Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo and up

Possible overlays                Morning line

#5 Storm’n Marisa                      8/1
#9 Mo Cheese                           3/1

Yes, Joel Rosario is the leading rider at the meet. And yes, #8 Princess Beau K made a nice middle move in a 7-1/2 furlong race on May 30 that shows she has the talent to win this one.

But Princess Beau K is also the consensus best bet in the Daily Racing Form, with both Mike Hammersly and Brad Free putting her in bold type. So, I am hoping that the public pounds this filly down below 2/1.

That would help set up a decent price on #9 Mo Cheese. Trained by Rafael Becerra, Mo Cheese ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure as a 2-year-old in December 2008 and followed it up by showing some speed at a mile in January 2009. For her third start, Mo Cheese was dropped from maiden special weight into a claiming sprint where Becerra took her for $40,000 off trainer Doug O’Neill.

Mo Cheese hasn’t run since Feb. 8, 2009, but Becerra has done well over the last few years with this type of maiden. Mo Cheese has the right running style for the distance, and has already earned speed figures that would win many of these low-class events.

Another filly coming off a layoff, #5 Storm’n Marisa looks like she might  enjoy 6-1/2 furlongs based on her decent finish in a 5-1/2 furlong race in December 2009.  This 9-race veteran’s former running style was to go to the front early, but she usually tired in the stretch with that strategy.

In the last few races of her past performances, Storm’n Marisa seemed to ration her energy much better, so she might rate well today. She’s been off since January and has low-percentage connections. But Storm’n Marisa had a bullet workout on July 26 and is a good bet at 10/1 to 19/1.

At odds of 5/2 or more, I will bet $800 to win on #9 Mo Cheese. Also, if #5 Storm’n Marisa’s odds are between 10/1 and 19/1, then I will wager $200 to win on her. But if Storm’n Marisa’s odds are not in the 10/1 to 19/1 zone then I will increase my bet on Mo Cheese to $1,000.

Lastly, if Mo Cheese’s odds are exactly 2/1, then I will reduce my bet on her to $300.

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Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #9 Mo Cheese at 2-1.

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