Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo and up

Possible overlays                Morning line

#5 Storm’n Marisa                      8/1
#9 Mo Cheese                           3/1

Yes, Joel Rosario is the leading rider at the meet. And yes, #8 Princess Beau K made a nice middle move in a 7-1/2 furlong race on May 30 that shows she has the talent to win this one.

But Princess Beau K is also the consensus best bet in the Daily Racing Form, with both Mike Hammersly and Brad Free putting her in bold type. So, I am hoping that the public pounds this filly down below 2/1.

That would help set up a decent price on #9 Mo Cheese. Trained by Rafael Becerra, Mo Cheese ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure as a 2-year-old in December 2008 and followed it up by showing some speed at a mile in January 2009. For her third start, Mo Cheese was dropped from maiden special weight into a claiming sprint where Becerra took her for $40,000 off trainer Doug O’Neill.

Mo Cheese hasn’t run since Feb. 8, 2009, but Becerra has done well over the last few years with this type of maiden. Mo Cheese has the right running style for the distance, and has already earned speed figures that would win many of these low-class events.

Another filly coming off a layoff, #5 Storm’n Marisa looks like she might  enjoy 6-1/2 furlongs based on her decent finish in a 5-1/2 furlong race in December 2009.  This 9-race veteran’s former running style was to go to the front early, but she usually tired in the stretch with that strategy.

In the last few races of her past performances, Storm’n Marisa seemed to ration her energy much better, so she might rate well today. She’s been off since January and has low-percentage connections. But Storm’n Marisa had a bullet workout on July 26 and is a good bet at 10/1 to 19/1.

At odds of 5/2 or more, I will bet $800 to win on #9 Mo Cheese. Also, if #5 Storm’n Marisa’s odds are between 10/1 and 19/1, then I will wager $200 to win on her. But if Storm’n Marisa’s odds are not in the 10/1 to 19/1 zone then I will increase my bet on Mo Cheese to $1,000.

Lastly, if Mo Cheese’s odds are exactly 2/1, then I will reduce my bet on her to $300.

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Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #9 Mo Cheese at 2-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Sexy Melody (KY) Pedroza M Meredith D 17.40 4
2 2 Atta’ Girl (CA) Verenzuela J Polanco M 9.30 3
4 3 Bear River (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 42.70 8
5 4 Storm’n Marisa (KY) Bisono A Chew M 8.70 6
6 5 Dancing Lauren (KY) Bejarano R Mulhall K 8.50 1
7 6 Gavita (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 11.90 7
8 7 Princess Beau K (CA) Rosario J Eurton P 1.50 2
9 8 Mo Cheese (CA) Garcia M Becerra R 2.00 5
SCR Binky’s Sister (CA) John K Kasparoff J
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $19.00 $5.80 $3.40
8 $3.00 $2.40
2 $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $23.10 (6-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $162.00 (2-1-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $815.40 (6-8-2-1)

Results, Del Mar, Friday Race 8 – lost $180

Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed Irish-bred Titus Aurelius for $25,000 on June 4 and won a Maiden $32K claiming race with him

My first thought when I saw the morning line for this race was that the odds for #9 Titus Auerelius, at 5-to-2, needed to be much closer to those of #3 D’oro Dancer, at 9-to-2. 

D’oro Dancer had stamina, speed and decent Beyer Speed Figures. And although Titus Aurelius’ past performances looked OK, it was obvious that he was the morning line favorite because of the glamour connections of jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Doug O’Neill. 

O’Neill claimed Titus Aurelius from Simon Callaghan on June 4 for $25,000 and on June 25 the gelding showed speed before fading in a maiden special weight turf sprint. On Friday, as the horses loaded into the gate, the public saw what I saw and made Titus Aurelius 8-to-5 and D’oro Dancer 2-to-1.   

In this race, Rosario quickly went to the front with Titus Aurelius, who cruised willingly on the lead down the backstretch in this 7-furlong sprint.  D’oro Dancer, who was also running without being asked, got to the flank of Titus Aurelius as the field swang into the turn. 

At the quarter pole, jockey Tyler Baze pushed D’oro Dancer to within a half length of Titus Aurelius and it looked like a stretch duel was forthcoming. However, when Rosario asked Titus Aurelius for more, he kicked away to an easy three-length win. 

I was prepared to put $650 on D’oro Dancer at 5-to-2 or better, but his post time odds were just 2-to-1. Another one of my wagers was to bet #7 Big Wags at 3-to-1 or better, but only if D’oro Dancer was also 7-to-2 or more, which he was not. 

However, I forgot to specify odds for the exotics, which included keying 39-to-1 shot Spinco Bob for third in the trifecta and second in the exacta to D’oro Dancer and Spinco Bob. Those bets cost me $180.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Not in Siberia (CA) Garcia M Ordonez A 12.90 7
2 2 Kim’s Leading Man (CA) Gonzalez A Abrams B 18.90 2
3 3 D’oro Dancer (KY) Baze T Walsh K 2.10 3
4 4 My Last Tycoon (NY) Espinoza V Stute M 10.60 4
6 5 Yvett’s Maar (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 45.90 9
7 6 Big Wags (ON) Bejarano R Glatt M 4.00 6
8 7 Spinco Bob (CA) Pedroza M Velasquez D 39.00 8
9 8 Titus Aurelius (IRE) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.70 1
10 9 Anga (CA) Berrio O Garcia V 20.30 5
SCR Brianville (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Callaghan C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $5.40 $3.60 $2.80
2 $9.80 $5.20
3 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $337.30 (8-2/6-10-5/9)
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $12.50 (6-4/5-9)
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $73.90 (6-10-9)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2633.10 (7 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $2298.40 (9-2-3-4-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $559.00 (9-2-3-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $121.30 (9-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $24.00 (10-9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $138257.00 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $965.60 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $56.80 (2-9)

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1
2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5
3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8
4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9
5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7
6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3
7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6
8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4
9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 $4.00 $3.60
6 $15.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Learn the Sport                        7/2
#5 Nanni the Teaser                       8/1
#8 Boo Too                                   8/1
#9 Remember Mike                         2/1

A 78 Beyer Speed Figure is the median winning number for this class and the only runner close to that is #2 Learn the Sport. This Barry Abrams-trained runner broke slowly in his last at 6 furlongs but came with a strong rail-hugging run to earn a 76 Beyer. He was recently gelded, he should relish the extra half furlong and looks tough.

Trainer Jorge Periban claimed #8 Boo Too on Sept. 30 from Craig Lewis for $22,500 and steps him up the class ladder. Boo Too ran very well on Sept. 10 at Fairplex Park, losing to the a good maiden claimer named Morton Owen. However, something went very wrong in his last as Boo Too finished eleventh. To compete with these, Boo Too will need to regain his best form and then some. One big drawback is that Periban is 0-for-24 when running back first after the claim, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Finally, two second time starters are dropping in class. Both #5 Nanni the Teaser and #9 Remember Mike ran decently in their debuts and have been working out well. If the money shows up, I’m interested.

Betting Scenarios: I will put $300 to win on #2 Learn the Sport at odds of 5/2 to 7/1 only. If Learn the Sport goes off at 8/1 or better, then my wager drops to $100.

Also, I will put $150 to win on #9 Remember Mike at 5/2 to 7/1 only. If that colt falls out of the betting range, then I want $100 to win on #5 Nanni the Teaser at 5/2 to 7/1 instead.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — lost $300

Trainer Carl O'Callahan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

Trainer Carl O'Callaghan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

In July, trainer Carl O’Callaghan sent #12 Brian the Brave to be gelded and when the 3-year-old came back to the races on Sept. 4, the new gelding was a faster, more valuable animal.

In that first comeback race, Brian the Brave ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure while four paths wide on the turn, which was probably his fastest race up until that point.  In the interim, Brian the Brave had two fast workouts which set him up well for Sunday when he broke his maiden at 9-to-1 by running down #11 Launch the Bull.

And Launch the Bull was no slouch. Coming into the race, Launch the Bull exceeded the median Beyer Speed Figure needed to win at this class in his last three starts.

All of Launch the Bull’s three losses were against higher-priced maiden claimers. The one big knock on Launch the Bull, though, is that this Peter Miller-trainee tires late and seems to always get caught at the wire.

Sunday was no different.

The race began with speed ball #6 Jamieson going straight to the front on the backstretch. Both Launch the Bull and Brian the Brave were stalking the pace from about a length behind. And midway on the turn, both surged to the lead as a team.

At the top of the lane, Launch the Bull pulled away from Brian the Brave by a length, but just like in his past races, Launch the Bull couldn’t hold the lead and Brian the Brave nailed him at the wire.

The win was just the third of the year for trainer Carl O’Callaghan, who moonlights by performing Irish music in Los Angeles and San Diego area bars. By clicking on his name, you can check his music website or here for his stable site.

I bet $300 on Launch the Bull at 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Adebayor (KY) Garcia M O’Neill D 4.20 5
3 2 Heisman U (KY) Rivera C Stute G 28.70 6
4 3 Fun in the Park (CA) Arambula P Periban J 103.50 9
6 4 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 3.50 8
7 5 Escaping the Storm (FL) Bejarano R Hess, Jr. R 4.20 3
9 6 Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 23.70 7
10 7 Eminent Honor (KY) Iniguez S Fernandez V 68.90 10
11 8 Launch the Bull (KY) Santiago Reyes C Miller P 2.00 2
12 9 Brian the Brave (KY) Quinonez A O’Callaghan C 9.40 1
13 10 Father Grumpy (CA) Rosario J Gutierrez J 15.10 4
SCR Halo’s Limit (KY) Olivarez M Jimenez J
SCR Louie Tre (FL)    
SCR Freetoagoodhome (CA) Valdez F Wicker L
SCR Tumbling Dice Man (CA) Atkinson P Pender M
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $20.80 $8.00 $6.20
11 $3.40 $2.80
7 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $7.10 (10-2-7/8)

Results, Santa Anita Wednesday Race 9 — lost $550

Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

At 77-to-1, it should come as no surprise that Spartan Jet’s only two past performance lines were ugly. In both races, he broke slowly, made no move on the turn and had no rally in the stretch. 

But on Wednesday, Spartan Jet broke alertly and virtually led this 12-horse field wire-to-wire, lighting up the toteboard with a $157.60 win payoff.

Before being awarded the official victory, however, owner-trainer Juan Lopez had to sweat out a claim of foul by jockey Martin Pedroza. Pedroza, who ironically rode Spartan Jet in his first two starts, claimed that his mount Red Door Drive was impeded when rider Kyle Kaenel allowed Spartan Jet to swerve out approaching midstretch.

Red Door Drive, trained by Bob Baffert, had last raced in September 2008 and nine of his 10 lifetime races were on the turf. In Wednesday’s race, Red Door Drive moved from last place on the turn to a good stalking position about two lengths away from the leaders.

As the field moved into the stretch, Pedroza tried to take Red Door Drive outside of Spartan Jet, but that horse unexpectedly swerved suddenly, so Pedroza went inside. Red Door Drive had plenty of time to pass Spartan Jet but — perhaps because he was inside of him — Red Door Drive never went by and lost by a head.

At 7/2, I bet $300 on Red Door Drive, wagered $150 more on #8 Good Newsman at 3/1 and another $100 on 23-to-1 shot #10 Little Heater.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Irish Weis Man (CA) Quinonez A Abrams B 37.10 7
2 2 Panda (CA) Santiago Reyes C Van Berg J 12.70 6
3 3 Red Door Drive (KY) Pedroza M Baffert B 3.80 2
4 4 Whizer (CA) Valdez F Bradvica L 28.80 10
5 5 Trueno (CA) Vergara O Capitaine N 16.50 4
6 6 Spartan Jet (KY) Delgadillo A Lopez J 77.80 1
7 7 Smokenomore (CA) Migliore R Spawr W 6.90 8
8 8 Good Newsman (KY) Espinoza V Hendricks D 3.30 3
9 9 Markus D. (CA) Talamo J Jones M 22.80 9
10 10 Little Heater (CA) Garcia M Mullins J 22.90 12
11 11 De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M 7.60 5
13 12 Boo Too (KY) Rosario J Lewis C 3.40 11
SCR Glorious Mon (CA)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $157.60 $76.60 $29.80
3 $6.00 $3.60
8 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $496.30 (6-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $932.20 (2-3-6)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $15769.00 (3-2-3-6)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $47870.00 (8-3-2-3-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $3271.80 (9 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $83656.60 (6-3-8-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $2585.40 (6-3-8)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $522.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $37620.80 (3-8-3-2-3-6)

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#6 Jamieson                                         7/2
#7 Escaping the Storm                          4/1
#11 Launch the Bull                               3/1

On July 24, trainer Peter Miller brought #11 Launch the Bull back from a 10-month layoff and this gelding has had nothing but bad luck ever since. In all three of his races since, Launch the Bull had the lead and appeared to be headed to victory, but was nailed nearing the wire — one time by a horse that came again on the rail.

In his last five starts, Launch the Bull earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 73 to 89 range. So, considering that the median winning number for these $25,000 claiming horses is a 74, Launch the Bull figures to be tough to beat unless, of course, he’s simply a notorious hanger.

Another horse that could also run huge is #6 Jamieson. This 4-year-old stayed away from the track for more than a year, but almost won his June 6 comebacker. He showed good speed that day before tiring, however on Sept. 2 Jamieson dashed a first quarter mile that was some five lengths quicker than his June 6 race.

It was a colossal improvement, but Jamieson staggered to the wire that day, too, and lost by a nose while earning a 63 Beyer. Sooner or later he’ll put it all together and today just might be the day.

Finally, Escaping the Storm is eligible to improve as he’s also had a few races back after a 9-month rest.

I will put $300 to win on #11 Launch the Bull at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $150 at odds of 4/1 or higher. If Launch the Bull drifts above 7/2, then I will play $200 to win on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2. 

Also, regardless of Launch the Bull’s odds, I’ll put $150 to win on Jamieson at 4/1 or higher.

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