Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claming $40K, Cal-bred 2-yo F, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#2 She’sawontontomato                 9/2
#4 Yellow Slicker                                7/2
#7 Lola’s Lollipop                                 8/1
#12 Love At the Bay                          6/1

I like quite a few things about first-time starter #4 Yellow Slicker. This filly’s sire, Bertrando, has won with 9 of 36 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuting So. Cal. progeny when their odds were less than 20-1. A $1 wager on all would have yielded a $2.06 return.

Yellow Slicker’s trainer is also top-notch with young horses running for the first time. John Sadler won with 11 of 38 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuters when odds were between 2-1 and 9-1 for a $1.69 return on $1. Yellow Slicker’s slow workouts don’t bother me either because seven of Sadler’s maiden claiming debuters have had slow drills and three of them won regardless. Even owner Martin Wygod and jockey Joel Rosario have good records in this situation. 

But there is more to like in this race than just Yellow Slicker.

Bertrando is also the sire of #7 Lola’s Lollipop, who worked out fast at Santa Anita earlier this summer before coming to Del Mar. Trainer Blake Heap has done well with the few So. Cal. first-time starters that he’s run in recent years – but he is no John Sadler.

Patrick Valenzuela will ride #10 Alevei for Art Sherman. But this one has been working out at Pleasanton and I prefer horses that are stationed at Del Mar.

In the far outside post, #12 Love At the Bay was bet to 8-1 in her July 17 debut, but showed little. She worked out fast over the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 6, is adding blinkers, dropping in class and upgrading riders. This is a horse that can surprise.

Finally, early speed is dominant in these short sprints so #2 She’sawontontomato has to be respected. This Lewis Cenicola-trainee doesn’t have the greatest early gas I’ve ever seen, but she is only a step or two behind recent wire-to-wire winner Faisca.

Can leading jockey Joel Rosario get the job done on FTS #4 Yellow Slicker?

At odds of 5-2 to 9-1, I’ll put $300 to win on #4 Yellow Slicker and at 7-2 to 19-1, I’ll put $200 to win on #12 Love At the Bay. If Yellow Slicker is 2-1 or less, I’ll move the $300 wager win wager from her to #2 She’sawontontomato at 3-1 or higher.

Also, I want $50 exactas 2 with 4,7,12; 4 with 7,12; and 12 with 4,7. And I’ll take $35 exactas 7 with 4,12.

Although She’sawontontomato has a good chance of winning, her chances for finishing second are slimmer. So I will play her for second in the exacta at a reduced wager: $25 exactas — 4,7,12 with 2.

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Results: In the stretch it looked like #12 Love at the Bay was the winner, but she took a bad step and broke down. I bet $300 on eventual race winner #4 Yellow Slicker and made a profit of $705 after subtracting out my exotic wagers that did not connect.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Elegant Strides (CA) John K Locke T 85.10 9
2 2 She’sawontontomato (CA) Pedroza M Cenicola L 3.70 3
4 3 Yellow Slicker (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 4.00 1
5 4 Warren’s Lover (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 4.80 2
6 5 Good Acktress (CA) Medina L Harrington M 22.30 4
7 6 Lola’s Lollipop (CA) Verenzuela J Heap B 19.40 7
8 7 One More Palo (CA) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 64.30 8
9 8 Freewayracer (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 63.40 6
10 9 Alevei (CA) Valenzuela P Sherman A 6.10 5
11 10 Cosafina Carina (CA) Valdez F Moger, Jr. E 28.10 10
12 11 Love At the Bay (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 2.40 11
SCR Secret Althea (CA)    
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $10.00 $5.20 $3.80
5 $5.20 $3.40
2 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (4-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $122.40 (3-10-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $380.70 (4-5-2-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $45.30 (4-5-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $79.20 (10-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $18.80 (4-5)

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Blaze Along                             3/1
#5 Lofty Ambition                         5/2
#6 Clearly Concerned                   7/2
#7 Candid Ride                             4/1

Over the last few years, a good bet when looking for first-time starters in maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds has been to find top trainers running early foals with good workouts that are going off at decent prices.

In this race, four trainers are winning more than 20 percent of their races for the year: Bob Baffert, Carla Gaines, Jerry Hollendorfer and John Sadler. Their fillies scheduled to go to post in this race all have good workouts and were born in January, February and March.

The morning line maker has them all priced somewhere between 5/2 and 4/1. Of course, all I care about are the odds at post time and I will take whatever horses the public gives me.

I will bet $500 to win on the two highest-odds horses that are between 7/2 and 9/1 among #1 Blaze Along, #5 Lofty Ambition, #6 Dearly Concerned and #7 Candid Ride.

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Results: Lost $1,000. Had $500 to win on #6 Dearly Concerned at 4-1 and another $500 win bet on #7 Candid Ride at 5-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Sky Flying Eileen (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 23.10 2
3 2 Blondies Bling (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 31.90 6
1 3 Blazing Along (KY) Medina L Baffert B 2.20 3
4 4 True Way of Grace (FL) Valenzuela P Barba A 30.20 8
5 5 Lofty Ambition (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.40 7
6 6 Dearly Concerned (KY) Espinoza V Hollendorfer J 4.30 9
7 7 Candid Ride (PA) Rosario J Sadler J 5.60 10
8 8 Rigoletta (FL) Flores D Hendricks D 12.20 1
9 9 Anniversary Girl (KY) Smith M Hollendorfer J 14.20 5
1A 10 Star Presence (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 2.20 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $26.40 $10.00 $5.80
2 $19.20 $9.00
1 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $313.70 (8-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $779.60 (7-1-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $7581.10 (8-2-1-9)

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo’s

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Doughboy                                       5/2
#5 Runflatout                                      3/1
#6 Real Heart                                      15/1
#11 Diamond Touch                              6/1

The kind of Southern California first-time starters that have consistently done the best since 2006 are the ones that were early foals, had 20 percent-plus trainers, ran more than two fast workouts and went off at odds between 7/2 to 9/1.

In here, Carla Gaines trains one such animal in #5 Runflatout. All that’s needed for a wager is at least 7/2 odds, however Runflatout is just 3/1 on the morning line.

Breaking just outside of Runflatout is #6 Real Heart, who will be saddled by Jerry Hollendorfer. This gelding has almost all of the qualities of a promising debuter with the only drawback being that his morning line of 15/1 suggests that he’ll be more than 10/1. 

John Sadler has an excellent record with young, first-out maiden special weight runners. But with only a couple of good workouts showing, I’ll need at least 10/1 on his colt, #11 Diamond Touch.

At 5-1/2 furlongs, early speed is extremely important. On July 18, jockey David Flores tried to wire a nine-horse field with #4 Doughboy, but Smash ran him down. On Sunday, Smash is scheduled to run in the Best Pal Stakes.

Doughboy earned a respectable Beyer Speed Figure of 67 that day, but he may need to show improvement today because the median winning Beyer for this class is 76.

At 7/2 to 9/1, I will bet $500 on #5 Runflatout. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 Real Heart at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #11 Diamond Touch at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the odds on either Real Heart or Diamond Touch are outside of the window, then I will move their money onto Runflatout. So, it’s possible that I could have $1,000 on Runflatout if he’s at least 7/2.

But if Runflatout is less than 7/2, then instead of him, I will put $300 to win on #4 Doughboy at 5/2 and above.

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Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #6 Real Heart at 11-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Code Buster (FL) Espinoza V Koriner B 4.70 11
2 2 Hollywood Heist (KY) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 13.00 2
3 3 Snettisham (CA) Velazquez J Martinez S 73.00 12
4 4 Doughboy (KY) Flores D Solis W 1.60 3
6 5 Real Heart (KY) Pedroza M Hollendorfer J 11.50 6
7 6 Desert Paradise (KY) Quinonez A Pearson M 18.40 5
8 7 Competent (KY) Blanc B Sahadi J 41.00 4
9 8 McKenzies Way (KY) Valenzuela P Troeger R 6.50 1
10 9 Tart N Smart (VA) Gonzalez A Miller P 34.10 10
11 10 Diamond Touch (KY) Verenzuela J Sadler J 6.50 8
12 11 Great Rising Star (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 71.30 9
13 12 Twice the Appeal (KY) Smith M Bonde J 10.50 7
SCR Runflatout (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $15.00 $7.40 $4.40
2 $12.00 $6.20
4 $2.80

 

 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $94.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $226.80 (6-6-9)
$1.00 Superfecta

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $150

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

In a ride that would have made Calvin Borel proud, jockey Joe Talamo steered #11 Subpoena the Dress onto the rail on the turn then gunned her up the inside in the stretch to win going away at 9-to-2.

As the race began, Subpoena the Dress broke alertly on the outside then faded toward the back of the pack, far behind pace setters #6 Eclipse Sarah and #7 Kaylie’s Joy.

Garrett Gomez tracked the leaders in third with #4 Brilliant Response at 9-to-2 and she surged three-wide on the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch. But just as she had in her previous two races, Brilliant Response had nothing in the lane and could only muster a third-place finish.

Trainer Tim Yakteen, who has two wins at Del Mar from just a handful of starters, had #8 Makit Till Midnite ready to run. This 16-to-1 shot came on the outside with a steady rally to capture the place money.

A well-bet 2-to-1 shot, #1 Lady Alex was a recent claim by John Sadler and she seemed to have tons of run while jockey Joel Rosario sat her on the rail in fourth. But in the stretch Lady Alex was pinned behind a wall of horses and didn’t find running room until it was too late. 

I had a lot of betting scenarios that were tied to the post time odds. In the end, I ended up  with $150 to win on #7 Kaylie’s Joy at 4-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lady Alex (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.00 5
2 2 Angel of Mystery (CA) Espinoza V Marquez A 9.90 7
3 3 Straight Sue (CA) Vergara O Fanning J 33.80 11
4 4 Brilliant Response (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 4.60 3
5 5 Party With Brando (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 28.50 4
6 6 Eclipse Syrah (CA) Baze T Sherlock G 18.80 10
7 7 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 4.30 8
8 8 Makit Till Midnite (CA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 16.30 2
9 9 Mystic Trip (CA) Stra K Martin, Jr. F 61.60 9
10 10 Alphabet Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 21.30 6
11 11 Subpoena the Dress (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $11.60 $6.80 $4.60
8 $15.40 $8.00
4 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $105.90 (11-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.50 (6-8-11)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15221.90 (11-8-4-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $749.10 (11-8-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $68.40 (8-11)
$2.00 Quinella paid $139.00 (8-11)

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#8 Danceuponthestars           7/2
#10 Towser                          9/5

This field of 12 is full of very bad horses that can be easily eliminated. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, but nine of the 10 experienced runners entered in here have yet to crack 40. Furthermore, the odds on seven of them have been less than 20-to-1 only twice in 17 races with the average odds of these 17 races being 53-to-1.

Single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts populate the racing form page. I guess that’s why the morning line maker hung odds of 7-to-2 on #8 Danceuponthestars, a first time starter who has been training slowly at Golden Gate Fields.

Realistically, I can see only three horses winning this race: #8 Danceuponthestars, #10 Towser and #11 Ministerfrommiami. Any other horse would be a complete shocker.

Owned and trained by Ed Moger, Danceuponthestars is switching circuits and jockey Mike Smith has won five times and placed five times in 19 chances with 2-year-old first time starters. Although most of them were in the maiden special weight ranks.

Towser showed a good burst of speed on June 12 and trainer Mike Harrington upgrades the jockey from Felipe Valdez to Michael Baze. Towser should be near the early lead, but his odds may be no better than even money.

Finally, John Sadler sends out #11 Ministerfrommiami who ran in spurts in his July 3 debut. This gelding is running in his second lifetime race, but I like Danceuponthestars better.

At 5/2 or more, I will bet $200 on #8 Danceuponthestars and at 2/1 or better I’ll put $200 on Towser.

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

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