Wednesday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 2 yo fillies 

Possible overlays                             Morning line 

#2 Excellent Point                                    6/1
#4 Della Mia                                            20/1
#10 Miss Apricot                                      20/1 

Clifford Sise, who is the trainer of #2 Excellent Point, does well with first time starters in this class. This filly has all slow workouts, but this trainer typically trains his debuters slowly in the morning then runs them fast in the afternoon. 

Sise, who also owns Excellent Point, chose jockey Jose Verenzuela even though this rider has ridden just 20 mounts at the meet, winning two times. Sise uses top riders at times, but he is just as likely to leg up low profile jocks like Danny Sorenson, Iggy Puglisi or Brice Blanc. In fact, Sise used 22 different riders on his 48 debuters I have listed for him in my database, so he spreads the work around throughout the jockey colony. 

A couple of more first timers that might have a shot if they show any betting action are #4 Della Mia and #10 Miss Apricot. 

At the window, I will bet $1,000 to win on #2 Excellent Point at 2/1 to 9/1, but just $300 at 10/1 to 19/1. 

If the odds on either #4 Della Mia or #10 Miss Apriocot fall between 10/1 and 19/1, then I will wager $100 on them.

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Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

bio_bruceheadley

Trainer Bruce Headley is also the owner of #8 Woman Warrior

Coming into this race, #3 Ruffled Feathers looked like she was going to run big. Trainer Patrick Gallagher switched jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and the filly had improved in each of her two starts.

She was bet to 2-to-1 but broke slowly to be near the back of the field. Approaching the turn, Gomez checked Ruffled Feathers and got into more trouble entering the stretch. At that point. Ruffled Feathers was so far behind that Gomez merely breezed her to the wire.

One horse that didn’t get in trouble was #8 Woman Warrior, a first-time starter trained by Bruce Headley. Alex Solis sat her just off the pace and she was a bit wide on the turn But then she came with a furious stretch rally to mow down #7 Running After Boys.

I was prepared to wager on Ruffled Feathers, but she was below my minimum odds of 5/2. Gold Image, #6, was also out of my range and I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Irridescent Red, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wearehaving Funyet (CA) Hill C Mendoza J 51.90 9
2 2 Metallic Waters (CA) Smith M Baffert B 7.40 6
3 3 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Gomez G Gallagher P 2.30 8
4 4 Kant Catch the Kat (CA) Garcia M Sherman A 19.20 7
5 5 Irridescent Red (CA) Gryder A Becerra R 2.20 5
6 6 Gold Image (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 9.50 3
7 7 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 6.50 2
8 8 Woman Warrior (CA) Solis A Headley B 6.90 1
9 9 Suances Rio (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 24.10 4
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $15.80 $7.40 $4.80
7 $9.60 $6.40
6 $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $62.00 (8-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2981.50 (8-7-6-9)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $600

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson sat in mid pack then unleashed a rally in the stretch to get first-time starter #4 Treadwell to the winner’s circle.

Favorite #3 Total Sum ran a decent race coming off a 14-month layoff — and jockey Joe Talamo was all over him in the stretch — but Total Sum lost by a neck when he couldn’t get by the winner.

In hindsight, the key to this race may have been the low Beyer Speed Figures showing in these horses’ past performances. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74, but the best overall sprint Beyer on this surface for these runners was just a 68.

In light of that, maybe the first time starter Treadwell’s chances could have been upgraded. But no use dwelling on the past because both Bob Baffert and Mike Mitchell have runners going today that may be live.

In this race, I bet $400 on #3 Total Sum and $200 on #7 Lago de Oro.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Winterscore (CA) Baze T Stute M 4.80 3
2 2 Big Water (CA) Quinonez A Pilmer T 5.10 5
3 3 Total Sum (CA) Talamo J Ellis R 1.60 2
4 4 Treadwell (KY) Sorenson D Bell, II T 8.60 1
5 5 Pure Green (OR) Arambula P Schiewe P 59.40 6
6 6 Road to the Throne (KY) Martin G Johnson E 74.30 7
7 7 Lago de Oro (FL) Baze M Scolamieri S 2.10 4
8 8 Some Kinda Monster (CA) Puglisi I Schwizer M 48.70 8
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $19.20 $6.40 $4.60
3 $3.60 $3.00
1 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (4-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $68.70 (5-7-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $111.10 (2/6-4/5-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $337.20 (4-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $141.70 (4-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $107.80 (7-4)

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5:08 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#5 Princess Quinn                                  30/1
#8 Court Ballado                                    12/1
#9 Atta’ Girl                                           9/2
#10 Pedo Viejo                                       6/1
#14 Humane                                           6/1

Trainer Derek Meredith had a betting coup all set up on Feb. 5. How disappointing it must of been for his barn when a brutally slow break caused it to all fall apart.

Humane, who is #14 in this event, was running in her first lifetime race and there was absolutely no reason for anybody to bet serious money on her. And nobody did, as this horse went off at 23-to-1 and flew completely under the radar.

Humane had many aspects in her profile that sent horseplayers searching elsewhere for the race winner. First of all, Meredith, is a competent but low-profile trainer who has not won a race in 2009 after a handful of tries, and he was blanked in 2008 with all his 18 starters. Secondly, Humane’s jockey Danny Sorenson is a veteran, but he typically wins at only 5 percent annually. Thirdly, Humane showed a purchase price of just $1,000.

Mix all of that with an 11-horse field and you get a monster-priced first time starter that was ready to run. What else could you ask for? 

But who knew?

As the Feb. 5 race began, Humane broke extremely slowly and was seven lengths behind the field, which made it practically impossible for her to win at 6 furlongs.

But Humane quickly got into stride to be at the rear of the leading group as the field swung into the turn. That’s when Sorenson really stepped on the gas and Humane surged four paths wide on the turn, passing fillies like she was on a conveyor belt. The impressive move raised the eyebrows of race caller Trevor Denman who responded: “very slow to start, but look at Humane; has gone from last to first and is just sprinting away from them here.”

Up to that point, Humane had run some 10 lengths (slow start+wide trip) farther than any other horse in the race and she had a two-length lead in the stretch. However, she couldn’t last as Shawnie Ora and A Taco Short ran her down in the stretch. After being tons the best, Humane finished third by two lengths.

Her Beyer Speed Figure was a 59, but with the horrible trip I adjusted it to an 87. It was a monster effort and had Humane broken well and not went so wide she would have won by five lengths, as the median Beyer for that type of race is only 65.

This replay is well worth watching. If you have time, go to www.calracing.com and it’s the eighth race at Santa Anita on Feb. 5.

Anyway, Humane came back on March 8 and showed speed while just 7-to-1 in a maiden special weight race, but she faded. Today she’s listed at 6-to-1 and looks like a good bet.

Others who could get the money if Humane doesn’t run her best today include longshot #5 Princess Quinn who’s had lots of trouble, but has flashed good early speed; first timer #8 Court Ballado, who is trained by Art Sherman who has started two debuters for owner Jack Liebau since 2006 and one of them won on Nov. 18, 2006 at odds of 57-to-1; and second timers, #9 Atta’ Girl and #10 Pedo Viejo, who only need to improve a little bit to win at this class.

I will bet $350 to win on #14 Humane at 2/1 or more; $150 on #8 Court Ballado at 10/1 to 19/1; $50 on #5 Princess Quinn at 15/1 or more; and $150 on the longest of the two horses between #9 Atta’ Girl and #10 Pedo Viejo, provided their odds are between 2/1 and 5/1.

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