Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Ale’s Pride                                   5/2
#5 I Can Hear                                  4/1
#8 Christy’s Bullet                             5/1

On paper, the best horse in this race looks like #2 Ale’s Pride, who has the two top Beyer Speed Figures. But horse races aren’t run on paper, they are run on flat screen televisions and inside of computers.

On Feb. 8, Ale’s Pride ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking outward at the start and running wide in the stretch. I don’t usually question the speed numbers in the racing form, but this one seems a bit high, as Ale’s Pride never got close to this number in her past.

Regardless, based on her Jan. 9 race she would still have the top overall Beyer of this group. Second-time starters #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet wouldn’t need to improve much to win.

I adjusted I Can Hear’s Beyer from 69 to 74 when I added points because of her wide trip and the fact that jockey David Flores chose to duck inside to rally rather than staying on the outside where there are fewer distractions.

At the window, I will bet $200 on #2 Ale’s Pride at 5/2 or more. If she is bet below that, then I will instead wager $150 on both #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet at odds of 3/1 or more.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 2 — lost $500

Baffert and Gomez tandem is the worst kept secret at Santa Anita

The Baffert and Gomez tandem is the worst kept secret at Santa Anita

I think I need to buy a noise maker, or at least a balloon.

It seems like the only appropriate thing to do at a parade.

Since Feb. 15, I have been watching a procession of maiden chalk march into the winner’s circle at Santa Anita. Roll back your mouse wheel to the last nine races bet on this site and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

If you don’t have time to look back, then I’ll tell you: The winners of six of the last nine races I bet paid a stimulus-seeking $5.20 or less, and three of the nine returned no more than $3.20. 

And, of course, I am left with empty pockets because I would never bet a So. Cal. maiden at 2-to-1 or less.

The paltry payoffs began Feb. 15 with High Note’s $5.20, Shock the Board followed at a hefty $30.70, then it was Mr. Holmes, $4.60; Elusive Chief, $7; Zensational, $3.20; Lady Lumberjack, $3; Scored, $14.60 and in race 2 on Saturday, Turk, $3.

To make matters worse, I finished second at fat prices in six of these races, some of which were tight photos. I had Sangaree at 7/1, Shiksa, Off the Wall and Zephaniah — all at 11-to-1, I Can Here at the respectable odds of 7-to-2, and Monolingual at 5-to1. I won with Elusive Chief at 5-to-2 and was waiting to bet monster longshot Shock the Board, but his odds drifted past 20-to-1 two minutes before post.

The damage has amounted to $2,600 in losses so far. I’m confident that these overbet favorites will start to lose sooner or later, but God only knows when.    

And that, my friends, is why you don’t quit your day job.

My bets on Saturday were $250 on both #2 Monolingual and #4 Great Legacy.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.  

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Turk (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1
2 2 Monolingual (KY) Bejarano R Sadler J 5.30 2
3 3 Sweet Maker (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 27.70 3
4 4 Great Legacy (KY) Husbands P Harty E 8.60 6
5 5 Fabulous Forum (TX) Rosario J Miller P 15.30 4
6 6 Caspian (KY) Solis A Hendricks D 4.70 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10
2 $3.80 $3.00
3 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
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