Results, Thursday (Jan. 26) Santa Anita Race 6 — lost $830

February 4, 2012 — maidenking

Jockey Brice Blanc got longshot Cloud Top home for trainer Mark Tsagalakis.

When bettors debate about who the best trainers are at Santa Anita, horsemen like Mike Mitchell, Bob Baffert and Doug O’Neill are usually at the top of everybody’s lists.

So, it was no surprise that in a maiden claiming race where each of these trainers had a runner that one saddled by Mark Tsagalakis would be 23-to-1.

It was a surprise, however, that Tsagalakis’ horse won.

Sure, Cloud Top finished third in his first and only start, but it was against maiden $30,000 claimers and today he was stepping up to $50,000. When I watched the replay of Cloud Top’s Dec. 10 debut, I noticed that he broke slowly to be tenth and I was impressed with the ease of how he blew through the field to be third as the group entered the turn.

But I discounted the move, and never mentioned the gelding in my race preview, because he was facing much cheaper horses back then. I even had an angle: 3-year-old second timers with one fast workout won 9 of 44 races between the odds of 9-to-2 and 19-to-1 in sprints longer than 6-furlongs. These horses returned $1.65 for every $1 bet.

Cloud Top fit perfectly, but once his odds drifted above 20-to-1, I threw him out.

Instead, I put a pile of cash on Mitchell’s runner #3 Towering who ran like a 23-to-1 shot, finishing ninth, but was actually just 5-to-2. I was seduced by Mitchell’s great record with second time starters and the fact that he had really begun to heat up at Santa Anita, winning with his last seven of 15 runners.

Another horse I loved, who also turned out to be a dud, was #7 Charlie Company. In two of his past three races, Charlie Company ran a better Beyer Speed Figure than the median winning Beyer at this level. He was shipping down from Golden Gate and his trainer William Morey is capable, so the price seemed right at 10-to-1.

But Charlie Company finished dead last.

I squandered a few more dollars on exactas, but why go into that.

In the end I lost $830 and my four-race winning streak was stopped cold.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Midnight Con (FL) Maldonado E O’Neill D 10.90 4
2 2 Cruxus (FL) Santiago Reyes C Cerin V 58.00 8
3 3 Towering (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 2.50 9
4 4 Cloud Top (KY) Blanc B Tsagalakis M 23.00 1
5 5 Tummel (KY) Flores D Sherman A 4.90 3
6 6 Ron Burgundy (KY) Nakatani C Glatt M 53.60 5
7 7 Charlie Company (KY) Espinoza V Morey, Jr. W 10.50 11
8 8 Visible Marq (FL) Garcia M Baffert B 3.50 6
9 9 Congrats Ski (KY) Bejarano R Walsh K 4.20 2
10 10 Awesome Mike (AZ) Pedroza M Owens R 21.00 10
11 11 Outperform (CA) Flores E Hendricks D 35.50 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $48.00 $21.40 $11.20
9 – $7.00 $4.80
5 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $143.00 (4-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $15078.70 (6-2-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $4917.30 (4-9-5-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1109.90 (4-9-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $412.80 (2-4)
Fractional Times
22.25, 45.00, 1:10.05, 1:23.11
Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 6 — post time 3:36 pm

January 26, 2012 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure: 75

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Midnight Con                             6/1
#2 Cruxus                                   20/1
#3 Towering                                 4/1
#7 Charlie Company                          6/1
#8 Visible Marq                             7/2
#9 Congrats Ski                             4/1

After a slow start to the Santa Anita meet, trainer Mike Mitchell is on fire right now. According to the Daily Racing Form, Mitchell has won with seven of his last 15 runners and he saddles second-time starter #3 Towering in this event.

Mitchell has an outstanding record with maiden claiming second-time starters and he is even better when those horses are running in 6-1/2 and 7 furlong races. Towering, who ran evenly in his Dec. 8 debut at Gulfstream Park, was previously trained by Joseph Catanese III. With the trainer shift, Towering should significantly improve based solely on the colt moving from an 8 percent horseman, Catanese, to Mitchell, who won with 32 percent of his starters in 2011.

Also, Mitchell will leg up Joel Rosario on Towering and this combination his won with 15 of their last 34 runners for a return of $2.49 for every $2 wager.

But, by no means is this a one-horse race. Hard-knockers like #1 Midnight Con and #7 Charlie Company could easily win by merely repeating some of their previous races.

Trainer William Morey is bringing Charlie Company down from Golden Gate where this gelding hit the board in his last three starts. In two of the three, Charlie Company earned a better Beyer Speed Figure than the median winning number of 75 when I adjusted for the ground lost on the turn. Charlie Company’s running style is to break in the middle of the pack, and although Santa Anita favors speed more than Golden Gate, this gelding has a great chance today.

Doug O’Neill claimed #1 Midnight Con away from trainer Jeff Mullins for $30,000 on Jan. 20. Midnight Con’s best race was on Dec. 4 when he came within three-quarters of a length of the winner while running against $50,000 maiden claimers. However, only three horses ran in that race, so he had a perfect trip.

On Jan. 20, Midnight Con had the lead in the stretch, but ran out of gas going a mile. He has an outside chance, but I like Charlie Company better.

Another horse who has run some interesting races is #9 Congrats Ski. In this gelding’s second lifetime start on Dec. 17, Congrats Ski broke in the air and bumped the horse inside of him to lose at least a length. He then lost more ground when circling the field wide on the turn, yet still he ran a 68 Beyer, which I upgraded to 75.

On Jan 7, in Congrats Ski’s first start over the Santa Anita dirt, he pressed the pace chasing Consulado who was motoring through fractions of 21-2/5th seconds for the quarter-mile and 44-seconds flat for the half. Consulado, who is likely a future stakes winner, cruised to a 7-1/4 length victory while Congrats Ski’s jockey saw the chase was futile and breezed him throughout the stretch.

Congrats Ski has early speed, is dropping into maiden claiming for the first time today, and trainer Kathy Walsh does well when employing jockey Rafael Bejarano. Congrats Ski looks solid.

I wouldn’t care too much for #8 Visible Marq, except that his trainer is Bob Baffert, so he must be considered. In his previous race on Jan. 5, Visible Marq ran second to wire-to-wire winner Sir Allison, his barnmate, to complete a Bob Baffert exacta.

In that race, Rosario broke Visible Marq in the middle of the pack, then came with a nice stretch run to earn a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. This colt, who sports several quick workouts, was purchased as a 2-year-old for $50,000 and seems to be placed in the right spot for his third start.

The main knocks on both Congrats Ski and Visible Marq, however, are that they are lightly raced. At 7-furlongs, their lack of experience might be difficult to overcome. It’s true that Towering is also making just his second start, but Mitchell seems to have his second-timers ready to tackle all obstacles.

Finally, #2 Cruxus and #6 Ron Burgandy are both new geldings with good angles in their favor. If their odds stay below 20-to-1, then I’m slightly interested.

My betting strategy: I will be satisfied if at post time I am sitting with win money on #3 Towering at 5/2 and #7 Charlie Company at 9/2. Considering their morning line odds are 4/1 and 6/1 respectively, that doesn’t seem too unreasonable.

Because Mitchell’s horses tend to run better when less than 7/2, I will put $400 to win on #3 Towering at 3/1 or less, but $200 to win at 7/2 or higher. At odds of 5/2 or more, I will put $300 to win on #7 Charlie Company.

If #9 Congrats Ski is 5/1 or more, then I want $50 exactas 9 with 3,7.

If #2 Cruxus and #6 Ron Burgandy are between 10/1 and 19/1, then I want $50 to win on Cruxus and $100 to win on Ron Burgandy. Also, I will take $10 exactas 3,7,9 with 2,6.

Finally, if Charlie Company is 9/2 or more, then I’ll bet $50 exacta 3 with 7; $30 exactas 8, 9 (any odds) with 7; $20 exactas 1 with 7; and $5 exactas 2,6 (if less than 20/1) with 7.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , . 2 Comments »

Monday, Santa Anita, Race 2 — post time 12:32 pm PST

December 25, 2011 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, $20K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                    Morning line
#3 Maybe Tuesday                         8/1
#4 Zapeye                                           4/1
#5 What a Rush                                 4/1
#6 Street Titan                                  5/2
#10 Trando’s Tremor                     3/1
 
I am hoping that first-time starter #3 Maybe Tuesday is cold on the board and his odds drift into the 10-to-1 to 20-to-1 range. Then I won’t have to deal with him. These cagey connections bet their live horses and this gelding is a contender if less than 10-to-1, although I probably won’t take him anyway.

I think a mid-70’s Beyer Speed Figure will be necessary to win this contentious race. Coming off of a nine-month layoff, #4 Zapeye is trying dirt for the first time after not threatening in his three turf routes. Being a 3-year-old who was a May foal, Zapeye is definitely eligible to improve and my layoff information shows that horses who look like Zapeye have been outstanding bets at 7-to-2 to 5-to-1, but they tail off a bit up to 10-to-1. It’s interesting to note that this gelding is named for handicapper and breeding consultant Larry Zap, whose Twitter account @LarryZapeye states that he is known “as the Eye for being able to measure quality in Thoroughbred racehorses.”

Chantal Sutherland rode Zapeye in his first three races, but she moves to #5 What a Rush. Sired by Tribal Rule, What a Rush has plenty of early speed, which I believe is disadvantageous for this class at 6-1/2 furlongs. In fact, only 16 percent of these races are won by runners who get the lead at the quarter pole. However, by what I observed watching What a Rush’s last two tries, it appears that Sutherland and trainer A.C. Avila are working with the horse to throttle back his early energy. To me, this horse appears to fit better at 6 furlongs or shorter. However, What a Rush did run an 81 Beyer figure five races ago on March 25 and he’d be tough to catch if he ran like that on Monday.

Mike Mitchell trains #6 Street Titan. Need I say more?

Mitchell, who won with a gaudy 107 of 324 runners this year — or 33 percent, took over the training of Street Titan this Fall after Ian Wilkes and Roger Attfield made a combined 10 unsuccessful attempts with him to win higher class races in the Midwest and in Canada. The fact that Street Titan is making his 13th start doesn’t bother me at all. Sure, he’s failed 12 times, but all except one of these races were for maiden special weights and at least three of those races were on the grass. Mitchell started Street Titan twice in the last two months for higher-priced claiming tags and, after troubled trips in both starts, I upgraded the horse’s Beyer figures from 65 to 70 on Nov. 3 and 64 to 69 on Dec. 1. Street Titan needs to improve a length or two to win, but the Mitchell magic is due to kick in sooner rather than later.

Finally, #10 Trando’s Tremor began his career for Dan Hendricks on Sept. 2 when he was squeezed after the start at 5-1/2 furlongs to be 12 lengths behind, but then rallied well to miss by just 3-1/2 lengths. I upgraded the Beyer from 57 to 68 to account for what I estimated to be a 4-length loss. In that race, Michael Pender claimed Trando’s Tremor for $20K and then brought him back on Oct. 6 where the gelding pressed the pace from the 11 post at 6-1/2 furlongs to miss by just a half-length. In the 10 stall on Monday, Trando’s Tremor might suffer a wide trip.

My betting strategy: If the odds on #4 Zapeye fall between 7/2 and 5/1, then I will bet $500 to win on him and $250 to win on #6 Street Titan. If the odds on Zapeye, however, are 6/1 to 9/1 then I want just $100 to win on him and $700 to win on Street Titan. If Zapeye is less than 7/2, or 10/1 or more, I’ll bet nothing on him and $800 on Street Titan.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

August 21, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#2 Carrie Rose                                         3/1
#3 Ride a Wave                                       6/1
#6 Rising Honour                                      9/2

Without a doubt, the top early speed horse in this race is #2 Carrie Rose. In her past two sprints, Carrie Rose was pressured on the lead against maiden special weight competition. But today, she should get to the front rather easily and therefore should have more moxie in the stretch.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 66, either of Carrie Rose’s sprint finishes would have beaten many a $25k maiden claiming field. If this race were shorter, she would be a better bet, but speed is usually overvalued at 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs where pressers and closers do well.

Two promising closers in here are also returning from long layoffs. Trained by Eoin Harty, #6 Rising Honour is dropping from maiden special weight where she had been most recently routing on the turf. The move from turf route to maiden claiming sprint after a long layoff is a profitable one. And Rising Honour has the talent to win today, as all of her Beyer numbers either meet or exceed the median 66 BSF for this class.

Although #3 Ride a Wave is making her seventh lifetime start, this is her first in Southern California after campaigning in Florida throughout 2009. Her new trainer Kathy Walsh has a good record with newly-acquired horses and Ride a Wave ran decently in December before being put away.

As far as the odds go, if #6 Rising Honour is bet to 2-1 to 3-1 that would be a great sign that race track insiders think she is training well. If her price drifts to 7-2 or higher, then I will discount her chances.

Ride a Wave doesn’t look as good as Rising Honour on paper, but Kathy Walsh produces top results and I like this filly from 2-1 to 9-1.

I’ve been watching Mike Mitchell’s runners over the years, and he has an outstanding record in maiden claiming races like this one when his horses are bet below 3-1. The morning line maker believes Carrie Rose will be 3-1, but I think she’ll be more like 8-5 or 9-5.  

If #6 Rising Honour is 2-1 to 3-1 then I will be $500 on her.

If #2 Carrie Rose is 5-2 or less and Rising Honour is 7-2 or more, then I will bet $200 exactas 2 with 3,6.

Finally, at 4-1 to 9-1, I will bet $200 on #3 Ride a Wave.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost $400 by betting two $200 exactas keying #2 Carrie Rose at 6-5 to #3 Ride A Wave at 15-1 and #6 Rising Honour at 4-1.

*********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Nosegay (CA) Pedroza M Barba A 28.70 8
2 2 Carrie Rose (CA) Smith M Mitchell M 1.20 3
3 3 Ride a Wave (KY) Flores D Walsh K 15.50 6
4 4 Junes Blue Moon (OR) Gihua J Martinez S 10.80 9
5 5 Storm’n Marisa (KY) Bisono A Chew M 39.60 4
6 6 Rising Honour (KY) Valenzuela P Harty E 4.00 1
7 7 Long Legged Lovely (CA) Bejarano R Jones M 10.30 5
9 8 Gavita (NM) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 60.60 11
10 9 Real Obvious (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 10.80 2
11 10 Love Song Mellody (KY) Cedeno A Martinez R 70.80 12
12 11 Atta’ Girl (CA) Valdez F Polanco M 18.00 7
13 12 Lady Adelle (KY) Velazquez J Sadler J 12.10 10
SCR – Touch a Dream (CA)     – –
SCR – Le Defi (CA) Quinonez A Lloyd J – –
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $10.00 $5.80 $3.60
10 – $10.40 $5.60
2 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $143.65 (3-3-4/10-6)
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (6-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $33.20 (3-4-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $1005.40 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16190.40 (6-10-2-5-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1893.10 (6-10-2-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $137.20 (6-10-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $26.80 (4-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $4411.20 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $78.60 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $71.80 (6-10)

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Thursday Del Mar Race 3 — lost $1,000

August 3, 2010 — maidenking

Jockey Martin Garcia eased #1 Lost Prophet to the lead then poured it on in the stretch.

Looking at this race beforehand, it was easy to tell that #1 Lost Prophet was a contender. She clearly had the best speed, trainer Mike Mitchell has an outstanding long-term record with horses he just claimed, and she worked a bullet on July 23.

Her only drawback was that 7-furlong races are not usually won by horses on the lead. They are mostly won by horses like #3 Indiara and #4 Kaysa Deeya that either press the pace or run midpack then come on strong in the stretch.

As the gates opened, jockey Martin Garcia restrained Lost Prophet a bit, although the filly’s natural speed got her to the lead anyway. On the backstretch, she was able to establish a clear one-length lead with minimal encouragement by Garcia.

In second place, #6 East Lake Shore was plugging away until midway on the turn when #4 Kaysa Deeya passed her rather easily. In the stretch, Lost Prophet widened her lead to win by 8-1/2 lengths, while Kaysa Deeya ran on strongly under jockey Patrick Valenzuela, but was no match.

At 3/1 on the morning line, I planned to wager $700 on Lost Prophet at odds of 5/2 to 4/1, but since she went off at 6/5 my betting plan changed. Instead, my $700 bet went to #4 Kaysa Deeya at 9/1 and I also put $300 to win on #6 East Lake Shore at 11/1.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lost Prophet (KY) Garcia M Mitchell M 1.20 1
2 2 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Nakatani C Fanning J 23.60 5
3 3 Indiara (KY) Bejarano R Harty E 1.80 4
4 4 Kaysa Deeya (KY) Espinoza V Sadler J 9.90 2
5 5 My Romance (KY) Smith M Headley B 6.60 7
6 6 East Lake Shore (FL) Rosario J Yakteen T 11.90 6
7 7 Lisa Lulu (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 18.80 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $3.60 $3.20
4 – $7.00 $4.60
7 – – $5.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.40 (1-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $27.00 (2-6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $300.90 (1-4-7-3)

 
Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

July 29, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming 32K, 3 yo’s and up, F, 7 furlongs 

Possible overlays                Morning line 

#1 Lost Prophet                           3/1
#4 Kaysa Deeya                           7/2
#6 East Lake Shore                       8/1 

According to Brad Free in the Daily Racing Form, Mike Mitchell is 5-for-8 first off the claim with maiden claimers over the last four Del Mar meets. In this race, Mitchell saddles #1 Lost Prophet, who he claimed from Howard Zucker for $25,000 on July 9. 

This maiden $32K race is hardly a step up for Lost Prophet, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is only one point higher at $32K than at the maiden $25K level.  Also, Lost Prophet looks like she’ll get a clear lead and she might enjoy the leisurely fractions in these 7-furlong races. 

However, only 15 percent of all 7-furlong maiden claiming races for older horses in the last few years have been won wire-to-wire. So Lost Prophet does not have the right running style for this distance. 

A horse who does have the right 7-furlong running style is #3 Indiara. This Eoin Harty-trained runner has been bet below 5/1 in each of her last six starts and the Beyer Speed Figures in six of her last 10 outings would win most races at this level. 

But I can’t see Indiara going off at 5/2 or greater, so I most likely won’t be betting on her. 

Second-time starter #6 East Lake Shore looks interesting. Trainer Tim Yakteen who is winning at 19 percent for the year is just 1-of-29 in the last few years with debuting maidens at less than 20/1. 

And having watched the replay of East Lake Shore’s first start, she looks to have been given a tune-up race. She has worked out well and was bet down to 6/1 in her debut. 

Also, Yakteen has a decent record second time out and top jockey Joel Rosario is at the controls. 

I see nothing wrong with #4 Kaysa Deeya, who should come with a closing kick with jockey Patrick Valenzuela up. Kaysa Deeya, trained by John Sadler, also ran a couple of recent Beyers that are close to the median winning speed figure. 

If #1 Lost Prophet is 5/2 to 4/1 then I will bet $700 to win on her. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 East Lake Shore at 4/1 to 12/1. If Lost Prophet doesn’t fall into my odds zone, then I will put the $700 on #Kaysa Deeya at odds of 5/2 or higher.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

October 10, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#2 Al N Con                                  5/1
#4 Morton Owen                            5/2
#6 Smokenomore                           12/1
#12 Lunar Humor                            3/1

Mike Mitchell leads over #4 Morton Owen. While it’s true that this gelding has had six chances to break his maiden and couldn’t get the job done. And that he was bet below 4-to-1 in his last four starts.

It is also true that this 3-year-old is coming off of a four-month freshening and is dropping in class to his lowest lifetime level. Furthermore, the 74 Beyer Speed Figure Morton Owen ran in February equates to an 83 after adding on six points for growth in his 3-year-old season and three more points for a wide trip.

If Morton Owen can run in the neighborhood of an 83 Beyer then he’ll be very tough considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is just a 74.

Another who I give a chance to is #2 Al N Con. He’s also running in a $25,000 maiden claimer for the first time. On July 29, he tired after a speed duel in a maiden claiming $35,000 sprint to earn a 71 Beyer. With softer early fractions, Al N Con may be able to run a 77.

Lastly, Jack Carava, the trainer of #12 Lunar Humor, changes jockeys from Michael Baze to Garrett Gomez. Looking at the July 24 race replay, it appears that Lunar Humor breezed in the stretch. In the past, Lunar Humor has earned low-to-mid 70s Beyer figures, which may be enough to win if Morton Owen and Al N Con aren’t at their best.

I will bet $400 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 9/1 and $100 on #2 Al N Con at 9/2 and above. If Morton Owen’s odds are out of the zone, then I will substitute $200 to win on #12 Lunar Humor at 2/1 and up.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

August 12, 2009 — maidenking

64_D0F8F8D9_A7ACD_B1186_72000_3BA864B05_large[1]

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7
2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10
3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9
4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8
5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6
6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1
7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2
9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5
10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3
11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4
12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12
13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11
SCR – De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M – –
SCR – Swingin Jim (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80
7 – $5.60 $4.40
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez — a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year — will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: “(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 4 — lost $450

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

In a race seemingly full of good betting opportunities, a bland horse that I had no information on ended up winning.

But that just shows me the value of adhering to proper odds before wagering. No matter how confident horseplayers are about a race’s outcome, it’s clear that, really, anything can happen. 

In this race, trainer Mike Mitchell had #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot making her debut. Mitchell has an outstanding record with these types of horses, according to my records, and owner Vessels Stallion Farm was 2-for-2 with first timers.

Over the last year or so, trainer Jeff Mullins has also excelled with young maiden claimers making their first starts. In this race, he had #3 Royally Large.

Mike Puype, who saddled post time favorite #11 Ms. Salt Mine, was 4-of-6 when training second-time starters dropping into maiden claiming and #8 Salty Fries was adding blinkers and dropping for her second start — which was an angle that produced a scorching eight wins in the last 16 races. 

But none of them got close to #2 Hayley’s Halo, who was making her third start after two unspectacular runs.

When the stalls sprang opened, Ms. Salt Mine shot right to a clear lead and she stayed in front until the top of the lane. Down the backstretch,  Ms. Salt Mine was chased by #8 Salty Fries and Hayley’s Halo.

Ms. Salt Mine was gassed in the lane and Hayley’s Halo inherited the lead when she quit. Then another surprise horse, #7 Right to Work who got a zero Beyer in her debut, came running late for second at 11-to-1.

I bet $300 on 6-to-1 shot Sheza Foxy Jackpot and $150 on #3 Royally Large, at 14-to-1, who both ran on late. The damage could have been worse because I considered wagering on both #8 Salty Fries and #11 Ms. Salt Mine, but they were bet below my odds threshold. 

To watch a replay of this race go to www. calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 6.20 3
2 2 Hayley’s Halo (CA) Flores D Fanning J 6.40 1
3 3 Royally Large (CA) Baze T Mullins J 14.10 4
4 4 De Car Chic (CA) Valdez F Dahl T 54.10 11
5 5 Ee to Kinzie (CA) Garcia M Lage A 8.20 9
6 6 Fatal Edge (CA) Scott J Davis D 90.10 10
7 7 Right to Work (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 11.40 2
8 8 Salty Fries (CA) Talamo J Knight T 3.40 5
9 9 Warren’s Skater (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 37.20 7
10 10 Boots n’ Bangles (CA) Arambula P Yakteen T 43.10 8
11 11 Ms. Salt Mine (CA) Rosario J Puype M 1.80 6
SCR – Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Saturn Moon (CA)     – –
SCR – Frequent Fame (CA) Baze M Polanco M – –
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $14.80 $6.80 $4.40
7 – $10.00 $6.80
1 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $61.80 (7-6-2)
$1.00 Exacta paid $107.30 (2-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $737.20 (7-12-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $4649.80 (2-7-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $641.10 (2-7-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $159.40 (12-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $157.40 (2-7)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

May 10, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s +, f & m

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#11 Spacy Tracy                              6/1
#14 To Hot for You                           9/2

Mike Mitchell adds blinkers to #14 To Hot for You, who has shown early speed in previous races. This filly is making her fourth start and has been steadily dropping in class. She had came back from a seven-month layoff on April 19 and may be a lot better than she looks in her past performances.

Mitchell is winning at a 36 percent clip with maiden claimers and won six out of the last 12 times he added blinkers for the first time.  If that’s not strong then I don’t know what is.

Also, second-time starter #11 Spacy Tracy has a couple of quick workouts on her way back from more than a year away from racing. In her January 2008 debut, she ran a 78 Beyer Speed Figure while showing superior early speed to any of the other fillies and mares in here.

I will bet $500 to win on #14 To Hot for You at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $300 at 4/1 and higher.  Also, I want $250 to win on #11 Spacy Tracy at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

This story is written exclusively for Maiden King and cannot be duplicated or reprinted, especially by website Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need to Know.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 4 — 2:30 pm post time

May 8, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Mum Z                                              6/1
#4 Sweet Pea                                        2/1
#7 Sindyfromsantacruz                  5/2

Breaking from the rail, #1 Mum Z is a second-time starter who is adding blinkers for trainer John Shirreffs. The published purchase price is $310,000 and curiously she drops into a $40,000 claiming race after showing brief speed in her debut.

Ral Ayers is taking over the training responsibilities while Jeff Mullins serves out is suspension. Ayers saddles #4 Sweetpea who fits the profile of the type of horse that wins at this class better than any of the other runners. Sweetpea has the right running style and strong Beyer Speed Figures.

Mike Mitchell is unstoppable when his maiden claimers are bet down. Also, according to the Daily Racing Form, Mitchell’s maiden claimers won 27 of their last 76 races for a 15 percent wagering profit. Mitchell’s filly #7 Sindyfromsantacruz is dropping slightly in class after showing early speed in her only two lifetime starts.

At the window, I will bet $300 to win on #7 Sindyfromsantacruz from 3/2 to 5/2. If she does not fall into that range, then I will put $300 on #4 Sweetpea instead at 2/1 or better. Also, if #1 Mum Z’s odds fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will bet $150 to win on her regardless of the prices of the other two previously-mentioned horses.

© Maiden King, 2009.
Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — won $1,745

April 26, 2009 — maidenking

imgres3I wonder how many people looked at their racing forms after this one and wondered how the heck a lightly-raced maiden trained by Mike Mitchell and ridden by Garrett Gomez could go off at 12-to-1.

The money stayed away, I believe, because #12 Grazen was coming into its second lifetime race off a seven-month layoff and had only one swift workout. The $26.60 payoff shows you that when a horse isn’t being bet, then everyone believes its dead on the board and stays away. 

And in most cases, that’s the right thing to do. But great trainers like Mitchell win at such a high percentage that they always need to be respected.

The favorite #9 Raise the River was 7-to-2 on the morning line, but his 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race was like a flashing neon sign that screamed “Bet Me.” He went off at 8-to-5 and Rafael Bejarano was trying to earn his sixth victory of the day, but all he and Raise the River could muster was a second-place finish.

Recently, the Gomez-Mitchell duo has been gold together. Coming into this race, anybody who bet on all of the last 56 horses these two combined on got back $1.29 for every $1 bet.

And that’s strong.

In the race, Gomez broke with #10 M One Rifle and the two dueled down the backstretch. Grazen shook him off in the stretch and drew off to win convincingly.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Grazen and $100 to win on #13 Charlie and Chris. I collected $1,995 and profited $1,745.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Quick Vic (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 28.70 9
3 2 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Espinoza V Garcia O 7.40 5
4 3 Warrens Wild Thing (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 63.70 12
5 4 Teamwork (CA) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 10.70 4
6 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Solis A Barba A 24.00 13
7 6 Cork Creek (CA) Quinonez A Sayler J 56.50 11
8 7 Star Redeemer (CA) Flores D Sadler J 8.80 8
9 8 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 1.60 2
10 9 M One Rifle (CA) Smith M Headley B 7.30 3
11 10 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 45.80 10
12 11 Grazen (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 12.30 1
13 12 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 5.30 7
14 13 Top Biker (CA) Gryder A Mitchell M 39.00 6
SCR – Premiere Flyer (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $26.60 $11.00 $6.80
9 – $3.40 $2.60
10 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $553.00 (3-3-12)
Posted in msw, 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:05 pm post time

April 25, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#9 Raise the River                                7/2
#12 Grazen                                               6/1
#13 Charlie and Chris                          6/1

It seems to me that horses coming off layoffs don’t do well in races like this and neither do first time starters.That leaves me with one big stick out here: #9 Raise the River.

In his last race, Raise the River ran a 92 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a nose. In seven races, his odds have never been higher than 5-to-2, so the 7-to-2 morning line looks a bit unrealistic even in a 13-horse field. I think bettors will see that big last race Beyer and knock him below 3/1. Bejarano, who has won on 15 of the last 46 Carla Gaines horse he has ridden, will not help the price either.

Mike Mitchell trains #12 Grazen and his second-time starters win at a 39 percent clip, although most of them are maiden claimers. Also, rider Garrett Gomez has won on 21 of the last 56 Mitchell horses he has ridden.

With any improvement and a good trip, #13 Charlie and Chris can get there. He ran an 83 Beyer Speed Figure on Feb. 26, which fits in well here as the median figure needed to win this type of race is an 86.

I will bet $200 to win on #9 Raise the River at 2/1 and up and $150 to win on #12 Grazen at 3/1 or higher. If Raise the River falls below 2/1 then I’ll bet $100 on #13 Charlie and Chris at 7/2 or higher.
  
Posted in msw, 3^, 4^, Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $650

April 20, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

Trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Rafael Bejarano won with 14 of their last 43 horses

What threw me off on #3 Indomitable was she was showing a purchase price of $210,000, but she was dropping into a race for $32,000 claimers.

And it’s not like she had run five times and never came close. This was only her second start and she showed speed in her debut, yet the owner was still giving up on her.

No question that Indomitable had a couple of things in her favor, as trainer Carla Gaines has won regularly with second timers over the last decade, and Gaines has a high winning percentage when using jockey Rafael Bejarano.

But, at 2-to-1 on Indomitable, I instead opted for #5 To Hot for You, who was coming off an eight month layoff for Mike Mitchell. Also, I liked #10 Humane who ran a monster race in her Feb. 5 debut, but hasn’t duplicated it now in three tries.

In the race, both Humane and To Hot for You were plugging away four lengths behind #2 Touch Me Babe, who set the pace until the top of the stretch. Indomitable, who tracked the leader all the way, then moved strongly to the lead while both Humane and To Hot for You tried fruitlessly to catch her.

I bet $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 5/2 and $250 on #10 Humane at 5/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 37.80 9
2 2 Touch Me Babe (KY) Baze T Miller P 6.10 6
3 3 Indomitable (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.10 1
4 4 Maeve (CA) Solis A Becerra R 16.60 8
5 5 To Hot for You (FL) Gryder A Mitchell M 2.80 3
6 6 Poolside (CA) Quinonez A Periban J 29.60 4
7 7 Sand Bridled (CA) Cedeno A Stein R 27.10 5
8 8 Hostile Reaction (CA) Stra K Martinez S 45.10 7
9 9 Kristen’s Lil Lady (CA) Talamo J Yakteen T 6.10 10
10 10 Humane (CA) Baze M Meredith D 5.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $6.20 $4.00 $3.00
10 – $5.80 $3.80
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.60 (3-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (3-8-3)
$1.00 Superfecta
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Touch Me Babe                            10/1
#5 To Hot for You                             5/2
#10 Humane                                     8/1

Coming off of an eight-month layoff, #5 To Hot for You is dropping in class and is saddled by Mike Mitchell, who wins at 36 percent with maiden claimers.

Too Hot for You ran competitively when facing maiden special weight company at Del Mar in August and is making only her third lifetime start. This stable’s live horses are bet down, so I will like this filly more if her post time odds are low.

Breaking on the far outside, #10 Humane overcame a huge amount of trouble in her Feb. 5 debut to lead by two lengths in the stretch, but she could not hold on. On that day, she broke seven lengths behind the field then accelerated four-wide on the turn to the lead. It was an impressive move that race caller Trevor Denman recognized when describing the action.

I estimate that she lost 10 lengths so I adjusted the 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day to an 87. But today she is breaking from a wide post again at 5-1/2 furlongs, so she’s likely to be a bit wide again.

Humane’s trainer Derek Meredith is also doing something else worth noting. He named low-profile jockey Agapito Delgadillo to ride, so his name is printed in the Daily Racing Form. However, he switched to Michael Baze and that’s who will be on board.

Could Meredith have named Delgadillo while fully intending to make the late switch in an attempt to pump up the wagering odds? Would a horse trainer participate in such chicanery? It’s quite possible, because Delgadillo is still scheduled to ride #3 Likely a Star in the fourth, so the jockey obviously did not get sick.

Finally, Gerson Racing owns #2 Touch Me Babe and their first-time starters win more than their share of races.

At the betting window, I will put $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 7/5 to 5/2, but just $150 at 3/1 or more. Also, I want $250 to win on #10 Humane at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $150 at 10/1 or more. And finally, $100 on #2 Touch Me Babe at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 2 — won $1,375

April 13, 2009 — maidenking

at-pawn-shops-the-cash-strapped-trade-in-memoriesAlthough he didn’t look like much in the Daily Racing Form, #5 My Man Sumo outclassed this field while dominating the race from start to finish.

It was a tremendous training job by the underrated Rafael Becerra, who does good work bringing maidens off layoffs. He took My Man Sumo over from Wesley Ward after the gelding had run three unspectacular races last summer at Del Mar and Fairplex.

My Man Sumo, who last ran on Sept. 13, had always shown speed, but couldn’t last. Becerra hid this horse’s talent from horseplayers by working him out slowly, but jockey Alex Solis broke him well from the gate and he was never challenged for the lead, winning by four lengths.

The favorite trained by Mike Mitchell, #4 Morton Owen, made a wide run on the turn then flattened out in the stretch while Bob Baffert’s runner #7 Only Be Cause pushed the pace then came up empty late.

I bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo and collected $2,025. But I also put $400 on #4 Morton Owen, so I profited a total of $1,375 on the race.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 King Farha (CA) Blanc B Metz J 25.60 5
2 2 Marquet Rebel (KY) Talamo J Ellis R 2.50 6
3 3 Cracked Code (FL) Quinonez A Mollica M 15.90 7
4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Bejarano R Mitchell M 1.90 3
5 5 My Man Sumo (KY) Solis A Becerra R 7.10 1
6 6 Domestic Gold (MD) Sorenson D Gallagher P 43.10 2
7 7 Only Be Cause (KY) Rios J Baffert B 2.10 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $16.20 $9.60 $5.20
6 – $26.20 $8.00
4 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $202.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $873.80 (5-6-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time

April 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#4 Morton Owen                             2/1
#5 My Man Sumo                            5/1
#7 Only Be  Cause                           5/2

Trainer Mike Mitchell is usually dominant in a race like this, but the one equal he has in maiden races is Bob Baffert. Both trainers start contending horses in this race.

Mitchell’s runner #4 Morton Owen ran a 76 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden claiming $85,000 sprint on Feb. 16. But then the trainer ran Morton Owen in two route races and it didn’t seem like he could handle the competition. He should run better with the class drop and cut back in distance.

On the far outside, #7 Only Be Cause missed by a nose in his last, which was at the same class and distance for Baffert. Only Be Cause has been running Beyer Speed Figures that are right in the range of the median winning number of 68 for the class. He’s been caught wide in his most recent races and with this post position he may get a wide trip once again.

Over the past couple of years, Rafael Becerra has won several maiden races with horses coming back off long recent layoffs. Today, he saddles #5 My Man Sumo who showed speed in his previous races and could do the job at a price.

I will bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo between 2/1 and 9/1, but I’ll reduce the wager to $100 if he’s 10/1 or more.

Also, I want $300 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 3/1 only, but if outside that range then I’ll opt for $200 on #7 Only Be Cause instead, as long as he’s at least 2/1.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $600

April 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson sat in mid pack then unleashed a rally in the stretch to get first-time starter #4 Treadwell to the winner’s circle.

Favorite #3 Total Sum ran a decent race coming off a 14-month layoff — and jockey Joe Talamo was all over him in the stretch — but Total Sum lost by a neck when he couldn’t get by the winner.

In hindsight, the key to this race may have been the low Beyer Speed Figures showing in these horses’ past performances. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74, but the best overall sprint Beyer on this surface for these runners was just a 68.

In light of that, maybe the first time starter Treadwell’s chances could have been upgraded. But no use dwelling on the past because both Bob Baffert and Mike Mitchell have runners going today that may be live.

In this race, I bet $400 on #3 Total Sum and $200 on #7 Lago de Oro.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Winterscore (CA) Baze T Stute M 4.80 3
2 2 Big Water (CA) Quinonez A Pilmer T 5.10 5
3 3 Total Sum (CA) Talamo J Ellis R 1.60 2
4 4 Treadwell (KY) Sorenson D Bell, II T 8.60 1
5 5 Pure Green (OR) Arambula P Schiewe P 59.40 6
6 6 Road to the Throne (KY) Martin G Johnson E 74.30 7
7 7 Lago de Oro (FL) Baze M Scolamieri S 2.10 4
8 8 Some Kinda Monster (CA) Puglisi I Schwizer M 48.70 8
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $19.20 $6.40 $4.60
3 – $3.60 $3.00
1 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (4-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $68.70 (5-7-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $111.10 (2/6-4/5-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $337.20 (4-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $141.70 (4-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $107.80 (7-4)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
« Older posts
%d bloggers like this: