Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4
2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3
4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1
5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5
6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6
7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40
2 – $4.00 $3.00
3 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)
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Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:34 pm post time

March 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#3 Temerity                                   4/1
#5 Brian the Brave                           15/1

Garrett Gomez takes over for jockey David Flores on #8 Unionize, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite. Trainer Clifford Sise had this horse ready to win in his Dec. 28 debut, as Unionize  earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure but he couldn’t catch Point Encounter.

If, for some reason, Unionize isn’t at his best then #3 Temerity has a good chance to upset him. Ron Ellis brought this colt back from a six-month layoff on Feb. 7  to run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Those races are dominated by early speed so this horse was at a disadvantage, but now fits well at 6-1/2 furlongs.

Finally, #5 Brian the Brave, a first-time starter, has a couple of swift workouts and may be a play at a price. Since I had never heard of Brian the Brave’s trainer, Carl O’Callaghan, I plugged his name into Google. I didn’t find much out about his training abilities, but discovered this native of County Clare is also a musician that spends his evenings belting out the Irish favorites at Arcadia-area bars.

I am guessing that “Irish Carl” works for Patrick Gallagher because Gallagher is the regular trainer for Super Horse, Inc., which owns Brian the Brave.

At the betting window, I will take $200 to win on #3 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $150 to win at 4/1 and up. Also, I want a $150 win bet on #5 Brian the Brave at 5/1 to 19/1 only.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s, Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , , . 2 Comments »
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