Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — won $1,745

imgres3I wonder how many people looked at their racing forms after this one and wondered how the heck a lightly-raced maiden trained by Mike Mitchell and ridden by Garrett Gomez could go off at 12-to-1.

The money stayed away, I believe, because #12 Grazen was coming into its second lifetime race off a seven-month layoff and had only one swift workout. The $26.60 payoff shows you that when a horse isn’t being bet, then everyone believes its dead on the board and stays away. 

And in most cases, that’s the right thing to do. But great trainers like Mitchell win at such a high percentage that they always need to be respected.

The favorite #9 Raise the River was 7-to-2 on the morning line, but his 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race was like a flashing neon sign that screamed “Bet Me.” He went off at 8-to-5 and Rafael Bejarano was trying to earn his sixth victory of the day, but all he and Raise the River could muster was a second-place finish.

Recently, the Gomez-Mitchell duo has been gold together. Coming into this race, anybody who bet on all of the last 56 horses these two combined on got back $1.29 for every $1 bet.

And that’s strong.

In the race, Gomez broke with #10 M One Rifle and the two dueled down the backstretch. Grazen shook him off in the stretch and drew off to win convincingly.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Grazen and $100 to win on #13 Charlie and Chris. I collected $1,995 and profited $1,745.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Quick Vic (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 28.70 9
3 2 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Espinoza V Garcia O 7.40 5
4 3 Warrens Wild Thing (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 63.70 12
5 4 Teamwork (CA) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 10.70 4
6 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Solis A Barba A 24.00 13
7 6 Cork Creek (CA) Quinonez A Sayler J 56.50 11
8 7 Star Redeemer (CA) Flores D Sadler J 8.80 8
9 8 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 1.60 2
10 9 M One Rifle (CA) Smith M Headley B 7.30 3
11 10 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 45.80 10
12 11 Grazen (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 12.30 1
13 12 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 5.30 7
14 13 Top Biker (CA) Gryder A Mitchell M 39.00 6
SCR Premiere Flyer (CA)    
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $26.60 $11.00 $6.80
9 $3.40 $2.60
10 $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $553.00 (3-3-12)

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

bio_bruceheadley

Trainer Bruce Headley is also the owner of #8 Woman Warrior

Coming into this race, #3 Ruffled Feathers looked like she was going to run big. Trainer Patrick Gallagher switched jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and the filly had improved in each of her two starts.

She was bet to 2-to-1 but broke slowly to be near the back of the field. Approaching the turn, Gomez checked Ruffled Feathers and got into more trouble entering the stretch. At that point. Ruffled Feathers was so far behind that Gomez merely breezed her to the wire.

One horse that didn’t get in trouble was #8 Woman Warrior, a first-time starter trained by Bruce Headley. Alex Solis sat her just off the pace and she was a bit wide on the turn But then she came with a furious stretch rally to mow down #7 Running After Boys.

I was prepared to wager on Ruffled Feathers, but she was below my minimum odds of 5/2. Gold Image, #6, was also out of my range and I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Irridescent Red, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wearehaving Funyet (CA) Hill C Mendoza J 51.90 9
2 2 Metallic Waters (CA) Smith M Baffert B 7.40 6
3 3 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Gomez G Gallagher P 2.30 8
4 4 Kant Catch the Kat (CA) Garcia M Sherman A 19.20 7
5 5 Irridescent Red (CA) Gryder A Becerra R 2.20 5
6 6 Gold Image (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 9.50 3
7 7 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 6.50 2
8 8 Woman Warrior (CA) Solis A Headley B 6.90 1
9 9 Suances Rio (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 24.10 4
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $15.80 $7.40 $4.80
7 $9.60 $6.40
6 $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $62.00 (8-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2981.50 (8-7-6-9)

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#9 Raise the River                                7/2
#12 Grazen                                               6/1
#13 Charlie and Chris                          6/1

It seems to me that horses coming off layoffs don’t do well in races like this and neither do first time starters.That leaves me with one big stick out here: #9 Raise the River.

In his last race, Raise the River ran a 92 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a nose. In seven races, his odds have never been higher than 5-to-2, so the 7-to-2 morning line looks a bit unrealistic even in a 13-horse field. I think bettors will see that big last race Beyer and knock him below 3/1. Bejarano, who has won on 15 of the last 46 Carla Gaines horse he has ridden, will not help the price either.

Mike Mitchell trains #12 Grazen and his second-time starters win at a 39 percent clip, although most of them are maiden claimers. Also, rider Garrett Gomez has won on 21 of the last 56 Mitchell horses he has ridden.

With any improvement and a good trip, #13 Charlie and Chris can get there. He ran an 83 Beyer Speed Figure on Feb. 26, which fits in well here as the median figure needed to win this type of race is an 86.

I will bet $200 to win on #9 Raise the River at 2/1 and up and $150 to win on #12 Grazen at 3/1 or higher. If Raise the River falls below 2/1 then I’ll bet $100 on #13 Charlie and Chris at 7/2 or higher.
  

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, f

Possible overlays                                 Morning line

#3 Ruffled Feathers                                   5/2
#5 Irridescent Red                                     3/1
#6 Gold Image                                           6/1

Of the nine horses in this race, three of them are first-time starters — and I don’t like any of them. That leaves six fillies and mares of which #3 Ruffled Feathers looks to have the best chance to win.

This Patrick Gallagher-trained filly drastically upgrades jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and is on the improve. On March 29, Ruffled Feathers lost ground when she walked out of the gate then swang ultra-wide into the turn.  Because of the bad trip, I adjusted her 69 Beyer Speed Figure to a 74, which is in the range of what it takes to win a race of this class.

Irridescent Red, #5,  ran against Ruffled Feathers last time and she finished second in that March 29 race.  She set the pace and beat Ruffled Feathers by a half a length at the wire.

Coming off a 10-month layoff, #6 Gold Image has great connections. She’s owned by Harris Farms which gives all of their best horses to Carla Gaines. Over the years, Gaines has won with many second timers coming off long layoffs and her winning percentage with jockey Rafael Bejarano is outstanding.

I will bet $250 to win on #3 Ruffled Feathers at 5/2 or more, and $200 to win on #6 Gold Image between the odds of 3/1 and 5/1 only. If Ruffled Feather’s post time odds are 2/1 or less then I will instead bet $150 on #5 Irridescent Red.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $300

Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

When the best horse in the race gets the best trip in the race the other runners don’t stand a chance.

Trained by Sal Gonzalez, #2 Ale’s Pride appeared to be the best horse when examining the past performances, as she earned the top two Beyer Speed Figures. But funny things happen at the race track.

However, nothing unusual happened in this race and if horse racing was this easy we’d all be calling our bets in from our boats docked at the Miami Yacht Club.

As the race began, #4 Irridescent Red went to the front while jockey Joel Rosario, riding Ale’s Pride, was content to sit in the middle of the eight-horse field. But entering the turn, Ale’s Pride scraped the paint to  challenge  the leader up the rail as the two dueled until the top of the stretch.

In the lane, Ale’s Pride was strong and Irredescent Red was no match.

I liked Ale’s Pride, but needed 5-to-2. When her post time odds were 8-to-5, I instead bet $150 on both #5 I Can Hear, at 4/1, and #8 Christy’s Bullet, a 9/2 shot.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Sorenson D Gallagher P 20.80 3
2 2 Ale’s Pride (CA) Rosario J Gonzalez S 1.60 1
3 3 Goal Girl Michele (CA) Stra K Chew M 42.80 5
4 4 Irridescent Red (CA) Talamo J Becerra R 3.10 2
5 5 I Can Hear (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 4.40 4
6 6 Mama Rosa (CA) Bejarano R Abrams B 5.80 6
8 7 Christy’s Bullet (CA) Solis A Dominguez C 4.70 7
SCR Unusual Counter (CA) Delgadillo A Stute M
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
4 $3.80 $3.20
1 $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (2-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $24.00 (8-2-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $234.70

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Ale’s Pride                                   5/2
#5 I Can Hear                                  4/1
#8 Christy’s Bullet                             5/1

On paper, the best horse in this race looks like #2 Ale’s Pride, who has the two top Beyer Speed Figures. But horse races aren’t run on paper, they are run on flat screen televisions and inside of computers.

On Feb. 8, Ale’s Pride ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking outward at the start and running wide in the stretch. I don’t usually question the speed numbers in the racing form, but this one seems a bit high, as Ale’s Pride never got close to this number in her past.

Regardless, based on her Jan. 9 race she would still have the top overall Beyer of this group. Second-time starters #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet wouldn’t need to improve much to win.

I adjusted I Can Hear’s Beyer from 69 to 74 when I added points because of her wide trip and the fact that jockey David Flores chose to duck inside to rally rather than staying on the outside where there are fewer distractions.

At the window, I will bet $200 on #2 Ale’s Pride at 5/2 or more. If she is bet below that, then I will instead wager $150 on both #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet at odds of 3/1 or more.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — lost $200

Mike Smith broke #3 Patriotic Soldier quickly from the gate then won a photo

Mike Smith broke #3 Patriotic Soldier quickly from the gate then won a photo

On Feb. 1, #3 Patriotic Soldier debuted at 6-1/2 furlongs as part of an entry that went off at 7-to-2. But when the gate opened, Patriotic Soldier hopped in the air and was quickly some 10 lengths behind the field.

He made up some ground as the field entered the stretch, but jockey Mike Smith did not push him too hard in the lane.

In the six weeks between then and Sunday, trainer Bruce Headley gave Patriotic Soldier five workouts and three of them were quick ones. So, obviously we saw a different animal on Sunday.

In Sunday’s race, Patriotic Soldier broke with the leaders, held an advantage into the stretch, then battled gamely with #7 Raise the River to the wire where he won the head bob at 9-to-1.

My bets were focused on Raise the River and #8 Ribald who needed to be at least 3/1. I ended up with $200 to win on Ribald at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Drake Lake (CA) Gomez G Sadler J 5.10 10
2 2 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 20.70 7
3 3 Patriotic Soldier (CA) Smith M Headley B 9.80 1
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 38.10 5
5 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Rosario J Barba A 19.40 4
6 6 Sherry’s Reddy (CA) Scott J Aguayo V 109.30 9
7 7 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.20 2
8 8 Ribald (CA) Rios J Sherman A 4.70 6
9 9 Philly Slew (CA) Quinonez A Gregory W 31.80 8
10 10 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.50 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $21.60 $8.60 $4.60
7 $4.00 $2.80
10 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.00 (3-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $824.10 (2-5-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1672.60 (3-7-10-5)
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