Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32K, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds 

Possible overlays                         Morning line 

#1 Certainly Certain                            3/1
#3 Elessar                                         6/1
#6 Gibson Home Run                           7/2
#7 Chiloquin                                      6/1
#9 B.J.’s Hope                                    6/1

Of the horses with racing experience, the one with the quickest first quarter-mile is the gelding on the rail, #1 Certainly Certain. 

In his last race, Certainly Certain broke from post 9 and had to be used a bit to stay close to the leaders. Entering the turn, Certainly Certain was 4-wide, but jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was able to negotiate his way toward the rail while on the bend. In the stretch, Certainly Certain gamely challenged the ultimate race winner JJ Minister while running a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, which would win most of the races at this level. 

However, this difficult race was on July 21, which was just two weeks ago, therefore Certainly Certain may bounce. 

A see quite a few trainer angles in this race. Kathy Walsh, who saddles #3 Elessar, has a great record with young horses making their second lifetime starts. 

First time starters have not been a good bet at this level since the beginning of 2009. But trainer Peter Miller seems to specialize with young maiden claimers making their first lifetime starts. Between January 2009 and May 2010, Miller won with 5 of 12 maiden claiming debuters that had post time odds between 7/2 and 19/1. In here, Miller saddles first-timer runner #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Another who has a great record with young maiden claimers is Adam Kitchingman, who trains #2 Mi Alma. Although Mi Alma will be ridden by leading jockey Joel Rosario, this gelding is a late foal so I am not interested. 

Finally, trainers that also own a piece of the horse do well in these types of races.  Trainer Scott Hansen is partners on #7 Chiloquin, who is by Tribal Rule. This sire’s 2 year-old and 3-year-old progeny have won 6 of 30 races at first asking recently in Southern California. Hansen doesn’t start many, but he has worked as an assistant to top trainers like Bobby Frankel and Julio Canani. 

At odds of 5/2 or higher, I will wager $600 to win on #1 Certainly Certain. Also, at 4/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $300 to win on whichever horse is the longer price between #3 Elessar and #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Finally, if #7 Chiloquin is 7/1 to 12/1, I will put $100 to win on him.  

If Certainly Certain’s odds are below 5/2, then instead I will change my bets to $400 to win on both #3 Elessar at 7/2 to 9/1 and #6 Gibson Home Run at 7/2 to 19/1; and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 5/1 to 12/1.

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RESULTS: Lost $500 with a $300 win wager on #3 Elessar at 4-1 and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 11-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Certainly Certain (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 1.80 3
3 2 Elessar (KY) Garcia M Walsh K 4.40 2
4 3 Celestic Night (KY) Nakatani C French N 15.60 5
5 4 On Golden Time (CA) Gihua J Aguayo V 47.60 9
6 5 Gibson Home Run (FL) Valenzuela P Miller P 2.80 1
7 6 Chiloquin (CA) Pedroza M Hansen S 11.30 4
8 7 Unbridled Score (CA) Rivera C Stute M 45.50 6
9 8 B. J.’s Hope (KY) Espinoza V Velasquez D 5.40 7
10 9 Express Train (KY) Garcia J Bernstein D 20.00 8
SCR Mi Alma (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $7.60 $5.00 $3.40
3 $5.40 $3.00
1 $2.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $742.50 (6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.60 (6-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $712.70 (1-6-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $633.10 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1176.00 (6-3-1-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $296.00 (6-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $37.40 (6-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $26.40 (6-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $140.20 (4-1-6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $22113.60 (4-1-6-1-6/10/11/12-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $20.60 (3-6)

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Two reasons to smile

Jockey Christian Santiago Reyes poses with two women at Del Mar

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2
2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5
3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6
5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7
6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1
7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4
8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8
9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9
10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10
11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11
12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3
SCR Unbridled Brew (CA)    
SCR A Soft Breeze (FL)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80
1 $6.60 $4.40
12 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot                   5/1
#3 Royally Large                            8/1
#4 De Car Chic                              20/1
#7 Right to Work                            8/1
#8 Salty Fries                                9/2
#10 Boots n’ Bangles                       20/1
#11 Miss Salt Mine                          7/2

This race is full of money making angles and I can see any of seven of the 12 runners winning it. When wagering, I will consult the odds board for clues and to determine value.

First-time starter #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot breaks from the rail for trainer Mike Mitchell, who has an excellent record with debut horses in this class. Garrett Gomez has won on both first timers that he rode for Mitchell and the owners, Vessels Stallion Farm, is also 2-for-2 with debuters.

Jeff Mullins is another trainer who does well with maiden claiming first-time starters. Mullins saddles #3 Royally Large, who is owned by David Lanzman Racing Stable and that outfit frequently wins first time out. 

An early foal, #4 De Car Chic is another filly making her first start. She’s been working out well and I’ll need to see the tote board for more clues.

I most likely won’t be betting #7 Right to Work, who is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes. However, if she’s bet below 5-to-1 she becomes a player.

Second-time starter #8 Salty Fries ships in from the Northern California fair circuit.  She ran decently on July 2 and now adds blinkers while dropping in class. 

Owners D & E Racing usually employ Bob Baffert to train their stock, but this time former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen gets the call. Their debuter #10 Boots n’ Bangles has been working out at San Luis Rey Downs and is a good bet if the price is right.

Trainer Mike Puype won with four of his last six maiden claiming second timers that were dropping in class. Although, unlike #11 Ms. Salt Mine, most of them were coming off long layoffs. In Ms. Salt Mine’s first race on July 2 she dueled for the lead for a quarter mile and showed much better early speed than any of the other experienced runners in this race.

With so many horses to like, it complicates the win wagering. My best bet is #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and I will put $300 on her at 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 if she drifts to 10/1 and up. My second choice is #11 Ms. Salt Mine and I’ll take $250 to win on her at 3/1 to 9/1 only.

If either of those two horses are out of the betting zone, then I will put $200 to win on both #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries at 4/1 to 10/1, and $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. But if both #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and #11 Ms. Salt Mine have bettable odds then I’ll put only $100 on #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries and bump their acceptable odds to 7/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #4 De Car Chic and #10 Boots n’ Bangles are 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll put $150 to win on them both regardless of anything else.

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