Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

May 10, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s +, f & m

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#11 Spacy Tracy                              6/1
#14 To Hot for You                           9/2

Mike Mitchell adds blinkers to #14 To Hot for You, who has shown early speed in previous races. This filly is making her fourth start and has been steadily dropping in class. She had came back from a seven-month layoff on April 19 and may be a lot better than she looks in her past performances.

Mitchell is winning at a 36 percent clip with maiden claimers and won six out of the last 12 times he added blinkers for the first time.  If that’s not strong then I don’t know what is.

Also, second-time starter #11 Spacy Tracy has a couple of quick workouts on her way back from more than a year away from racing. In her January 2008 debut, she ran a 78 Beyer Speed Figure while showing superior early speed to any of the other fillies and mares in here.

I will bet $500 to win on #14 To Hot for You at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $300 at 4/1 and higher.  Also, I want $250 to win on #11 Spacy Tracy at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $650

April 20, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

What threw me off on #3 Indomitable was she was showing a purchase price of $210,000, but she was dropping into a race for $32,000 claimers.

And it’s not like she had run five times and never came close. This was only her second start and she showed speed in her debut, yet the owner was still giving up on her.

No question that Indomitable had a couple of things in her favor, as trainer Carla Gaines has won regularly with second timers over the last decade, and Gaines has a high winning percentage when using jockey Rafael Bejarano.

But, at 2-to-1 on Indomitable, I instead opted for #5 To Hot for You, who was coming off an eight month layoff for Mike Mitchell. Also, I liked #10 Humane who ran a monster race in her Feb. 5 debut, but hasn’t duplicated it now in three tries.

In the race, both Humane and To Hot for You were plugging away four lengths behind #2 Touch Me Babe, who set the pace until the top of the stretch. Indomitable, who tracked the leader all the way, then moved strongly to the lead while both Humane and To Hot for You tried fruitlessly to catch her.

I bet $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 5/2 and $250 on #10 Humane at 5/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 37.80 9
2 2 Touch Me Babe (KY) Baze T Miller P 6.10 6
3 3 Indomitable (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.10 1
4 4 Maeve (CA) Solis A Becerra R 16.60 8
5 5 To Hot for You (FL) Gryder A Mitchell M 2.80 3
6 6 Poolside (CA) Quinonez A Periban J 29.60 4
7 7 Sand Bridled (CA) Cedeno A Stein R 27.10 5
8 8 Hostile Reaction (CA) Stra K Martinez S 45.10 7
9 9 Kristen’s Lil Lady (CA) Talamo J Yakteen T 6.10 10
10 10 Humane (CA) Baze M Meredith D 5.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $6.20 $4.00 $3.00
10 – $5.80 $3.80
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.60 (3-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (3-8-3)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Touch Me Babe                            10/1
#5 To Hot for You                             5/2
#10 Humane                                     8/1

Coming off of an eight-month layoff, #5 To Hot for You is dropping in class and is saddled by Mike Mitchell, who wins at 36 percent with maiden claimers.

Too Hot for You ran competitively when facing maiden special weight company at Del Mar in August and is making only her third lifetime start. This stable’s live horses are bet down, so I will like this filly more if her post time odds are low.

Breaking on the far outside, #10 Humane overcame a huge amount of trouble in her Feb. 5 debut to lead by two lengths in the stretch, but she could not hold on. On that day, she broke seven lengths behind the field then accelerated four-wide on the turn to the lead. It was an impressive move that race caller Trevor Denman recognized when describing the action.

I estimate that she lost 10 lengths so I adjusted the 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day to an 87. But today she is breaking from a wide post again at 5-1/2 furlongs, so she’s likely to be a bit wide again.

Humane’s trainer Derek Meredith is also doing something else worth noting. He named low-profile jockey Agapito Delgadillo to ride, so his name is printed in the Daily Racing Form. However, he switched to Michael Baze and that’s who will be on board.

Could Meredith have named Delgadillo while fully intending to make the late switch in an attempt to pump up the wagering odds? Would a horse trainer participate in such chicanery? It’s quite possible, because Delgadillo is still scheduled to ride #3 Likely a Star in the fourth, so the jockey obviously did not get sick.

Finally, Gerson Racing owns #2 Touch Me Babe and their first-time starters win more than their share of races.

At the betting window, I will put $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 7/5 to 5/2, but just $150 at 3/1 or more. Also, I want $250 to win on #10 Humane at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $150 at 10/1 or more. And finally, $100 on #2 Touch Me Babe at 10/1 to 19/1.

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