Maiden claiming $50,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Deputy Judy R N 3/1
#3 Dixie Saint 20/1
#4 Our Bellini Bikini 5/1
#5 Punctual 6/1
#7 Action Gal 6/1
#9 Wicked Trip 20/1
Lots and lots of inexperienced runners in here. In fact, only three of the nine fillies have raced and two of those ran only one time.
I like these races because bettors usually won’t pound down a first-time starter, and if they do, the low price makes that horse one of the worst long-term wagers at the race track.In this race, the horses who have run before didn’t show much, so I’ll take my chances that the winner will be a horse making its first start.
Breaking from the rail, #1 Bye Bye Hollywood did well on May 21 to get the lead while leaving from a wide post position at 4-1/2 furlongs. The gate is positioned so close to the turn at 4-1/2 furlongs that it’s almost impossible to win from any stall outside of the 4 post.
The problem I see with Bye Bye Hollywood is that her Beyer Speed Figure was only 26 and this class of fillies usually run in the low to middle 60s. At 3-to-1, she is too risky.
The two first timers that look the best are #2 Deputy Judy R N and #7 Action Gal. Trainer Kathy Walsh has a poor winning percentage with first-time runners, but Deputy Judy R N is working out well and this type of horse is a good bet at 7/2 to 19/1. Mike Machowsky, who trains Action Gal, has a good win record with Lo Hi Stable over the years when they send a horse out for the first time. But I will need a much better price than 7/2.
Also, #4 Our Bellini Bikini has strong breeding, trainer and jockey angles in it’s favor.
For some reason, I don’t know why, Florida-breds have been winning with greater frequency first-time out than horses bred in California or Kentucky. I don’t particularly like when debuting horses train at Fairplex or San Luis Rey Downs, but #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual and #9 Wicked Trip were all bred in Florida. Therefore, I give them all a longshot’s chance.
At the betting windows, I will put $250 to win on #2 Deputy Judy R N at 7/2 to 19/1, $100 on #7 Action Gal at 5/1 to 19/1, but $200 if Action Gal is 10/1 to 19/1. On #4 Our Bellini Bikini, I’ll bet $200 at 5/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 to 19/1.
Also, I’ll put $50 on any of these runners at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #3 Dixie Saint, #5 Punctual, and #9 Wicked Trip.