Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Poker Trick 7/2
#6 Erbeia 9/2
#9 Pulsion 8/1
#10 We Will Rock 8/1
#12 Marcello 3/1
In his first lifetime race on July 25, #12 Marcello sat at the back of the 10-horse field before accellerating four-wide on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Garrett Gomez ducked Marcello to the inside and closed more than three lengths.
On that day, trainer Bob Baffert also saddled the wire-to-wire winning favorite Tiny Woods, so Marcello might not have been well meant. This 6-1/2 furlong distance seems to fit his running style much better.
However, Gomez might cause Marcello to be overbet.
Doug O’Neill is training three first-time starters in this one: #2 Our Crazy Monkey, #3 Poker Trick and #10 We Will Rock. I don’t like Crazy Monkey, but will bet on Poker Trick and We Will Rock if the odds are decent.
Other colts who deserve consideration are #6 Erbeia and #9 Pulsion. Richard Mandella, the trainer of Erbeia is winning at 20 percent for the year, but Pulsion’s trainer Patrick Biancone is struggling at 8 percent since coming off his suspension for possessing cobra venom.
I will bet $250 on Marcello at odds of 5/2 and above. Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Poker Trick at 7/2 to 19/1, and $200 on #10 We Will Rock at 5/1 to 19/1.
Finally, if #6 Erbeia is 10/1 to 19/1 I will bet $150 to win on him. And only if Marcello is bet below 5/2 will I put $150 to win on #9 Pulsion at 5/2 to 7/1.
August 19, 2009 at 12:12 AM
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