Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 8 — lost $290

August 3, 2010 — maidenking

Joel Rosario won Wednesday's 8th race for trainer Peter Miller aboard #13 Offlee Wild Boys.

Anybody wagering on these maiden races better take a close look at the horse jockey Joel Rosario is riding. Rosario’s new agent Ronnie Ebanks called him the best young rider he has ever seen, and I am starting to believe him.

Coming into the race, #13 Offlee Wild Boys had competed four times in maiden special weight company, showing speed in most of those events before fading. In this $40,000 maiden claiming race, the switch to Rosario and the drop in class were helpful, as Offlee Wild Boys broke on top then settled two lengths off a three-way speed duel on the backstretch.

Rosario made his move three paths wide on the turn and blew by leaders #6 Bold Fresh and #1 Tahoe Yodeler by the time the field hit the top of the lane. Offlee Wild Boys stayed strong in the stretch without being challenged to prevail by 2-1/2 lengths.  

Before the race, I was watching the odds on a pair of first time starters — #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob for possible bets. Also, #1 Tahoe Yodeler, #9 Beer Friday and #12 Swiss Tart were all possibilities at the right odds.

However, only Call Me Later, at 5/1, fell into the odds range. He ran in the middle of the pack then made a mild run to finish fourth without ever challenging for the win.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Tahoe Yodeler (CA) Quinonez A Bonde J 7.30 5
2 2 Red Mountain (CA) Gonzalez A Dahl T 47.90 11
3 3 Trouble Rules (CA) Smith M Fanning J 16.30 7
4 4 Swiss Hero (CA) Bejarano R Periban J 14.70 2
5 5 Call Me Later (CA) Talamo J Hollendorfer J 5.40 4
6 6 Bold Fresh (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 13.30 10
7 7 Curly Boy (CA) Valdez F Moger, Jr. E 31.70 8
8 8 Destined Journey (CA) Atkinson P Aguayo V 50.40 9
9 9 Beer Friday (CA) Blanc B Lloyd J 29.30 12
10 10 Warrens Heartthrob (CA) Verenzuela J Sise, Jr. C 21.10 6
12 11 Swiss Tart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 1.80 3
13 12 Offlee Wild Boys (CA) Rosario J Miller P 3.60 1
SCR – Georgia’s Friend (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
13 $9.20 $5.20 $3.60
4 – $10.60 $4.80
12 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $654.55 (10-9-1-13)
$1.00 Exacta paid $45.50 (13-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $247.70 (9-1-13)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $3507.50 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1967.20 (13-4-12-5-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $793.30 (13-4-12-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $135.70 (13-4-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $119.60 (1-13)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $15450.20 (5-4-10-9-1-13)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $167.20 (5-4-10-9-1-13)
$2.00 Quinella paid $53.00 (4-13)

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar, Wednesday, Race 10 – no bets

July 28, 2010 — maidenking

Jockey Julio Garcia got #2 JJ Minister to come again in the stretch to nail#11 Certainly Certain by a head

In the write-up before this race, I said that the experienced runners starting in this event had not come within 10 Beyer Speed Figure points of the median number that wins at this class.

Therefore, I took a long look at the five first-time starters and was prepared to bet on four of them if I got the right odds. However, both #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night were scratched and neither #7 Proud Jenny, at 28/1, and #10 Jakesam, at 4/1, fell into my odds range of 10/1 to 19/1. My final possibility, #9 Elessar, was also scratched. I was at Del Mar for Opening Day, but saw the odds and did not stay for the 10th.

The race, however, turned out to be an exciting one. As the gates opened, #2 JJ Minister shot right for the lead on the inside. Nearing the turn, #6 Mandelieu cut JJ Minister’s two-length lead down to one. But jockey Julio Garcia kept hustling JJ Minister around the turn and, when the colt entered the stretch a bit wide, it enabled #11 Certainly Certain to catch up.

Certainly Certain had a half a length on JJ Minister at the eighth pole, but Garcia never quit and JJ Minister responded by coming again. He paid $44.60.

Because of the scratches and undesirable odds, I had no bets in this race.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 J J Minister (CA) Garcia J Perez S 21.30 1
3 2 Unbridled Score (CA) Rivera C Stute M 32.60 8
5 3 Alex T (KY) Gonzalez A Bacorn H 35.40 7
6 4 Mandelieu (CA) Verenzuela J Polanco M 43.10 10
7 5 Proud Jenny (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 28.70 9
1 6 Grand Maneuver (KY) Pedroza M Velasquez D 2.80 6
8 7 Bigmikeistheman (FL) Smith M Fanning J 1.10 5
10 8 Jakesam (KY) Baze T Hollendorfer J 4.10 3
11 9 Certainly Certain (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 8.70 2
1A 10 B. J.’s Hope (KY) Espinoza V Velasquez D 2.80 4
SCR – Celestic Night (KY)     – –
SCR – Liquid Asset (KY)     – –
SCR – Elessar (KY)     – –
SCR – Tiger Trysts (KY) Gryder A Kitchingman A – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $44.60 $22.20 $12.20
11 – $9.40 $7.40
10 – – $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $850.35 (5/11-3-1/10-2)
$1.00 Exacta paid $189.70 (2-11)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $289.30 (3-10-2)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $1943.80 (9 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $5042.50 (2-11-10-1-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $3149.80 (2-11-10-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1452.00 (2-11-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $236.20 (10-2)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $324.20 (4-8-5/11-3-1/10-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $128.40 (2-11)

 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — won $180

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

1980detrDespite traffic problems in the lane, #10 Purse Luva easily ran by leader #11 Cardiff Giant to win impressively.

Jockey Victor Espinoza broke Purse Luva toward the rear of this 12-horse field, as #3 Action Call, #4 Gilligan and #6 Catch My Tale all dueled for the lead. Coming into the race, trainer Caesar Dominguez dropped Purse Luva in class from maiden $50,000 claimer for his second lifetime start and added blinkers.

As the field toiled in deep stretch, the inflection in race caller Trevor Denman’s seemed to indicate he believed first-time starter #11 Cardiff Giant’s two-length lead would hold. But Purse Luva found running room and came off the rail, which opened Denman’s eyes. He called out: “Now, out of nowhere, Purse Luva. And Purse Luva looking like he just jumped in at the eighth pole. Just goes right on by.”

Cardiff Giant, from the hot Peter Miller barn, was bet to 7-to-2 and ran well but his wide trip likely compromised his finish.

I bet $150 on three horses #10 Purse Luva, at 3/1; #3 Action Call, a 9/1 shot; and debuter #5 Haimish Hy, at 13/1. I collected $630, but only profited $180 after subtracting out the $450 in bets.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Senor Crafty (CA) Kaenel K Alcala J 8.50 5
2 2 Happy Hands (UT) Atkinson P Stute G 44.90 12
3 3 Action Call (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Solis W 9.00 9
4 4 Gilligan (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 5.50 7
5 5 Haimish Hy (KY) Quinonez A Sherman A 13.70 3
6 6 Catch My Tale (KY) Valdez F Talbot S 24.70 6
7 7 Zagora’s Pride (NM) Santiago Reyes C Gonzalez S 33.20 10
8 8 Straightomidnight (CA) Berrio O Avila A 10.80 11
9 9 Golden Boy Mark (CA) Baze M Pender M 14.60 4
10 10 Purse Luva (KY) Espinoza V Dominguez C 3.20 1
11 11 Cardiff Giant (KY) Baze T Miller P 3.80 2
12 12 Suitcase Simpson (CA) Pedroza M Harrington M 11.90 8
SCR – Ministerfrommiami (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Single Prince (CA) Pedroza M DeLima J – –
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $8.40 $4.20 $3.40
11 – $4.80 $4.00
5 – – $8.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.60 (10-11)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $98.70 (8-2-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $733.50 (7-8-2-10/13/14)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $5253.00 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16306.40 (10-11-5-9-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2517.10 (10-11-5-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $219.60 (10-11-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $40.80 (2-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11292.40 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/1
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $202.60 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/13/
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.00 (10-11)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

August 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2
2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5
3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6
5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7
6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1
7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4
8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8
9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9
10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10
11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11
12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3
SCR – Unbridled Brew (CA)     – –
SCR – A Soft Breeze (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80
1 – $6.60 $4.40
12 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Happy Hands                                 20/1
#3 Action Call                                      6/1
#5 Halmish Hy                                      8/1
#7 Zagora’s Pride                                 15/1
#10 Purse Luva                                    6/1
#11 Cardiff Giant                                  9/2

The gate appears full for this one with 14 fillies scheduled to made the 5-1/2 furlong trip.

The fastest demonstrated speed out of the gate goes to #3 Action Call, but she is trying maidens for the seventh time. Another contender is the Caesar Dominquez-trained #10 Purse Luva, who is dropping and adding blinkers for her second start and that’s a powerful one-two punch.

I won’t hesitate to bet many of the debuters in here if their prices are right. For various reasons, I like #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

I will bet $150 to win on #3 Action Call at 4/1 or more and $150 to win on #10 Purse Luva at 3/1 or better.

Also, I will place $150 wagers on any of these fillies at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Bye Bye Hollywood                 12/1
#12 Action Gal                            3/1

The only filly that really sticks out here is #12 Action Gal. But second-timer #1 Bye Bye Hollywood is interesting because she almost won a 4-1/2 furlong race from an outside post position — which is nearly impossible.

Action Gal, a Mike Machowsky trainee, showed the best early speed of any of these in her debut race on Opening Day at Del Mar. In that race, Action Gal raced a distant second to Punctual before she faded to third.

She is the type of second-time starter that has run well in the past, but she may get caught wide breaking from the far outside post.

One of the three first-timers in the race may win, but I can’t bet any of them. And the third second-time starter — #5 Whatusaywhatusmean — looks hopeless. 

But Bye Bye Hollywood may run huge. Breaking from post #8 on May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood was caught 3-wide on the turn but still surged to the front in deep stretch before being passed by Lovers House. Also, trainer David La Croix has proven himself over the years with horses making their second lifetime start for owner Meadowbrook Farms.

I plan on betting $150 to win on #12 Action Gal at 5/2 and up and $100 on #1 Bye Bye Hollywood at 6/1 and higher.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 6 — won $1,005

August 6, 2009 — maidenking

ist2_580792-money-hat[1]The experienced runners in this 12-horse field all looked weak considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for the class was 59 and the best Beyer any of these could muster was just a 44.

I took a long look at the three-first time starters and saw that #2 Storm Needed, #3 Private Valentine and #9 Royalty Gone Wild all had positive betting angles going for them.

However, I wanted to see some betting action on Storm Needed and she went off at 16-to-1, which was well above my maximum post time odds of 8-to-1. Conversely, I was interested in Washington-bred Private Valentine only at 10/1 to 19/1, but she was surprisingly bet down to just 5-to-1.

I liked Royalty Gone Wild at anywhere from 7/2 up to 19/1, but planned to bump my bet from $150 to $200 if she was at least 10/1.

During the race, longshot #6 Giveme Tat Ting dueled with second-time starter #1 Escape Plan until the top of the stretch when Private Valentine surged to the leaders. Royalty Gone Wild ran near the back of the pack then came like an express train in the stretch to win by 6 lengths.

The only drawback with Royalty Gone Wild winning was that her odds were only 7/1, so I had just $150 on her instead of $200. Anyway, I ended up profiting $1,005 after subtracting out $300 which includes $150 on #10 Sheskey, a 7/1 shot who showed speed in her last.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Escape Plan (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 4.20 3
2 2 Storm Needed (CA) Baze M Gaines C 16.20 9
3 3 Private Valentine (WA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 5.80 4
4 4 Bookdmyoceancruise (CA) Valdez F Fulmer D 74.50 10
5 5 Clear Imagine (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 22.40 7
6 6 Giveme Tat Ting (CA) Delgadillo A Solis W 20.40 8
7 7 Fifty K (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 65.20 11
8 8 Lena Miss (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 72.80 12
9 9 Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 7.70 1
10 10 Sheskey (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 7.30 6
11 11 Rose S. (WA) Pedroza M Harrington M 15.30 5
12 12 Goldeneh Medina (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 1.70 2
SCR – Chatty Lula (CA)     – –
SCR – Deceptively (FL)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $17.40 $7.00 $4.20
12 – $3.20 $2.60
1 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $25.30 (9-12)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $130.30 (1-3-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $530.00 (9-12-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $101.00 (9-12-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $61.80 (3-9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $22.80 (9-12)
Fractional Times
22.89, 47.10, 59.28, 1:05.42
 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 5, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 4 — lost $450

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

In a race seemingly full of good betting opportunities, a bland horse that I had no information on ended up winning.

But that just shows me the value of adhering to proper odds before wagering. No matter how confident horseplayers are about a race’s outcome, it’s clear that, really, anything can happen. 

In this race, trainer Mike Mitchell had #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot making her debut. Mitchell has an outstanding record with these types of horses, according to my records, and owner Vessels Stallion Farm was 2-for-2 with first timers.

Over the last year or so, trainer Jeff Mullins has also excelled with young maiden claimers making their first starts. In this race, he had #3 Royally Large.

Mike Puype, who saddled post time favorite #11 Ms. Salt Mine, was 4-of-6 when training second-time starters dropping into maiden claiming and #8 Salty Fries was adding blinkers and dropping for her second start — which was an angle that produced a scorching eight wins in the last 16 races. 

But none of them got close to #2 Hayley’s Halo, who was making her third start after two unspectacular runs.

When the stalls sprang opened, Ms. Salt Mine shot right to a clear lead and she stayed in front until the top of the lane. Down the backstretch,  Ms. Salt Mine was chased by #8 Salty Fries and Hayley’s Halo.

Ms. Salt Mine was gassed in the lane and Hayley’s Halo inherited the lead when she quit. Then another surprise horse, #7 Right to Work who got a zero Beyer in her debut, came running late for second at 11-to-1.

I bet $300 on 6-to-1 shot Sheza Foxy Jackpot and $150 on #3 Royally Large, at 14-to-1, who both ran on late. The damage could have been worse because I considered wagering on both #8 Salty Fries and #11 Ms. Salt Mine, but they were bet below my odds threshold. 

To watch a replay of this race go to www. calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 6.20 3
2 2 Hayley’s Halo (CA) Flores D Fanning J 6.40 1
3 3 Royally Large (CA) Baze T Mullins J 14.10 4
4 4 De Car Chic (CA) Valdez F Dahl T 54.10 11
5 5 Ee to Kinzie (CA) Garcia M Lage A 8.20 9
6 6 Fatal Edge (CA) Scott J Davis D 90.10 10
7 7 Right to Work (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 11.40 2
8 8 Salty Fries (CA) Talamo J Knight T 3.40 5
9 9 Warren’s Skater (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 37.20 7
10 10 Boots n’ Bangles (CA) Arambula P Yakteen T 43.10 8
11 11 Ms. Salt Mine (CA) Rosario J Puype M 1.80 6
SCR – Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Saturn Moon (CA)     – –
SCR – Frequent Fame (CA) Baze M Polanco M – –
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $14.80 $6.80 $4.40
7 – $10.00 $6.80
1 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $61.80 (7-6-2)
$1.00 Exacta paid $107.30 (2-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $737.20 (7-12-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $4649.80 (2-7-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $641.10 (2-7-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $159.40 (12-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $157.40 (2-7)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — lost $200

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Mike Harrington wishes every field was soft at the one Towser beat in the 8th on Thursday.

Trainer Mike Harrington wishes every field was as soft at the one Towser beat in the 8th on Thursday.

Most races for Southern California maidens are fairly competitive with at least half the field eligible to win. However, that was not the case in Thursday’s eighth race, which had an 11-horse field.

After #11 Ministerfrommiami was scratched when running off at the gate, realistically this was just a two-horse race. And in what race caller Trevor Denman termed “a romp,” #10 Towser won to nobody’s surprise at 3-to-5.

Other than first-time starter #8 Danceuponthestars, the field was full of colts and geldings that typically dawdled out of the gate and offered no rally. The past performances for these horse were full of single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts.

As the race began, Towser shot to the front with #2 Bartok’s Bonus pressing the pace from the inside. Jockey Mike Smith, who sat with #8 Danceuponthestars in third place, was probably hoping Towser got tired.

But in the stretch, Towser pulled away to win by 5-1/2 lengths. The real race was for second where Bartok’s Bonus, who ran his eyeballs out at 19-to-1, got nailed on the wire by Danceuponthestars.

I lost $200 on Danceuponthestars at 4/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Bartok’s Bonus (CA) Sorenson D Meredith D 19.40 3
3 2 My Royal Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Polanco M 11.80 6
4 3 Venito (CA) Atkinson P Mendoza J 55.70 10
5 4 Warrens Temptation (CA) Quinonez A Gutierrez J 14.70 5
6 5 El Ranchero (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 17.90 8
7 6 Mr. Collen (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 40.40 7
8 7 Danceuponthestars (CA) Smith M Moger, Jr. E 4.10 2
9 8 Quillotano (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 45.10 11
1 9 Lucero Negro (CA) Blanc B Zamora R 23.60 4
10 10 Towser (CA) Baze M Harrington M 0.60 1
12 11 El Chapo (CA) Arambula P Gonzalez F 39.50 9
SCR – Ministerfrommiami (CA) Baze T Sadler J – –
SCR – Google Me (CA) Garcia M Zamora R – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $3.20 $2.20 $2.20
8 – $3.40 $3.00
2 – – $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $22.50 (3-7-11)
$1.00 Exacta paid $5.20 (10-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $39.80 (3-7-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $186.90 (1-3/9/10/11-7-10/11)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2972.70 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $502.00 (10-8-2-1-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $202.30 (10-8-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $36.60 (10-8-2)
$2.00 Consolation Double paid $5.80 (7-11)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $13.40 (7-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $13456.40 (8-11-1-3/9/10/11-7-10
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $154.00 (8-11-1-3/9/10/11-7-10/1
$2.00 Quinella paid $7.00 (8-10)
Fractional Times
22.83, 46.65, 58.85, 1:05.36
 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 4:30 pm post time

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot                   5/1
#3 Royally Large                            8/1
#4 De Car Chic                              20/1
#7 Right to Work                            8/1
#8 Salty Fries                                9/2
#10 Boots n’ Bangles                       20/1
#11 Miss Salt Mine                          7/2

This race is full of money making angles and I can see any of seven of the 12 runners winning it. When wagering, I will consult the odds board for clues and to determine value.

First-time starter #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot breaks from the rail for trainer Mike Mitchell, who has an excellent record with debut horses in this class. Garrett Gomez has won on both first timers that he rode for Mitchell and the owners, Vessels Stallion Farm, is also 2-for-2 with debuters.

Jeff Mullins is another trainer who does well with maiden claiming first-time starters. Mullins saddles #3 Royally Large, who is owned by David Lanzman Racing Stable and that outfit frequently wins first time out. 

An early foal, #4 De Car Chic is another filly making her first start. She’s been working out well and I’ll need to see the tote board for more clues.

I most likely won’t be betting #7 Right to Work, who is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes. However, if she’s bet below 5-to-1 she becomes a player.

Second-time starter #8 Salty Fries ships in from the Northern California fair circuit.  She ran decently on July 2 and now adds blinkers while dropping in class. 

Owners D & E Racing usually employ Bob Baffert to train their stock, but this time former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen gets the call. Their debuter #10 Boots n’ Bangles has been working out at San Luis Rey Downs and is a good bet if the price is right.

Trainer Mike Puype won with four of his last six maiden claiming second timers that were dropping in class. Although, unlike #11 Ms. Salt Mine, most of them were coming off long layoffs. In Ms. Salt Mine’s first race on July 2 she dueled for the lead for a quarter mile and showed much better early speed than any of the other experienced runners in this race.

With so many horses to like, it complicates the win wagering. My best bet is #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and I will put $300 on her at 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 if she drifts to 10/1 and up. My second choice is #11 Ms. Salt Mine and I’ll take $250 to win on her at 3/1 to 9/1 only.

If either of those two horses are out of the betting zone, then I will put $200 to win on both #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries at 4/1 to 10/1, and $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. But if both #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and #11 Ms. Salt Mine have bettable odds then I’ll put only $100 on #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries and bump their acceptable odds to 7/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #4 De Car Chic and #10 Boots n’ Bangles are 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll put $150 to win on them both regardless of anything else.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#8 Danceuponthestars           7/2
#10 Towser                          9/5

This field of 12 is full of very bad horses that can be easily eliminated. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, but nine of the 10 experienced runners entered in here have yet to crack 40. Furthermore, the odds on seven of them have been less than 20-to-1 only twice in 17 races with the average odds of these 17 races being 53-to-1.

Single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts populate the racing form page. I guess that’s why the morning line maker hung odds of 7-to-2 on #8 Danceuponthestars, a first time starter who has been training slowly at Golden Gate Fields.

Realistically, I can see only three horses winning this race: #8 Danceuponthestars, #10 Towser and #11 Ministerfrommiami. Any other horse would be a complete shocker.

Owned and trained by Ed Moger, Danceuponthestars is switching circuits and jockey Mike Smith has won five times and placed five times in 19 chances with 2-year-old first time starters. Although most of them were in the maiden special weight ranks.

Towser showed a good burst of speed on June 12 and trainer Mike Harrington upgrades the jockey from Felipe Valdez to Michael Baze. Towser should be near the early lead, but his odds may be no better than even money.

Finally, John Sadler sends out #11 Ministerfrommiami who ran in spurts in his July 3 debut. This gelding is running in his second lifetime race, but I like Danceuponthestars better.

At 5/2 or more, I will bet $200 on #8 Danceuponthestars and at 2/1 or better I’ll put $200 on Towser.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 4 — lost $150

July 28, 2009 — maidenking

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

They say many races are won at the starting gate. And that seemed to be true in this heat, as jockey Tyler Baze shot to the front on #5  Punctual and cruised to an easy 7-1/2 length victory.

The owners had to be pleased with the work of trainer Peter Miller, who had this horse ready to win in its first lifetime race. The filly, which was bought for just $1,000, earned $16,200 for the win.

When analyzing this race, I gave Punctual a chance at 10/1 to 19/1. But with a few minutes to post #1 Bye Bye Hollywood, who was about 4/1,  was scratched. So instead of Punctual being 11 or 12-to-1, she went off at 8-to-1.

Instead, I bet $100 on #7 Action Gal at 7-to-1 and $50 on #9 Wicked Trip at 12-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Deputy Judy R N (KY) Espinoza V Walsh K 2.10 2
4 2 Our Bellini Bikini (FL) Talamo J Koriner B 2.00 5
5 3 Punctual (FL) Baze T Miller P 8.80 1
6 4 Fair Kisses (KY) Garcia M DeLeon R 7.50 6
7 5 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 7.00 3
8 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 7.40 4
9 7 Wicked Trip (FL) Arambula P Grayson B 12.70 7
SCR – Dixie Saint (FL) Stra K Grayson B – –
SCR – Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D – –
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $19.60 $6.80 $4.40
2 – $3.80 $3.00
7 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $20.20 (1-6-1)
$1.00
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

July 22, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#2 Deputy Judy R N                  3/1
#3 Dixie Saint                          20/1
#4 Our Bellini Bikini                   5/1
#5 Punctual                             6/1
#7 Action Gal                           6/1
#9 Wicked Trip                        20/1

Lots and lots of inexperienced runners in here. In fact, only three of the nine fillies have raced and two of those ran only one time.

I like these races because bettors usually won’t pound down a first-time starter, and if they do, the low price makes that horse one of the worst long-term wagers at the race track.In this race, the horses who have run before didn’t show much, so I’ll take my chances that the winner will be a horse making its first start.  

Breaking from the rail, #1 Bye Bye Hollywood did well on May 21 to get the lead while leaving from a wide post position at 4-1/2 furlongs. The gate is positioned so close to the turn at 4-1/2 furlongs that it’s almost impossible to win from any stall outside of the 4 post.

The problem I see with Bye Bye Hollywood is that her Beyer Speed Figure was only 26 and this class of fillies usually run in the low to middle 60s.  At 3-to-1, she is too risky.

The two first timers that look the best are #2 Deputy Judy R N and #7 Action Gal. Trainer Kathy Walsh has a poor winning percentage with first-time runners, but Deputy Judy R N is working out well and this type of horse is a good bet at 7/2 to 19/1. Mike Machowsky, who trains Action Gal, has a good win record with Lo Hi Stable over the years when they send a horse out for the first time. But I will need a much better price than 7/2.

Also, #4 Our Bellini Bikini has strong breeding, trainer and jockey angles in it’s favor.  

For some reason, I don’t know why, Florida-breds have been winning with greater frequency first-time out than horses bred in California or Kentucky. I don’t particularly like when debuting horses train at Fairplex or San Luis Rey Downs, but #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual and #9 Wicked Trip were all bred in Florida. Therefore, I give them all a longshot’s chance.

At the betting windows, I will put $250 to win on #2 Deputy Judy R N at 7/2 to 19/1, $100 on #7 Action Gal at 5/1 to 19/1, but $200 if Action Gal is 10/1 to 19/1.  On #4 Our Bellini Bikini, I’ll bet $200 at 5/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 to 19/1.

Also, I’ll put $50 on any of these runners at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual, and #9 Wicked Trip.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 1 — 1 pm post time

April 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 4-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#1 Swiss Record                               2/1
#2 Gate to Wire                                5/2

In these 4-1/2 furlong races the turn comes up real quickly so the inside four post positions have a tremendous advantage over the others.

In fact, over the last two years only one out of 50 first time starters won breaking from a post position outside of gate 4. And that horse was even money.

So, although I would love to play #6 Suitcase Simpson or #7 Seeuat Sticknstein, I won’t do it because their post positions nullify their great connections. The only horses that I will consider are #1 Swiss Record and #2 Gate to Wire.

Swiss Record has several quick workouts and is breaking from stall #1. Sire Swiss Yodler is known for dropping precocious horses and jockey Joel Rosario can get the job done. Just outside of him, #2 Gate to Wire got body checked hard at the start of his April 2 debut then ran on well. Now trainer Caesar Dominguez switches from no-name rider Pedro Arambula to Rafael Bejarano, who led the Santa Anita jockey standings and won five races at Hollywood Park on Saturday.

I will bet $200 to win on #1 Swiss Record at 3/2 to 4/1, but if his odds are not in that range I will instead put the $200 on #2 Gate to Wire at odds of 2/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $650

April 20, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

What threw me off on #3 Indomitable was she was showing a purchase price of $210,000, but she was dropping into a race for $32,000 claimers.

And it’s not like she had run five times and never came close. This was only her second start and she showed speed in her debut, yet the owner was still giving up on her.

No question that Indomitable had a couple of things in her favor, as trainer Carla Gaines has won regularly with second timers over the last decade, and Gaines has a high winning percentage when using jockey Rafael Bejarano.

But, at 2-to-1 on Indomitable, I instead opted for #5 To Hot for You, who was coming off an eight month layoff for Mike Mitchell. Also, I liked #10 Humane who ran a monster race in her Feb. 5 debut, but hasn’t duplicated it now in three tries.

In the race, both Humane and To Hot for You were plugging away four lengths behind #2 Touch Me Babe, who set the pace until the top of the stretch. Indomitable, who tracked the leader all the way, then moved strongly to the lead while both Humane and To Hot for You tried fruitlessly to catch her.

I bet $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 5/2 and $250 on #10 Humane at 5/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 37.80 9
2 2 Touch Me Babe (KY) Baze T Miller P 6.10 6
3 3 Indomitable (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.10 1
4 4 Maeve (CA) Solis A Becerra R 16.60 8
5 5 To Hot for You (FL) Gryder A Mitchell M 2.80 3
6 6 Poolside (CA) Quinonez A Periban J 29.60 4
7 7 Sand Bridled (CA) Cedeno A Stein R 27.10 5
8 8 Hostile Reaction (CA) Stra K Martinez S 45.10 7
9 9 Kristen’s Lil Lady (CA) Talamo J Yakteen T 6.10 10
10 10 Humane (CA) Baze M Meredith D 5.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $6.20 $4.00 $3.00
10 – $5.80 $3.80
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.60 (3-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (3-8-3)
$1.00 Superfecta
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — won $1,695

April 19, 2009 — maidenking

e-pluribus-unumThe crowd in this race went for #6 Michelle Marie, who had recently competed in maiden special weight races with the likes of Irish Gypsy and Mother Ruth.

She ran OK to finish second at 6-to-5, but first-time starter #7 Martini Mixer was absolutely the best horse in this maiden claiming field. 

Jockey Joe Talamo broke Martini Mixer in the middle of the field where she followed six lengths behind a pack of four horses vying for the lead — #3 Tripped Fame, #4 Mary the Princess, #6 Michelle Marie and #9 Misstrailcityzone.

On the turn, Talamo began his rail-hugging rally then swang out for the drive.  Only two of the four pace setters remained at the top of the stretch and Martini Mixer blew by both Mary the Princess and Michelle Marie to win by about three lengths.

I thought Martini Mixer, who is trained by Brian Koriner, had a good chance and bet $400 on her. I collected $2,080 and profited $1,655, as I also put $25 on 22-to-1 shot Misstrailcityzone.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 St. Rosalind (KY) Baze M Headley G 27.20 5
3 2 Tripped Fuse (FL) Baze T Glatt M 3.90 8
4 3 Mary the Princess (CA) Bejarano R Periban J 7.00 4
5 4 Daniella Roth (CA) Garcia M Stein R 27.10 6
6 5 Michelle Marie (KY) Rosario J West T 1.20 2
7 6 Martini Mixer (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.30 1
8 7 Ata Pretense (CA) Arambula P Burnison E 56.20 9
9 8 Misstrailcityzone (CA) Quinonez A Nettles K 22.10 3
10 9 Greek Advantage (CA) Sorenson D Bell, II T 9.60 7
SCR – Roomantic (LA) Delgadillo A Hajek I – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $10.60 $4.60 $3.60
6 – $2.80 $2.40
9 – – $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $109.30 (2-3-2)
$1.00 Exacta
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — no bets

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Leading jockey Rafael Bejarano won aboard #2 Foreign Taurean for trainer Steve Knapp

Leading jockey Rafael Bejarano won aboard #2 Foreign Taurean for trainer Steve Knapp

My horse in this race, #5 Victory Knock, was scratched in the morning, so I didn’t have any bets.

Victory Knock was the 2-to-1 morning line favorite and without him in the race, #2 Foreign Taurean was bet down to even money.

And Foreign Taurean, who is trained by Steve Knapp, won like an even money shot should win. He took the lead down the backstretch on a slow pace, remained in front on the turn, then pulled away in the stretch.

The win added to Bejarano’s lead in the jockey standings on the next to last day before the prestigious Santa Anita winter meet ends. As of April 15, Bejarano had a 93-to-86 lead in wins over Garrett Gomez.

However, in defense of Gomez, the 2007-2008 Eclipse Award winner leaves town more than Bejarano to ride in stakes races on the East Coast and Midwest.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Class Dismissed (KY) Rosario J Dunham D 5.70 3
2 2 Foreign Taurean (KY) Bejarano R Knapp S 1.00 1
3 3 Self Defense (CA) Gryder A Lewis C 4.10 4
4 4 Llamada Perdida (CA) Garcia M Garcia V 54.40 5
6 5 Joshomo (CA) Rios J Metz J 15.70 6
7 6 Brahms Medal (KY) Gavica G Dahl T 49.30 8
8 7 Kitty Caliente (CA) Hill C Matties G 3.90 2
9 8 Papa Doowop (NY) Nakatani C Truman E 16.70 7
SCR – Victory Knock (KY) Solis A Gallagher P – –
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $4.00 $2.60 $2.20
8 – $4.20 $3.60
1 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.60 (2-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $102.00 (4-1-2)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $401.30 (8-4-1-2/5)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Touch Me Babe                            10/1
#5 To Hot for You                             5/2
#10 Humane                                     8/1

Coming off of an eight-month layoff, #5 To Hot for You is dropping in class and is saddled by Mike Mitchell, who wins at 36 percent with maiden claimers.

Too Hot for You ran competitively when facing maiden special weight company at Del Mar in August and is making only her third lifetime start. This stable’s live horses are bet down, so I will like this filly more if her post time odds are low.

Breaking on the far outside, #10 Humane overcame a huge amount of trouble in her Feb. 5 debut to lead by two lengths in the stretch, but she could not hold on. On that day, she broke seven lengths behind the field then accelerated four-wide on the turn to the lead. It was an impressive move that race caller Trevor Denman recognized when describing the action.

I estimate that she lost 10 lengths so I adjusted the 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day to an 87. But today she is breaking from a wide post again at 5-1/2 furlongs, so she’s likely to be a bit wide again.

Humane’s trainer Derek Meredith is also doing something else worth noting. He named low-profile jockey Agapito Delgadillo to ride, so his name is printed in the Daily Racing Form. However, he switched to Michael Baze and that’s who will be on board.

Could Meredith have named Delgadillo while fully intending to make the late switch in an attempt to pump up the wagering odds? Would a horse trainer participate in such chicanery? It’s quite possible, because Delgadillo is still scheduled to ride #3 Likely a Star in the fourth, so the jockey obviously did not get sick.

Finally, Gerson Racing owns #2 Touch Me Babe and their first-time starters win more than their share of races.

At the betting window, I will put $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 7/5 to 5/2, but just $150 at 3/1 or more. Also, I want $250 to win on #10 Humane at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $150 at 10/1 or more. And finally, $100 on #2 Touch Me Babe at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 pm post time

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#3 Tripped Fuse                         5/2
#7 Martini Mixer                          8/1
#9 Misstrailcityzone                    12/1
#10 Greek Advantage                  15/1

Two experienced horses figure to get all of the betting action. Both #3 Tripped Fuse and #6 Michelle Marie certainly have the ability to win this race, but neither will probably be more than 3-to-1.

One intriguing filly is first-time starter #7 Martini Mixer. Trained by Brian Koriner, Martini Mixer is showing several good workouts and she fits the profile of a winning debut horse. Also, of the last 123 horses jockey Joe Talamo rode for Koriner, 28 of them won with the average payoff being $11.

That means if you bet them all, you would have made $1.25 for every $1 bet.

The best early speed in this race might belong to #9 Misstrailcityzone, who led until midstretch on April 4 at 108-to-1. As long as this filly stays healthy and runs in races at 6 furlongs or less, she’ll break her maiden somewhere. But she may need a different circuit and softer competition.

However, she’s also improving and when Misstrailcityzone quit badly last time it was at 6-1/2 furlongs where speed isn’t as important. Who knows, she just may keep on going today and pay $25.

Finally, #10 Greek Advantage is debuting for trainer Thomas Bell II and she’d also be a good bet if the price is right.

I will bet $400 to win on #7 Martini Mixer at 5/2 to 14/1, but just $100 if she’s 15/1 to 19/1.  Also, I’ll take $100 to win on #9 Misstrailcityzone at 5/1 to 19/1, and reduce the wager to $25 at odds at 20/1 or more.

Finally, I’ll put $200 to win on #10 Greek Advantage at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. 1 Comment »
« Older posts
%d bloggers like this: