Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays             Morning line

#1 Bouncer                         5/1
#2 Xtraordinary                   6/1
#4 Lion Princess                  5/1
#5 Coatcheck Girl                9/2
#6 Kaylie’s Joy                    20/1
#9 Flash Dance                    5/1
#10 Metallic Waters            7/2

This is a very competitive race and as usual it’s important to get a good price on any of the contenders.

Making her third lifetime start, #10 Metallic Waters is trained by Bob Baffert, who drops her in class after she showed a bit of speed against maiden special weight company in the spring. On the rail, #1 Bouncer is also dropping and she’s coming off a seven-month layoff.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 68 and #9 Flash Dance has run two of her last races within four points of that.  Other runners like #2 Xtraordinary, #4 Lion Princess and #5 Coatcheck Girl have recently run well and they can all win under the right circumstances.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $200 on #1 Bouncer.  But if Bouncer is not in that range, then instead I will play $200 on #10 Metallic Waters at 5/2 to 5/1 only.

If neither of those two horses fall into their odds zone, then I will put $200 on any of the following horses: #2 Xtraordinary at 7/1 to 12/1, #4 Lion Princess at 5/1 to 12/1, #5 Coatcheck Girl at 6/1 to 12/1 and #9 Flash Dance at 5/1 to 12/1.

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Friday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6.5 furlongs, 2-yo colts

Possible Overlays                                  Morning Line

#1 Valkyrie Missile                                  12/1
#2 Unionize                                           8/1
#4 Infernal                                            7/2
#7 Pauper’s Prize                                    6/1

The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in this type of race is 85 and #4 Infernal ran an 82 in his Nov. 15 debut while three-wide on the turn. He’s 7/2 on the morning line, which is much better than the 2/1 line on #9 Tevez the Tiger, who will probably be over bet with a $450,000 sale price showing and Bejarano riding. 

Breaking from the inside are two first-time starters who could be decent bets at the right prices. #1 Valkyrie Missile is working out well and #2 Unionize has solid connections. Jockey Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Pauper’s Prize, and he has won on a large percentage of 2-yo MSW first time starters.

I will bet $300 on both #1 Valkyrie Missile and #2 Unionize only if their post time odds are between 10/1 and 19/1.  If #2 Unionize goes off at 6/1 to 9/1, I will reduce my bet to $150. Also, I want $450 to win on #4 Infernal at 5/2 or better, and $150 to win on #7 Pauper’s Prize at 3/1 or more.

Blogs begins handicapping Santa Anita Dec. 26

 

 

 

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