Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9
2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6
3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10
4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5
5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8
6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2
7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1
8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4
9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7
10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60
6 $9.40 $6.80
10 $16.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
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Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $150

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

In a ride that would have made Calvin Borel proud, jockey Joe Talamo steered #11 Subpoena the Dress onto the rail on the turn then gunned her up the inside in the stretch to win going away at 9-to-2.

As the race began, Subpoena the Dress broke alertly on the outside then faded toward the back of the pack, far behind pace setters #6 Eclipse Sarah and #7 Kaylie’s Joy.

Garrett Gomez tracked the leaders in third with #4 Brilliant Response at 9-to-2 and she surged three-wide on the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch. But just as she had in her previous two races, Brilliant Response had nothing in the lane and could only muster a third-place finish.

Trainer Tim Yakteen, who has two wins at Del Mar from just a handful of starters, had #8 Makit Till Midnite ready to run. This 16-to-1 shot came on the outside with a steady rally to capture the place money.

A well-bet 2-to-1 shot, #1 Lady Alex was a recent claim by John Sadler and she seemed to have tons of run while jockey Joel Rosario sat her on the rail in fourth. But in the stretch Lady Alex was pinned behind a wall of horses and didn’t find running room until it was too late. 

I had a lot of betting scenarios that were tied to the post time odds. In the end, I ended up  with $150 to win on #7 Kaylie’s Joy at 4-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lady Alex (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.00 5
2 2 Angel of Mystery (CA) Espinoza V Marquez A 9.90 7
3 3 Straight Sue (CA) Vergara O Fanning J 33.80 11
4 4 Brilliant Response (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 4.60 3
5 5 Party With Brando (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 28.50 4
6 6 Eclipse Syrah (CA) Baze T Sherlock G 18.80 10
7 7 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 4.30 8
8 8 Makit Till Midnite (CA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 16.30 2
9 9 Mystic Trip (CA) Stra K Martin, Jr. F 61.60 9
10 10 Alphabet Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 21.30 6
11 11 Subpoena the Dress (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $11.60 $6.80 $4.60
8 $15.40 $8.00
4 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $105.90 (11-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.50 (6-8-11)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15221.90 (11-8-4-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $749.10 (11-8-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $68.40 (8-11)
$2.00 Quinella paid $139.00 (8-11)

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:11 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Atlantic Victory                8/1
#2 Fire Scout                       9/2
#3 Reiterate                        15/1
#6 Jamieson                         7/2
#7 Dirt Diver                         6/1
#8 El Noche                          8/1

Howard Zucker trains #6 Jamieson and if he has this colt at his best off a year layoff then this race will be over very quickly. Jaimeson showed good speed in February of 2008 when he missed by a neck in a maiden claiming $40,000 contest. These days, he’s showing nothing but slow workouts, but Zucker may have intentionally kept things at a snail’s pace to keep away pari-mutuel attention on race day.

Another coming off a recent layoff is #2 Fire Scout, who showed early speed on April 29 before fading in the stretch. Trainer Brian Koriner switches jockeys to Joe Talamo, and together they have an outstanding record. In 2008-09, the Koriner-Talamo team combined for 32 wins out of 141 runners, or 23 percent. Betting all 141 runners yielded $1.24 for every $1 wagered. 

Two recently raced maidens who could hit the wire first are #1 Atlantic Victory and #7 Dirt Diver. Atlantic Victory would need to improve by only a length or two off his April 2 Beyer Speed Figure of 66 to win, while Dirt Diver’s debut might be good enough to get the job done.

Longshot possibilities include second-time starter #8 El Noche, who popped out of the gate first in a 7 furlong race on May 16 and he adds blinkers today. Also, low-profile trainer Richard Rosales saddles first timer #5 Reiterate. Rosales doesn’t win many, but when he does the tote board lights up like a Christmas tree.

I will bet $400 on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $300 at 4/1 to 9/1. Also, I’ll take $250 on #2 Fire Scout at 2/1 to 5/1 only.

If either Jamieson or Fire Scout is bet below 2/1, then I will substitute $150 to win on #7 Dirt Diver at 7/2 or greater. Also, only if Jamieson or Fire Scout are below 2/1, I will take $50 longshot plays on #5 Reiterate and #8 El Noche at 6/1 or more.

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