Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

October 16, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9
2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6
3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10
4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5
5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8
6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2
7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1
8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4
9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7
10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60
6 – $9.40 $6.80
10 – – $16.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
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Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 2 — won $1,820

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

moneyman[1]This appeared to be a weak field for the level because none of these runners approached the median 82 Beyer Speed Figure that’s usually needed to win.

Surprisingly, the public settled on #5 Rented Cop as the 8-to-5 favorite. I assume it was because Rented Cop was dropping from maiden special weight into claiming. Although this gelding showed some speed in his debut, he really had not shown much overall promise.

Rented Cop’s 43 and 64 Beyer Speed Figures were nothing special and he was an easy favorite to wager against. On the rail, #1 Crazy Wager was 10 or 11 paths wide entering the stretch in his last, so I bumped his speed figure from 66 to 76 to make up for the lost ground.

And #7 Final Journey could have been any kind. He ran OK in his only lifetime start last February, but his workouts were all slow ones. Regardless, I gave trainer Marty Jones the benefit of the doubt.

In the race, apprentice jockey Christian Reyes-Santiago went right to the lead with 18-to-1 shot #3 Del Mar Express. The only problem with that strategy is that early speed is not as valuable at 6-1/2 furlongs as it is at shorter distances. Before even hitting the turn, Del Mar Express was tackled by #2 Velikaya on the inside and Rented Cop on the outside.

Del Mar Express backed up fast on the turn while Rented Cop continued to duke it out with Velikaya. By this time, Final Journey had worked his way through the pack to be third at the top of the stretch.

At 7-to-1, Final Journey rallied to the lead at the eighth pole and Crazy Wager, at 9-to-2, also showed a good late kick to get second.

I bet $400 on Crazy Wager and $300 on Final Journey. I got back $2,520 for a gain of $1,820.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Crazy Wager (CA) Baze M Becerra R 4.30 2
2 2 Velikaya (CA) Rosario J Moger, Jr. E 9.00 5
3 3 Del Mar Express (CA) Santiago Reyes C Mendoza J 18.60 6
4 4 Philly Slew (CA) Baze T Gregory W 5.20 4
5 5 Rented Cop (CA) Nakatani C Pender M 1.70 3
6 6 Comic Thunder (CA) Kaenel K Periban J 4.00 7
7 7 Final Journey (CA) Talamo J Jones M 7.40 1
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $16.80 $6.60 $3.80
1 – $4.60 $3.40
5 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.50 (7-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $153.00 (7-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $69.20 (3-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $34.40 (1-7)
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Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4
2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3
4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1
5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5
6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6
7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40
2 – $4.00 $3.00
3 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)
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Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

June 13, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays             Morning line

#1 Bouncer                         5/1
#2 Xtraordinary                   6/1
#4 Lion Princess                  5/1
#5 Coatcheck Girl                9/2
#6 Kaylie’s Joy                    20/1
#9 Flash Dance                    5/1
#10 Metallic Waters            7/2

This is a very competitive race and as usual it’s important to get a good price on any of the contenders.

Making her third lifetime start, #10 Metallic Waters is trained by Bob Baffert, who drops her in class after she showed a bit of speed against maiden special weight company in the spring. On the rail, #1 Bouncer is also dropping and she’s coming off a seven-month layoff.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 68 and #9 Flash Dance has run two of her last races within four points of that.  Other runners like #2 Xtraordinary, #4 Lion Princess and #5 Coatcheck Girl have recently run well and they can all win under the right circumstances.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $200 on #1 Bouncer.  But if Bouncer is not in that range, then instead I will play $200 on #10 Metallic Waters at 5/2 to 5/1 only.

If neither of those two horses fall into their odds zone, then I will put $200 on any of the following horses: #2 Xtraordinary at 7/1 to 12/1, #4 Lion Princess at 5/1 to 12/1, #5 Coatcheck Girl at 6/1 to 12/1 and #9 Flash Dance at 5/1 to 12/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5:08 pm post time

April 18, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Self Defense                           7/2
#5 Victory Knock                         2/1

On March 29, #5 Victory Knock made his debut at 5/2 in a field of five going 6 furlongs. Jockey Alex Solis did not ask this horse for speed from the gate, so he ended up in the middle of the pack on the backstretch. On the turn to the top of the lane, Solis pushed Victory Knock, but the jockey didn’t seem to be giving him a vigorous ride in deep stretch.

It seems that Victory Knock had a practice race, however he still ran a 68 Beyer Speed Figure. Today, he should run better with the racing experience and the added distance.

In his second lifetime start on April 9, #3 Self Defense also sat in the middle of the field, as jockey Aaron Gryder was not urging him much early. However, Self Defense rallied strongly in the stretch when Gryder pushed him along and went to the whip.

I believe that #5 Victory Knock has a 50 percent chance to win this race, so I will bet $400 to win on him at 7/5 to 9/5, $450 on him at 2/1 to 5/2. But only $200 at 3/1 or better. 

Also, I will bet a $50 straight exacta using #3 Self Defense over #5 Victory Knock.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time

March 13, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#2 Atta’ Girl                                    7/2
#8 Juicy Lucy                                  3/1

I’m hoping that #4 Golden Rocketship, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, takes lots of money. This filly has good speed, but that quality is more valuable in races that are shorter  than 6-1/2 furlongs.

Alex Solis looks live on #2 Atta’ Girl, who was four paths wide on the turn Feb. 28 then was caught in tight quarters in the stretch. She can run better than the 67 Beyer Speed Figure she earned, but she would not need to improve to take this.

Breaking from the outside, #8 Juicy Lucy was pinned on the inside in the stretch in the same race Atta’ Girl comes out of and she might run better with clear sailing.

I will bet $300 on #2 Atta’ Girl at 5/2 or more and $300 on #8 Juicy Lucy at 3/1 or better.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — won $585

January 27, 2009 — maidenking

gordon-middle

Coming into this race, Black Magic Mama lost five starts, but was bet down to 4-to-5 because of the company she was keeping. She competed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, two other Southern California stakes and twice lost to Eclipse Award winner Stardom Bound. 

But her top Beyer Speed Figure was just an 81, which tops the 80 median figure needed to win this race, but does not justify her short price.

Because Black Magic Mama was bet too low, it increased the prices on some of the other contenders, namely #1 Air Fair. This filly, ridden by Joel Rosario, trailed the field down the backstretch then rallied wide on the turn to reach contention. It was a long stretch battle, but Air Fair finally wore down first-time starter #6 Ultra Awesome in the lane.

Black Magic Mama didn’t fire and finished fourth is this six horse field.

I bet $150 on #1 Air Fair at 7-to-2. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Air Fair (KY) Rosario J Paasch C 3.90 1
2 2 Black Magic Mama (FL) Bejarano R O’Neill D 0.90 4
3 3 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze M Guillot E 27.60 6
4 4 Broken Silence (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 2.50 2
5 5 Panorama Ridge (KY) Gomez G Frankel R 7.30 5
6 6 Ultra Awesome (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 26.20 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $9.80 $4.20 $3.40
4 – $3.40 $3.20
6 – – $6.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $14.90 (1-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $105.80 (1-4-6)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Thursday Race 2 — won $370

January 1, 2009 — maidenking

imgres1

The Craig Dollase-effect took hold as the public loaded up on #7 Auntgrace, hammering her to an unbettable 6/5. But that only meant her main competitor #6 Dancing Erin was a better price. Both fillies were racing in their second lifetime starts but Dancing Erin ran better in her debut, holding a clear lead into the stretch and earning a higher Beyer Speed Figure.

On Thursday, Dancing Erin got loose on the lead while jockey Arambula slowed things down so his horse had enough left in the stretch to win by four lengths. I was waiting for 5/2 on either Auntgrace or Dancing Erin, so my $200 bet was in play on the winner.

Also, I wagered $150 on #3 Broken Silence who finished second after clicking into the 10/1-to-19/1 betting zone in the final flash.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Podre de Chic (KY) Almeida G Sahadi J 40.70 7
2 2 Slammin Kat (KY) Nakatani C Tekos, Jr. A 4.10 4
3 3 Broken Silence (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 10.70 2
4 4 Misstrailcityzone (CA) Rosario J Nettles K 32.70 6
5 5 Dothetwist (KY) Pedroza M Mollica M 8.20 3
6 6 Dancing Erin (CA) Arambula P Sherlock G 2.60 1
7 7 Auntgrace (FL) Baze M Dollase C 1.10 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $7.20 $4.20 $3.60
3 – $10.20 $5.60
5 – – $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $27.10 (6-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $151.60 (6-3-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.00 (6-6)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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