Year end report — MK betting yields $1.28 for $1. Blogging suspended until Del Mar begins July 22

For the last year, betting on this site yielded $1.28 for every $1 wagered or $126 per race

For the last year, betting on this site yielded $1.28 for every $1 wagered or $126 per race

On June 25, 2008, I began making maiden selections on this blog for sprint races on the Southern California Thoroughbred racing circuit. I started off with an imaginary $50,000 bankroll and wagered almost all of it on maiden races, but also played the Triple Crown series.

My immediate goal was to win my way to $100,000 by June 25, 2009, but about halfway through I could see that my goal was unrealistic unless I either drastically increased my wagers or the number of races I played.

I started out betting every maiden race throughout the week, but needed to take a break after Del Mar because I fell behind in my record keeping. When I came back for the Santa Anita meet, I continued betting as many races as time allowed, but shortly afterward cut back to weekends only.

For the year, I won 42 of the 133 races that I wagered on,  or 31.5 percent. I bet $59,715 and collected $76,495 for a profit of $16,780. My average race bet was $448 and my average payoff on the races I won was $1,821. Over the 133 races, I made $1.28 for every $1 bet for an average yield of $126 for each race wagered on.

I showed a profit in eight months — June 2008, July, August, September, December, January, March and April. And I lost money in three months — February, May and June 2009.

Right now, my databases are about four months behind and I need to catch up. So, I plan to spend the next few weeks updating my information so I can be ready for the Del Mar meet, which starts on July 22.

That means I won’t be blogging about Southern California maidens until opening day at Del Mar. Good luck, and I will talk to you then.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — lost $700

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Four horses looked like they could win this race, and although they all ran well, second-time starter #12 I Want My Money was clearly the best.

Trainer Jeff Mullins, whose Hollywood Park win rate is hovering around 30 percent, dropped I Want My Money in class from a $50,000 maiden claimer where he debuted on May 21. In that race, I Want My Money was obviously not at his best as jockey Martin Garcia hustled him the whole way, but could only muster a 68 Beyer Speed Figure.

But I Want My Money was working out right along and he had a fast drill on June 6, which set him up well for this win at 7-to-2.

The race began as jockey Tyler Baze shot #5 Gifted Student to the front. This John Sadler runner hadn’t raced since Oct. 13, but Sadler excels at getting horses like this gelding into the winner’s circle. Gifted Student was challenged at the top of the stretch by #14 Quality Plus, another second-timer who had the desirable combination of early speed and the best last race Beyer Speed Figure.

But Gifted Student shook Quality Plus off at the top of the lane to pull ahead by a length. However, Quality Plus fought right back, closing the gap.

Their stretch duel was interrupted by I Want My Money who came blasting up between horses and blew them both away to win by 2-1/2 lengths. Born to Cus, an improving Doug O’Neill runner making his third start at 7-to-1, ran late and won a three-way photo for second.

I put $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at 6/1. Also, I had $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus, whose odds were 3.0-to-1, but if he’d been bet to 2.9-to-1 instead then my $200 would have shifted to the winner #12 I Want My Money.

I also had $100 to win on #13 Born to Cus.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Truly a Delight (CA) Pedroza M Bernstein D 17.50 8
2 2 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 6.70 9
4 3 Street Premier (KY) Arambula P Guillot E 59.00 11
5 4 Gifted Student (CA) Baze T Sadler J 6.30 4
6 5 Turbo Energy (CA) Baze M Barocio L 12.30 5
7 6 Deification (KY) Talamo J Hofmans D 10.50 13
8 7 Santi Santi Santi (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S 11.80 7
9 8 Ryland (CA) Delgadillo A Yakteen T 101.60 6
10 9 Illusive Dealer (CA) Sandoval D Fama D 82.00 12
11 10 Tralee Creek (KY) Valdez F DeLima J 74.80 10
12 11 I Want My Money (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 3.90 1
13 12 Born to Cus (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.10 2
14 13 Quality Plus (PA) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 3.00 3
SCR Valentine Gift (WA)    
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $9.80 $5.20 $3.60
13 $7.80 $5.00
14 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (12-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $713

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $300

bio_PatrickBiancone[1]

Trainer Patrick Biancone is winning with more than 20 percent of his HollyPark runners

The only thing I hate more than watching 7-to-5 shots win races, is when they’re followed home by 2-to-1 second choices.

Who likes that? Even horseplayers clutching $4.80 win tickets and $7.30 exactas squack and humbly make jokes at the payout windows about how little they won.

But these short-priced winners need to come in from time to time to feed the confidence of the people who wager on them. That way, the rest of us can get better prices when chalk players use their winnings to pound the next losing favorite.

That brings me to this race where the Patrick Biancone-trained #11 Zip Quick, 7/5, stalked the pace, went three-wide on the turn and accelerated away from the field in the stretch. Inside of him, was the 2-to-1 first time starter #6 Alfarabi who rushed up on the rail to the lead, but couldn’t hold off Zip Quick.

All of the first-time starters that I was considering went off at higher odds than my 20-to-1 maximum. However, second-time starters #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley fell into my odds range, so I was able to wager $150 on each.

I was hoping that these colts learned something in their first starts and were ready to uncork something huge in this race. But nothing unexpected happened, which is why the exacta money covered little more than a hot dog and a Coke at the snack bar.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
4 1 Zero Manners (KY) Pedroza M Tekos, Jr. A 28.60 10
5 2 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 8.50 3
6 3 Alfarabi (KY) Rosario J Harty E 2.30 2
8 4 Ranger Heartley (KY) Sorenson D Hebert J 7.40 8
1 5 Amore Di Aleyna (FL) Arambula P La Croix D 7.60 7
9 6 Saarface (KY) Flores D O’Neill D 18.10 6
10 7 Deputy Max (KY) Blanc B Koriner B 24.50 5
11 8 Zip Quik (NY) Talamo J Biancone P 1.40 1
1A 9 Summers At Delmar (KY) Solis A La Croix D 7.60 4
12 10 Google Me (CA) Scott J Zamora R 99.40 9
SCR Luv Dragon (KY)    
SCR Sterling Outlook (KY)    
SCR Paddy’s Prayer (FL) Bejarano R O’Callaghan C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $4.80 $3.00 $2.40
6 $3.20 $3.00
5 $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.30 (11-6)
$1

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

When I took a look at this race, two horses coming off of recent layoffs seemed to have strong chances.

Trainer Mike Puype was bringing back #11 Mar Fina from a one-year vacation, which Puype routinely does both skillfully and profitably. But the morning line on Mar Fina was 7-to-2 and when I looked at the tote board it became clear that Mar Fina probably was not going to run well, as she was an ice cold 9-to-1 going into the gate.

The other filly racing back off a year-long break was #12 Veranda Cafe. Horses running in their second lifetime starts after long stretches away from the races are usually excellent bets — as long as they are at least 2-to-1 and no more than 9-to-1. The price on Veranda Cafe, however, was crushed to 3-to-2 by the betting public, so I could not wager on her either.

That left me with a $150 bet on #3 Sister Lucy who was coming out of two quarter horse races at Los Alamitos. Also, she ran a winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class when she finished third on Oct. 19 in a maiden special weight race.

In the race, Sister Lucy shot to the lead on the backstretch and Veranda Cafe rode her flank while pressing the pace less than a length away.

At the eighth pole, Veranda Cafe took the lead and was three-lengths clear of Kami D B C with a sixteenth of a mile to run. But Veranda Cafe tired badly and faded so fast that she not only lost the race, but she didn’t even hit the board.

Winning was Kami D B C, who was making her twelfth start, but ten of those were in maiden special weight races.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Rio Revelde (CA) Rodriguez N Rodriguez S 188.00 12
2 2 Kami D B C (CA) Delgadillo A Jones M 2.70 1
3 3 Sister Lucy (CA) Sorenson D Breuer D 9.40 4
4 4 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Couton J Dupuis J 150.60 7
5 5 Annie’s Loaded (CA) Espinoza V Walsh K 13.50 8
6 6 Girl of Mine (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 38.40 2
7 7 Nantucket Mist (KY) Quinonez A Sadler J 16.10 6
8 8 Irish Cowgal (CA) Garcia M O’Callaghan C 94.80 11
9 9 Terra Bella (CA) Flores D Rickerd P 51.40 9
10 10 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 6.00 3
11 11 Mar Fina (KY) Talamo J Puype M 9.30 10
12 12 Veranda Cafe (KY) Rosario J Miller P 1.50 5
SCR Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D
SCR Patiently (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S
SCR Bombing Two (CA) Scott J DeLima J
SCR A Beauty in Black (CA) Baze M Semkin S
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $7.40 $4.40 $3.20
6 $24.60 $11.60
10 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $86.90 (2-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2716.80 (2-6-10-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $657.90 (2-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $13.40 (4-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $87.80 (2-6)

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 Gifted Student                     6/1
#12 I Want My Money               9/2
#13 Born to Cus                       10/1
#14 Quality Plus                       7/2

John Sadler, who trains #5 Gifted Student, has a very good record when bringing older maiden claimers back from long layoffs, especially when they are dropping in class. Gifted Student showed good speed in his debut on Oct. 13, as he was bet to 5/1 and had the lead after a half a mile versus eight others.

Jockey Tyler Baze, a 14 percent rider, is aboard. Baze, however, won with 23 percent of his last 103 mounts for Sadler, so he turns into Garrett Gomez when riding Sadler’s horses. Gifted Student is 6-to-1 on the morning line, but judging from Sadler’s other layoff winners I expect him to be bet to less than 4-to-1.

Breaking from the far outside, #14 Quality Plus is another second-time starter who had the lead for a half mile in his debut. This horse has many things to like: It has good early speed, competent connections and ran a decent Beyer Speed Figure last time. But it seems like the type of horse that will be bet below 3-to-1, which will likely cause me to try to beat it.

Jeff Mullins is one of those Southern California trainers that wins whenever he wants to and can never be totally eliminated. His runner #12 I Want My Money has been working out well and is worth a bet at the right price. The same goes for #13 Born to Cus, who Doug O’Neill bred, owns and trains. Born to Cus adds blinkers and makes a positive jockey switch from Alonso Quinonez to Joel Rosario. With older maiden claimers like these, O’Neill seems to run them into form rather than trying to win early, and Born to Cus seems to be going in the right direction.

I will bet $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 only. Also, I will take $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus at 3/1 or more, but if he is bet below that then I’ll put the $200 on #12 I Want My Money instead, also at 3/1 or better.

Finally, if #13 Born to Cus goes off at 6/1 or better, then I’ll put $100 on him.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — post time 5:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year-olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#3 Paddy’s Prayer                 5/1
#4 Zero Manners                   20/1
#5 Seattle Ruler                    12/1
#8 Ranger Heartley                6/1
#1 Amore Di Aleyna                6/1
#10 Deputy Max                    20/1
#1A Summers at Delmar        6/1

My strategy is to play against #6 Alfarabi, #11 Zip Quick and most likely #3 Paddy’s Prayer. According to the morning line maker, these three colts all figure to be bet from 9/5 to 5/1 and my figures show that these types of horses are terrible wagers at low odds in this type of race.

Instead, I will spread and try to catch a price. None of the second-time starters except #11 Zip Quick ran too strong of a Beyer Speed Figure in their debuts. Mike Harrington trains #5 Seattle Ruler and that one has the quickest first quarter mile, however several of the others either hopped at the start or were off slowly in their first races.

Many times, horses who had trouble at the start in their debuts will comeback and run much better with a good break. First-time starters #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners and #10 Deputy Max look like decent wagers, but only if their odds are right.

I will bet $150 to win on both #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley at 4/1 or more, and any of these first-time starters but only at odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners, #10 Deputy Max and #12 Google Me.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#3 Sister Lucy                                   12/1
#11 Mar Fina                                     7/2
#12 Veranda Cafe                              3/1

Without a doubt, the filly with the best early speed is #3 Sister Lucy. In fact, her last two races were 870 yard quarter horse dashes at Los Alamitos.  And she has already run well enough to win at this level. On Oct. 19, Sister Lucy ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight event, which is significant because the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 67.

Two fillies coming off recent layoffs — #11 Mar Fina and #12 Veranda Cafe — also have some things to like. Coincidentally, both horses lost to monsters in their previous races, which were both in June 2008. Mar Fina ran into Rachel Alexandra when she broke her maiden and Veranda Cafe was defeated by Evita Argentina.

Trainer Mike Puype, who saddles Mar Fina, has recently excelled at bringing back second and third time starters from long vacations.

And horses who look like Veranda Cafe are excellent wagers when they are bet down a bit.

I will bet $250 to win on #11 Mar Fina at odds of 2/1 to 5/1. But if Mar Fina doesn’t fall into that range, or if #12 Veranda Cafe is a higher price than Mar Fina, then I will bet the $250 on Veranda Cafe instead as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Sister Lucy at 9/2 or more.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficut thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficult thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Darrell Vienna is a bettors’ best friend. He is low profile, has a decent winning percentage, and his horses pay well when they hit the wire first.

And that’s no accident. Vienna, who has a psychology degree from UCLA, was profiled in the DRF’s Simulcast Weekly on April 19 where I learned that he trains all of his horses on Santa Anita’s dirt training track, which is inside the turf course.

On the SA training track, the times are often slower than those on the main track and fewer horses work out for each distance. When Vienna’s inexperienced runners, or those coming off layoffs, show up at the races their published training track workouts look slow and odd.

And that’s a good thing because horseplayers not only don’t like playing unproven horses, but they like unproven ones with all slow workouts even less. That converts easily to cash for Vienna and his followers: In the Simulcast Weekly, it showed that Vienna had long-term money making statistics in 18 of 25 categories where he had 10 starters or more.

Who knew that Vienna’s psychology degree would be this useful at the horse track?

In Sunday’s second race, Vienna trained first time starter #11 Good Night Gyrene, who was ridden by Garrett Gomez. First off all, debuting horses in races for older maidens are generally very bad longterm bets. At odds of less than 20-to-1, they win only five percent of the time.

However, even though Good Night Gyrene had all slow-looking training track workouts, she must have impressed Vienna otherwise he could not have convinced Gomez to ride. Over the last 2-1/2 years, Gomez has only ridden two older maiden claimers in their debut races, according to my records.

So the only reason Gomez would be on Good Night Gyrene was because Vienna, who is also an attorney, persuaded Gomez agent Ron Anderson that the horse was going to win.

Anderson and Gomez do well with first time starters when they getting some betting action. Gomez has won with 12 of 50 debuters over the last 2-1/2 years at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 for a return of $1.43 for every $1 bet.

So in retrospect, the evidence was there for Good Night Gyrene’s win, which paid $17.80. The keys were knowing that 1.) Vienna is cagey 2.) Gomez is very selective about the debuters he climbs aboard and 3.) Gomez performs well when the first timers he’s riding are bet below 10-to-1.

So why didn’t I have it? Because I almost automatically throw out all first-time starters in races for older maidens because I save a lot of money that way. However, some trainers are so good that they can break the rules — and maybe I am starting to see that Vienna is one of those.

Instead, I played $300 to win on #1 Brilliant Response who had the lead for a while and lost a photo finish for second place.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Brilliant Response (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.60 3
2 2 Itsakiss (CA) Couton J Locke T 52.20 7
4 3 Unusual Treat (CA) Baze M Ivory J 42.10 6
5 4 Hannah’s Moment (CA) Baze T Periban J 5.00 8
6 5 Raining Money (CA) Flores D Vargas J 44.30 5
7 6 Youknowwhatilike (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 8.30 9
8 7 Mom’s Gift (CA) Charlton C Montes D 119.40 11
9 8 Angel of Mystery (CA) Rosario J Marquez A 4.90 2
10 9 Warrens Stormymoon (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 54.60 10
11 10 Good Night Gyrene (CA) Gomez G Vienna D 7.90 1
12 11 Lady Alex (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 2.70 4
SCR Terra Bella (CA) Navarro D Rickerd P
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $17.80 $7.80 $4.60
9 $7.40 $4.40
1 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $53.80 (11-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $711.00 (11-9-1-12)
$1.00 Trifecta

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $200

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

In her second lifetime race on April 4, #5 Coatcheck Girl blasted out of the gate to be just a head off the pace in a field of 13 maiden claimers. She battled the whole way and was never more than a length away from the lead until the very end when she lost by two.

That race showed Coatcheck Girl could run some, as according to my pace ratings, her April 4 race was the quickest first quarter mile of any of the runners in Saturday’s tenth.

But having the quickest first quarter, as I’ve found out by observation, doesn’t necessarily mean she would get the lead. However, it does strongly suggest that she will likely put it all together in the near future and run well for the whole race.

Usually, I will bet a horse like this at 3/1 or more, but since other angles and contenders presented themselves, I bumped her minimum acceptable odds up to 6-to-1.

And for that I paid the price, as Coatcheck Girl sat off the early pace and came storming home to win by 3-1/4 lengths while paying $11.60.

I ended up wagering $200 on #1 Bouncer, who was coming off a long layoff for trainer Gary Mandella and got some betting action. I love that type of horse too, but the problem with a 40-percent angle is that 60 percent of the time you lose.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bouncer (KY) Talamo J Mandella G 3.90 6
2 2 Xtraordinary (TX) Baze M Mollica M 7.30 3
3 3 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 55.10 10
4 4 Lion Princess (KY) Rosario J West T 3.40 4
5 5 Coatcheck Girl (KY) Garcia M Marquez A 4.80 1
6 6 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 65.20 2
7 7 Miss Reyna (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Gonzalez S 108.30 8
8 8 Alisa’s Windstorm (CA) Gavica G Martin, Jr. F 182.90 13
9 9 Flash Dance (CA) Solis A Becerra R 6.70 9
10 10 Metallic Waters (CA) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.90 11
11 11 Roomantic (LA) Vergara O Hajek I 87.10 12
12 12 Aislebebarbie (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 65.70 5
13 13 Warren’s Dancer (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 103.10 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $11.60 $6.20 $4.80
6 $41.40 $16.60
2 $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $223.20 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo and up, F

Possible overlays               Morning line

#1 Brilliant Response                  3/1
#5 Hannah’s Moment                  6/1
#9 Angel of Mystery                   6/1
#12 Lady Alex                           7/2

Jockey Rafael Bejarano chooses to keep the mount on #1 Brilliant Response after that one ran poorly coming off a nine-month layoff on May 23.  The filly, who is trained by Carla Gaines, has positive long-term angles going for it if betting action shows up.

Also, Gaines’ is only a 12 percent trainer this year, but she wins at 29 percent over the last two years when Bejarano rides.

Two second-time starters look good at the right price. Both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex have been working out well and they ran decently in their debuts.

Finally, #5 Hannah’s Moment deserves a chance because she has the kind of good early speed that wins at 6 furlongs.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $300 on #1 Brilliant Response. If she falls out of the betting range, then I will put $150 on #5 Hannah’s Moment at 3/1 or higher, and $200 on both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays             Morning line

#1 Bouncer                         5/1
#2 Xtraordinary                   6/1
#4 Lion Princess                  5/1
#5 Coatcheck Girl                9/2
#6 Kaylie’s Joy                    20/1
#9 Flash Dance                    5/1
#10 Metallic Waters            7/2

This is a very competitive race and as usual it’s important to get a good price on any of the contenders.

Making her third lifetime start, #10 Metallic Waters is trained by Bob Baffert, who drops her in class after she showed a bit of speed against maiden special weight company in the spring. On the rail, #1 Bouncer is also dropping and she’s coming off a seven-month layoff.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 68 and #9 Flash Dance has run two of her last races within four points of that.  Other runners like #2 Xtraordinary, #4 Lion Princess and #5 Coatcheck Girl have recently run well and they can all win under the right circumstances.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $200 on #1 Bouncer.  But if Bouncer is not in that range, then instead I will play $200 on #10 Metallic Waters at 5/2 to 5/1 only.

If neither of those two horses fall into their odds zone, then I will put $200 on any of the following horses: #2 Xtraordinary at 7/1 to 12/1, #4 Lion Princess at 5/1 to 12/1, #5 Coatcheck Girl at 6/1 to 12/1 and #9 Flash Dance at 5/1 to 12/1.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $400

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

This was a two-horse race from the bell.

Trained by Howard Zucker, #6 Jamieson hadn’t run since March 2008 and was dropping from maiden special weight where he showed speed.

Breaking next door was #7 Dirt Diver who ran a winning race in his March 25 debut, then went very wide and steadied in his second race.

In this race, Jamieson, the 2-to-1 favorite, went right to the lead and was pulling on jockey Tyler Baze while holding a two-length advantage down the backstretch. Dirt Diver sat in second and seemed to be going easier for Rosario.

On the turn, Dirt Diver came within a length of Jamieson, but the favorite kicked away by two lengths at the top of the lane and appeared to be home free. But Rosario and Dirt Diver never stopped working.

Jamieson weakened a bit, and when he did, Dirt Diver went by him and got the money.

When looking at this race, I gave both Jamieson and Dirt Diver good shots to win. But I ended up with $400 on Jamieson and was only going to bet Dirt Diver if Jamieson’s odds sank below 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Atlantic Victory (CA) Garcia M McAnally R 8.70 9
2 2 Fire Scout (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 9.00 5
3 3 Easy Plunder (CA) Cedeno A Capitaine N 73.20 12
4 4 Warrens Doc Mayes (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 88.30 10
5 5 Reiterate (CA) Martin G Rosales R 51.80 13
6 6 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.00 2
7 7 Dirt Diver (CA) Rosario J Aguirre P 4.90 1
8 8 El Noche (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 14.60 8
9 9 My Number One (KY) Scott J Wingfield R 99.40 11
10 10 Bradytomoss (NY) Gryder A Kitchingman A 13.60 7
11 11 Bonkersforbinkers (CA) Sorenson D Kasparoff J 10.80 3
12 12 Seeyainthefunnies (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 76.50 6
13 13 Sovereign Lord (CA) Vergara O Moreno H 4.00 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.80 $5.20 $3.60
6 $3.60 $3.00
11 $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.80 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $78.40 (1-2-7)
$1.00 Pick

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

In a maiden claiming $25,000 sprint like this one, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is a 71. And in seven of #1 Scibelli’s last 10 races he’s exceeded that speed rating.

So it was no surprise to see him win by 1-1/2 lengths, going wire-to-wire at 6-to-5.  It appears that trainer Bob Hess, Jr. grew impatient with this gelding as he ran 12 times for maiden special weight and his odds were above 4-to-1 only one time.

Throughout Scibelli’s 14-race  maiden career, where he’s now earned $88,300, he finished second six times and third on three other occasions. On Saturday, it was time for a win so Hess dropped to the bottom rung and got it.

I was prepared to bet Scibelli, but his odds were too low. So I instead went for new gelding #11 Downtown Banker at 6/1 and #7 Ask George at 7/2 — losing a total of $300 in the process.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Scibelli (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 1.20 1
2 2 Astoria Renter (CA) Quinonez A Dunham D 30.50 5
3 3 Reckless Capote (KY) Baze M Periban J 13.10 4
4 4 Scofield Barracks (CA) Solis A Headley B 5.10 2
5 5 Caki (CA) Cedeno A Soto A 105.70 12
6 6 Sherry’s Reddy (CA) Scott J Aguayo V 24.90 7
7 7 Ask George (CA) Baze T Mulhall K 3.50 3
8 8 Dance to the Storm (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 81.70 11
9 9 Crestline (CA) Martin G Wingfield R 154.40 10
10 10 Runinfromthedeputy (CA) Delgadillo A Capitaine N 82.10 9
11 11 Downtown Banker (FL) Blanc B Chew M 6.80 6
12 12 Rio Romeo (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 17.50 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $3.20 $2.80
4 $5.40 $3.40
7 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.50 (1-4)
$1.00 Superfecta

From a sure Hall of Famer to rode “like a bug boy.” America turns its back on Borel after he loses Belmont

Kent Desormeaux celebrates winning the Belmont Stakes aboard Summer Bird

Kent Desormeaux celebrates winning the Belmont Stakes aboard Summer Bird

What a difference a race makes.

Leading up to Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, the racing world spent five weeks genuflecting before the great Calvin Borel. Racing observers loved the way he captured the Kentucky Derby with his rail ride on 50-to-1 shot Mine That Bird, and they also admired his savvy decision to jump off the Derby champion and onto Preakness-winning filly Rachel Alexandra.

Borel’s fame skyrocketed, as trainers and analysts heaped credit on him for his outstanding Triple Crown rides. Writers called for the jockey to be inducted into the Hall of Fame and the rider entertained America with stints on the “Tonight Show” and the “Late Show with Dave Letterman.”

But fame is fleeting.

In Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, Borel made a huge move from the backstretch to the top of the lane aboard Mine That Bird. He was poised to become the first jockey ever to win all three Triple Crown races riding two different horses.

But at the quarter pole it seemed that the grueling three-race Derby-Preakness-Belmont schedule caught up with Mine That Bird. Or maybe, running the 1-1/2 mile-Belmont distance was just not this gelding’s thing.

In any event, Mine That Bird was gassed.

As Borel pleaded with the Bird to pass tiring pace setter Durkirk, anybody watching the stretch run could see that the other Bird — Summer Bird — was the only horse left with any legs. Desormeaux had Summer Bird rolling. He blew by both Dunkirk and Mine That Bird with 100 yards to go and crossed the wire 2 -3/4 lengths in front.

Right afterward, television analysts, and even trainer Chip Woolley, pointed fingers at Calvin Borel. They said he moved Mine That Bird too early and that’s why the 6-to-5 favorite lost the race.

In the New York Post, writer Ed Fountaine summed it up this way: “Did Calvin’s sudden celebrity, his guest spots on Jay Leno and David Letterman, go to his head? Renowned for his work ethic, Borel spent Belmont week sightseeing in Manhattan, not taking a single mount to get acquainted with Belmont Park, a track he had just ridden over seven times before.

“Then, after guaranteeing victory all week, he rode 6-5 favorite Mine That Bird like a bug boy. Abandoning the golden rail, he launched a premature move wide around the far turn and ran out of gas in the final furlong.”

Rode like a bug boy? Ouch. And just last week Borel was a sure Hall of Famer.

Yep, it looks like America’s short love affair with Borel is over. Put a fork in it. It’s done.

When gamblers lose big money at short odds — especially when the rider guarantees victory — they will turn on that jockey. Horseplayers can be unforgiving, and some are downright nasty. Just ask any jockey about the crude language they hear when unsaddling losing favorites at any race track in America, and they’ll tell you.

When I looked at the Belmont, Mine That Bird didn’t look much better than some of the other horses and, at 2-to-1 on the morning line, he offered absolutely no value. The 1-1/2 mile Belmont is a tricky distance because the pace is so slow and in the recent past this race has ended with many unforeseen outcomes.

I spread my bets out over four horses at good prices that appeared to have the sustained running style that would work at 1-1/2 miles. And my runners had some of the best jockey talent in the country aboard: Chocolate Candy, 9/1, Garrett Gomez; Dunkirk, 9/2, John Velazquez; Mr. Hot Stuff, 22/1, Edgar Prado; and Flying Private, 17/1, Julien Leparoux.

At 11/1, Summer Bird looked OK too. When looking at his past performances, I added a few points to the 99 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in the Kentucky Derby to account for his wide trip, but my mistake was not giving Summer Bird enough weight for his potential to improve in just his fifth start.

I think spreading out my wagers against Mine That Bird was the right thing to do. But the one problem with betting four horses in a race, is that when they all lose you need to think up nasty things to shout at four jockeys in the unsaddling area instead of only one.

And that’s the real challenge.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Summer Bird rallies to win The Belmont Stakes

Must be Belmont Day because Ernie’s singing again

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:11 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Atlantic Victory                8/1
#2 Fire Scout                       9/2
#3 Reiterate                        15/1
#6 Jamieson                         7/2
#7 Dirt Diver                         6/1
#8 El Noche                          8/1

Howard Zucker trains #6 Jamieson and if he has this colt at his best off a year layoff then this race will be over very quickly. Jaimeson showed good speed in February of 2008 when he missed by a neck in a maiden claiming $40,000 contest. These days, he’s showing nothing but slow workouts, but Zucker may have intentionally kept things at a snail’s pace to keep away pari-mutuel attention on race day.

Another coming off a recent layoff is #2 Fire Scout, who showed early speed on April 29 before fading in the stretch. Trainer Brian Koriner switches jockeys to Joe Talamo, and together they have an outstanding record. In 2008-09, the Koriner-Talamo team combined for 32 wins out of 141 runners, or 23 percent. Betting all 141 runners yielded $1.24 for every $1 wagered. 

Two recently raced maidens who could hit the wire first are #1 Atlantic Victory and #7 Dirt Diver. Atlantic Victory would need to improve by only a length or two off his April 2 Beyer Speed Figure of 66 to win, while Dirt Diver’s debut might be good enough to get the job done.

Longshot possibilities include second-time starter #8 El Noche, who popped out of the gate first in a 7 furlong race on May 16 and he adds blinkers today. Also, low-profile trainer Richard Rosales saddles first timer #5 Reiterate. Rosales doesn’t win many, but when he does the tote board lights up like a Christmas tree.

I will bet $400 on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $300 at 4/1 to 9/1. Also, I’ll take $250 on #2 Fire Scout at 2/1 to 5/1 only.

If either Jamieson or Fire Scout is bet below 2/1, then I will substitute $150 to win on #7 Dirt Diver at 7/2 or greater. Also, only if Jamieson or Fire Scout are below 2/1, I will take $50 longshot plays on #5 Reiterate and #8 El Noche at 6/1 or more.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3yo’s and up

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Scibelli                                3/1
#7 Ask George                          4/1
#11 Downtown Banker                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is a 71 and #1 Scibelli has exceeded that in seven of his last 10 races.

So what is he doing in here?

This horse has earned $79,300 so far and it seems that the owners want to sell him because he was entered for $22,500 rather than $25,000.  If he wins and gets claimed, the owners would get $22,500 plus the $9,000 winner’s share of the purse, which would get them their $100,000 purchase price back, plus $10,000.

Scibelli’s morning line is 3-to-1, but with all of those high Beyer figures showing I believe the public will bet him down to at least 2-to-1. If he’s healthy, this horse will win easily, however he’s also lost nine straight races when he was bet to less than 4-to-1.

A better gamble might be #11 Downtown Banker, who dueled wide on the turn March 15 to just miss at the wire in a three-way photo finish. He only earned a 60 Beyer figure for that race, but he had a wide trip that day while today he’s running a half a furlong shorter. Also, he’s been gelded since he last started on April 9, so he just may be able to run the necessary 71 Beyer needed to win.

Another with a shot is #7 Ask George, who is running back for the second time off a long layoff. He has three good workouts and showed a hint of speed on April 9.

I will bet $200 on both #1 Scibelli and #11 Downtown Banker at 3/1 or greater. If either of those two goes off at less than 3/1, then I will instead substitute a $100 win bet on #7 Ask George at 7/2 or more.

Saturday, Belmont Stakes — 3:27 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Belmont Stakes

Maiden King conquers the Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes, 1-1/2 miles, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#1 Chocolate Candy                             10/1
#2 Dunkirk                                          4/1
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff                                  15/1
#8 Flying Private                                  12/1

 The Belmont Stakes is an intriguing race because 3-year-olds are tackling a mile-and-a-half distance for the first time and almost certainly will never race this far again.

Over the years, longshots have popped that were real head-scratchers when looking at their past performances, and I think it’s because of the slow early pace.  The pace is much quicker at shorter distances than the Belmont Stakes, which leads some talented horses to tire badly in the stretch. But if the early pace is slowed to a crawl — like is often the case in the Belmont —  then some horses can sustain their runs for much longer distances. 

For example, when Commendable won the 2000 Belmont Stakes, somebody asked trainer D. Wayne Lukas how he got a sprinter to win a 12-furlong race. And Lukas said that Commendable galloped the first six furlongs, then it became a six furlong race.

Therefore, I expect the jockeys in this race to come out of the gate with their mounts in a hammerlock and their feet on the dashboard. Also, a slow pace would be disadvantageous to the 2-to-1 betting favorite Mine That Bird, who runs his best races closing from the clouds. That style works best with heated pace battles that burn out the early pace setters in the stretch.

Mine That Bird is a good horse, but I can’t take 2-to-1 at this crazy distance.

The best early speed looks like #6 Charitable Man, who won the Peter Pan while pressing the leader on May 9. However, if Dunkirk runs his best then he should be close to the front on the far turn.

Between these two, Durkirk is the better bet to win at this distance based on the sustained pace rating he earned in the Florida Derby. Two California-based horses — #1 Chocolate Candy and #3 Mr. Hot Stuff — have been running on synthetic surfaces where they have shown that they can run on if the early pace is slow enough.

Finally, D. Wayne Lukas saddles #8 Flying Private, who is improving and must be respected off is 102 Beyer Speed Figure earned in the Preakness Stakes.

At the window, I will bet $250 to win on #2 Dunkirk at 3/1 or better;  $150 on #3 Mr. Hot Stuff and $100 on Chocolate Candy, both at 6/1 or more; and $100 on #8 Flying Private at odds of at least 8/1.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O’Neill continued his 2009 success with 2-year-old first-time starters when #5 Necessary Evil established a new cushion track record in winning by 3-3/4 lengths.

O’Neill used jockey Joel Rosario in this race, which had eight first time starters of the nine runners. Necessary Evil, who was bought for $160,000, showed three quick workouts and I was prepared to wager on her at 7-to-2 or better, but she ended up as the 9-to-5 favorite.

Necessary Evil broke with the pack, then Rosario sent her to the lead. She was pursued down the backstretch and on the turn by #8 Laura’s Pleasure, ridden by Michael Baze. But that one ran out of gas at the quarter pole and nobody threathened thereafter.

I bet $200 on second-time starter #9 Win for M’lou at 9/2 and $150 on #1 Ghost Shadow at 12/1.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ghost Shadow (KY) Baze T Talbot S 12.50 6
2 2 Gambling Pokerface (CA) Arambula P Coffee C 63.50 8
3 3 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 5.70 4
4 4 Rote (KY) Smith M Miller P 6.80 7
5 5 Necessary Evil (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.90 1
6 6 Mi Sueno (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 3.00 2
7 7 Lena Miss (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 49.50 9
8 8 Laura’s Pleasure (KY) Baze M Ayers R 20.30 5
9 9 Win for M’lou (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherlock G 4.90 3
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
6 $4.40 $3.00
9 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.70 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $
%d bloggers like this: