Results, Del Mar, Friday Race 8 – lost $180

July 28, 2010 — maidenking

Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed Irish-bred Titus Aurelius for $25,000 on June 4 and won a Maiden $32K claiming race with him

My first thought when I saw the morning line for this race was that the odds for #9 Titus Auerelius, at 5-to-2, needed to be much closer to those of #3 D’oro Dancer, at 9-to-2. 

D’oro Dancer had stamina, speed and decent Beyer Speed Figures. And although Titus Aurelius’ past performances looked OK, it was obvious that he was the morning line favorite because of the glamour connections of jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Doug O’Neill. 

O’Neill claimed Titus Aurelius from Simon Callaghan on June 4 for $25,000 and on June 25 the gelding showed speed before fading in a maiden special weight turf sprint. On Friday, as the horses loaded into the gate, the public saw what I saw and made Titus Aurelius 8-to-5 and D’oro Dancer 2-to-1.   

In this race, Rosario quickly went to the front with Titus Aurelius, who cruised willingly on the lead down the backstretch in this 7-furlong sprint.  D’oro Dancer, who was also running without being asked, got to the flank of Titus Aurelius as the field swang into the turn. 

At the quarter pole, jockey Tyler Baze pushed D’oro Dancer to within a half length of Titus Aurelius and it looked like a stretch duel was forthcoming. However, when Rosario asked Titus Aurelius for more, he kicked away to an easy three-length win. 

I was prepared to put $650 on D’oro Dancer at 5-to-2 or better, but his post time odds were just 2-to-1. Another one of my wagers was to bet #7 Big Wags at 3-to-1 or better, but only if D’oro Dancer was also 7-to-2 or more, which he was not. 

However, I forgot to specify odds for the exotics, which included keying 39-to-1 shot Spinco Bob for third in the trifecta and second in the exacta to D’oro Dancer and Spinco Bob. Those bets cost me $180.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Not in Siberia (CA) Garcia M Ordonez A 12.90 7
2 2 Kim’s Leading Man (CA) Gonzalez A Abrams B 18.90 2
3 3 D’oro Dancer (KY) Baze T Walsh K 2.10 3
4 4 My Last Tycoon (NY) Espinoza V Stute M 10.60 4
6 5 Yvett’s Maar (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 45.90 9
7 6 Big Wags (ON) Bejarano R Glatt M 4.00 6
8 7 Spinco Bob (CA) Pedroza M Velasquez D 39.00 8
9 8 Titus Aurelius (IRE) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.70 1
10 9 Anga (CA) Berrio O Garcia V 20.30 5
SCR – Brianville (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Callaghan C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $5.40 $3.60 $2.80
2 – $9.80 $5.20
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $337.30 (8-2/6-10-5/9)
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $12.50 (6-4/5-9)
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $73.90 (6-10-9)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2633.10 (7 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $2298.40 (9-2-3-4-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $559.00 (9-2-3-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $121.30 (9-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $24.00 (10-9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $138257.00 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $965.60 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $56.80 (2-9)
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P Val back in So. Cal, while Baze is out until Oak Tree

July 27, 2010 — maidenking

Pictured signing autographs on Opening Day, jockey Tyler Baze will miss the rest of the Del Mar meet because of facial fractures suffered when thrown from a horse on July 24.

Jockey Patrick Valenzuela will resume riding in Southern California on Wednesday. He has a mount aboard Warrensmysterydice in Del Mar's 6th.

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Jockey Tyler Baze injured after being thrown from a horse

July 25, 2010 — maidenking

Jockey Tyler Baze was hurt Saturday after his mount reared up and tossed him off  just before the horses loaded into the gate for the fifth race at Del Mar.

Initial reports were that Baze had a badly swollen eye and a bruised calf, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.

As the horses were waiting to be loaded, Night Justice reared up and dumped Baze. During the incident, Baze was head butted and the horse stepped on the jockey’s  calf before running off.

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Wednesday, Del Mar Race 10

July 20, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays    

#4 Tiger Trysts
#7 Proud Jenny
#8 Bigmikeistheman
#9 Elessar
#10 Jakesam
#12 Celestic Night
#13 Liquid Asset

I am writing this early Tuesday morning, so I do not have access to the morning lines. But, by the looks of the past performances, the likely favorites are #8 Bigmikeistheman, #9 Elessar and #13 Liquid Asset — a colt that needs to draw in from the also eligible list.

First time starters at nice prices win lots of these 2-year-old maiden claiming races, and five of them are scheduled to run in this one. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 64, which is 10 points higher than any of the experienced runners have earned.

Although owners First Home Thoroughbreds haven’t won with many debut runners, #4 Tiger Trysts looks to have potential. Trainer Adam Kitchingman has done very well with this class of runner when the horse is making its first start. However, all Tiger Trysts’ workouts are slow, which suggests that either Kitchingman has taken great pains to hide the horse’s talent or Tiger Trysts can’t run.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out #10 Jakesam and he’ll leg up jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to be sending his maidens to the lead. Hollendorfer wins with 29 percent of his debuters, according the Daily Racing Form, but most of his victories came in Northern California. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was the leading rider at the recently completed Hollywood Park meet, has a great record on debuting horses. Rosario rides #12 Celestic Night.

The horse who will probably be the best wagering opportunity is #9 Elessar. Trainer Kathy Walsh is very good with horses running for the second time and Elessar showed a good burst in the stretch on June 11 at Golden Gate while zig-zagging down the lane.

Another experienced runner, #8 Bigmikeistheman, has also shown some ability. Bigmikeistheman probably would have won on May 20, as he was cruising on a two-length lead. However, the gelding lost his action when he banged into the rail in a fluke occurence.

In his last race on July 1, Bigmikeistheman was four-wide all the way on the turn then bore out throughout the stretch to miss by a head as the 7-to-5 favorite in a weak contest.

If #9 Elessar is 2-to-1 or greater, I will bet $600 on him to win. Also, I will put $100 on #7 Proud Jenny and #10 Jakesam if their post time odds are in the 10/1 to 19/1 range. Finally, at 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $150 on #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night.

It’s true that my bets total $1,100, but I do not expect every horse to fall into the necessary odds ranges, so I will likely end up wagering less than $1,000.

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Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

August 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2
2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5
3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6
5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7
6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1
7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4
8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8
9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9
10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10
11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11
12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3
SCR – Unbridled Brew (CA)     – –
SCR – A Soft Breeze (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80
1 – $6.60 $4.40
12 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#8 Danceuponthestars           7/2
#10 Towser                          9/5

This field of 12 is full of very bad horses that can be easily eliminated. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, but nine of the 10 experienced runners entered in here have yet to crack 40. Furthermore, the odds on seven of them have been less than 20-to-1 only twice in 17 races with the average odds of these 17 races being 53-to-1.

Single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts populate the racing form page. I guess that’s why the morning line maker hung odds of 7-to-2 on #8 Danceuponthestars, a first time starter who has been training slowly at Golden Gate Fields.

Realistically, I can see only three horses winning this race: #8 Danceuponthestars, #10 Towser and #11 Ministerfrommiami. Any other horse would be a complete shocker.

Owned and trained by Ed Moger, Danceuponthestars is switching circuits and jockey Mike Smith has won five times and placed five times in 19 chances with 2-year-old first time starters. Although most of them were in the maiden special weight ranks.

Towser showed a good burst of speed on June 12 and trainer Mike Harrington upgrades the jockey from Felipe Valdez to Michael Baze. Towser should be near the early lead, but his odds may be no better than even money.

Finally, John Sadler sends out #11 Ministerfrommiami who ran in spurts in his July 3 debut. This gelding is running in his second lifetime race, but I like Danceuponthestars better.

At 5/2 or more, I will bet $200 on #8 Danceuponthestars and at 2/1 or better I’ll put $200 on Towser.

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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 1 — lost $550

July 28, 2009 — maidenking

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

It’s not often that the 5-to-2 morning line favorite goes off at 6-to-1 and wins the race. But that’s exactly what happened when #5 Box Office Star rallied to win Sunday’s first race.

Box Office Star, trained by Tim Yakteen, ran well in his May 25 debut to earn a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. But horses who have that profile aren’t usually profitable bets so I did not fear this gelding.

Instead, I backed #6 Escaping the Storm and #8 Eisenheim because they were being bet after recent long layoffs. Although they had better long-term angles going for them, they were no match for Box Office Star.

Eisenheim pressed the pace from second then faded in the stretch at 2-to-1 while Escaping the Storm, 3-to-1, rallied up the rail to finish second.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 No Caps No Floors (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 8.70 7
2 2 Great Raid (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A 2.60 6
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 27.20 3
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 10.90 4
5 5 Box Office Star (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 6.40 1
6 6 Escaping the Storm (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 3.20 2
7 7 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Stra K Van Berg J 65.90 8
8 8 Eisenheim (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 5
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $14.80 $7.00 $4.20
6 – $4.80 $3.80
3 – – $9.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $29.80 (5-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1831.80 (5-
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Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 4 — lost $150

July 28, 2009 — maidenking

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

They say many races are won at the starting gate. And that seemed to be true in this heat, as jockey Tyler Baze shot to the front on #5  Punctual and cruised to an easy 7-1/2 length victory.

The owners had to be pleased with the work of trainer Peter Miller, who had this horse ready to win in its first lifetime race. The filly, which was bought for just $1,000, earned $16,200 for the win.

When analyzing this race, I gave Punctual a chance at 10/1 to 19/1. But with a few minutes to post #1 Bye Bye Hollywood, who was about 4/1,  was scratched. So instead of Punctual being 11 or 12-to-1, she went off at 8-to-1.

Instead, I bet $100 on #7 Action Gal at 7-to-1 and $50 on #9 Wicked Trip at 12-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Deputy Judy R N (KY) Espinoza V Walsh K 2.10 2
4 2 Our Bellini Bikini (FL) Talamo J Koriner B 2.00 5
5 3 Punctual (FL) Baze T Miller P 8.80 1
6 4 Fair Kisses (KY) Garcia M DeLeon R 7.50 6
7 5 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 7.00 3
8 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 7.40 4
9 7 Wicked Trip (FL) Arambula P Grayson B 12.70 7
SCR – Dixie Saint (FL) Stra K Grayson B – –
SCR – Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D – –
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $19.60 $6.80 $4.40
2 – $3.80 $3.00
7 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $20.20 (1-6-1)
$1.00
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — lost $700

June 23, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Four horses looked like they could win this race, and although they all ran well, second-time starter #12 I Want My Money was clearly the best.

Trainer Jeff Mullins, whose Hollywood Park win rate is hovering around 30 percent, dropped I Want My Money in class from a $50,000 maiden claimer where he debuted on May 21. In that race, I Want My Money was obviously not at his best as jockey Martin Garcia hustled him the whole way, but could only muster a 68 Beyer Speed Figure.

But I Want My Money was working out right along and he had a fast drill on June 6, which set him up well for this win at 7-to-2.

The race began as jockey Tyler Baze shot #5 Gifted Student to the front. This John Sadler runner hadn’t raced since Oct. 13, but Sadler excels at getting horses like this gelding into the winner’s circle. Gifted Student was challenged at the top of the stretch by #14 Quality Plus, another second-timer who had the desirable combination of early speed and the best last race Beyer Speed Figure.

But Gifted Student shook Quality Plus off at the top of the lane to pull ahead by a length. However, Quality Plus fought right back, closing the gap.

Their stretch duel was interrupted by I Want My Money who came blasting up between horses and blew them both away to win by 2-1/2 lengths. Born to Cus, an improving Doug O’Neill runner making his third start at 7-to-1, ran late and won a three-way photo for second.

I put $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at 6/1. Also, I had $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus, whose odds were 3.0-to-1, but if he’d been bet to 2.9-to-1 instead then my $200 would have shifted to the winner #12 I Want My Money.

I also had $100 to win on #13 Born to Cus.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Truly a Delight (CA) Pedroza M Bernstein D 17.50 8
2 2 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 6.70 9
4 3 Street Premier (KY) Arambula P Guillot E 59.00 11
5 4 Gifted Student (CA) Baze T Sadler J 6.30 4
6 5 Turbo Energy (CA) Baze M Barocio L 12.30 5
7 6 Deification (KY) Talamo J Hofmans D 10.50 13
8 7 Santi Santi Santi (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S 11.80 7
9 8 Ryland (CA) Delgadillo A Yakteen T 101.60 6
10 9 Illusive Dealer (CA) Sandoval D Fama D 82.00 12
11 10 Tralee Creek (KY) Valdez F DeLima J 74.80 10
12 11 I Want My Money (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 3.90 1
13 12 Born to Cus (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.10 2
14 13 Quality Plus (PA) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 3.00 3
SCR – Valentine Gift (WA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $9.80 $5.20 $3.60
13 – $7.80 $5.00
14 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (12-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $713
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Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

June 21, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 Gifted Student                     6/1
#12 I Want My Money               9/2
#13 Born to Cus                       10/1
#14 Quality Plus                       7/2

John Sadler, who trains #5 Gifted Student, has a very good record when bringing older maiden claimers back from long layoffs, especially when they are dropping in class. Gifted Student showed good speed in his debut on Oct. 13, as he was bet to 5/1 and had the lead after a half a mile versus eight others.

Jockey Tyler Baze, a 14 percent rider, is aboard. Baze, however, won with 23 percent of his last 103 mounts for Sadler, so he turns into Garrett Gomez when riding Sadler’s horses. Gifted Student is 6-to-1 on the morning line, but judging from Sadler’s other layoff winners I expect him to be bet to less than 4-to-1.

Breaking from the far outside, #14 Quality Plus is another second-time starter who had the lead for a half mile in his debut. This horse has many things to like: It has good early speed, competent connections and ran a decent Beyer Speed Figure last time. But it seems like the type of horse that will be bet below 3-to-1, which will likely cause me to try to beat it.

Jeff Mullins is one of those Southern California trainers that wins whenever he wants to and can never be totally eliminated. His runner #12 I Want My Money has been working out well and is worth a bet at the right price. The same goes for #13 Born to Cus, who Doug O’Neill bred, owns and trains. Born to Cus adds blinkers and makes a positive jockey switch from Alonso Quinonez to Joel Rosario. With older maiden claimers like these, O’Neill seems to run them into form rather than trying to win early, and Born to Cus seems to be going in the right direction.

I will bet $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 only. Also, I will take $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus at 3/1 or more, but if he is bet below that then I’ll put the $200 on #12 I Want My Money instead, also at 3/1 or better.

Finally, if #13 Born to Cus goes off at 6/1 or better, then I’ll put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $400

June 9, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

This was a two-horse race from the bell.

Trained by Howard Zucker, #6 Jamieson hadn’t run since March 2008 and was dropping from maiden special weight where he showed speed.

Breaking next door was #7 Dirt Diver who ran a winning race in his March 25 debut, then went very wide and steadied in his second race.

In this race, Jamieson, the 2-to-1 favorite, went right to the lead and was pulling on jockey Tyler Baze while holding a two-length advantage down the backstretch. Dirt Diver sat in second and seemed to be going easier for Rosario.

On the turn, Dirt Diver came within a length of Jamieson, but the favorite kicked away by two lengths at the top of the lane and appeared to be home free. But Rosario and Dirt Diver never stopped working.

Jamieson weakened a bit, and when he did, Dirt Diver went by him and got the money.

When looking at this race, I gave both Jamieson and Dirt Diver good shots to win. But I ended up with $400 on Jamieson and was only going to bet Dirt Diver if Jamieson’s odds sank below 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Atlantic Victory (CA) Garcia M McAnally R 8.70 9
2 2 Fire Scout (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 9.00 5
3 3 Easy Plunder (CA) Cedeno A Capitaine N 73.20 12
4 4 Warrens Doc Mayes (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 88.30 10
5 5 Reiterate (CA) Martin G Rosales R 51.80 13
6 6 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.00 2
7 7 Dirt Diver (CA) Rosario J Aguirre P 4.90 1
8 8 El Noche (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 14.60 8
9 9 My Number One (KY) Scott J Wingfield R 99.40 11
10 10 Bradytomoss (NY) Gryder A Kitchingman A 13.60 7
11 11 Bonkersforbinkers (CA) Sorenson D Kasparoff J 10.80 3
12 12 Seeyainthefunnies (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 76.50 6
13 13 Sovereign Lord (CA) Vergara O Moreno H 4.00 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.80 $5.20 $3.60
6 – $3.60 $3.00
11 – – $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.80 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $78.40 (1-2-7)
$1.00 Pick
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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — won $1,060

April 13, 2009 — maidenking

a-money-roll It’s got to be frustrating for the other trainers racing against Bob Baffert with maiden special weight sprinters. Baffert continues to dominate these races and the other guys are left fighting for the few crumbs that Bob leaves behind.

Depending on whether Baffert has two horses in the race, sometimes the other trainers can’t even get second money, as Baffert’s horses often finish 1-2.

Baffert saddled #8 Ride Me Fast, who showed brilliant speed on March 4 while tracking a 44 second half mile. In her debut race Jan. 11, the filly ran a 77 Beyer Speed Figure that proved she could win at this level.

As the race began, Baffert’s other entry #2 Belated Bid rushed up on the inside to knock heads with #7 Gumption on the backstretch. Jockey Tyler Baze reserved Ride Me Fast a length off the lead then eased to the front while 3-wide on the turn.

And once Baze got Ride Me Fast rolling in the homestretch nobody got within a length of her to the finish.

I bet $400 on #8 Ride Me Fast and collected $1,960. But I also spread another $500 in the race by betting $100 on #2 Belated Bid at 25/1, $150 on first-timer Bread ‘n Water at 12/1, and $250 on #3 First Grade at 9/2, who was also debuting.  

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bread ‘n Water (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 12.00 4
2 2 Belated Bid (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 25.70 10
3 3 First Grade (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 4.60 3
4 4 She’s Borracho (KY) Talamo J Mullins J 2.40 2
5 5 Guided Wave (KY) Solis A Gallagher P 15.90 8
6 6 Alphabet Cat (CA) Flores D Moreno H 30.80 7
7 7 Gumption (KY) Smith M Headley B 3.80 6
8 8 Ride Me Fast (KY) Baze T Baffert B 3.90 1
9 9 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 15.30 9
10 10 Lion Princess (KY) Rios J West T 24.50 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $9.80 $4.80 $3.20
4 – $3.80 $2.80
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.60 (8-4)
$1.
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

April 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo filles

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#1 Bread ‘n Water                            15/1
#2 Belated Bid                                   8/1
#3 First Grade                                   4/1
#8 Ride Me Fast                                5/1

The most talented horse in this race, I believe, is #8 Ride Me Fast, who is owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert. In her last race on March 4, Ride Me Fast was a length away from a pace setter who burned a quarter mile in 21.60 seconds and was two lengths behind a half in 44 seconds flat. And in her debut, she showed that she could finish by running a 77 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a half a length.

Early speed isn’t that important at 6-1/2 furlongs, but I believe jockey Tyler Baze will get her to relax and she’ll finish with good energy.

Baffert also starts #2 Belated Bid who led in her debut without much encouragement from the jockey, but the pace was not quick. The only way I can see this horse winning is if it comes from behind and Baffert is slick enough to make that happen after baiting us with Ride Me Fast.

First-time starters #1 Bread ‘n Water and #3 First Grade look like good possibilities if their prices are right.

I will bet $400 to win on #8 Ride Me Fast at 2/1 and up, $1oo on #2 Belated Bid at 4/1 and higher, $150 on #1 Bread ‘n Water at 10/1 to 19/1 only and $250 on #3 First Grade at 7/2 and up.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

April 11, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                               Morning line

#3 Total Sum                                             5/2
#7 Lago de Oro                                          3/1

Five of these eight colts and geldings are coming off of recent long layoffs, but the two best look like #3 Total Sum and #7 Lago de Oro.

Total Sum is trained by Ron Ellis who has had success with maiden claimers coming off long layoffs, especially when they are making their third lifetime starts. In February 2008, Total Sum came up the inside on his own power to press the pace in a $40,000 maiden claiming race, so he has the necessary speed to win here. This horse’s Beyer Speed Figures of 58 and 54 look weak considering that most of these races are won by a 74 or better.

But Total Sum posted his numbers early in his 3-year-old season, so his natural maturity should allow him to run faster.

Lago de Oro came off a 10-month break on Feb. 20 where he earned a 61 Beyer Speed Figure while showing a bit of early speed at this same class level. On March 13, he also ran a 61, but at the start Lago de Oro bumped another horse slightly, showed speed while four or five wide on the turn, then had no stretch punch. I adjusted his Beyer Speed Figure to 69 because of the trouble and he looks like he may put it all together today.  

Although #1 Winterscore’s speed is dangerous, I don’t think he can run with Total Sum or Lago de Oro. Trainer Mel Stute likes to run them into shape and he upgrades jockeys on Winterscore from Delgadillo to Tyler Baze. I would consider this horse if both Total Sum and Lago de Oro were dead on the board.

Big Water, #2, looks like he’d like 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs much better and first timers that look like #4 Treadwell don’t win often enough to make them  worthwhile bets.

I will wager $400 on #3 Total Sum at 7/2 or less and $200 on Lago de Oro at 2/1 to 7/2 only.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 6 — lost $100

March 22, 2009 — maidenking
Tyler Baze rode first-time starter Lt. Hopeful to a 7 furlong win (Flickr photo by Raymond)

Tyler Baze rode first-time starter Lt. Hopeful to a 7 furlong win (Flickr photo by Raymond)

The key to this race may have been that none of the horses who ran before had come within five points of the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of 83.

In races that come up weak, I’ve heard it argued,  the first-time starters deserve a longer look. And #1 Lt. Hopeful, who went wire-to-wire, was being bet early in his debut then drifted up to 6-to-1.

Knowing all of this — I did not like Lt. Hopeful anyway because he did not fit my model of a winning first time starter. Instead, I was focusing on #4 Pauper’s Prize, whose odds were too low; #8 Caspian, who was scratched; #11 Indy Ride, whose odds were too high; and #10 Ricoriatoa, who I bet $100 on at 9-to-2.

Ricoriatoa was coming off a five-month layoff and ran poorly, showing no early speed and no late kick.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lt. Hopeful (KY) Baze T Armstrong J 6.60 1
2 2 Coal Region Kid (KY) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 29.40 3
3 3 Margarita Shot (KY) Delgadillo A DeLeon R 8.20 4
4 4 Pauper’s Prize (FL) Bejarano R Cerin V 1.00 8
5 5 Steel Blue (KY) Husbands P Frankel R 23.30 9
6 6 Megaholtz (KY) Espinoza V Ellis R 23.80 2
7 7 Black Feather (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 6.10 5
10 8 Ricoriatoa (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Lobo P 4.60 7
11 9 Indy Ride (KY) Talamo J Spawr W 26.00 6
SCR – Caspian (KY) Solis A Hendricks D – –
SCR – Simple Kind of Man (KY)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $15.20 $9.80 $7.40
6 – $20.40 $11.20
2 – – $12.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $14.00 (3-6-8)
$1.00 Exacta
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 3 — won $910

March 22, 2009 — maidenking

dollar-signsFor a few seconds, it looked like #11 River Spey was going to run away with this race. Jockey Tyler Baze, who was riding #8 Smokin Anne, was right where he was supposed to be on the backstretch: with a clear lead.

But on the turn, #11 River Spey rolled up beside Smokin Anne with hardly any encouragement from Jockey Jose Valdivia. Even the tone in race caller Trevor Denman’s voice showed that he was impressed as he said “River Spey goes right on by. River Spey the leader.” 

Smokin Anne stayed on the rail, though, and found another gear. And for some unknown reason, River Spey faded fast in the stretch.

I bet $350 on Smokin Anne and collected $1,260 when she paid $7.20.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Sampaquita (CA) Garcia M Piccioni G 61.30 5
3 2 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Stra K Dupuis J 15.20 8
4 3 Girl of Mine (CA) Rios J Knapp S 51.90 3
5 4 Sweet Little Girl (CA) Enriquez I Anderson E 99.90 9
6 5 Hannah’s Moment (CA) Bejarano R Periban J 2.10 2
7 6 Shezbad (CA) Quinonez A Gutierrez J 11.50 7
8 7 Smokin Anne (KY) Baze T Hess, Jr. R 2.60 1
9 8 This Is My Song (CA) Martin G Shidaker D 97.80 10
10 9 Justalittletipsy (FL) Rosario J Miller P 7.60 4
11 10 River Spey (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 2.70 6
12 11 Lifetime Friend (KY) Sorenson D Bell, II T 75.30 11
SCR – Gilded Treasure (CA)     – –
SCR – Secret Potion (CA)     – –
SCR – Ata Honour (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $7.20 $3.80 $3.40
6 – $3.40 $3.00
4 – – $12.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $10.00 (8-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $83.20 (7-4-8)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $150

March 8, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jeff Mullins' SA maiden win was overshadowed by his Gotham victory

Trainer Jeff Mullins' SA maiden win was overshadowed by his Gotham victory

What a difference a race makes.

On opening day at Santa Anita, which was the first time #8 Unionize ran, he went off at 15-to-1 for trainer Clifford Sise. Sise had him ready to roll as Unionize earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure while unsuccessfully trying to chase down Point Encounter.

On Satuday, with Garrett Gomez up, Unionize’s odds were smashed to 1-to-2, and although much more money was bet on him this time, the results were exactly the same.

Unionize finished second once again.

This time Unionize was chasing #1 Leavenworth, a 4-to-1 shot who was showing a purchase price of $250,000 and was training well for Jeff Mullins. It was a big day for Mullins, who also won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday with I Want Revenge.

Anyway, the only time it looked like any horse could possibly catch Leavenworth was at the top of the stretch. But then jockey Tyler Baze eased into another gear and drew off. 

I bet $150 on #3 Temerity who was running in his second race back off a layoff, but never threatened.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Leavenworth (KY) Baze T Mullins J 4.40 1
2 2 Dixie Passion (KY) Rosario J Machowsky M 12.50 4
3 3 Temerity (KY) Smith M Ellis R 6.00 6
4 4 Gaz (KY) Espinoza V Greely C 38.00 7
5 5 Brian the Brave (KY) Sutherland C O’Callaghan C 25.30 8
6 6 Devil On the Roof (KY) Albarado R Greely C 20.00 5
7 7 Margarita Shot (KY) Delgadillo A DeLeon R 24.60 3
8 8 Unionize (KY) Gomez G Sise, Jr. C 0.50 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $10.80 $4.00 $3.20
8 – $2.20 $2.10
7 – – $5.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.40 (1-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $969.40 (6-10-

 

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $100

March 2, 2009 — maidenking
Winner #12 Jilona was trained by Beau Greely and bred by the owner John Greely, Beau's father.

Winner #12 Jilona was trained by Beau Greely and bred by the owner John Greely, Beau's father.

In November and December, #12 Jilona ran in two maiden special weight sprints for 2-year-olds where she was able to keep up with the early leaders for a half a mile.

In those races, Jilona showed that she had a superior quarter mile burst of speed to any of the runners going in this $32,000 maiden claimer. On Sunday, Jilona broke sharply then settled a few lengths off of leader #6 Betterthanfiction.

Coming into the stretch, Chantal Sutherland’s three-length lead on Betterthanfiction had dwindled to one, and Jilona was coming hard with a four-wide move. Jilona took over with an eighth of a mile to the wire and held off #4 She’s All Rev’d Up.

For betting purposes, I was waiting for 3-to-1 on Jilona, but she ended up going off at 5-to-2. I had four horses that I was considering, but only one of them went off in my odds range. So, I ended up with $100 on #13 Stormy Runaway at 31-to-1 based on her huge middle move in her last race.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Tuaca Parfait (CA) Quinonez A Bernstein D 5.70 4
2 2 Warrens Risk Taker (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Lewis C 26.30 11
3 3 Red Alarm (KY) Bejarano R Dominguez C 18.00 5
4 4 She’s All Rev’d Up (CA) Rios J Sadler J 3.30 2
6 5 Betterthanfiction (KY) Sutherland C Hajek I 3.50 3
7 6 Racing Rachel (FL) Smith M Miller P 9.50 10
9 7 Juliesdiorbracelet (CA) Nakatani C Abrams B 18.90 9
10 8 Retsina Code (KY) Solis A Bell, II T 44.00 6
11 9 Tan Tan (FL) Potts C Rosales R 56.40 7
12 10 Jilona (KY) Baze T Greely C 2.50 1
13 11 Stormy Runaway (CA) Stra K Zucker H 31.60 8
SCR – Kentucky Nectar (KY) Talamo J O’Neill D – –
SCR – Brahmzee (KY) Garcia M Baffert B – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $7.00 $3.80 $2.60
4 – $3.80 $2.60
6 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $27.30 (3-2-8

 

  
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