Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — won $1,745

April 26, 2009 — maidenking

imgres3I wonder how many people looked at their racing forms after this one and wondered how the heck a lightly-raced maiden trained by Mike Mitchell and ridden by Garrett Gomez could go off at 12-to-1.

The money stayed away, I believe, because #12 Grazen was coming into its second lifetime race off a seven-month layoff and had only one swift workout. The $26.60 payoff shows you that when a horse isn’t being bet, then everyone believes its dead on the board and stays away. 

And in most cases, that’s the right thing to do. But great trainers like Mitchell win at such a high percentage that they always need to be respected.

The favorite #9 Raise the River was 7-to-2 on the morning line, but his 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race was like a flashing neon sign that screamed “Bet Me.” He went off at 8-to-5 and Rafael Bejarano was trying to earn his sixth victory of the day, but all he and Raise the River could muster was a second-place finish.

Recently, the Gomez-Mitchell duo has been gold together. Coming into this race, anybody who bet on all of the last 56 horses these two combined on got back $1.29 for every $1 bet.

And that’s strong.

In the race, Gomez broke with #10 M One Rifle and the two dueled down the backstretch. Grazen shook him off in the stretch and drew off to win convincingly.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Grazen and $100 to win on #13 Charlie and Chris. I collected $1,995 and profited $1,745.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Quick Vic (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 28.70 9
3 2 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Espinoza V Garcia O 7.40 5
4 3 Warrens Wild Thing (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 63.70 12
5 4 Teamwork (CA) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 10.70 4
6 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Solis A Barba A 24.00 13
7 6 Cork Creek (CA) Quinonez A Sayler J 56.50 11
8 7 Star Redeemer (CA) Flores D Sadler J 8.80 8
9 8 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 1.60 2
10 9 M One Rifle (CA) Smith M Headley B 7.30 3
11 10 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 45.80 10
12 11 Grazen (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 12.30 1
13 12 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 5.30 7
14 13 Top Biker (CA) Gryder A Mitchell M 39.00 6
SCR – Premiere Flyer (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $26.60 $11.00 $6.80
9 – $3.40 $2.60
10 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $553.00 (3-3-12)
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Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

April 26, 2009 — maidenking
bio_bruceheadley

Trainer Bruce Headley is also the owner of #8 Woman Warrior

Coming into this race, #3 Ruffled Feathers looked like she was going to run big. Trainer Patrick Gallagher switched jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and the filly had improved in each of her two starts.

She was bet to 2-to-1 but broke slowly to be near the back of the field. Approaching the turn, Gomez checked Ruffled Feathers and got into more trouble entering the stretch. At that point. Ruffled Feathers was so far behind that Gomez merely breezed her to the wire.

One horse that didn’t get in trouble was #8 Woman Warrior, a first-time starter trained by Bruce Headley. Alex Solis sat her just off the pace and she was a bit wide on the turn But then she came with a furious stretch rally to mow down #7 Running After Boys.

I was prepared to wager on Ruffled Feathers, but she was below my minimum odds of 5/2. Gold Image, #6, was also out of my range and I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Irridescent Red, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wearehaving Funyet (CA) Hill C Mendoza J 51.90 9
2 2 Metallic Waters (CA) Smith M Baffert B 7.40 6
3 3 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Gomez G Gallagher P 2.30 8
4 4 Kant Catch the Kat (CA) Garcia M Sherman A 19.20 7
5 5 Irridescent Red (CA) Gryder A Becerra R 2.20 5
6 6 Gold Image (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 9.50 3
7 7 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 6.50 2
8 8 Woman Warrior (CA) Solis A Headley B 6.90 1
9 9 Suances Rio (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 24.10 4
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $15.80 $7.40 $4.80
7 – $9.60 $6.40
6 – – $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $62.00 (8-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2981.50 (8-7-6-9)
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Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:05 pm post time

April 25, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#9 Raise the River                                7/2
#12 Grazen                                               6/1
#13 Charlie and Chris                          6/1

It seems to me that horses coming off layoffs don’t do well in races like this and neither do first time starters.That leaves me with one big stick out here: #9 Raise the River.

In his last race, Raise the River ran a 92 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a nose. In seven races, his odds have never been higher than 5-to-2, so the 7-to-2 morning line looks a bit unrealistic even in a 13-horse field. I think bettors will see that big last race Beyer and knock him below 3/1. Bejarano, who has won on 15 of the last 46 Carla Gaines horse he has ridden, will not help the price either.

Mike Mitchell trains #12 Grazen and his second-time starters win at a 39 percent clip, although most of them are maiden claimers. Also, rider Garrett Gomez has won on 21 of the last 56 Mitchell horses he has ridden.

With any improvement and a good trip, #13 Charlie and Chris can get there. He ran an 83 Beyer Speed Figure on Feb. 26, which fits in well here as the median figure needed to win this type of race is an 86.

I will bet $200 to win on #9 Raise the River at 2/1 and up and $150 to win on #12 Grazen at 3/1 or higher. If Raise the River falls below 2/1 then I’ll bet $100 on #13 Charlie and Chris at 7/2 or higher.
  
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Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1 pm post time

April 24, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, f

Possible overlays                                 Morning line

#3 Ruffled Feathers                                   5/2
#5 Irridescent Red                                     3/1
#6 Gold Image                                           6/1

Of the nine horses in this race, three of them are first-time starters — and I don’t like any of them. That leaves six fillies and mares of which #3 Ruffled Feathers looks to have the best chance to win.

This Patrick Gallagher-trained filly drastically upgrades jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and is on the improve. On March 29, Ruffled Feathers lost ground when she walked out of the gate then swang ultra-wide into the turn.  Because of the bad trip, I adjusted her 69 Beyer Speed Figure to a 74, which is in the range of what it takes to win a race of this class.

Irridescent Red, #5,  ran against Ruffled Feathers last time and she finished second in that March 29 race.  She set the pace and beat Ruffled Feathers by a half a length at the wire.

Coming off a 10-month layoff, #6 Gold Image has great connections. She’s owned by Harris Farms which gives all of their best horses to Carla Gaines. Over the years, Gaines has won with many second timers coming off long layoffs and her winning percentage with jockey Rafael Bejarano is outstanding.

I will bet $250 to win on #3 Ruffled Feathers at 5/2 or more, and $200 to win on #6 Gold Image between the odds of 3/1 and 5/1 only. If Ruffled Feather’s post time odds are 2/1 or less then I will instead bet $150 on #5 Irridescent Red.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $300

March 31, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

When the best horse in the race gets the best trip in the race the other runners don’t stand a chance.

Trained by Sal Gonzalez, #2 Ale’s Pride appeared to be the best horse when examining the past performances, as she earned the top two Beyer Speed Figures. But funny things happen at the race track.

However, nothing unusual happened in this race and if horse racing was this easy we’d all be calling our bets in from our boats docked at the Miami Yacht Club.

As the race began, #4 Irridescent Red went to the front while jockey Joel Rosario, riding Ale’s Pride, was content to sit in the middle of the eight-horse field. But entering the turn, Ale’s Pride scraped the paint to  challenge  the leader up the rail as the two dueled until the top of the stretch.

In the lane, Ale’s Pride was strong and Irredescent Red was no match.

I liked Ale’s Pride, but needed 5-to-2. When her post time odds were 8-to-5, I instead bet $150 on both #5 I Can Hear, at 4/1, and #8 Christy’s Bullet, a 9/2 shot.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Sorenson D Gallagher P 20.80 3
2 2 Ale’s Pride (CA) Rosario J Gonzalez S 1.60 1
3 3 Goal Girl Michele (CA) Stra K Chew M 42.80 5
4 4 Irridescent Red (CA) Talamo J Becerra R 3.10 2
5 5 I Can Hear (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 4.40 4
6 6 Mama Rosa (CA) Bejarano R Abrams B 5.80 6
8 7 Christy’s Bullet (CA) Solis A Dominguez C 4.70 7
SCR – Unusual Counter (CA) Delgadillo A Stute M – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
4 – $3.80 $3.20
1 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (2-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $24.00 (8-2-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $234.70
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

March 29, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Ale’s Pride                                   5/2
#5 I Can Hear                                  4/1
#8 Christy’s Bullet                             5/1

On paper, the best horse in this race looks like #2 Ale’s Pride, who has the two top Beyer Speed Figures. But horse races aren’t run on paper, they are run on flat screen televisions and inside of computers.

On Feb. 8, Ale’s Pride ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking outward at the start and running wide in the stretch. I don’t usually question the speed numbers in the racing form, but this one seems a bit high, as Ale’s Pride never got close to this number in her past.

Regardless, based on her Jan. 9 race she would still have the top overall Beyer of this group. Second-time starters #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet wouldn’t need to improve much to win.

I adjusted I Can Hear’s Beyer from 69 to 74 when I added points because of her wide trip and the fact that jockey David Flores chose to duck inside to rally rather than staying on the outside where there are fewer distractions.

At the window, I will bet $200 on #2 Ale’s Pride at 5/2 or more. If she is bet below that, then I will instead wager $150 on both #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet at odds of 3/1 or more.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — lost $200

March 23, 2009 — maidenking
Mike Smith broke #3 Patriotic Soldier quickly from the gate then won a photo

Mike Smith broke #3 Patriotic Soldier quickly from the gate then won a photo

On Feb. 1, #3 Patriotic Soldier debuted at 6-1/2 furlongs as part of an entry that went off at 7-to-2. But when the gate opened, Patriotic Soldier hopped in the air and was quickly some 10 lengths behind the field.

He made up some ground as the field entered the stretch, but jockey Mike Smith did not push him too hard in the lane.

In the six weeks between then and Sunday, trainer Bruce Headley gave Patriotic Soldier five workouts and three of them were quick ones. So, obviously we saw a different animal on Sunday.

In Sunday’s race, Patriotic Soldier broke with the leaders, held an advantage into the stretch, then battled gamely with #7 Raise the River to the wire where he won the head bob at 9-to-1.

My bets were focused on Raise the River and #8 Ribald who needed to be at least 3/1. I ended up with $200 to win on Ribald at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Drake Lake (CA) Gomez G Sadler J 5.10 10
2 2 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 20.70 7
3 3 Patriotic Soldier (CA) Smith M Headley B 9.80 1
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 38.10 5
5 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Rosario J Barba A 19.40 4
6 6 Sherry’s Reddy (CA) Scott J Aguayo V 109.30 9
7 7 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.20 2
8 8 Ribald (CA) Rios J Sherman A 4.70 6
9 9 Philly Slew (CA) Quinonez A Gregory W 31.80 8
10 10 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.50 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $21.60 $8.60 $4.60
7 – $4.00 $2.80
10 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.00 (3-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $824.10 (2-5-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1672.60 (3-7-10-5)
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 pm post time

March 22, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                              Morning line

#7 Raise the River                                   9/2
#8 Ribald                                               5/1

This is the first maiden race I have seen this year where 3-year-olds are facing older horses. Six out of the 10 runners in this race are 3-years-old, but I don’t happen to like any of them.

Both #7 Raise the River and #8 Ribald have good speed and are coming off recent layoffs. They both look better to me than the morning line favorite #10 Charlie and Chris.

So, I will bet $200 to win on both #7 Raise the River and #8 Ribald at odds of 3/1 or more.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

February 24, 2009 — maidenking
Trained by Bruce Headley, #4 Scored sat 10 lengths off the pace then came late

Trained by Bruce Headley, #4 Scored sat 10 lengths off the pace then came late

You can’t blame Bob Baffert this time. Sangaree was ready to roll and he went gamely all the way to the wire. But this brother of Congaree lost for the fifth straight time because of either poor racing tactics by Victor Espinoza or bad luck — depending on how harsh you want to be.

Sangaree, who went off at 7-to-1, broke with the leaders but settled into stride a couple of lengths off the pace. As they approached the turn, Espinoza allowed Sangaree to run up to the leading group — the only problem was that he was four paths wide on the whole turn, causing him to lose a ton of ground. 

Throughout the turn, a four-horse wall vied for the lead together, which was an unusual sight to see. On the rail was #6 Stretchdrive, then #3 Lucius Antonius was just outside with #7 Ribald right next door. Sangaree was outside of them all, as the four bobbed heads through a 45.14-second half mile.

Sangaree outran the other pace setters, but his bad trip left him without the energy to hold off first-time starter #4 Scored. Alex Solis took the winner off the early pace by more than 10 lengths, then Scored swung wide entering the stretch and moved like an express train in the lane to get up by a head.

I bet $150 on Sangaree and $200 on #7 Ribald.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wharf Cat (KY) Flores D Marlow M 2.60 4
2 2 His Sisters Mister (KY) Baze M Headley G 56.50 7
3 3 Lucius Antonius (KY) Stra K Green J 39.30 8
4 4 Scored (KY) Solis A Headley B 6.20 1
5 5 Holladay Road (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 6.70 6
6 6 Stretchdrive (FL) Talamo J Biancone P 28.40 10
7 7 Ribald (CA) Rios J Sherman A 5.10 5
8 8 Sangaree (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 7.00 2
9 9 Lunar Humor (KY) Smith M Carava J 8.30 9
10 10 Adebayor (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 4.80 3
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $14.40 $7.00 $4.80
8 – $6.80 $4.60
10 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $49.30 (4-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $99.40 (5-5-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $873.40 (1-5-5-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2516.50 (4-8-10-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $552.40 (4-8-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $90.80 (5-4)
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — won $980

January 24, 2009 — maidenking

financial_money_rollYep. It seems to me that #7 Deep Pockets is better suited for 6 furlongs or shorter. The 4-to-5 shot trained by Bob Baffert chased pace setter #3 Drake Lake down the backstretch and put him away at the top of the lane.

Jockey Corey Nakatani was trying to ration Deep Pockets’ brilliant speed, but this horse  was in deep water during the last sixteenth of a mile, as #5 Buck’s Bro and a host of other went by him.

On the bright side, Deep Pockets’ fifth-place finish will probably allow him to go off at 2-to-1 or better next time he races. And if he shortens up, then I’ll probably bet him.

But this race was all about jockey Joel Rosario and #5 Buck’s Bro. Rosario, who won four races Saturday, placed Buck’s Bro in the middle of the seven-horse field and made a 3-wide move on the turn. Deep Pockets had the lead for about five jumps before Buck’s Bro came knocking. Rosario bumped a bit with Deep Pockets in midstretch, then pulled away to win by 1-1/4 lengths.

I bet $300 on the winner at 7-to-2, but also had $100 to win on the second-place finisher #6 Spirit of Cochise, who was 6-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
3 1 Ms Honkytonk Woman (CA) Russell C Shidaker D 112.20 10
4 2 Connie the Queen (KY) Quinonez A Matties G 19.70 3
5 3 Queen Missy (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 52.20 7
6 4 Holladay Dixie (PA) Baze T Gaines C 1.80 5
7 5 No Guessing (KY) Rosario J Walsh K 3.50 1
9 6 Sally Says So (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Lewis C 9.40 6
10 7 Ata Honour (KY) Olguin G Burnison E 16.30 9
11 8 Stylin Deputy (KY) Flores D Cassidy J 6.20 4
12 9 Happyinexcess (CA) Sorenson D Semkin S 12.00 11
13 10 Lil Troublemaker (CA) Scott J Soto A 78.10 8
14 11 Classic Demand (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.20 2
SCR – Black Point (KY)     – –
SCR – Silent Smoke (CA)     – –
SCR – Snooty Gal (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $9.00 $5.20 $4.00
14 – $6.40 $5.00
4 – – $8.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.20 (7-14)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $240.00 (5-7-7)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 11:45 a.m. post time

January 24, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4-yo’s and up

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#5 Buck’s Bro                                   3/1
#6 Spirit of Cochise                           4/1
#7 Deep Pockets                               2/1

Of the horse who have run, #7 Deep Pockets is by far the quickest out of the gate. But at 6-1/2 furlongs speed is not as valuable as in shorter sprints.

Jockey Joel Rosario has a shot to run down Deep Pockets with #5 Buck’s Bro, who ran an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in his last while going wide on the turn. This horse has the right running style for this distance.

Finally, #6 Spirit of Cochise had trouble at the break in his Dec. 28 debut, but still finished well. He shows some strong workouts and trainer Eoin Harty switches to jockey Garrett Gomez.

I will bet $300 on #5 Buck’s Bro at 2/1 and up and $100 on #6 Spirit of Cochise at 4/1 or better.

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Results, Santa Anita Thursday Race 6 — won $1,400

January 16, 2009 — maidenking

imgres23It seems to me that the stable waited until the last minute to wager on #7 Dish the Dirt. This 4-year-old, who is trained by Peter Eurton and owned by his main man Frank Alesia, opened at just over 10-to-1 and stood at 9-to-1 as the field loaded into the gate. But after Dish the Dirt ran down 4-to-5 shot #9 Lavender Touch in the stretch, she paid a mere $16, or 7-to-1.

I’ll take it though, as I wagered $200 on this filly, who was running in her second race off a long layoff.

Jockey Joel Rosario, broke well with Dish the Dirt, but he grabbed hold of her and she was six lengths behind on the backstretch. She began noticeably accelerating midway on the turn, then unleashed a strong stretch drive in the middle of the track to nail the pace setter for the money.

Jeff Mullins trained #9 Lavender Touch, who sat off the flank of longshot #1 Junior’s Aces before taking the lead at the top of the stretch. She clearly led until a few jumps from the wire, but couldn’t last.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Junior’s Aces (KY) Nakatani C Guillot E 27.10 7
2 2 Sweetpea (FL) Gomez G Robbins J 10.00 3
3 3 Hard Eight (KY) Smith M Headley B 18.40 9
4 4 Keira’s Way (KY) Potts C Lucarelli F 25.90 5
5 5 Justalittlewicked (IL) Scott J Bellasis R 105.00 10
6 6 Kicken Vixen (KY) Bejarano R Canani J 3.60 4
7 7 Dish the Dirt (FL) Rosario J Eurton P 7.00 1
8 8 Spokane Dancer (KY) Garcia M Lucarelli F 69.80 8
9 9 Lavender Touch (KY) Baze M Mullins J 0.90 2
10 10 More Than Music (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 10.50 6
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $16.00 $5.20 $3.60
9 – $2.80 $2.40
2 – – $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $20.30 (7-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $687.80 (10-5-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $382.00 (7-9-2-6)
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Thursday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:36 p.m. post time

January 15, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up, f & m

Possible overlays                                   Morning line

#2 Sweetpea                                               5/1
#7 Dish the Dirt                                            6/1
#9 Lavender Touch                                     5/2

Racing for the second time off a long layoff, #7 Dish the Dirt ran well enough to win at this level when she finished second in her debut. In that race, which was in December 2007, Dish the Dirt ran an 85 Beyer Speed Figure, which exceeds the median of 80 that usually wins at this class level. 

On Dec. 5, #9 Lavender Touch broke about five lengths behind the field, but jockey Michael Baze had a handful of horse all the way up the backstretch. Baze finally let Lavender Touch run in the stretch of this turf sprint and she finished well to be third, running a 74 Beyer. 

The Jay Robbins-trained #2 Sweet Pea was also making her debut in that same race. But it didn’t look like jockey David Flores was asking for much of an effort as she seemed to be breezing most of the way. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.

I will bet $200 on both #7 Dish the Dirt at 7/2 or more and #9 Lavender Touch at 2/1 or better.

If Lavender Touch dips to 9/5 or below, then I will bet $100 on #2 Sweetpea at 3/1 to 6/1 only.

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Results Santa Anita Sunday Race 5 — lost $250

December 29, 2008 — maidenking
imgres2

Bob Baffert had #7 Deep Pockets ready off the long layoff

The horse I bet, #7 Deep Pockets at 7/2, broke alertly and jockey Cory Nakatani chased #2 No Prodical all the way around, finally winning a photo for place at the wire. Trainer Bob Baffert was bringing Deep Pockets off an eight-month layoff, an although his horse won the battle with No Prodigal, Baffert lost the war because a first-time starter named Deputy Flyer blew by both of them in deep stretch.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing.com

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Fractious Child (CA) Potts C Mullins J 40.80 10
2 2 No Prodigal (CA) Flores D Yakteen T 5.50 3
3 3 Deputy Flyer (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 7.40 1
4 4 Spirit of Cochise (CA) Talamo J Harty E 23.30 7
5 5 Kettle Call (CA) Rosario J Gaines C 15.50 8
6 6 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Garcia M Garcia O 5.40 6
7 7 Deep Pockets (CA) Nakatani C Baffert B 3.60 2
9 8 Leavin in a Limo (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 24.40 9
10 9 Cole Rocks (CA) Espinoza V Zucker H 41.90 11
11 10 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.50 5
12 11 Buck’s Bro (CA) Quinonez A Sherlock G 12.90 4
SCR – Arrogant Carson (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $16.80 $7.60 $6.20
7 – $5.80 $3.60
2 – – $4.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $59.30 (3-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $89.80 (4-6-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2811.30 (3-7-2-12)
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

December 28, 2008 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#7 Deep Pockets                                 6/1

I think trainer Bob Baffert will get the job done off the eight month layoff. I will bet $250 on #7 Deep Pockets if he goes off at 2/1 to 9/2 and $100 on him if he is 5/1 or higher.

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Results Santa Anita Saturday Race 3 — Even

December 28, 2008 — maidenking

ahhhhhh-by-rock-and-racehorses3 I was set to bet $300 on #3 Eagle Strike, but he was scratched. Anyway, I was right about two things in this race: that 2/1-shot Cajun Gent and the 5/1 runner Star Time would be bet to low odds, and that they couldn’t compete in maiden special weight races. The winner #7 Temple City paid a paltry $4.40, which illustrates why it’s tough to make a buck in these races for classy older maidens.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wharf Cat (KY) Flores D Marlow M 13.20 4
2 2 Cajun Gent (KY) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 2.10 5
4 3 Star Time (KY) Velazquez J Baffert B 5.60 3
5 4 King of California (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 4.00 2
7 5 Temple City (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 1.20 1
SCR – Witness Protection (KY) Garcia M Frankel R – –
SCR – Eagle Strike (KY) Gomez G Frankel R – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $4.40 $3.20 $2.60
5 – $4.40 $3.40
4 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.90 (7-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $65.50 (2-2-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $28.00 (7-5-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $34.40 (2-7)
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:30 pm post time

December 27, 2008 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6.5 furlongs, 3-yo’s and up

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#3 Eagle Strike                                    4/1

 

Not really a huge fan of these MSW races for older horses because I can’t seem to dig out any profitable angles from them. However, I continue to keep records on them and therefore I can see that some of the horses who figure to be bet have run weak Beyer Speed Figures.  For example, the adjusted median Beyer for this type of race is a 93 and the 5/2 morning line favorite #2 Cajun Gent has never run better than an 82 in his four races. Also, #4 Star Time (4/1 ML) is another who looks like he’ll be dropping into maiden claiming in 2009, as he hasn’t broken an 85 Beyer in his last six races.  

Jockey Garrett Gomez is scheduled to ride #3 Eagle Strike and he and trainer Bobby Frankel are 12 of 28, or 43 percent, when they’ve teamed up at Santa Anita. Eagle Strike is coming off a 15-month layoff, but he ran a 77 Beyer at Belmont Park in Sept. 2007, finishing just a half a length behind Da’Tara, who went on to win the Belmont Stakes.

My thinking is that if Eagle Strike can run a 77 as a 2-year-old then 15 months later it’s not unreasonable to think he can run in the low 90s. Finally, Frankel is 28 percent off a layoff of more than six months.

Also, two Kentucky-bred first time starters, #5 King of California and #7 Temple City, may run huge races.

But I’m sticking with #3 Eagle Strike and will wager $300 to win on him at odds of 3/1 or more.

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