Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Blaze Along                             3/1
#5 Lofty Ambition                         5/2
#6 Clearly Concerned                   7/2
#7 Candid Ride                             4/1

Over the last few years, a good bet when looking for first-time starters in maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds has been to find top trainers running early foals with good workouts that are going off at decent prices.

In this race, four trainers are winning more than 20 percent of their races for the year: Bob Baffert, Carla Gaines, Jerry Hollendorfer and John Sadler. Their fillies scheduled to go to post in this race all have good workouts and were born in January, February and March.

The morning line maker has them all priced somewhere between 5/2 and 4/1. Of course, all I care about are the odds at post time and I will take whatever horses the public gives me.

I will bet $500 to win on the two highest-odds horses that are between 7/2 and 9/1 among #1 Blaze Along, #5 Lofty Ambition, #6 Dearly Concerned and #7 Candid Ride.

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Results: Lost $1,000. Had $500 to win on #6 Dearly Concerned at 4-1 and another $500 win bet on #7 Candid Ride at 5-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Sky Flying Eileen (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 23.10 2
3 2 Blondies Bling (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 31.90 6
1 3 Blazing Along (KY) Medina L Baffert B 2.20 3
4 4 True Way of Grace (FL) Valenzuela P Barba A 30.20 8
5 5 Lofty Ambition (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.40 7
6 6 Dearly Concerned (KY) Espinoza V Hollendorfer J 4.30 9
7 7 Candid Ride (PA) Rosario J Sadler J 5.60 10
8 8 Rigoletta (FL) Flores D Hendricks D 12.20 1
9 9 Anniversary Girl (KY) Smith M Hollendorfer J 14.20 5
1A 10 Star Presence (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 2.20 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $26.40 $10.00 $5.80
2 $19.20 $9.00
1 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $313.70 (8-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $779.60 (7-1-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $7581.10 (8-2-1-9)

Results, Del Mar, Saturday, Race 7 — lost $800

Jockey Alonso Quinonez

Eight of the 10 runners in this race were making their first lifetime starts. Many of them hailed from the world’s top barns: Those run by Bob Baffert, John Sadler, Jerry Hollendorfer and Doug O’Neill.

But amazingly, the debuter with the no-name jockey — Alonso Quinonez — and the low-profile trainer — Myung Kwon Cho — got the job done.

Although lots of these eight debuters had quick workouts and great connections, each one seemed to have strong drawbacks, also.
By looking at years of past results, I know that Florida breds have better records for precociousness in Southern California than horses bred in Kentucky or California. So, I prefer them.
 
But in this race, Florida breds #4 Rock So Hard and #6 The Phenom were both May foals, which are usually a money-losing propositions when debuting. Other information sent me mixed messages, too. 
 
For example, trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled Rock So Hard, also ran #7 Prayer for Relief, who was a February foal with good workouts – both positives. 
 
Baffert has an outstanding record when he uses jockey Martin Garcia on his first timers. But Garcia was on Rock So Hard and not Prayer for Relief. So Baffert’s money horse was unclear to me.
 
In the race, #10 Premier Pegasus, who is a son of Fusaichi Pegasus, shot out of the gate at 44-to-1. As the field went down the backstretch, Rock So Hard took the lead, but some seven runners were within two lengths of each other. On the inside, jockey Tyler Baze tried to make a move with #1 Red Sharp Humor, but that didn’t work, so he backed off.
 
Throughout the turn and at the top of the lane, the running order didn’t change much. Rock So Hard led on the inside, Premier Pegasus was a head behind in the two path, while #9 Just Imagine was looming three wide and a half a length away.
 
The field remained compact as race caller Trevor Denman told the crowd “this one’s wide open.” In deep stretch, Garcia was wailing away with his whip on Rock So Hard, while Quinonez was essentially hand riding Premier Pegasus, although the rider did give him a few taps of the stick as the wire approached.
 
Just Imagine disappointed his backers by hanging in the stretch as the even money favorite. I’ve heard race track myths that when first time starters are bet down below 3-to-1 they are great bets. But, in reality, they are some of the worst wagers in racing.
 
I had $200 on #1 Red Sharp Humor at 16/1, $300 on #6 The Phenom at 8/1 and $300 on #7 Prayer for Relief at 10/1.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Red Sharp Humor (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 16.40 4
2 2 Clubhouse Ride (KY) Espinoza V Lewis C 9.20 5
3 3 Joburg Star (KY) Flores D Miller P 9.20 7
4 4 Rock So Hard (FL) Garcia M Baffert B 5.20 2
5 5 Palio Prince (KY) Smith M Barba A 42.40 9
6 6 The Phenom (FL) Talamo J Sadler J 8.00 10
7 7 Prayer for Relief (KY) Pedroza M Baffert B 10.10 6
8 8 Purgestein (KY) Santiago Reyes C Bonde J 22.20 8
9 9 Just Imagine (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.00 3
10 10 Premier Pegasus (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 44.40 1
SCR American Wildcat (VA)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $90.80 $30.60 $11.00
4 $6.00 $3.60
9 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $434.80 (10-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $5813.30 (4-10-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $18710

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9
2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6
3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10
4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5
5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8
6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2
7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1
8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4
9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7
10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60
6 $9.40 $6.80
10 $16.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Almost all of Bob Baffert’s horses are bred to win stakes races, so they can dominate a field of maiden special weight sprinters at any moment.

Rafael Bejarano rode #10 Excellent News in her third lifetime race after she spun an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her second race on Aug. 29. Since the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race was just an 80, Excellent News was a standout — especially considering that the next highest Beyer was just a 69.

There were no secrets with this filly. She had the top Beyer, a top jockey and a top trainer. It was easy to see her outstanding qualifications and it was no surprise that the public knocked Excellent News’ odds to 4-to-5.

But with odds this low, horses need to win some 70-to-80 percent of the time to make a bet worthwhile. And all of us bettors are all dealing with incomplete information, so it’s tough to find angles that work seven out of 10 times.

A couple of first timers in this race — #4 Stunning Ally and #7 Carrie Rose — had strong long-term angles working for them. And I also took a chance on second-time starter #5 Evening Jewel.

However, Excellent News won like a 4-to-5 shot should win.

At the window, I wagered $200 on Stunning Ally at 9/1, $100 on Evening Jewel at 5/1 and $150 on Carrie Rose at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Dance the Dance (CA) Talamo J Hofmans D 37.50 6
2 2 Shesoprovocative (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 13.20 5
3 3 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Baze M Fanning J 63.20 8
4 4 Stunning Ally (CA) Quinonez A Canani J 9.50 4
5 5 Evening Jewel (CA) Smith M Cassidy J 5.40 2
6 6 Giveme Onereason (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 35.10 3
7 7 Carrie Rose (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 8.30 9
8 8 Tiz Cee’s Ballet (CA) Martin G Locke T 57.40 10
9 9 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.00 7
10 10 Excellent News (CA) Bejarano R Baffert B 0.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $3.60 $2.40 $2.40
5 $4.60 $4.20
6 $8.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.80 (10-5)
$1.00

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2-year-olds, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#1 The Skinny Man                       3/1
#4 The Program                            12/1
#5 Mr Charlie                                6/1
#7 Get My Fix                               5/2
#9 Frisco Kid                                 8/1

On Aug. 29, co-favorites #1 The Skinny Man raced against #7 Get My Fix and only a whisker separated the two for second place. Both colts have decent early speed, they’ve both run in the neighborhood of the 80 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class, and they’re learning how to rate.

Either of them can win, but it won’t be easy.

Although neither half of the uncoupled Bob Baffert entry came close to winning their debut, I expect either #4 The Program or #5 Mr Charlie to run very well today. I have seen Baffert work his magic too many times to ignore his colts even when the morning line maker seems to be disregarding them. 

The Program appears to have been bought for $310,000 while Mr Charlie looks like a $725,000 purchase. Although these purchase prices are published in the Daily Racing Form, sometimes nobody really paid that much for the horse and the published sale price is the amount the animal was bought back for when the sale’s reserve price was not met.  Anyway, Baffert doesn’t train many mules and these two have been working out well. So I expect big things.

In The Program’s last race, he came out of the gate very slowly and while watching the replay it was difficult to tell if jockey Mike Smith intentionally pulled him to the back. But one thing I am sure of is that Smith certainly wasn’t hustling The Program down the backstretch.

And another thing that makes me curious about The Program is that, according to my records, Baffert and The Program’s jockey Martin Garcia won with five first-time starters from just 12 rides for a return of $3.31 for every $1 wagered. These Baffert/Garcia firsters were all in 2006-07, so they happened too long ago to be included in the DRF’s statistics, which show that the Baffert/Garcia team are 0-for-3 overall since 2008.

I know The Program is not running in his debut, but my point is that Garcia might be one of Baffet’s money riders. All I am saying is beware.

As for Mr Charlie, he seemed to be full of run in his Sept. 7 race. As it began, Mr Charlie went to the lead with hardly any encouragement from jockey Joe Talamo. However, right next to Talamo that day was Indian Firewater, who is another Baffert runner, and Indian Firewater exploded in the stretch while Mr Charlie faded.

But I’m sure that was not Mr Charlie’s best run.

OK, moving on. The last promising horse is #9 Frisco Kid. The only drawback with him is that trainer Bruce Headley is 0-for-11 with debuting MSW juveniles over the last five years, according to “A Closer Look” in the DRF. Otherwise, Frisco Kid is the prototype of what a winning debuter looks like.

And don’t ask me why, but a higher percentage of first timers win at 6-1/2 furlongs than at any other distance.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will bet $200 to win on #9 Frisco Kid. Also, I’ll put $150 on #4 The Program at 5/1 or better and $150 on #5 Mr Charlie at 4/1 or more. However, if The Program and Frisco Kid both go off at odds of 8/1 or higher and Mr Charlie is less than 4/1, then I will also put $200 on #7 Get My Fix at 5/2 or more.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses — #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7
2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3
3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2
4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4
5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6
6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5
7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60
3 $4.20 $2.80
2 $5.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 7 — lost $500

Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

It really made sense for the Bob Baffert-trained #12 Marcello to win this race. In his only lifetime start on July 25, Marcello lagged at the back of the back then came with a strong rally at 5-1/2 furlongs to get fourth.

Garrett Gomez is all out on #12 Marcello to hold off #9 Pulsion

Click photo for view of the finish

The winner that day, Tiny Woods, was another colt out of the Baffert barn who led wire-to-wire. Marcello’s running style didn’t fit at that short sprint distance, but it was perfect for Saturday’s 6-1/2 furlongs.

In the race, Marcello broke alertly then settled in fourth place, as #2 Our Crazy Monkey led down the backstretch. Jockey Garrett Gomez — who was likely the reason Marcello’s post time odds were crushed to 1-to-2 — began his wide move as the horses approached the turn.

Our Crazy Monkey gave the lead up quickly and had no chance of staying with Marcello. But #9 Pulsion, another second-timer, had lots of fight in him and really showed up ready to run.

Pulsion, a 9-to-1 shot who was adding blinkers for trainer Patrick Biancone, closed into Marcello’s 2-length lead with every stride as the wire approached. But Marcello hung on by a nose in a dramatic photo finish.

I liked Marcello but his short price forced me to look elsewhere. So, I spread $500 out over three first timers. #3 Poker Trick, at 14/1, #6 Erbeia, 11/1, and #10 We Will Rock, 12/1. However, none of them fired.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Our Crazy Monkey (NY) Pedroza M O’Neill D 18.90 3
3 2 Poker Trick (FL) Baze T O’Neill D 14.30 10
1 3 Viva Macho (FL) Baze M Cho M 44.10 6
4 4 Mr. Saturdaynight (KY) Talamo J Sadler J 11.70 7
5 5 Quietly Waiting (KY) Garcia M Knapp S 44.60 11
6 6 Erbeia (KY) Nakatani C Mandella R 11.10 8
7 7 Nuggets Please (NM) Kaenel K Leonard R 51.90 9
8 8 Came Aboard (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez J 30.80 4
9 9 Pulsion (FL) Smith M Biancone P 9.50 2
10 10 We Will Rock (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 12.90 5
12 11 Marcello (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1
SCR Retired American (MD)    
SCR Undaunted Rally (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $3.00 $2.60 $2.20
9 $6.60 $4.60
2 $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $152.40 (1-1-12)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1255.90 (12-9-2-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $136.00 (12-9-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $41.40 (1-12)
$2.00 Quinella paid $14.60 (9-12)

Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays             Morning line

#2 Dixie’s Sandals                     8/1
#3 Seriously                             3/1
#4 Star of Sapphire                   4/1
#5 Vivacious Anna                    8/1

Although #6 Imperatriz showed good speed in her debut and lasted for second, this filly had an easy trip yet didn’t run anywhere close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 80 for this class.

If the public sends Imperatriz off at close to her 5-to-2 morning line then I will enthusiastically bet against both her and #7 It Tiz, a first time starter who is 4-to-1 on the early line.

Much better potential wagers are #2 Dixie’s Sandals, #4 Star of Sapphire and #5 Vivacious Anna. Also, the Bob Baffert-trained #3 Seriously obviously has a decent shot, but she may be overbet.

Jockey Mike Smith rode Seriously in her debut, but now he shows up on Star of Sapphire, who’s been working out well. Star of Sapphire has a few good betting angles going for her.

Doug O’Neill saddles #5 Vivacious Anna and O’Neill has done well with this type of maiden in the past. Finally, Dixie Sandals has mostly slow workouts, but she fits the profile of a winning debuter — but only if she falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 betting range.

I will bet $250 to win on #4 Star of Sapphire at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on #5 Vivacious Anna at 5/1 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 Dixie’s Sandals at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the public goes overboard on Star of Sapphire and bets her below 7-to-2, then I will instead substitute $200 to win on #3 Seriously at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Poker Trick                            7/2
#6 Erbeia                                   9/2
#9 Pulsion                                  8/1
#10 We Will Rock                8/1
#12 Marcello                               3/1

In his first lifetime race on July 25, #12 Marcello sat at the back of the 10-horse field before accellerating four-wide on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Garrett Gomez ducked Marcello to the inside and closed more than three lengths.

On that day, trainer Bob Baffert also saddled the wire-to-wire winning favorite Tiny Woods, so Marcello might not have been well meant. This 6-1/2 furlong distance seems to fit his running style much better.

However, Gomez might cause Marcello to be overbet.

Doug O’Neill is training three first-time starters in this one: #2 Our Crazy Monkey, #3 Poker Trick and #10 We Will Rock. I don’t like Crazy Monkey, but will bet on Poker Trick and We Will Rock if the odds are decent.

Other colts who deserve consideration are #6 Erbeia and #9 Pulsion. Richard Mandella, the trainer of Erbeia is winning at 20 percent for the year, but Pulsion’s trainer Patrick Biancone is struggling at 8 percent since coming off his suspension for possessing cobra venom.

I will bet $250 on Marcello at odds of 5/2 and above. Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Poker Trick at 7/2 to 19/1, and $200 on #10 We Will Rock at 5/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #6 Erbeia is 10/1 to 19/1 I will bet $150 to win on him. And only if Marcello is bet below 5/2 will I put $150 to win on #9 Pulsion at 5/2 to 7/1.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Trainer Eric Guillot thought enough of Champagne d’Oro to enter her in both the Cinderella Stakes and the Landaluce off a second-place finish in a maiden race.

In the Cinderella, Champagne d”Oro was in tight at the five-sixteenths pole, but earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure when she finished third. Considering the median winning Beyer for maiden special weight is just an 81, Champagne d’Oro looked to be a strong contender.

She didn’t disappoint.

From the outset, Champagne d’Oro was ready to run. She broke alertly when the bell rang and eased to the lead on the backstretch with little encouragement from rider Martin Garcia. She knocked heads with first-time starter #10 Stockings on the turn. But even so, Garcia was sitting chilly in the saddle, while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was riding hard on Stockings.

Once Garcia let loose in the lane, Champagne d’Oro opened up on the field and won easily.

In the race preview, I noted Champagne d’Oro’s potential superiority, but figured her odds would not be high enough. In the end, I bet $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Hondo’s Way (KY) Espinoza V Mandella R 18.20 6
2 2 Pure Class (KY) Smith M Sadler J 3.60 5
4 3 Saint Isabelle (KY) Talamo J Puype M 23.90 4
5 4 Champagne d’Oro (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 2.10 1
6 5 Go Ask Alex (KY) Delgadillo A Glenney J 38.20 8
7 6 Softly Singing (KY) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 2.80 2
8 7 Miss Peanut (CA) Stra K Martinez S 61.40 9
9 8 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 6.20 10
10 9 Stockings (KY) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 13.80 3
11 10 Pulpit Magic (KY) Solis A Dominguez C 20.10 7
SCR Back Nine Doc (FL)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $6.20 $3.40 $2.80
7 $4.00 $3.40
10 $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.50 (5-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#4 Saint Isabelle                         10/1
#5 Champagne d’Oro                    3/1
#9 The Great Atlantic                   5/1
#11 Pulpit Magic                          15/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 81 and #5 Champagne d”Oro ran a 76 and 77 in two of her three lifetime races.  Her last two runs were in the Cinderella Stakes on June 11 and the Landaluce on July 12, so this is a bit of a class drop.

This filly may win, but I expect her odds will be too low for a bet.

Of the five first-time starters scheduled to go, #4 Saint Isabelle is the best bet, but only if the price is right.

One horse who will likely be a bad wager is the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained #7 Softly Singing. No doubt this filly has been working out ultra impressively and her past performances are loaded with speedy drills and bullet works. The problem is that the public loves this type of first-time starter and she is almost certain to be bet below 7-to-2.

She will probably hit the board and even if she wins, Softly Singing’s odds won’t compensate for the risk.  The public will also probably overbet #2 Pure Class for the same reasons they like Softly Singing.

Five of these fillies have racing experience and #5 The Great Atlantic showed quick early speed in her first race on July 26. She could win at a decent price.

Finally, #11 Public Magic, a second time starter, has an outside shot if bet below 20/1.

I will put $200 to win on #4 Saint Isabelle at 7/2 to 19/1, I want $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic at 7/2 and up and $100 on #11 Pulpit Magic at 5/2 to 19/1.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 5 — won $270

ist2_5589853-moneytip-jar-series[1]In this race, jockey Garrett Gomez was riding the 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge. This colt was making its second start and had performed well in its July 5 debut.

Maybe if Bench the Judge was 5-to-2 or more I would have considered him, but with Gomez it wasn’t difficult to forecast this colt’s minuscule 4-to-5 post time odds. And that made it easy to look elsewhere for the winner.

I had a few possibilities: The owner of #6 Runaway Bandido, Judi Partridge,  won with a couple of debuters from a limited sample and Carla Gaines, the trainer of #5 John Scott, has a good record when her first-timers get betting action.

I also saw a few things to like in other debuters #10 L’Il Charlie Rose, #11 Twenty Hawks and #1A Full Effect. 

I was waiting for odds of 10/1 to 19/1 on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. With a minute to post they were all in the range, so I bet them and #5 John Scott, who fell into my 3/1 to 9/1 parameter.

Runaway Bandido broke toward the back of the back, but came with a huge run in the stretch to briefly hold the lead with 100 yards to go. He almost gave me a giant payoff, as he clicked up to 21-to-1 in the final flash. Of course, I couldn’t have claimed the win on the blog, but real money is OK, too.

However, John Scott’s jockey Victor Espinoza was also hitting the gas in the stretch and that colt outran Runaway Bandido to the wire. Favorite Bench the Judge led at the top of the lane, but faded to third.

I had $150 on John Scott and collected $720, however subtracting out my three $150 wagers left me with only a $270 profit.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Killer Bear (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 37.90 5
3 2 Bench the Judge (KY) Gomez G O’Neill D 0.90 3
4 3 Sammy’s a Runnin’ (CA) Baze M Sherman A 7.70 6
5 4 John Scott (CA) Espinoza V Gaines C 3.80 1
1 5 Zees Echo (CA) Talamo J Harrington M 9.10 8
6 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 21.30 2
9 7 Ministers Power (CA) Kaenel K Bonde J 46.70 7
10 8 L’Il Charlie Rose (CA) Pedroza M O’Neill D 13.90 10
11 9 Twenty Hawks (CA) Baze T Warren D 12.70 4
12 10 Screwball (CA) Delgadillo A Cenicola L 63.40 11
1A 11 Full Effect (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 9.10 9
SCR A Plus Topper (CA)    
SCR Boldnregent (CA) Atkinson P Stute M
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $9.60 $6.80 $3.80
6 $16.40 $6.80
3 $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $73.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (2-7-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1796.20 (5-6-3-11)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $221.30 (5-6-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $183.20 (7-5)
$2.00 Quinella paid $116.00 (5-6)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 4 — lost $400

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

The best value horse in this race turned out to be #3 Seattle Ruler. He was making his fourth start and his Beyer Speed Figure improved every time he hit the track. Also, Seattle Ruler showed the quickest first quarter mile in his past performances of any of these runners.

At 19/1, I had $100 on him and Seattle Ruler led most of the way, but was no match for #7 Lions Story, who wore him down in the stretch. I also liked #5 Magic Max, who was making his first lifetime start for trainer Bob Baffert.

Magic Max, who fit the profile of a Baffert debut winner, broke slowly but made a quick wide move on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Victor Espinosa didn’t seem to be riding as hard as he was on the turn and Magic Max flattened out at 6-to-1.

The bettors enthusiastically went for second-time starter Lions Story, who was 7-to-5, and #2 Ivory Fudge, whose post time odds were a mere 2-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth a Punt (KY) Solis A Zucker H 15.40 6
2 2 Ivory Fudge (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 4
3 3 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 19.20 2
4 4 Alfarabi (KY) Gryder A Harty E 4.20 3
5 5 Magic Max (FL) Espinoza V Baffert B 6.90 5
6 6 Wayman (KY) Pedroza M Mollica M 30.80 7
7 7 Lions Story (FL) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 1.40 1
8 8 Happy M. B. A. (CA) Stra K Ho H 61.00 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $4.80 $3.60 $2.80
3 $12.20 $6.20
4 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $27.50 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $11.90 (2-1-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $223.00 (7-3-4-2)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1
2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5
3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4
4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6
5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3
6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7
7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20
7 $2.60 $2.60
5 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta

Sunday, Del Mar Race 5 — 4 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 John Scott                           4/1
#6 Runaway Bandido                 20/1
#10 L’il Charlie Rose                   20/1
#11 Twenty Hawks                    8/1
#1A Full Effect                          7/2

The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge ran well on July 5 when he finished third in a race where the second-place horse, Lion’s Story, came back to win on Saturday. He’s legitimate, but with Garrett Gomez riding, Bench the Judge will almost certainly be overbet.

Therefore, I will look to one of the first time starters to run a monster race. Carla Gaines trains #5 John Scott and she wins with a large percentage of debuters that go off at less than 8/1. So, it appears that this barn bets the good ones.

Judi Partridge owns #6 Runaway Bandido. She won with two of her last three first-time starters, and they were both trained by Rafael Becerra.

It’s possible that trainer Doug O’Neill may be sitting on a good one with #10 L’Il Charlie Rose. O’Neill will also saddle Bench the Judge and I’ve seen this scenerio played out all too many times. The trainer puts two horses in the race and they both run well, but the longer price defeats the chalk.

Also, trainer Mike Harrington is dangerous when he both owns and trains a Swiss Yodler 2-year-old. No doubt, Harrington has an excellent record first time out with these types, but most of the winners came at 4-1/2 furlongs. 

Finally, #11 Twenty Hawks is a good bet if the price is right.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 to win on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 L’Il Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. At 3/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $150 on #5 John Scott.

I won’t bet #1A if he’s still part of the entry with #1 Zees Echo. But if Zees Echo is scratched, then I’ll bet $150 on 1A Full Effect at 10/1 to 19/1.

Saturday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#2 Ivory Fudge                              3/1
#3 Seattle Ruler                             12/1
#5 Magic Max                                 8/1
#7 Lions Story                                2/1

Bob Baffert trains #5 Magic Max and he looks like the type of first-time starter that Baffert wins with regularly. I expect a decent price even though this horse has win-early breeding and has been working out well.

Two second-time starters, #2 Ivory Fudge and #7 Lions Story, look like good bets also, but only at 5/2 or more. The morning line maker made Lions Story the 2-to-1 favorite and I won’t be backing him if his odds are that low.

Baffert's debuter Magic Max looks like a strong bet today

Baffert's debuter Magic Max looks like a strong bet today

A sleeper in here might be #3 Seattle Ruler. He’s been improving with every race and he ran the quickest opening quarter mile of any of these horses when he raced on June 20.

I want $300 to win on #5 Magic Max at 7/2 to 9/1, but $200 at 10/1 to 19/1. I will also take $200 to win on the higher odds horse between #2 Ivory Fudge and #7 Lions Story, as long as that runner is 5/2 or higher.

Finally, at 8/1 or more I will bet $100 on #3 Seattle Ruler.

Saturday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds, F

 

 Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Magic Yodeler                          2/1
#5 Whispering Hush                     10/1

As much as I like #1 Magic Yodeler and #5 Whispering Hush, at the right odds of course,  this race is just as much about playing against what I expect to be overbet first and second time starters.

Breaking on the outside, #7 High Five Gal has been burning up the track in the morning and that equates to heavy betting by the public in the afternoon. High Five Gal is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and trainer Doug O’Neill is OK with a debuter like this, but overall these horses are some of the worst bets in racing. In fact, 2-year-old msw first time starters bet below 7-to-2 win only 20 percent of the time and bettors get back just 66 cents for every $1 bet. 

The morning line maker pegged both #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie at 4-to-1, but neither of them showed enough in their first races for me to wager on them today.

But first-time starter #5 Whispering Hush could win at a decent price.  She’s been working out slowly, which should help keep the betting dollars off of her.

Also, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 81 and #1 Magic Yodeler ran a 75 in last May. She has good speed and if the public pounds #7 High Five Gal we might get 5-to-2 on her.

At the window, I will bet $150 to win on #5 Whispering Hush at 10/1 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #1 Magic Yodeler at 5/2 and up.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

First-time starter #10 Millennia, ridden by Alex Solix, eeked out a victory at 22/1.

First-time starter #10 Millennia, ridden by Alex Solix, eeked out a victory at 22/1.

The public pounded first-time starter #8 Misinjennuous to the minuscule price of 4-to-5. Perhaps it was because their beloved Garrett Gomez was aboard, or that this filly sported three bullet workouts.

Anyway, these low-priced first-timers continue to be bad wagers. Although Gomez and Misinjennuous gave it their all, #10 Millennia came from off the pace to take a tight photo finish at 22-to-1.

Millennia was not a first-time starter to take lightly and it was no fluke that she won. Millennia was simply overlooked by bettors who likely disregarded this filly because her trainer, Lisa Lewis, is not well known.

On Sunday, I noted in the race preview that #7 Kaloula and Millennia were “a couple of first-timers who could win at a big price.” They both had good breeding, speedy works and some other things to like.

On the site, my $250 wager on Millennia was only valid from 7/2 to 19/1. Millennia’s odds were below 20-to-1 right up until race time, but surged to 22-to-1 when the simulcast money poured in while the race was running.

Although I can’t claim a monetary victory on the blog, I did have $20 in real cash on her and collected $460. Had Millennia stayed at 19-to-1, I would have profited $4,750 for the site.

Instead, the only blog bet I made was $150 to win on third-place finisher #7 Kaloula at 11-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Seriously (KY) Smith M Baffert B 11.10 5
3 2 Mum’s Zip (KY) Flores D Rosales R 14.20 7
4 3 Pulpit Magic (KY) Valdez F Dominguez C 28.30 8
5 4 Modality (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 4.50 9
6 5 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 17.30 4
7 6 Kaloula (FL) Santiago Reyes C Mulhall K 11.70 3
8 7 Misinjennuous (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 0.90 2
9 8 Calcutta Rose (KY) Baze T Lloyd J 26.10 10
10 9 Millennia (FL) Solis A Lewis L 22.00 1
11 10 Whyprincesswhy (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 10.70 6
SCR Softly Singing (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $46.00 $12.60 $7.80
8 $3.00 $2.80
7 $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $70.70 (10-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $300

bio_PatrickBiancone[1]

Trainer Patrick Biancone is winning with more than 20 percent of his HollyPark runners

The only thing I hate more than watching 7-to-5 shots win races, is when they’re followed home by 2-to-1 second choices.

Who likes that? Even horseplayers clutching $4.80 win tickets and $7.30 exactas squack and humbly make jokes at the payout windows about how little they won.

But these short-priced winners need to come in from time to time to feed the confidence of the people who wager on them. That way, the rest of us can get better prices when chalk players use their winnings to pound the next losing favorite.

That brings me to this race where the Patrick Biancone-trained #11 Zip Quick, 7/5, stalked the pace, went three-wide on the turn and accelerated away from the field in the stretch. Inside of him, was the 2-to-1 first time starter #6 Alfarabi who rushed up on the rail to the lead, but couldn’t hold off Zip Quick.

All of the first-time starters that I was considering went off at higher odds than my 20-to-1 maximum. However, second-time starters #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley fell into my odds range, so I was able to wager $150 on each.

I was hoping that these colts learned something in their first starts and were ready to uncork something huge in this race. But nothing unexpected happened, which is why the exacta money covered little more than a hot dog and a Coke at the snack bar.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
4 1 Zero Manners (KY) Pedroza M Tekos, Jr. A 28.60 10
5 2 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 8.50 3
6 3 Alfarabi (KY) Rosario J Harty E 2.30 2
8 4 Ranger Heartley (KY) Sorenson D Hebert J 7.40 8
1 5 Amore Di Aleyna (FL) Arambula P La Croix D 7.60 7
9 6 Saarface (KY) Flores D O’Neill D 18.10 6
10 7 Deputy Max (KY) Blanc B Koriner B 24.50 5
11 8 Zip Quik (NY) Talamo J Biancone P 1.40 1
1A 9 Summers At Delmar (KY) Solis A La Croix D 7.60 4
12 10 Google Me (CA) Scott J Zamora R 99.40 9
SCR Luv Dragon (KY)    
SCR Sterling Outlook (KY)    
SCR Paddy’s Prayer (FL) Bejarano R O’Callaghan C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $4.80 $3.00 $2.40
6 $3.20 $3.00
5 $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.30 (11-6)
$1
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