $40,000 off trainer Doug O’Neill.

Mo Cheese hasn’t run since Feb. 8, 2009, but Becerra has done well over the last few years with this type of maiden. Mo Cheese has the right running style for the distance, and has already earned speed figures that would win many of these low-class events.

Another filly coming off a layoff, #5 Storm’n Marisa looks like she might  enjoy 6-1/2 furlongs based on her decent finish in a 5-1/2 furlong race in December 2009.  This 9-race veteran’s former running style was to go to the front early, but she usually tired in the stretch with that strategy.

In the last few races of her past performances, Storm’n Marisa seemed to ration her energy much better, so she might rate well today. She’s been off since January and has low-percentage connections. But Storm’n Marisa had a bullet workout on July 26 and is a good bet at 10/1 to 19/1.

At odds of 5/2 or more, I will bet $800 to win on #9 Mo Cheese. Also, if #5 Storm’n Marisa’s odds are between 10/1 and 19/1, then I will wager $200 to win on her. But if Storm’n Marisa’s odds are not in the 10/1 to 19/1 zone then I will increase my bet on Mo Cheese to $1,000.

Lastly, if Mo Cheese’s odds are exactly 2/1, then I will reduce my bet on her to $300.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #9 Mo Cheese at 2-1.

*********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Sexy Melody (KY) Pedroza M Meredith D 17.40 4
2 2 Atta’ Girl (CA) Verenzuela J Polanco M 9.30 3
4 3 Bear River (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 42.70 8
5 4 Storm’n Marisa (KY) Bisono A Chew M 8.70 6
6 5 Dancing Lauren (KY) Bejarano R Mulhall K 8.50 1
7 6 Gavita (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 11.90 7
8 7 Princess Beau K (CA) Rosario J Eurton P 1.50 2
9 8 Mo Cheese (CA) Garcia M Becerra R 2.00 5
SCR – Binky’s Sister (CA) John K Kasparoff J – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $19.00 $5.80 $3.40
8 – $3.00 $2.40
2 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $23.10 (6-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $162.00 (2-1-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $815.40 (6-8-2-1)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar, Friday Race 8 – lost $180

July 28, 2010 — maidenking

Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed Irish-bred Titus Aurelius for $25,000 on June 4 and won a Maiden $32K claiming race with him

My first thought when I saw the morning line for this race was that the odds for #9 Titus Auerelius, at 5-to-2, needed to be much closer to those of #3 D’oro Dancer, at 9-to-2. 

D’oro Dancer had stamina, speed and decent Beyer Speed Figures. And although Titus Aurelius’ past performances looked OK, it was obvious that he was the morning line favorite because of the glamour connections of jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Doug O’Neill. 

O’Neill claimed Titus Aurelius from Simon Callaghan on June 4 for $25,000 and on June 25 the gelding showed speed before fading in a maiden special weight turf sprint. On Friday, as the horses loaded into the gate, the public saw what I saw and made Titus Aurelius 8-to-5 and D’oro Dancer 2-to-1.   

In this race, Rosario quickly went to the front with Titus Aurelius, who cruised willingly on the lead down the backstretch in this 7-furlong sprint.  D’oro Dancer, who was also running without being asked, got to the flank of Titus Aurelius as the field swang into the turn. 

At the quarter pole, jockey Tyler Baze pushed D’oro Dancer to within a half length of Titus Aurelius and it looked like a stretch duel was forthcoming. However, when Rosario asked Titus Aurelius for more, he kicked away to an easy three-length win. 

I was prepared to put $650 on D’oro Dancer at 5-to-2 or better, but his post time odds were just 2-to-1. Another one of my wagers was to bet #7 Big Wags at 3-to-1 or better, but only if D’oro Dancer was also 7-to-2 or more, which he was not. 

However, I forgot to specify odds for the exotics, which included keying 39-to-1 shot Spinco Bob for third in the trifecta and second in the exacta to D’oro Dancer and Spinco Bob. Those bets cost me $180.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Not in Siberia (CA) Garcia M Ordonez A 12.90 7
2 2 Kim’s Leading Man (CA) Gonzalez A Abrams B 18.90 2
3 3 D’oro Dancer (KY) Baze T Walsh K 2.10 3
4 4 My Last Tycoon (NY) Espinoza V Stute M 10.60 4
6 5 Yvett’s Maar (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 45.90 9
7 6 Big Wags (ON) Bejarano R Glatt M 4.00 6
8 7 Spinco Bob (CA) Pedroza M Velasquez D 39.00 8
9 8 Titus Aurelius (IRE) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.70 1
10 9 Anga (CA) Berrio O Garcia V 20.30 5
SCR – Brianville (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Callaghan C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $5.40 $3.60 $2.80
2 – $9.80 $5.20
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $337.30 (8-2/6-10-5/9)
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $12.50 (6-4/5-9)
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $73.90 (6-10-9)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2633.10 (7 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $2298.40 (9-2-3-4-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $559.00 (9-2-3-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $121.30 (9-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $24.00 (10-9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $138257.00 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $965.60 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $56.80 (2-9)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

October 16, 2009 — maidenking
Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1
2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5
3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8
4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9
5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7
6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3
7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6
8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4
9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 – $4.00 $3.60
6 – – $15.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time

October 11, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Learn the Sport                        7/2
#5 Nanni the Teaser                       8/1
#8 Boo Too                                   8/1
#9 Remember Mike                         2/1

A 78 Beyer Speed Figure is the median winning number for this class and the only runner close to that is #2 Learn the Sport. This Barry Abrams-trained runner broke slowly in his last at 6 furlongs but came with a strong rail-hugging run to earn a 76 Beyer. He was recently gelded, he should relish the extra half furlong and looks tough.

Trainer Jorge Periban claimed #8 Boo Too on Sept. 30 from Craig Lewis for $22,500 and steps him up the class ladder. Boo Too ran very well on Sept. 10 at Fairplex Park, losing to the a good maiden claimer named Morton Owen. However, something went very wrong in his last as Boo Too finished eleventh. To compete with these, Boo Too will need to regain his best form and then some. One big drawback is that Periban is 0-for-24 when running back first after the claim, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Finally, two second time starters are dropping in class. Both #5 Nanni the Teaser and #9 Remember Mike ran decently in their debuts and have been working out well. If the money shows up, I’m interested.

Betting Scenarios: I will put $300 to win on #2 Learn the Sport at odds of 5/2 to 7/1 only. If Learn the Sport goes off at 8/1 or better, then my wager drops to $100.

Also, I will put $150 to win on #9 Remember Mike at 5/2 to 7/1 only. If that colt falls out of the betting range, then I want $100 to win on #5 Nanni the Teaser at 5/2 to 7/1 instead.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — lost $300

October 4, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Carl O'Callahan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

Trainer Carl O'Callaghan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

In July, trainer Carl O’Callaghan sent #12 Brian the Brave to be gelded and when the 3-year-old came back to the races on Sept. 4, the new gelding was a faster, more valuable animal.

In that first comeback race, Brian the Brave ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure while four paths wide on the turn, which was probably his fastest race up until that point.  In the interim, Brian the Brave had two fast workouts which set him up well for Sunday when he broke his maiden at 9-to-1 by running down #11 Launch the Bull.

And Launch the Bull was no slouch. Coming into the race, Launch the Bull exceeded the median Beyer Speed Figure needed to win at this class in his last three starts.

All of Launch the Bull’s three losses were against higher-priced maiden claimers. The one big knock on Launch the Bull, though, is that this Peter Miller-trainee tires late and seems to always get caught at the wire.

Sunday was no different.

The race began with speed ball #6 Jamieson going straight to the front on the backstretch. Both Launch the Bull and Brian the Brave were stalking the pace from about a length behind. And midway on the turn, both surged to the lead as a team.

At the top of the lane, Launch the Bull pulled away from Brian the Brave by a length, but just like in his past races, Launch the Bull couldn’t hold the lead and Brian the Brave nailed him at the wire.

The win was just the third of the year for trainer Carl O’Callaghan, who moonlights by performing Irish music in Los Angeles and San Diego area bars. By clicking on his name, you can check his music website or here for his stable site.

I bet $300 on Launch the Bull at 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Adebayor (KY) Garcia M O’Neill D 4.20 5
3 2 Heisman U (KY) Rivera C Stute G 28.70 6
4 3 Fun in the Park (CA) Arambula P Periban J 103.50 9
6 4 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 3.50 8
7 5 Escaping the Storm (FL) Bejarano R Hess, Jr. R 4.20 3
9 6 Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 23.70 7
10 7 Eminent Honor (KY) Iniguez S Fernandez V 68.90 10
11 8 Launch the Bull (KY) Santiago Reyes C Miller P 2.00 2
12 9 Brian the Brave (KY) Quinonez A O’Callaghan C 9.40 1
13 10 Father Grumpy (CA) Rosario J Gutierrez J 15.10 4
SCR – Halo’s Limit (KY) Olivarez M Jimenez J – –
SCR – Louie Tre (FL)     – –
SCR – Freetoagoodhome (CA) Valdez F Wicker L – –
SCR – Tumbling Dice Man (CA) Atkinson P Pender M – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $20.80 $8.00 $6.20
11 – $3.40 $2.80
7 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $7.10 (10-2-7/8)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , . 6 Comments »

Results, Santa Anita Wednesday Race 9 — lost $550

October 4, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

At 77-to-1, it should come as no surprise that Spartan Jet’s only two past performance lines were ugly. In both races, he broke slowly, made no move on the turn and had no rally in the stretch. 

But on Wednesday, Spartan Jet broke alertly and virtually led this 12-horse field wire-to-wire, lighting up the toteboard with a $157.60 win payoff.

Before being awarded the official victory, however, owner-trainer Juan Lopez had to sweat out a claim of foul by jockey Martin Pedroza. Pedroza, who ironically rode Spartan Jet in his first two starts, claimed that his mount Red Door Drive was impeded when rider Kyle Kaenel allowed Spartan Jet to swerve out approaching midstretch.

Red Door Drive, trained by Bob Baffert, had last raced in September 2008 and nine of his 10 lifetime races were on the turf. In Wednesday’s race, Red Door Drive moved from last place on the turn to a good stalking position about two lengths away from the leaders.

As the field moved into the stretch, Pedroza tried to take Red Door Drive outside of Spartan Jet, but that horse unexpectedly swerved suddenly, so Pedroza went inside. Red Door Drive had plenty of time to pass Spartan Jet but — perhaps because he was inside of him — Red Door Drive never went by and lost by a head.

At 7/2, I bet $300 on Red Door Drive, wagered $150 more on #8 Good Newsman at 3/1 and another $100 on 23-to-1 shot #10 Little Heater.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Irish Weis Man (CA) Quinonez A Abrams B 37.10 7
2 2 Panda (CA) Santiago Reyes C Van Berg J 12.70 6
3 3 Red Door Drive (KY) Pedroza M Baffert B 3.80 2
4 4 Whizer (CA) Valdez F Bradvica L 28.80 10
5 5 Trueno (CA) Vergara O Capitaine N 16.50 4
6 6 Spartan Jet (KY) Delgadillo A Lopez J 77.80 1
7 7 Smokenomore (CA) Migliore R Spawr W 6.90 8
8 8 Good Newsman (KY) Espinoza V Hendricks D 3.30 3
9 9 Markus D. (CA) Talamo J Jones M 22.80 9
10 10 Little Heater (CA) Garcia M Mullins J 22.90 12
11 11 De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M 7.60 5
13 12 Boo Too (KY) Rosario J Lewis C 3.40 11
SCR – Glorious Mon (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $157.60 $76.60 $29.80
3 – $6.00 $3.60
8 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $496.30 (6-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $932.20 (2-3-6)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $15769.00 (3-2-3-6)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $47870.00 (8-3-2-3-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $3271.80 (9 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $83656.60 (6-3-8-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $2585.40 (6-3-8)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $522.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $37620.80 (3-8-3-2-3-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:30 pm post time

October 4, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#6 Jamieson                                         7/2
#7 Escaping the Storm                          4/1
#11 Launch the Bull                               3/1

On July 24, trainer Peter Miller brought #11 Launch the Bull back from a 10-month layoff and this gelding has had nothing but bad luck ever since. In all three of his races since, Launch the Bull had the lead and appeared to be headed to victory, but was nailed nearing the wire — one time by a horse that came again on the rail.

In his last five starts, Launch the Bull earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 73 to 89 range. So, considering that the median winning number for these $25,000 claiming horses is a 74, Launch the Bull figures to be tough to beat unless, of course, he’s simply a notorious hanger.

Another horse that could also run huge is #6 Jamieson. This 4-year-old stayed away from the track for more than a year, but almost won his June 6 comebacker. He showed good speed that day before tiring, however on Sept. 2 Jamieson dashed a first quarter mile that was some five lengths quicker than his June 6 race.

It was a colossal improvement, but Jamieson staggered to the wire that day, too, and lost by a nose while earning a 63 Beyer. Sooner or later he’ll put it all together and today just might be the day.

Finally, Escaping the Storm is eligible to improve as he’s also had a few races back after a 9-month rest.

I will put $300 to win on #11 Launch the Bull at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $150 at odds of 4/1 or higher. If Launch the Bull drifts above 7/2, then I will play $200 to win on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2. 

Also, regardless of Launch the Bull’s odds, I’ll put $150 to win on Jamieson at 4/1 or higher.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 5 pm post time

September 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Today is opening day at Oak Tree and this ninth race looks like it should have a good bet or two. I’m still a bit behind in record keeping, so after this I will only be posting on the weekends while I catch up.

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Red Door Drive                      7/2
#8 Good Newsman                      9/2
#9 Markus D.                            12/1
#10 Little Heater                       12/1
#11 De Brief Me                         8/1
#13 Boo Too                             4/1

Owner Arnold Zetcher transferred #3 Red Door Drive from trainer Ron McAnally to Bob Baffert since the colt’s last race one year ago. This colt tried nine times to win on the turf against better horses, but was often wide and never quite got the job done.

Red Door Drive, who last raced in September 2008, has the right running style for 7 furlongs and has a good shot to win despite the layoff — especially if there’s some betting action. Also, jockey Martin Pedroza jumped off #13 Boo Too, 4-to-1 on the morning line, to ride for Baffert.

Four other runners are also coming off recent layoffs. Trainer Dan Hendricks saddles #8 Good Newsman and Hendricks has done well in the past with this type of horse. I would only consider geldings #9 Markus D. and #11 De Brief Me if they are bet drastically below their morning lines of 12/1 and 8/1 respectively. But the Jeff Mullins 5-year-old #10 Little Heater could spring an upset at a good price.

I will bet $300 on #3 Red Door Drive at 2/1 to 7/2, but only $150 if the odds drift from 4/1 to 10/1. In the unlikely event that any of these horses are 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $150 on the highest priced runner in that odds range among #8 Good Newsman, #9 Markus D., #10 Little Heater and #11 De Brief Me.

At odds of 4/1 and up, I’ll put $100 on #10 Little Heater.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $400

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

garrettgomez25_mjm[1]

Riding for trainer Jack Carava, Garrett Gomez got #12 Lunar Humor up in the final strides

Three horses were dropping into maiden claiming $25,000 for the first time after running decently against classier animals. And #12 Lunar Humor, #2 Al N Con and #4 Morton Owen finished 1-2-3.

 Trainer Jack Carava ran Lunar Humor against maiden special weight company until his fifth race. But when the gelding could finish no better than third in four straight races, Carava began descending the class ladder.

In the maiden claiming ranks last May and June, Lunar Humor ran low-to-mid 70 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing second two times — first for $80,000 claiming and then for $40,000. On July 24 something curious happened, as jockey Michael Baze merely breezed Lunar Humor in the stretch, which caused the Beyer to sink to an all-time low of 63.

I am sure that the low last-race Beyer kept some betting money off of Lunar Humor, a 3-to-1 shot, despite the presence of jockey Garrett Gomez, who has a large following. In a recent TVG video, Carava — who is the son of a horse trainer — said that he enjoys picking spots for his runners, strategizing and compared horse racing to poker.

So maybe, just maybe, Carava was “strategizing” by breezing his horse in the stretch, so it would pay a good price when he picked his spot on the drop.

This race began with #2 Al N Con, #8 She Made Me Do It and #11 Cafe Con Leche all battling head-to-head down the backstretch.  Al N Con, who had led in his last two races against $40,000 maiden claimers, shook clear by a length on the bend, as Cafe Con Leche kept chasing.

As the field swung into the lane, Morton Owen and Joel Rosario were making a move some eight paths wide with Lunar Humor also coming on just inside of him. They had to make up four lengths on Al N Con, 4/1, at the top of the stretch.

When Joe Talamo rode Al N Con past the sixteenth pole, he still had what appeared to be a safe 2-length lead. But Lunar Humor came with a late charge to get up with two jumps to go.

Despite being extremely wide, Morton Owen, at 9-to-2, only missed by two lengths.

I bet $400 on Morton Owen because he had lots of positive long-term betting angles going for him. This gelding was 3-to-1 on the morning line, but was cold on the board throughout the betting period and ended up at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Deltamax (FL) Gryder A Cerin V 30.20 11
2 2 Al N Con (CA) Talamo J Rosales R 4.10 2
3 3 Joys Last One (CA) Stra K Martinez S 65.30 10
4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 4.50 3
5 5 Spartan Jet (KY) Pedroza M Lopez J 41.60 7
6 6 Smokenomore (CA) Garcia M Spawr W 6.50 4
7 7 Warren’s Juan (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 37.10 8
8 8 She Made Me Do It (CA) Blanc B Bacorn H 16.80 12
9 9 Secret Lure (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 21.80 6
10 10 Yrunvs M. B. (CA) Valdez F Becerra R 27.30 9
11 11 Cafe Con Leche (KY) Quinonez A Miller P 3.70 5
12 12 Lunar Humor (KY) Gomez G Carava J 3.20 1
SCR – Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R – –
SCR – Objectified (CA) Baze T West T – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $8.40 $4.40 $3.20
2 – $5.20 $3.60
4 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.30 (12-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.60 (7-1-12)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $264.80 (12-2-4-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $40.90 (12-2-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $51.20 (1-12)
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.20 (2-12)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#2 Al N Con                                  5/1
#4 Morton Owen                            5/2
#6 Smokenomore                           12/1
#12 Lunar Humor                            3/1

Mike Mitchell leads over #4 Morton Owen. While it’s true that this gelding has had six chances to break his maiden and couldn’t get the job done. And that he was bet below 4-to-1 in his last four starts.

It is also true that this 3-year-old is coming off of a four-month freshening and is dropping in class to his lowest lifetime level. Furthermore, the 74 Beyer Speed Figure Morton Owen ran in February equates to an 83 after adding on six points for growth in his 3-year-old season and three more points for a wide trip.

If Morton Owen can run in the neighborhood of an 83 Beyer then he’ll be very tough considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is just a 74.

Another who I give a chance to is #2 Al N Con. He’s also running in a $25,000 maiden claimer for the first time. On July 29, he tired after a speed duel in a maiden claiming $35,000 sprint to earn a 71 Beyer. With softer early fractions, Al N Con may be able to run a 77.

Lastly, Jack Carava, the trainer of #12 Lunar Humor, changes jockeys from Michael Baze to Garrett Gomez. Looking at the July 24 race replay, it appears that Lunar Humor breezed in the stretch. In the past, Lunar Humor has earned low-to-mid 70s Beyer figures, which may be enough to win if Morton Owen and Al N Con aren’t at their best.

I will bet $400 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 9/1 and $100 on #2 Al N Con at 9/2 and above. If Morton Owen’s odds are out of the zone, then I will substitute $200 to win on #12 Lunar Humor at 2/1 and up.

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Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 2 — won $1,820

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

moneyman[1]This appeared to be a weak field for the level because none of these runners approached the median 82 Beyer Speed Figure that’s usually needed to win.

Surprisingly, the public settled on #5 Rented Cop as the 8-to-5 favorite. I assume it was because Rented Cop was dropping from maiden special weight into claiming. Although this gelding showed some speed in his debut, he really had not shown much overall promise.

Rented Cop’s 43 and 64 Beyer Speed Figures were nothing special and he was an easy favorite to wager against. On the rail, #1 Crazy Wager was 10 or 11 paths wide entering the stretch in his last, so I bumped his speed figure from 66 to 76 to make up for the lost ground.

And #7 Final Journey could have been any kind. He ran OK in his only lifetime start last February, but his workouts were all slow ones. Regardless, I gave trainer Marty Jones the benefit of the doubt.

In the race, apprentice jockey Christian Reyes-Santiago went right to the lead with 18-to-1 shot #3 Del Mar Express. The only problem with that strategy is that early speed is not as valuable at 6-1/2 furlongs as it is at shorter distances. Before even hitting the turn, Del Mar Express was tackled by #2 Velikaya on the inside and Rented Cop on the outside.

Del Mar Express backed up fast on the turn while Rented Cop continued to duke it out with Velikaya. By this time, Final Journey had worked his way through the pack to be third at the top of the stretch.

At 7-to-1, Final Journey rallied to the lead at the eighth pole and Crazy Wager, at 9-to-2, also showed a good late kick to get second.

I bet $400 on Crazy Wager and $300 on Final Journey. I got back $2,520 for a gain of $1,820.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Crazy Wager (CA) Baze M Becerra R 4.30 2
2 2 Velikaya (CA) Rosario J Moger, Jr. E 9.00 5
3 3 Del Mar Express (CA) Santiago Reyes C Mendoza J 18.60 6
4 4 Philly Slew (CA) Baze T Gregory W 5.20 4
5 5 Rented Cop (CA) Nakatani C Pender M 1.70 3
6 6 Comic Thunder (CA) Kaenel K Periban J 4.00 7
7 7 Final Journey (CA) Talamo J Jones M 7.40 1
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $16.80 $6.60 $3.80
1 – $4.60 $3.40
5 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.50 (7-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $153.00 (7-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $69.20 (3-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $34.40 (1-7)
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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 10 — won $400

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

One%20Hundred%20Dollar%20Bill[1]Last summer, #12 Legend of My Own ran 76 and 73 Beyer Speed Figures in two consecutive maiden special weight races, but then tailed off into the 60’s while racing three times against maiden claimers.

Something was obviously wrong. So, trainer Jeff Mullins gave Legend of My Own eight months off and the gelding responded well by coming back in June to run a 76 Beyer.

Breaking from the outside in Sunday’s race, Legend of My Own was able to avoid trouble from a spill. Alex Solis shot #3 Endless Moon up the inside to the lead, but the gelding went head over heels soon after. Solis’ body tumbled to the ground as the other 10 horses attempted to avoid him.

But #8 Captain Cash slammed into the rolling Endless Moon causing that horse to fall and tossing Aaron Gryder. Luckily, neither of the jockeys were seriously hurt.

As the race continued, longshot #1 Richardminichiello led down the backside, but was overtaken by #10 Afleet Hopetown who took the field to top of the stretch. On the turn, #6 Pinstripe Kid made a move on the inside and Legend of My Own went with him.

In deep stretch, Pinstripe Kid briefly held the lead but succumbed to Legend of My Own, who was just too good.

I bet $300 on Legend of My Own and $200 on Pinstripe Kid. I collected $900 and profited $400.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 64.30 8
2 2 Ryland (CA) Garcia M Yakteen T 37.90 6
3 3 Endless Moon (KY) Solis A Lewis L 4.70 11
4 4 Mister Jo Jangles (KY) Kaenel K Fulmer D 60.80 7
6 5 Pinstripe Kid (CA) Santiago Reyes C Morey, Jr. W 4.50 2
8 6 Captain Cash (KY) Gryder A Harty E 10.40 10
9 7 Whizer (CA) Stra K Bradvica L 19.40 4
10 8 Afleet Hopetown (KY) Delgadillo A Capestro P 14.60 3
11 9 Lucky B Lou (CA) Quinonez A Schiewe P 57.90 9
12 10 Legend of My Own (CA) Rosario J Mullins J 2.00 1
14 11 Strong Belief (KY) Baze T West T 3.30 5
SCR – Peeka Buddha (KY)     – –
SCR – Tralee Creek (KY) Arambula P DeLima J – –
SCR – Surprisefor Toulla (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $6.00 $3.20 $2.60
6 – $4.80 $4.00
10 – – $7.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $14.00 (12-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $12.90 (10-6-12)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $177.60 (4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/7/12/1
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $28318.90 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1537.30 (12-6-10-9-14)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $595.00 (12-6-10-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $109.60 (12-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $15.20 (6-12)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $113.40 (9-3/5-4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11540.00 (9-3/5-4-2
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Wednesday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s +

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Crazy Wager                           4/1
#4 Philly Slew                              7/2
#7 Final Journey                           5/1

In his last race on July 20, #1 Crazy Wager was toward the back of the pack then started his run on the turn. But halfway on the bend, he was extremely wide — maybe in the 10 or 11 path — but still earned a respectable 66 Beyer Speed Figure.

Conservatively, I bumped the figure up to a 76, which just might be good enough to win this race if none of the others throws in a monster effort.

Another who has a shot is #4 Philly Slew, who earned a 73 Beyer on April 22. However, in his last race on July 12, Philly Slew could only muster a 66 Beyer after saving ground all the way on the rail.

The Marty Jones-trained #7 Final Journey may be the best betting proposition. This gelding, who is coming off a long layoff for his second lifetime start, has nothing but slow workouts. With no world beaters in here, it seems like a good spot for Jones to spring a surprise.

I will bet $400 to win on #1 Crazy Wager at 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 to win on #7 Final Journey at 2/1 to 9/1.  At 10/1 or more on either, my bet reduces to $100.

Also, if #1 Crazy Wager goes off at 2/1 or less then I will play $200 on #4 Philly Slew at 3/1 or more instead.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

August 12, 2009 — maidenking

64_D0F8F8D9_A7ACD_B1186_72000_3BA864B05_large[1]

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7
2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10
3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9
4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8
5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6
6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1
7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2
9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5
10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3
11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4
12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12
13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11
SCR – De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M – –
SCR – Swingin Jim (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80
7 – $5.60 $4.40
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)
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Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4
2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3
4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1
5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5
6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6
7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40
2 – $4.00 $3.00
3 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

August 9, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Endless Moon                      5/1
#6 Pinstripe Kid                        5/1
#8 Captain Cash                       6/1
#12 Legend of My Own              7/2
#14 Strong Belief                      9/2

This race has a few possible winners and #12 Legend of My Own looks like a strong play at 2-to-1 or more.

This 4-year-old gelding, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is making his eighth start and his fourth at this class. But on June 27, Legend of My Own came off an eight-month layoff  to rally powerfully in a 6-furlong race. He not only has the right running style for this distance, but Legend of My Own also ran a series of Beyer Speed Figures last summer that are fast enough to win this.

A couple of stall doors down, #14 Strong Belief was competitive with Legend of My Own on June 27 when the two were separated by less than a length. However, jockey Christian Santiago Reyes jumps from Strong Belief to ride #6 Pinstripe Kid.

It’s possible Pinstripe Kid is far better than he looks. This gelding ran a 68 Beyer as a 2-year-old last summer and it’s logical that his natural growth  allows him to run in the low 80s now.

Another coming off a long layoff is #8 Captain Cash. Trained by Eoin Harty, this horse has been working out well and showed speed before dumping the jock in his last race in November.

Finally, #3 Endless Moon is a second-time starter that is dropping in class after not disgracing himself in a turf sprint.

I rank the horses this way: #12 Legend of My Own, #6 Pinstripe Kid, #14 Strong Belief, #3 Endless Moon and #8 Captain Cash.

I will bet $300 to win on #12 Legend of My Own at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and $200 on #6 Pinstripe Kid at 2/1 to 9/1. If Legend of My Own drifts to 4/1 to 9/1, then I’ll reduce my wager to $200. If either of them are less than 2/1, then I will replace that individual horse with $150 to win on #14 Strong Belief at 3/1 to 9/1,  or if that one isn’t in the zone then I’ll play $150 on #3 Endless Moon at 5/2 to 7/1.

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Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez — a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year — will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: “(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

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Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 2 — lost $200

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

I did a couple of things right in this race — like laying off the two Doug O’Neill-trained  horses, #5 Moon Over Malibu and #11 Juicy Lucy. These two fillies, who were 7-to-2 and 4-to-1 respectively, have had many chances to win, are usually bet well and have deteriorating form.

I opted, instead, for #10 Artistryandrhythm who was an 8-to-1 shot coming off a layoff of more than a year. This horse’s trainer, Ron Ellis, has a good record with this type of horse and over the years this angle has been profitable.

Artistryandrhythm bounded out of the gate first, which is always a good sign, but ran in the middle of the pack the rest of the way. I also made one major mistake and that was not taking a closer look at the winner, #6 Classy Attraction.

When I checked the early pace with my software, Classy Attraction had the top speed to the quarter mile, which is another money-making angle. In 2008, she was four lengths behind a 20-3/5 second quarter mile and in another race she had the lead with a 21-3/5 second quarter.

But Classy Attraction hadn’t run since May 2008 and I shied away from his low-profile connections of jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez. If she was any good, I thought, why wouldn’t somebody more accomplished be training her?

Others must have overlooked her too, as she wired the field and paid $30.40. In the end,  it looks like Arambula and Martinez got the last laugh.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 2.70 2
2 2 Emba U. T. K. (KY) Stra K Ho H 28.60 6
3 3 Dee Dee’s Flight (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 19.90 8
4 4 Dan’s Morning Sky (CA) Kaenel K Fulmer D 80.00 10
5 5 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 3.80 3
6 6 Classy Attraction (KY) Arambula P Martinez S 14.20 1
7 7 Cisco’s Girl (CA) Scott J Flores F 58.00 11
8 8 With Respect (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 15.80 4
9 9 Sweet Allie Marie (CA) Rosario J Abrams B 4.70 5
10 10 Artistryandrhythm (CA) Santiago Reyes C Ellis R 8.80 7
11 11 Juicy Lucy (CA) Gryder A O’Neill D 4.00 9
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $30.40 $13.20 $8.20
1 – $4.20 $3.20
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $75.90 (6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2928.40 (6-1-5-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $325.20 (6-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $184.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $69.40 (1-6)
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#10 Artistryandrythm                 6/1

This race looks weak for the level, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, yet few horses in the field have run recent races in the 60’s. Yes, trainer Doug O’Neill starts two runners, but #5 Moon Over Malibu lost his last five sprints at less than 4-to-1, and #11 Juicy Lucy was the beaten favorite in her last three.

They are both desperately in need of a win and no doubt have found their correct level — the bottom. Instead of taking another chance on either one of them, I will probably be betting #10 Artistryandrythm, who trainer Ron Ellis is bringing back from a layoff of more than a year.

Over the years, this is the type of horse that hits the winners circle frequently enough to be a long-term money winner for backers. The public is infatuated with Beyer Speed Figures run by recently raced horses and, in general, shies away from those laid up for long periods. To me, that flawed thinking equals $$$.

Trainer Ellis has a good record with this type of animal, and the only thing that concerns me is that most of these layoff winners ran their best after having a race back.

In any event, I will put $200 on #10 Artistryandrhythm at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

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