Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Bye Bye Hollywood                 12/1
#12 Action Gal                            3/1

The only filly that really sticks out here is #12 Action Gal. But second-timer #1 Bye Bye Hollywood is interesting because she almost won a 4-1/2 furlong race from an outside post position — which is nearly impossible.

Action Gal, a Mike Machowsky trainee, showed the best early speed of any of these in her debut race on Opening Day at Del Mar. In that race, Action Gal raced a distant second to Punctual before she faded to third.

She is the type of second-time starter that has run well in the past, but she may get caught wide breaking from the far outside post.

One of the three first-timers in the race may win, but I can’t bet any of them. And the third second-time starter — #5 Whatusaywhatusmean — looks hopeless. 

But Bye Bye Hollywood may run huge. Breaking from post #8 on May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood was caught 3-wide on the turn but still surged to the front in deep stretch before being passed by Lovers House. Also, trainer David La Croix has proven himself over the years with horses making their second lifetime start for owner Meadowbrook Farms.

I plan on betting $150 to win on #12 Action Gal at 5/2 and up and $100 on #1 Bye Bye Hollywood at 6/1 and higher.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

July 22, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#2 Deputy Judy R N                  3/1
#3 Dixie Saint                          20/1
#4 Our Bellini Bikini                   5/1
#5 Punctual                             6/1
#7 Action Gal                           6/1
#9 Wicked Trip                        20/1

Lots and lots of inexperienced runners in here. In fact, only three of the nine fillies have raced and two of those ran only one time.

I like these races because bettors usually won’t pound down a first-time starter, and if they do, the low price makes that horse one of the worst long-term wagers at the race track.In this race, the horses who have run before didn’t show much, so I’ll take my chances that the winner will be a horse making its first start.  

Breaking from the rail, #1 Bye Bye Hollywood did well on May 21 to get the lead while leaving from a wide post position at 4-1/2 furlongs. The gate is positioned so close to the turn at 4-1/2 furlongs that it’s almost impossible to win from any stall outside of the 4 post.

The problem I see with Bye Bye Hollywood is that her Beyer Speed Figure was only 26 and this class of fillies usually run in the low to middle 60s.  At 3-to-1, she is too risky.

The two first timers that look the best are #2 Deputy Judy R N and #7 Action Gal. Trainer Kathy Walsh has a poor winning percentage with first-time runners, but Deputy Judy R N is working out well and this type of horse is a good bet at 7/2 to 19/1. Mike Machowsky, who trains Action Gal, has a good win record with Lo Hi Stable over the years when they send a horse out for the first time. But I will need a much better price than 7/2.

Also, #4 Our Bellini Bikini has strong breeding, trainer and jockey angles in it’s favor.  

For some reason, I don’t know why, Florida-breds have been winning with greater frequency first-time out than horses bred in California or Kentucky. I don’t particularly like when debuting horses train at Fairplex or San Luis Rey Downs, but #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual and #9 Wicked Trip were all bred in Florida. Therefore, I give them all a longshot’s chance.

At the betting windows, I will put $250 to win on #2 Deputy Judy R N at 7/2 to 19/1, $100 on #7 Action Gal at 5/1 to 19/1, but $200 if Action Gal is 10/1 to 19/1.  On #4 Our Bellini Bikini, I’ll bet $200 at 5/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 to 19/1.

Also, I’ll put $50 on any of these runners at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual, and #9 Wicked Trip.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — noon post time

March 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Captain Charisma                      12/1
#3 Leavin in a Limo                         5/1
#5 I am Madison’s                           5/1
#9 Smokin’ Stogies                          6/1
 #12 Military Power                         10/1
#13 Judge Kent                              7/2

This 13-horse competitive opener looks like it could be won by any of several runners. So I’ll need decent odds for any and all wagers.

First, #5 I am Madison’s is talented and has good early speed, which is always dangerous. He could win, but many of the others have more seasoning. 

Like I am Madison’s, #3 Leavin in a Limo has only had three races, which is a knock in these claiming sprints for older horses. My median Beyer Speed Figure and the DRF’s Beyer par are a matching 74, so Leavin in a Limo fits, as he followed a 76 Beyer in his Dec. 28 debut with a 73 on Feb. 8. 

Trained by David Hofmans, #9 Smokin Stogies has been working out well and is dropping from maiden special weight after a 10-month layoff. Also, #12 Military Power, trained by Mike Machowsky, is running his second race after eight months away from the races.  Machowsky has an excellent record with recently laid off maidens.

Two others that must be considered at the right price are #2 Captain Charisma and #13 Judge Kent. 

I will bet $200 to win on the highest three odds horses that are between 5/1 and 10/1 of #2 Captain Charisma, #3 Leavin in a Limo, #5 I am Madison’s, #9 Smokin’ Stogies, #12 Military Power and #13 Judge Kent.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 2:03 p.m. post time

January 15, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                                  Morning line

#2 Izemine                                                      6/1

#4 Forster Hall                                              3/1

Trainer Peter Eurton, who sends out #2 Izemine, has won a couple of similar races to this with first-time starters. Therefore, I will give him a shot in here, although I won’t bet  too much.

Of the horses who have run, none has approached the middle 80’s median Beyer Speed Figure that typically wins these races. Although he hasn’t been out since March, #4 Forster Hall might be ready to unleash a winning performance and I will watch the tote board for clues.

Mike Machowsky, the trainer of #3 Wizard Man, has a good record with debut horses, but most of them were 2-year-olds. Wizard Man has some decent workouts and the jockey is all right.

I will bet $200 on #4 Forster Hall at 2/1 to 7/2 only and $100 on #2 Izemine at 5/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:34 p.m. post time

December 31, 2008 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                             Morning lines

#2 Jet Set Lass                                           20/1
#4 Susananda                                             9/2
#6 Betterthanfiction                                 15/1
#8 Hypnotizing                                         10/1
#10 Bajan Kitty                                           5/1
#11 Gone Punk                                           12/1

This 10-horse field looks wide open and a decent price is likely, as several first-time starters are entered and the favorite looks vulnerable. I will bet more than one horse in here trying to beat #5 Strapless, #9 Suarez and #4 Susananda, if she’s bet too low.   

It appears that #9 Suarez, who is 7/2 on the morning line, will get lots of betting action because she led for most of her last two races and she’s showing the best two Beyer Speed Figures in the race. However, this late in the year, 2-year-old fillies typically win these types of races with Beyer numbers in the high 60s and low 70s and Saurez’  best is only a 61.

Furthermore, if she gets the lead by the quarter pole, Suarez will have to work hard, as #2 Jet Set Lass and #10 Bajan Kitty figure to be gunning too. Also, one of the first timers is very likely to have early foot.  

Of the debut runners, #11 Gone Punk is the best bet and two others — #4 Susananda and #8 Hypnotizing — have some things to like.  The owners of #4 Susananda, Chandler & Graham, have had six debuting runners in my records over the last two years. They won at 11/1 odds on Dec. 17, 2006 and at 7/2 on Feb. 14, 2007.  However, recently trainer Matlow has been winning second time out.

Trainer Craig Lewis, who is saddling Hypnotizing, has won with 2 of his last 9 Larry The Legend-sired debuters and he struck at odds of 12/1 and 13/1. Both won in January 2007, so maybe it’s getting to be that time of year for Lewis. 

Both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction look like automatic throw outs in the Daily Racing Form, but Jet Set Lass flashed good speed to the quarter pole last time and that’s important in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Betterthanfiction broke slowly in her two races, but last time she made up seven lengths very quickly on the backstretch. She then accelerated four wide on the turn while coming within a few lengths of #9 Suarez before quitting in the stretch. Both of these fillies figure to be monster prices.

Trainer Michael Machowsky is excellent when bringing horses off long layoffs. He missed last time with #10 Bajan Kitty, but is adding blinkers and dropping her in class today, so this one looks live if the odds are right. 

At the betting window, I want $200 to win on #11 Gone Punk if post time odds are 7/2 to 19/1 and I’ll bet $200 on #10 Bajan Kitty but only if she’s 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I’ll put $150 on both #8 Hypnotizing at 7/2 to 15/1, and #4 Susananda at 7/1 to 20/1. Additionally, I’ll take $50 on both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction at 10/1 or more.

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