Eastward Ho

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

ACY_HILT-exter-1[1]With airlines competing for passengers, I was able to get a ticket from Las Vegas to Philadelphia for just $99. I figured why should I pay $175 for a direct flight to Boston when I can land in Philly, hit Atlantic City for a day then then drive up the Jersey Shore to Monmouth Park.

monmouth-park[1]So, on Thursday that’s what I’m going to do. After Monmouth, I’ll loop around and possibly check out some Jersey Shore beach towns before catching a Saturday evening flight from Philadelphia to Boston, which was only $59.

On Aug. 29, I am hoping to be at Saratoga’s Travers Stakes.

Since I won’t be in Las Vegas, I won’t be blogging about maidens from Del Mar for a couple of weeks. But I will try to put up some photos of anything interesting I might come across.

Horse gets a bath in saddling area at Saratoga.

Horse gets a bath in saddling area at Saratoga.

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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $400

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

garrettgomez25_mjm[1]

Riding for trainer Jack Carava, Garrett Gomez got #12 Lunar Humor up in the final strides

Three horses were dropping into maiden claiming $25,000 for the first time after running decently against classier animals. And #12 Lunar Humor, #2 Al N Con and #4 Morton Owen finished 1-2-3.

 Trainer Jack Carava ran Lunar Humor against maiden special weight company until his fifth race. But when the gelding could finish no better than third in four straight races, Carava began descending the class ladder.

In the maiden claiming ranks last May and June, Lunar Humor ran low-to-mid 70 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing second two times — first for $80,000 claiming and then for $40,000. On July 24 something curious happened, as jockey Michael Baze merely breezed Lunar Humor in the stretch, which caused the Beyer to sink to an all-time low of 63.

I am sure that the low last-race Beyer kept some betting money off of Lunar Humor, a 3-to-1 shot, despite the presence of jockey Garrett Gomez, who has a large following. In a recent TVG video, Carava — who is the son of a horse trainer — said that he enjoys picking spots for his runners, strategizing and compared horse racing to poker.

So maybe, just maybe, Carava was “strategizing” by breezing his horse in the stretch, so it would pay a good price when he picked his spot on the drop.

This race began with #2 Al N Con, #8 She Made Me Do It and #11 Cafe Con Leche all battling head-to-head down the backstretch.  Al N Con, who had led in his last two races against $40,000 maiden claimers, shook clear by a length on the bend, as Cafe Con Leche kept chasing.

As the field swung into the lane, Morton Owen and Joel Rosario were making a move some eight paths wide with Lunar Humor also coming on just inside of him. They had to make up four lengths on Al N Con, 4/1, at the top of the stretch.

When Joe Talamo rode Al N Con past the sixteenth pole, he still had what appeared to be a safe 2-length lead. But Lunar Humor came with a late charge to get up with two jumps to go.

Despite being extremely wide, Morton Owen, at 9-to-2, only missed by two lengths.

I bet $400 on Morton Owen because he had lots of positive long-term betting angles going for him. This gelding was 3-to-1 on the morning line, but was cold on the board throughout the betting period and ended up at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Deltamax (FL) Gryder A Cerin V 30.20 11
2 2 Al N Con (CA) Talamo J Rosales R 4.10 2
3 3 Joys Last One (CA) Stra K Martinez S 65.30 10
4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 4.50 3
5 5 Spartan Jet (KY) Pedroza M Lopez J 41.60 7
6 6 Smokenomore (CA) Garcia M Spawr W 6.50 4
7 7 Warren’s Juan (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 37.10 8
8 8 She Made Me Do It (CA) Blanc B Bacorn H 16.80 12
9 9 Secret Lure (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 21.80 6
10 10 Yrunvs M. B. (CA) Valdez F Becerra R 27.30 9
11 11 Cafe Con Leche (KY) Quinonez A Miller P 3.70 5
12 12 Lunar Humor (KY) Gomez G Carava J 3.20 1
SCR – Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R – –
SCR – Objectified (CA) Baze T West T – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $8.40 $4.40 $3.20
2 – $5.20 $3.60
4 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.30 (12-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.60 (7-1-12)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $264.80 (12-2-4-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $40.90 (12-2-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $51.20 (1-12)
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.20 (2-12)
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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses — #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7
2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3
3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2
4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4
5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6
6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5
7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60
3 – $4.20 $2.80
2 – – $5.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)
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Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 7 — lost $500

August 19, 2009 — maidenking
Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

It really made sense for the Bob Baffert-trained #12 Marcello to win this race. In his only lifetime start on July 25, Marcello lagged at the back of the back then came with a strong rally at 5-1/2 furlongs to get fourth.

Garrett Gomez is all out on #12 Marcello to hold off #9 Pulsion

Click photo for view of the finish

The winner that day, Tiny Woods, was another colt out of the Baffert barn who led wire-to-wire. Marcello’s running style didn’t fit at that short sprint distance, but it was perfect for Saturday’s 6-1/2 furlongs.

In the race, Marcello broke alertly then settled in fourth place, as #2 Our Crazy Monkey led down the backstretch. Jockey Garrett Gomez — who was likely the reason Marcello’s post time odds were crushed to 1-to-2 — began his wide move as the horses approached the turn.

Our Crazy Monkey gave the lead up quickly and had no chance of staying with Marcello. But #9 Pulsion, another second-timer, had lots of fight in him and really showed up ready to run.

Pulsion, a 9-to-1 shot who was adding blinkers for trainer Patrick Biancone, closed into Marcello’s 2-length lead with every stride as the wire approached. But Marcello hung on by a nose in a dramatic photo finish.

I liked Marcello but his short price forced me to look elsewhere. So, I spread $500 out over three first timers. #3 Poker Trick, at 14/1, #6 Erbeia, 11/1, and #10 We Will Rock, 12/1. However, none of them fired.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Our Crazy Monkey (NY) Pedroza M O’Neill D 18.90 3
3 2 Poker Trick (FL) Baze T O’Neill D 14.30 10
1 3 Viva Macho (FL) Baze M Cho M 44.10 6
4 4 Mr. Saturdaynight (KY) Talamo J Sadler J 11.70 7
5 5 Quietly Waiting (KY) Garcia M Knapp S 44.60 11
6 6 Erbeia (KY) Nakatani C Mandella R 11.10 8
7 7 Nuggets Please (NM) Kaenel K Leonard R 51.90 9
8 8 Came Aboard (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez J 30.80 4
9 9 Pulsion (FL) Smith M Biancone P 9.50 2
10 10 We Will Rock (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 12.90 5
12 11 Marcello (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1
SCR – Retired American (MD)     – –
SCR – Undaunted Rally (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $3.00 $2.60 $2.20
9 – $6.60 $4.60
2 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $152.40 (1-1-12)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1255.90 (12-9-2-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $136.00 (12-9-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $41.40 (1-12)
$2.00 Quinella paid $14.60 (9-12)
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Masked man

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Rafael Bejarano will ride with a protective face mask when he returns from injury Aug. 28.

Jockey Rafael Bejarano will ride with a protective face mask when he returns from injury Aug. 28. Bejarano broke his jaw, cheek and nose when his mount Mi Rey went down on Del Mar's Opening Day.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#2 Al N Con                                  5/1
#4 Morton Owen                            5/2
#6 Smokenomore                           12/1
#12 Lunar Humor                            3/1

Mike Mitchell leads over #4 Morton Owen. While it’s true that this gelding has had six chances to break his maiden and couldn’t get the job done. And that he was bet below 4-to-1 in his last four starts.

It is also true that this 3-year-old is coming off of a four-month freshening and is dropping in class to his lowest lifetime level. Furthermore, the 74 Beyer Speed Figure Morton Owen ran in February equates to an 83 after adding on six points for growth in his 3-year-old season and three more points for a wide trip.

If Morton Owen can run in the neighborhood of an 83 Beyer then he’ll be very tough considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is just a 74.

Another who I give a chance to is #2 Al N Con. He’s also running in a $25,000 maiden claimer for the first time. On July 29, he tired after a speed duel in a maiden claiming $35,000 sprint to earn a 71 Beyer. With softer early fractions, Al N Con may be able to run a 77.

Lastly, Jack Carava, the trainer of #12 Lunar Humor, changes jockeys from Michael Baze to Garrett Gomez. Looking at the July 24 race replay, it appears that Lunar Humor breezed in the stretch. In the past, Lunar Humor has earned low-to-mid 70s Beyer figures, which may be enough to win if Morton Owen and Al N Con aren’t at their best.

I will bet $400 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 9/1 and $100 on #2 Al N Con at 9/2 and above. If Morton Owen’s odds are out of the zone, then I will substitute $200 to win on #12 Lunar Humor at 2/1 and up.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays             Morning line

#2 Dixie’s Sandals                     8/1
#3 Seriously                             3/1
#4 Star of Sapphire                   4/1
#5 Vivacious Anna                    8/1

Although #6 Imperatriz showed good speed in her debut and lasted for second, this filly had an easy trip yet didn’t run anywhere close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 80 for this class.

If the public sends Imperatriz off at close to her 5-to-2 morning line then I will enthusiastically bet against both her and #7 It Tiz, a first time starter who is 4-to-1 on the early line.

Much better potential wagers are #2 Dixie’s Sandals, #4 Star of Sapphire and #5 Vivacious Anna. Also, the Bob Baffert-trained #3 Seriously obviously has a decent shot, but she may be overbet.

Jockey Mike Smith rode Seriously in her debut, but now he shows up on Star of Sapphire, who’s been working out well. Star of Sapphire has a few good betting angles going for her.

Doug O’Neill saddles #5 Vivacious Anna and O’Neill has done well with this type of maiden in the past. Finally, Dixie Sandals has mostly slow workouts, but she fits the profile of a winning debuter — but only if she falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 betting range.

I will bet $250 to win on #4 Star of Sapphire at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on #5 Vivacious Anna at 5/1 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 Dixie’s Sandals at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the public goes overboard on Star of Sapphire and bets her below 7-to-2, then I will instead substitute $200 to win on #3 Seriously at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

August 15, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Poker Trick                            7/2
#6 Erbeia                                   9/2
#9 Pulsion                                  8/1
#10 We Will Rock                8/1
#12 Marcello                               3/1

In his first lifetime race on July 25, #12 Marcello sat at the back of the 10-horse field before accellerating four-wide on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Garrett Gomez ducked Marcello to the inside and closed more than three lengths.

On that day, trainer Bob Baffert also saddled the wire-to-wire winning favorite Tiny Woods, so Marcello might not have been well meant. This 6-1/2 furlong distance seems to fit his running style much better.

However, Gomez might cause Marcello to be overbet.

Doug O’Neill is training three first-time starters in this one: #2 Our Crazy Monkey, #3 Poker Trick and #10 We Will Rock. I don’t like Crazy Monkey, but will bet on Poker Trick and We Will Rock if the odds are decent.

Other colts who deserve consideration are #6 Erbeia and #9 Pulsion. Richard Mandella, the trainer of Erbeia is winning at 20 percent for the year, but Pulsion’s trainer Patrick Biancone is struggling at 8 percent since coming off his suspension for possessing cobra venom.

I will bet $250 on Marcello at odds of 5/2 and above. Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Poker Trick at 7/2 to 19/1, and $200 on #10 We Will Rock at 5/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #6 Erbeia is 10/1 to 19/1 I will bet $150 to win on him. And only if Marcello is bet below 5/2 will I put $150 to win on #9 Pulsion at 5/2 to 7/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Living large

August 15, 2009 — maidenking
Is this the lifestyle of a Thoroughbred owner? At Del Mar it is.

Is this the lifestyle of a Thoroughbred owner? At Del Mar it is.

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Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 2 — won $1,820

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

moneyman[1]This appeared to be a weak field for the level because none of these runners approached the median 82 Beyer Speed Figure that’s usually needed to win.

Surprisingly, the public settled on #5 Rented Cop as the 8-to-5 favorite. I assume it was because Rented Cop was dropping from maiden special weight into claiming. Although this gelding showed some speed in his debut, he really had not shown much overall promise.

Rented Cop’s 43 and 64 Beyer Speed Figures were nothing special and he was an easy favorite to wager against. On the rail, #1 Crazy Wager was 10 or 11 paths wide entering the stretch in his last, so I bumped his speed figure from 66 to 76 to make up for the lost ground.

And #7 Final Journey could have been any kind. He ran OK in his only lifetime start last February, but his workouts were all slow ones. Regardless, I gave trainer Marty Jones the benefit of the doubt.

In the race, apprentice jockey Christian Reyes-Santiago went right to the lead with 18-to-1 shot #3 Del Mar Express. The only problem with that strategy is that early speed is not as valuable at 6-1/2 furlongs as it is at shorter distances. Before even hitting the turn, Del Mar Express was tackled by #2 Velikaya on the inside and Rented Cop on the outside.

Del Mar Express backed up fast on the turn while Rented Cop continued to duke it out with Velikaya. By this time, Final Journey had worked his way through the pack to be third at the top of the stretch.

At 7-to-1, Final Journey rallied to the lead at the eighth pole and Crazy Wager, at 9-to-2, also showed a good late kick to get second.

I bet $400 on Crazy Wager and $300 on Final Journey. I got back $2,520 for a gain of $1,820.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Crazy Wager (CA) Baze M Becerra R 4.30 2
2 2 Velikaya (CA) Rosario J Moger, Jr. E 9.00 5
3 3 Del Mar Express (CA) Santiago Reyes C Mendoza J 18.60 6
4 4 Philly Slew (CA) Baze T Gregory W 5.20 4
5 5 Rented Cop (CA) Nakatani C Pender M 1.70 3
6 6 Comic Thunder (CA) Kaenel K Periban J 4.00 7
7 7 Final Journey (CA) Talamo J Jones M 7.40 1
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $16.80 $6.60 $3.80
1 – $4.60 $3.40
5 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.50 (7-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $153.00 (7-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $69.20 (3-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $34.40 (1-7)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 10 — won $400

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

One%20Hundred%20Dollar%20Bill[1]Last summer, #12 Legend of My Own ran 76 and 73 Beyer Speed Figures in two consecutive maiden special weight races, but then tailed off into the 60’s while racing three times against maiden claimers.

Something was obviously wrong. So, trainer Jeff Mullins gave Legend of My Own eight months off and the gelding responded well by coming back in June to run a 76 Beyer.

Breaking from the outside in Sunday’s race, Legend of My Own was able to avoid trouble from a spill. Alex Solis shot #3 Endless Moon up the inside to the lead, but the gelding went head over heels soon after. Solis’ body tumbled to the ground as the other 10 horses attempted to avoid him.

But #8 Captain Cash slammed into the rolling Endless Moon causing that horse to fall and tossing Aaron Gryder. Luckily, neither of the jockeys were seriously hurt.

As the race continued, longshot #1 Richardminichiello led down the backside, but was overtaken by #10 Afleet Hopetown who took the field to top of the stretch. On the turn, #6 Pinstripe Kid made a move on the inside and Legend of My Own went with him.

In deep stretch, Pinstripe Kid briefly held the lead but succumbed to Legend of My Own, who was just too good.

I bet $300 on Legend of My Own and $200 on Pinstripe Kid. I collected $900 and profited $400.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 64.30 8
2 2 Ryland (CA) Garcia M Yakteen T 37.90 6
3 3 Endless Moon (KY) Solis A Lewis L 4.70 11
4 4 Mister Jo Jangles (KY) Kaenel K Fulmer D 60.80 7
6 5 Pinstripe Kid (CA) Santiago Reyes C Morey, Jr. W 4.50 2
8 6 Captain Cash (KY) Gryder A Harty E 10.40 10
9 7 Whizer (CA) Stra K Bradvica L 19.40 4
10 8 Afleet Hopetown (KY) Delgadillo A Capestro P 14.60 3
11 9 Lucky B Lou (CA) Quinonez A Schiewe P 57.90 9
12 10 Legend of My Own (CA) Rosario J Mullins J 2.00 1
14 11 Strong Belief (KY) Baze T West T 3.30 5
SCR – Peeka Buddha (KY)     – –
SCR – Tralee Creek (KY) Arambula P DeLima J – –
SCR – Surprisefor Toulla (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $6.00 $3.20 $2.60
6 – $4.80 $4.00
10 – – $7.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $14.00 (12-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $12.90 (10-6-12)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $177.60 (4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/7/12/1
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $28318.90 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1537.30 (12-6-10-9-14)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $595.00 (12-6-10-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $109.60 (12-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $15.20 (6-12)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $113.40 (9-3/5-4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11540.00 (9-3/5-4-2
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Trainer Eric Guillot thought enough of Champagne d’Oro to enter her in both the Cinderella Stakes and the Landaluce off a second-place finish in a maiden race.

In the Cinderella, Champagne d”Oro was in tight at the five-sixteenths pole, but earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure when she finished third. Considering the median winning Beyer for maiden special weight is just an 81, Champagne d’Oro looked to be a strong contender.

She didn’t disappoint.

From the outset, Champagne d’Oro was ready to run. She broke alertly when the bell rang and eased to the lead on the backstretch with little encouragement from rider Martin Garcia. She knocked heads with first-time starter #10 Stockings on the turn. But even so, Garcia was sitting chilly in the saddle, while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was riding hard on Stockings.

Once Garcia let loose in the lane, Champagne d’Oro opened up on the field and won easily.

In the race preview, I noted Champagne d’Oro’s potential superiority, but figured her odds would not be high enough. In the end, I bet $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Hondo’s Way (KY) Espinoza V Mandella R 18.20 6
2 2 Pure Class (KY) Smith M Sadler J 3.60 5
4 3 Saint Isabelle (KY) Talamo J Puype M 23.90 4
5 4 Champagne d’Oro (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 2.10 1
6 5 Go Ask Alex (KY) Delgadillo A Glenney J 38.20 8
7 6 Softly Singing (KY) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 2.80 2
8 7 Miss Peanut (CA) Stra K Martinez S 61.40 9
9 8 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 6.20 10
10 9 Stockings (KY) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 13.80 3
11 10 Pulpit Magic (KY) Solis A Dominguez C 20.10 7
SCR – Back Nine Doc (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $6.20 $3.40 $2.80
7 – $4.00 $3.40
10 – – $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.50 (5-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s +

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Crazy Wager                           4/1
#4 Philly Slew                              7/2
#7 Final Journey                           5/1

In his last race on July 20, #1 Crazy Wager was toward the back of the pack then started his run on the turn. But halfway on the bend, he was extremely wide — maybe in the 10 or 11 path — but still earned a respectable 66 Beyer Speed Figure.

Conservatively, I bumped the figure up to a 76, which just might be good enough to win this race if none of the others throws in a monster effort.

Another who has a shot is #4 Philly Slew, who earned a 73 Beyer on April 22. However, in his last race on July 12, Philly Slew could only muster a 66 Beyer after saving ground all the way on the rail.

The Marty Jones-trained #7 Final Journey may be the best betting proposition. This gelding, who is coming off a long layoff for his second lifetime start, has nothing but slow workouts. With no world beaters in here, it seems like a good spot for Jones to spring a surprise.

I will bet $400 to win on #1 Crazy Wager at 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 to win on #7 Final Journey at 2/1 to 9/1.  At 10/1 or more on either, my bet reduces to $100.

Also, if #1 Crazy Wager goes off at 2/1 or less then I will play $200 on #4 Philly Slew at 3/1 or more instead.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

August 12, 2009 — maidenking

64_D0F8F8D9_A7ACD_B1186_72000_3BA864B05_large[1]

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7
2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10
3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9
4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8
5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6
6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1
7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2
9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5
10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3
11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4
12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12
13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11
SCR – De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M – –
SCR – Swingin Jim (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80
7 – $5.60 $4.40
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)
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Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4
2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3
4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1
5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5
6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6
7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40
2 – $4.00 $3.00
3 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — won $180

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

1980detrDespite traffic problems in the lane, #10 Purse Luva easily ran by leader #11 Cardiff Giant to win impressively.

Jockey Victor Espinoza broke Purse Luva toward the rear of this 12-horse field, as #3 Action Call, #4 Gilligan and #6 Catch My Tale all dueled for the lead. Coming into the race, trainer Caesar Dominguez dropped Purse Luva in class from maiden $50,000 claimer for his second lifetime start and added blinkers.

As the field toiled in deep stretch, the inflection in race caller Trevor Denman’s seemed to indicate he believed first-time starter #11 Cardiff Giant’s two-length lead would hold. But Purse Luva found running room and came off the rail, which opened Denman’s eyes. He called out: “Now, out of nowhere, Purse Luva. And Purse Luva looking like he just jumped in at the eighth pole. Just goes right on by.”

Cardiff Giant, from the hot Peter Miller barn, was bet to 7-to-2 and ran well but his wide trip likely compromised his finish.

I bet $150 on three horses #10 Purse Luva, at 3/1; #3 Action Call, a 9/1 shot; and debuter #5 Haimish Hy, at 13/1. I collected $630, but only profited $180 after subtracting out the $450 in bets.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Senor Crafty (CA) Kaenel K Alcala J 8.50 5
2 2 Happy Hands (UT) Atkinson P Stute G 44.90 12
3 3 Action Call (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Solis W 9.00 9
4 4 Gilligan (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 5.50 7
5 5 Haimish Hy (KY) Quinonez A Sherman A 13.70 3
6 6 Catch My Tale (KY) Valdez F Talbot S 24.70 6
7 7 Zagora’s Pride (NM) Santiago Reyes C Gonzalez S 33.20 10
8 8 Straightomidnight (CA) Berrio O Avila A 10.80 11
9 9 Golden Boy Mark (CA) Baze M Pender M 14.60 4
10 10 Purse Luva (KY) Espinoza V Dominguez C 3.20 1
11 11 Cardiff Giant (KY) Baze T Miller P 3.80 2
12 12 Suitcase Simpson (CA) Pedroza M Harrington M 11.90 8
SCR – Ministerfrommiami (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Single Prince (CA) Pedroza M DeLima J – –
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $8.40 $4.20 $3.40
11 – $4.80 $4.00
5 – – $8.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.60 (10-11)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $98.70 (8-2-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $733.50 (7-8-2-10/13/14)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $5253.00 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16306.40 (10-11-5-9-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2517.10 (10-11-5-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $219.60 (10-11-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $40.80 (2-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11292.40 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/1
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $202.60 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/13/
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.00 (10-11)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

August 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2
2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5
3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6
5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7
6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1
7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4
8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8
9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9
10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10
11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11
12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3
SCR – Unbridled Brew (CA)     – –
SCR – A Soft Breeze (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80
1 – $6.60 $4.40
12 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

August 9, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Endless Moon                      5/1
#6 Pinstripe Kid                        5/1
#8 Captain Cash                       6/1
#12 Legend of My Own              7/2
#14 Strong Belief                      9/2

This race has a few possible winners and #12 Legend of My Own looks like a strong play at 2-to-1 or more.

This 4-year-old gelding, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is making his eighth start and his fourth at this class. But on June 27, Legend of My Own came off an eight-month layoff  to rally powerfully in a 6-furlong race. He not only has the right running style for this distance, but Legend of My Own also ran a series of Beyer Speed Figures last summer that are fast enough to win this.

A couple of stall doors down, #14 Strong Belief was competitive with Legend of My Own on June 27 when the two were separated by less than a length. However, jockey Christian Santiago Reyes jumps from Strong Belief to ride #6 Pinstripe Kid.

It’s possible Pinstripe Kid is far better than he looks. This gelding ran a 68 Beyer as a 2-year-old last summer and it’s logical that his natural growth  allows him to run in the low 80s now.

Another coming off a long layoff is #8 Captain Cash. Trained by Eoin Harty, this horse has been working out well and showed speed before dumping the jock in his last race in November.

Finally, #3 Endless Moon is a second-time starter that is dropping in class after not disgracing himself in a turf sprint.

I rank the horses this way: #12 Legend of My Own, #6 Pinstripe Kid, #14 Strong Belief, #3 Endless Moon and #8 Captain Cash.

I will bet $300 to win on #12 Legend of My Own at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and $200 on #6 Pinstripe Kid at 2/1 to 9/1. If Legend of My Own drifts to 4/1 to 9/1, then I’ll reduce my wager to $200. If either of them are less than 2/1, then I will replace that individual horse with $150 to win on #14 Strong Belief at 3/1 to 9/1,  or if that one isn’t in the zone then I’ll play $150 on #3 Endless Moon at 5/2 to 7/1.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 8, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#4 Saint Isabelle                         10/1
#5 Champagne d’Oro                    3/1
#9 The Great Atlantic                   5/1
#11 Pulpit Magic                          15/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 81 and #5 Champagne d”Oro ran a 76 and 77 in two of her three lifetime races.  Her last two runs were in the Cinderella Stakes on June 11 and the Landaluce on July 12, so this is a bit of a class drop.

This filly may win, but I expect her odds will be too low for a bet.

Of the five first-time starters scheduled to go, #4 Saint Isabelle is the best bet, but only if the price is right.

One horse who will likely be a bad wager is the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained #7 Softly Singing. No doubt this filly has been working out ultra impressively and her past performances are loaded with speedy drills and bullet works. The problem is that the public loves this type of first-time starter and she is almost certain to be bet below 7-to-2.

She will probably hit the board and even if she wins, Softly Singing’s odds won’t compensate for the risk.  The public will also probably overbet #2 Pure Class for the same reasons they like Softly Singing.

Five of these fillies have racing experience and #5 The Great Atlantic showed quick early speed in her first race on July 26. She could win at a decent price.

Finally, #11 Public Magic, a second time starter, has an outside shot if bet below 20/1.

I will put $200 to win on #4 Saint Isabelle at 7/2 to 19/1, I want $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic at 7/2 and up and $100 on #11 Pulpit Magic at 5/2 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez — a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year — will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: “(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »
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