Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo’s

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Doughboy                                       5/2
#5 Runflatout                                      3/1
#6 Real Heart                                      15/1
#11 Diamond Touch                              6/1

The kind of Southern California first-time starters that have consistently done the best since 2006 are the ones that were early foals, had 20 percent-plus trainers, ran more than two fast workouts and went off at odds between 7/2 to 9/1.

In here, Carla Gaines trains one such animal in #5 Runflatout. All that’s needed for a wager is at least 7/2 odds, however Runflatout is just 3/1 on the morning line.

Breaking just outside of Runflatout is #6 Real Heart, who will be saddled by Jerry Hollendorfer. This gelding has almost all of the qualities of a promising debuter with the only drawback being that his morning line of 15/1 suggests that he’ll be more than 10/1. 

John Sadler has an excellent record with young, first-out maiden special weight runners. But with only a couple of good workouts showing, I’ll need at least 10/1 on his colt, #11 Diamond Touch.

At 5-1/2 furlongs, early speed is extremely important. On July 18, jockey David Flores tried to wire a nine-horse field with #4 Doughboy, but Smash ran him down. On Sunday, Smash is scheduled to run in the Best Pal Stakes.

Doughboy earned a respectable Beyer Speed Figure of 67 that day, but he may need to show improvement today because the median winning Beyer for this class is 76.

At 7/2 to 9/1, I will bet $500 on #5 Runflatout. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 Real Heart at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #11 Diamond Touch at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the odds on either Real Heart or Diamond Touch are outside of the window, then I will move their money onto Runflatout. So, it’s possible that I could have $1,000 on Runflatout if he’s at least 7/2.

But if Runflatout is less than 7/2, then instead of him, I will put $300 to win on #4 Doughboy at 5/2 and above.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #6 Real Heart at 11-1.

*********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Code Buster (FL) Espinoza V Koriner B 4.70 11
2 2 Hollywood Heist (KY) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 13.00 2
3 3 Snettisham (CA) Velazquez J Martinez S 73.00 12
4 4 Doughboy (KY) Flores D Solis W 1.60 3
6 5 Real Heart (KY) Pedroza M Hollendorfer J 11.50 6
7 6 Desert Paradise (KY) Quinonez A Pearson M 18.40 5
8 7 Competent (KY) Blanc B Sahadi J 41.00 4
9 8 McKenzies Way (KY) Valenzuela P Troeger R 6.50 1
10 9 Tart N Smart (VA) Gonzalez A Miller P 34.10 10
11 10 Diamond Touch (KY) Verenzuela J Sadler J 6.50 8
12 11 Great Rising Star (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 71.30 9
13 12 Twice the Appeal (KY) Smith M Bonde J 10.50 7
SCR Runflatout (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $15.00 $7.40 $4.40
2 $12.00 $6.20
4 $2.80

 

 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $94.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $226.80 (6-6-9)
$1.00 Superfecta
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