Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

August 5, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32K, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds 

Possible overlays                         Morning line 

#1 Certainly Certain                            3/1
#3 Elessar                                         6/1
#6 Gibson Home Run                           7/2
#7 Chiloquin                                      6/1
#9 B.J.’s Hope                                    6/1

Of the horses with racing experience, the one with the quickest first quarter-mile is the gelding on the rail, #1 Certainly Certain. 

In his last race, Certainly Certain broke from post 9 and had to be used a bit to stay close to the leaders. Entering the turn, Certainly Certain was 4-wide, but jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was able to negotiate his way toward the rail while on the bend. In the stretch, Certainly Certain gamely challenged the ultimate race winner JJ Minister while running a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, which would win most of the races at this level. 

However, this difficult race was on July 21, which was just two weeks ago, therefore Certainly Certain may bounce. 

A see quite a few trainer angles in this race. Kathy Walsh, who saddles #3 Elessar, has a great record with young horses making their second lifetime starts. 

First time starters have not been a good bet at this level since the beginning of 2009. But trainer Peter Miller seems to specialize with young maiden claimers making their first lifetime starts. Between January 2009 and May 2010, Miller won with 5 of 12 maiden claiming debuters that had post time odds between 7/2 and 19/1. In here, Miller saddles first-timer runner #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Another who has a great record with young maiden claimers is Adam Kitchingman, who trains #2 Mi Alma. Although Mi Alma will be ridden by leading jockey Joel Rosario, this gelding is a late foal so I am not interested. 

Finally, trainers that also own a piece of the horse do well in these types of races.  Trainer Scott Hansen is partners on #7 Chiloquin, who is by Tribal Rule. This sire’s 2 year-old and 3-year-old progeny have won 6 of 30 races at first asking recently in Southern California. Hansen doesn’t start many, but he has worked as an assistant to top trainers like Bobby Frankel and Julio Canani. 

At odds of 5/2 or higher, I will wager $600 to win on #1 Certainly Certain. Also, at 4/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $300 to win on whichever horse is the longer price between #3 Elessar and #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Finally, if #7 Chiloquin is 7/1 to 12/1, I will put $100 to win on him.  

If Certainly Certain’s odds are below 5/2, then instead I will change my bets to $400 to win on both #3 Elessar at 7/2 to 9/1 and #6 Gibson Home Run at 7/2 to 19/1; and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 5/1 to 12/1.

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RESULTS: Lost $500 with a $300 win wager on #3 Elessar at 4-1 and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 11-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Certainly Certain (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 1.80 3
3 2 Elessar (KY) Garcia M Walsh K 4.40 2
4 3 Celestic Night (KY) Nakatani C French N 15.60 5
5 4 On Golden Time (CA) Gihua J Aguayo V 47.60 9
6 5 Gibson Home Run (FL) Valenzuela P Miller P 2.80 1
7 6 Chiloquin (CA) Pedroza M Hansen S 11.30 4
8 7 Unbridled Score (CA) Rivera C Stute M 45.50 6
9 8 B. J.’s Hope (KY) Espinoza V Velasquez D 5.40 7
10 9 Express Train (KY) Garcia J Bernstein D 20.00 8
SCR – Mi Alma (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A – –
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $7.60 $5.00 $3.40
3 – $5.40 $3.00
1 – – $2.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $742.50 (6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.60 (6-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $712.70 (1-6-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $633.10 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1176.00 (6-3-1-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $296.00 (6-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $37.40 (6-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $26.40 (6-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $140.20 (4-1-6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $22113.60 (4-1-6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $20.60 (3-6)

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Wednesday, Del Mar Race 10

July 20, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays    

#4 Tiger Trysts
#7 Proud Jenny
#8 Bigmikeistheman
#9 Elessar
#10 Jakesam
#12 Celestic Night
#13 Liquid Asset

I am writing this early Tuesday morning, so I do not have access to the morning lines. But, by the looks of the past performances, the likely favorites are #8 Bigmikeistheman, #9 Elessar and #13 Liquid Asset — a colt that needs to draw in from the also eligible list.

First time starters at nice prices win lots of these 2-year-old maiden claiming races, and five of them are scheduled to run in this one. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 64, which is 10 points higher than any of the experienced runners have earned.

Although owners First Home Thoroughbreds haven’t won with many debut runners, #4 Tiger Trysts looks to have potential. Trainer Adam Kitchingman has done very well with this class of runner when the horse is making its first start. However, all Tiger Trysts’ workouts are slow, which suggests that either Kitchingman has taken great pains to hide the horse’s talent or Tiger Trysts can’t run.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out #10 Jakesam and he’ll leg up jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to be sending his maidens to the lead. Hollendorfer wins with 29 percent of his debuters, according the Daily Racing Form, but most of his victories came in Northern California. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was the leading rider at the recently completed Hollywood Park meet, has a great record on debuting horses. Rosario rides #12 Celestic Night.

The horse who will probably be the best wagering opportunity is #9 Elessar. Trainer Kathy Walsh is very good with horses running for the second time and Elessar showed a good burst in the stretch on June 11 at Golden Gate while zig-zagging down the lane.

Another experienced runner, #8 Bigmikeistheman, has also shown some ability. Bigmikeistheman probably would have won on May 20, as he was cruising on a two-length lead. However, the gelding lost his action when he banged into the rail in a fluke occurence.

In his last race on July 1, Bigmikeistheman was four-wide all the way on the turn then bore out throughout the stretch to miss by a head as the 7-to-5 favorite in a weak contest.

If #9 Elessar is 2-to-1 or greater, I will bet $600 on him to win. Also, I will put $100 on #7 Proud Jenny and #10 Jakesam if their post time odds are in the 10/1 to 19/1 range. Finally, at 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $150 on #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night.

It’s true that my bets total $1,100, but I do not expect every horse to fall into the necessary odds ranges, so I will likely end up wagering less than $1,000.

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Results, Santa Anita Friday Race 4 — lost $200

January 10, 2009 — maidenking

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of #4 Shantika's Dream, who won her debut at 17/1.

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of #4 Shantika's Dream, who won her debut at 17/1.

Bubbley Blonde, #2,  was just too irresistible for bettors. She showed several fast workouts and had leading jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard, so the crowd hammered her to 9/5 even though she had never raced before this.

She ran admirably, leading until the top of the stretch, but #4 Shantika’s Dream stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch. Winning trainer Adam Kitchingman worked Shantika’s Dream slowly leading up to the race, which he usually does with his debuters. And he was able to get 17/1 with low-profile jockey Chantal Sutherland riding.

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of Shantika’s Dream and this was the second time in five starts that one of the horses he owned won when running for the first time.

I ended up playing $200 on #5 Malibu Artiste, who showed speed in her last, but in this race unsuccessfully tried to rate from just off the lead.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 I. B. Stormin (KY) Court J Saavedra A 8.40 6
2 2 Bubbley Blonde (KY) Bejarano R Walsh K 1.90 2
3 3 She’s Our Ten (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 6.20 5
4 4 Shantika’s Dream (WA) Sutherland C Kitchingman A 17.10 1
5 5 Malibu Artiste (KY) Sorenson D Aguirre P 2.30 3
6 6 Bella Bubbles (CA) Potts C McKaughan A 15.40 7
7 7 Lunar City (FL) Pedroza M Chew M 4.30 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $36.20 $14.80 $7.40
2 – $4.20 $3.00
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $59.10 (4-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $352.20 (6-2-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1926.90 (2-6-2-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $208.20 (4-2-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $121.40 (2-4)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »
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