Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Blaze Along                             3/1
#5 Lofty Ambition                         5/2
#6 Clearly Concerned                   7/2
#7 Candid Ride                             4/1

Over the last few years, a good bet when looking for first-time starters in maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds has been to find top trainers running early foals with good workouts that are going off at decent prices.

In this race, four trainers are winning more than 20 percent of their races for the year: Bob Baffert, Carla Gaines, Jerry Hollendorfer and John Sadler. Their fillies scheduled to go to post in this race all have good workouts and were born in January, February and March.

The morning line maker has them all priced somewhere between 5/2 and 4/1. Of course, all I care about are the odds at post time and I will take whatever horses the public gives me.

I will bet $500 to win on the two highest-odds horses that are between 7/2 and 9/1 among #1 Blaze Along, #5 Lofty Ambition, #6 Dearly Concerned and #7 Candid Ride.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost $1,000. Had $500 to win on #6 Dearly Concerned at 4-1 and another $500 win bet on #7 Candid Ride at 5-1.

*********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Sky Flying Eileen (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 23.10 2
3 2 Blondies Bling (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 31.90 6
1 3 Blazing Along (KY) Medina L Baffert B 2.20 3
4 4 True Way of Grace (FL) Valenzuela P Barba A 30.20 8
5 5 Lofty Ambition (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.40 7
6 6 Dearly Concerned (KY) Espinoza V Hollendorfer J 4.30 9
7 7 Candid Ride (PA) Rosario J Sadler J 5.60 10
8 8 Rigoletta (FL) Flores D Hendricks D 12.20 1
9 9 Anniversary Girl (KY) Smith M Hollendorfer J 14.20 5
1A 10 Star Presence (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 2.20 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $26.40 $10.00 $5.80
2 $19.20 $9.00
1 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $313.70 (8-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $779.60 (7-1-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $7581.10 (8-2-1-9)
Advertisements

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo’s

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Doughboy                                       5/2
#5 Runflatout                                      3/1
#6 Real Heart                                      15/1
#11 Diamond Touch                              6/1

The kind of Southern California first-time starters that have consistently done the best since 2006 are the ones that were early foals, had 20 percent-plus trainers, ran more than two fast workouts and went off at odds between 7/2 to 9/1.

In here, Carla Gaines trains one such animal in #5 Runflatout. All that’s needed for a wager is at least 7/2 odds, however Runflatout is just 3/1 on the morning line.

Breaking just outside of Runflatout is #6 Real Heart, who will be saddled by Jerry Hollendorfer. This gelding has almost all of the qualities of a promising debuter with the only drawback being that his morning line of 15/1 suggests that he’ll be more than 10/1. 

John Sadler has an excellent record with young, first-out maiden special weight runners. But with only a couple of good workouts showing, I’ll need at least 10/1 on his colt, #11 Diamond Touch.

At 5-1/2 furlongs, early speed is extremely important. On July 18, jockey David Flores tried to wire a nine-horse field with #4 Doughboy, but Smash ran him down. On Sunday, Smash is scheduled to run in the Best Pal Stakes.

Doughboy earned a respectable Beyer Speed Figure of 67 that day, but he may need to show improvement today because the median winning Beyer for this class is 76.

At 7/2 to 9/1, I will bet $500 on #5 Runflatout. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 Real Heart at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #11 Diamond Touch at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the odds on either Real Heart or Diamond Touch are outside of the window, then I will move their money onto Runflatout. So, it’s possible that I could have $1,000 on Runflatout if he’s at least 7/2.

But if Runflatout is less than 7/2, then instead of him, I will put $300 to win on #4 Doughboy at 5/2 and above.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost a $300 win bet on #6 Real Heart at 11-1.

*********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Code Buster (FL) Espinoza V Koriner B 4.70 11
2 2 Hollywood Heist (KY) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 13.00 2
3 3 Snettisham (CA) Velazquez J Martinez S 73.00 12
4 4 Doughboy (KY) Flores D Solis W 1.60 3
6 5 Real Heart (KY) Pedroza M Hollendorfer J 11.50 6
7 6 Desert Paradise (KY) Quinonez A Pearson M 18.40 5
8 7 Competent (KY) Blanc B Sahadi J 41.00 4
9 8 McKenzies Way (KY) Valenzuela P Troeger R 6.50 1
10 9 Tart N Smart (VA) Gonzalez A Miller P 34.10 10
11 10 Diamond Touch (KY) Verenzuela J Sadler J 6.50 8
12 11 Great Rising Star (FL) Scott J Kirkham B 71.30 9
13 12 Twice the Appeal (KY) Smith M Bonde J 10.50 7
SCR Runflatout (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $15.00 $7.40 $4.40
2 $12.00 $6.20
4 $2.80

 

 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $94.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $226.80 (6-6-9)
$1.00 Superfecta

Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 5 — won $270

ist2_5589853-moneytip-jar-series[1]In this race, jockey Garrett Gomez was riding the 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge. This colt was making its second start and had performed well in its July 5 debut.

Maybe if Bench the Judge was 5-to-2 or more I would have considered him, but with Gomez it wasn’t difficult to forecast this colt’s minuscule 4-to-5 post time odds. And that made it easy to look elsewhere for the winner.

I had a few possibilities: The owner of #6 Runaway Bandido, Judi Partridge,  won with a couple of debuters from a limited sample and Carla Gaines, the trainer of #5 John Scott, has a good record when her first-timers get betting action.

I also saw a few things to like in other debuters #10 L’Il Charlie Rose, #11 Twenty Hawks and #1A Full Effect. 

I was waiting for odds of 10/1 to 19/1 on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. With a minute to post they were all in the range, so I bet them and #5 John Scott, who fell into my 3/1 to 9/1 parameter.

Runaway Bandido broke toward the back of the back, but came with a huge run in the stretch to briefly hold the lead with 100 yards to go. He almost gave me a giant payoff, as he clicked up to 21-to-1 in the final flash. Of course, I couldn’t have claimed the win on the blog, but real money is OK, too.

However, John Scott’s jockey Victor Espinoza was also hitting the gas in the stretch and that colt outran Runaway Bandido to the wire. Favorite Bench the Judge led at the top of the lane, but faded to third.

I had $150 on John Scott and collected $720, however subtracting out my three $150 wagers left me with only a $270 profit.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Killer Bear (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 37.90 5
3 2 Bench the Judge (KY) Gomez G O’Neill D 0.90 3
4 3 Sammy’s a Runnin’ (CA) Baze M Sherman A 7.70 6
5 4 John Scott (CA) Espinoza V Gaines C 3.80 1
1 5 Zees Echo (CA) Talamo J Harrington M 9.10 8
6 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 21.30 2
9 7 Ministers Power (CA) Kaenel K Bonde J 46.70 7
10 8 L’Il Charlie Rose (CA) Pedroza M O’Neill D 13.90 10
11 9 Twenty Hawks (CA) Baze T Warren D 12.70 4
12 10 Screwball (CA) Delgadillo A Cenicola L 63.40 11
1A 11 Full Effect (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 9.10 9
SCR A Plus Topper (CA)    
SCR Boldnregent (CA) Atkinson P Stute M
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $9.60 $6.80 $3.80
6 $16.40 $6.80
3 $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $73.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (2-7-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1796.20 (5-6-3-11)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $221.30 (5-6-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $183.20 (7-5)
$2.00 Quinella paid $116.00 (5-6)

Sunday, Del Mar Race 5 — 4 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 John Scott                           4/1
#6 Runaway Bandido                 20/1
#10 L’il Charlie Rose                   20/1
#11 Twenty Hawks                    8/1
#1A Full Effect                          7/2

The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge ran well on July 5 when he finished third in a race where the second-place horse, Lion’s Story, came back to win on Saturday. He’s legitimate, but with Garrett Gomez riding, Bench the Judge will almost certainly be overbet.

Therefore, I will look to one of the first time starters to run a monster race. Carla Gaines trains #5 John Scott and she wins with a large percentage of debuters that go off at less than 8/1. So, it appears that this barn bets the good ones.

Judi Partridge owns #6 Runaway Bandido. She won with two of her last three first-time starters, and they were both trained by Rafael Becerra.

It’s possible that trainer Doug O’Neill may be sitting on a good one with #10 L’Il Charlie Rose. O’Neill will also saddle Bench the Judge and I’ve seen this scenerio played out all too many times. The trainer puts two horses in the race and they both run well, but the longer price defeats the chalk.

Also, trainer Mike Harrington is dangerous when he both owns and trains a Swiss Yodler 2-year-old. No doubt, Harrington has an excellent record first time out with these types, but most of the winners came at 4-1/2 furlongs. 

Finally, #11 Twenty Hawks is a good bet if the price is right.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 to win on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 L’Il Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. At 3/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $150 on #5 John Scott.

I won’t bet #1A if he’s still part of the entry with #1 Zees Echo. But if Zees Echo is scratched, then I’ll bet $150 on 1A Full Effect at 10/1 to 19/1.

horse on paddock tv

Afleet's Picasso with Martin Garcia aboard readies for the Opening Day nightcap

Gaines and Solis

As trainer Carla Gaines chats with Alex Solis before he rides Eleventh Hour for owner B. Wayne Hughes

%d bloggers like this: