Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 8, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Blaze Along                             3/1
#5 Lofty Ambition                         5/2
#6 Clearly Concerned                   7/2
#7 Candid Ride                             4/1

Over the last few years, a good bet when looking for first-time starters in maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds has been to find top trainers running early foals with good workouts that are going off at decent prices.

In this race, four trainers are winning more than 20 percent of their races for the year: Bob Baffert, Carla Gaines, Jerry Hollendorfer and John Sadler. Their fillies scheduled to go to post in this race all have good workouts and were born in January, February and March.

The morning line maker has them all priced somewhere between 5/2 and 4/1. Of course, all I care about are the odds at post time and I will take whatever horses the public gives me.

I will bet $500 to win on the two highest-odds horses that are between 7/2 and 9/1 among #1 Blaze Along, #5 Lofty Ambition, #6 Dearly Concerned and #7 Candid Ride.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost $1,000. Had $500 to win on #6 Dearly Concerned at 4-1 and another $500 win bet on #7 Candid Ride at 5-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Sky Flying Eileen (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 23.10 2
3 2 Blondies Bling (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 31.90 6
1 3 Blazing Along (KY) Medina L Baffert B 2.20 3
4 4 True Way of Grace (FL) Valenzuela P Barba A 30.20 8
5 5 Lofty Ambition (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.40 7
6 6 Dearly Concerned (KY) Espinoza V Hollendorfer J 4.30 9
7 7 Candid Ride (PA) Rosario J Sadler J 5.60 10
8 8 Rigoletta (FL) Flores D Hendricks D 12.20 1
9 9 Anniversary Girl (KY) Smith M Hollendorfer J 14.20 5
1A 10 Star Presence (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 2.20 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $26.40 $10.00 $5.80
2 – $19.20 $9.00
1 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $313.70 (8-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $779.60 (7-1-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $7581.10 (8-2-1-9)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

August 7, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo’s

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Doughboy                                       5/2
#5 Runflatout                                      3/1
#6 Real Heart                                      15/1
#11 Diamond Touch                              6/1

The kind of Southern California first-time starters that have consistently done the best since 2006 are the ones that were early foals, had 20 percent-plus trainers, ran more than two fast workouts and went off at odds between 7/2 to 9/1.

In here, Carla Gaines trains one such animal in #5 Runflatout. All that’s needed for a wager is at least 7/2 odds, however Runflatout is just 3/1 on the morning line.

Breaking just outside of Runflatout is #6 Real Heart, who will be saddled by Jerry Hollendorfer. This gelding has almost all of the qualities of a promising debuter with the only drawback being that his morning line of 15/1 suggests that he’ll be more than 10/1. 

John Sadler has an excellent record with young, first-out maiden special weight runners. But with only a couple of good workouts showing, I’ll need at least 10/1 on his colt, #11 Diamond Touch.

At 5-1/2 furlongs, early speed is extremely important. On July 18, jockey David Flores tried to wire a nine-horse field with #4 Doughboy, but Smash ran him down. On Sunday, Smash is scheduled to run in the Best Pal Stakes.

Doughboy earned a respectable Beyer Speed Figure of 67 that day, but he may need to show improvement today because the median winning Beyer for this class is 76.

At 7/2 to 9/1, I will bet $500 on #5 Runflatout. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 Real Heart at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #11 Diamond Touch at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the odds on either Real Heart or Diamond Touch are outside of the window, then I will move their money onto Runflatout. So, it’s possible that I could have $1,000 on Runflatout if he’s at least 7/2.

But if Runflatout is less than 7/2, then instead of him, I will put $300 to win on #4 Doughboy at 5/2 and above.

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Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #6 Real Heart at 11-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Code Buster (FL) Espinoza V Koriner B 4.70 11
2 2 Hollywood Heist (KY) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 13.00 2
3 3 Snettisham (CA) Velazquez J Martinez S 73.00 12
4 4 Doughboy (KY) Flores D Solis W 1.60 3
6 5 Real Heart (KY) Pedroza M Hollendorfer J 11.50 6
7 6 Desert Paradise (KY) Quinonez A Pearson M 18.40 5
8 7 Competent (KY) Blanc B Sahadi J 41.00 4
9 8 McKenzies Way (KY) Valenzuela P Troeger R 6.50 1
10 9 Tart N Smart (VA) Gonzalez A Miller P 34.10 10
11 10 Diamond Touch (KY) Verenzuela J Sadler J 6.50 8
12 11 Great Rising Star (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 71.30 9
13 12 Twice the Appeal (KY) Smith M Bonde J 10.50 7
SCR – Runflatout (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $15.00 $7.40 $4.40
2 – $12.00 $6.20
4 – – $2.80

 

  
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $94.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $226.80 (6-6-9)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Wednesday, Del Mar Race 10

July 20, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays    

#4 Tiger Trysts
#7 Proud Jenny
#8 Bigmikeistheman
#9 Elessar
#10 Jakesam
#12 Celestic Night
#13 Liquid Asset

I am writing this early Tuesday morning, so I do not have access to the morning lines. But, by the looks of the past performances, the likely favorites are #8 Bigmikeistheman, #9 Elessar and #13 Liquid Asset — a colt that needs to draw in from the also eligible list.

First time starters at nice prices win lots of these 2-year-old maiden claiming races, and five of them are scheduled to run in this one. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 64, which is 10 points higher than any of the experienced runners have earned.

Although owners First Home Thoroughbreds haven’t won with many debut runners, #4 Tiger Trysts looks to have potential. Trainer Adam Kitchingman has done very well with this class of runner when the horse is making its first start. However, all Tiger Trysts’ workouts are slow, which suggests that either Kitchingman has taken great pains to hide the horse’s talent or Tiger Trysts can’t run.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out #10 Jakesam and he’ll leg up jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to be sending his maidens to the lead. Hollendorfer wins with 29 percent of his debuters, according the Daily Racing Form, but most of his victories came in Northern California. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was the leading rider at the recently completed Hollywood Park meet, has a great record on debuting horses. Rosario rides #12 Celestic Night.

The horse who will probably be the best wagering opportunity is #9 Elessar. Trainer Kathy Walsh is very good with horses running for the second time and Elessar showed a good burst in the stretch on June 11 at Golden Gate while zig-zagging down the lane.

Another experienced runner, #8 Bigmikeistheman, has also shown some ability. Bigmikeistheman probably would have won on May 20, as he was cruising on a two-length lead. However, the gelding lost his action when he banged into the rail in a fluke occurence.

In his last race on July 1, Bigmikeistheman was four-wide all the way on the turn then bore out throughout the stretch to miss by a head as the 7-to-5 favorite in a weak contest.

If #9 Elessar is 2-to-1 or greater, I will bet $600 on him to win. Also, I will put $100 on #7 Proud Jenny and #10 Jakesam if their post time odds are in the 10/1 to 19/1 range. Finally, at 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $150 on #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night.

It’s true that my bets total $1,100, but I do not expect every horse to fall into the necessary odds ranges, so I will likely end up wagering less than $1,000.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 8, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#4 Saint Isabelle                         10/1
#5 Champagne d’Oro                    3/1
#9 The Great Atlantic                   5/1
#11 Pulpit Magic                          15/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 81 and #5 Champagne d”Oro ran a 76 and 77 in two of her three lifetime races.  Her last two runs were in the Cinderella Stakes on June 11 and the Landaluce on July 12, so this is a bit of a class drop.

This filly may win, but I expect her odds will be too low for a bet.

Of the five first-time starters scheduled to go, #4 Saint Isabelle is the best bet, but only if the price is right.

One horse who will likely be a bad wager is the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained #7 Softly Singing. No doubt this filly has been working out ultra impressively and her past performances are loaded with speedy drills and bullet works. The problem is that the public loves this type of first-time starter and she is almost certain to be bet below 7-to-2.

She will probably hit the board and even if she wins, Softly Singing’s odds won’t compensate for the risk.  The public will also probably overbet #2 Pure Class for the same reasons they like Softly Singing.

Five of these fillies have racing experience and #5 The Great Atlantic showed quick early speed in her first race on July 26. She could win at a decent price.

Finally, #11 Public Magic, a second time starter, has an outside shot if bet below 20/1.

I will put $200 to win on #4 Saint Isabelle at 7/2 to 19/1, I want $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic at 7/2 and up and $100 on #11 Pulpit Magic at 5/2 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

April 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo and up, f&m

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Justalittletipsy                              9/2
#5 Tiz Salsa                                     2/1
#7 Xtraordinary                                5/2

The main question with #5 Tiz Salsa is why did trainer Jerry Hollendorfer give this filly up? Usually when a horse goes from a successful trainer to a low-percentage conditioner the horse doesn’t run as well. And the ownership of Thomas and York is the same as it was on Feb. 16, so this runner was not just purchased.

Absolutely, Tiz Salsa has the Beyer Speed Figures to win this race, but is this the same horse that Hollendorfer trained? I think not.

So the next best two horses are #7 Xtraordinary and #4 Justalittletipsy. Xtraordinary has a bit of speed and has run well enough in the past to win at this level. She’s had 11 races, but 8 of them were at maiden special weight and she faced allowance horses once.

Peter Miller trains #4 Justalittletipsy, who came on with a good charge in the stretch in her debut. With better position early in the race, she might improve enough to win.

I will bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy from 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 on #7 Xtraordinary from 2/1 to 7/2.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 2:03 pm post time

February 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Mr Holmes                                       5/2
#2 Marcade                                         9/2
#3 Zephaniah                                      12/1
#9 Mustang Aleyna                             12/1

Breaking from the rail, #1 Mr. Holmes looks strong today. On Dec. 14, this colt ran a credible fourth behind The Pamplemousse, who won the San Rafael Stakes impressively on Jan. 17. In Mr. Holmes’ last on Jan. 1, it seems like jockey Michael Baze was not trying too hard, as he merely breezed Mr. Holmes throughout the length of the stretch. Finally, trainer Jeff Mullins won with 10 of his last 43, producing $1.72 for every $1 bet, when going from a route to a sprint.

Trainer John Sadler appears to have #2 Marcade ready to run. Jockey Mike Smith rides many of owner Jerome Moss’ first time starters, but he hasn’t had much success with them.

Jerry Hollendorfer claimed #3 Zephaniah for $40,000 from trainer Ed Moger on Aug. 21, then Moger claimed him right back on Sept. 25 for the same price.  On Oct. 17, Zephaniah raced well enough to beat a weak field at this level, so he’s also a threat today.

Finally, #9 Mustang Aleyna could surprise at a big price as this gelding is coming off a long layoff and could be a live longshot. Although, his workouts are slow.

I will bet $300 on #1 Mr. Holmes at 2/1 or more, and $200 on #2 Marcade between 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I’ll take $100 on both #3 Zephaniah and #9 Mustang Aleyna at odds of 5/1 and up.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — won $1,270

February 14, 2009 — maidenking

see-full-size-imageTrainer Jerry Hollendorfer was also part owner of #6 The Major, who won this race as a first-time starter showing  decent work outs.

As expected, #8 Eddie the Hat went directly to the lead, but swerved to the right so severely at the break that he couldn’t be seen on the head-on replay for about five seconds. Jockey Tyler Baze straighted out “The Hat” and he led down the backstretch and to the top of the stretch. But he stopped quickly in midstretch as The Major, ridden by Patrick Husbands, eased to the lead and held off a mild late rally by #4 Only Be Cause.

I bet $200 on #2 Benezit at 7-to-2 and $150 on #6 The Major, who paid $21.60.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Prince Novetti (KY) Bejarano R Bell, II T 7.80 6
2 2 Benezit (KY) Flores D McCarthy S 3.60 4
3 3 Afleet Magic (NY) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 13.40 5
4 4 Only Be Cause (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 2.50 2
5 5 Final Journey (CA) Talamo J Jones M 39.90 8
6 6 The Major (KY) Husbands P Hollendorfer J 9.80 1
7 7 Philly Slew (CA) Olguin G Gregory W 20.50 3
8 8 Eddie the Hat (KY) Baze T Stute G 1.90 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $21.60 $8.80 $7.00
4 – $4.20 $3.40
7 – – $12.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.10 (6-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2993.00 (6-4-7-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $732.60 (6-4-7)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »