Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Morton Owen 2/1
#5 My Man Sumo 5/1
#7 Only Be Cause 5/2
Trainer Mike Mitchell is usually dominant in a race like this, but the one equal he has in maiden races is Bob Baffert. Both trainers start contending horses in this race.
Mitchell’s runner #4 Morton Owen ran a 76 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden claiming $85,000 sprint on Feb. 16. But then the trainer ran Morton Owen in two route races and it didn’t seem like he could handle the competition. He should run better with the class drop and cut back in distance.
On the far outside, #7 Only Be Cause missed by a nose in his last, which was at the same class and distance for Baffert. Only Be Cause has been running Beyer Speed Figures that are right in the range of the median winning number of 68 for the class. He’s been caught wide in his most recent races and with this post position he may get a wide trip once again.
Over the past couple of years, Rafael Becerra has won several maiden races with horses coming back off long recent layoffs. Today, he saddles #5 My Man Sumo who showed speed in his previous races and could do the job at a price.
I will bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo between 2/1 and 9/1, but I’ll reduce the wager to $100 if he’s 10/1 or more.
Also, I want $300 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 3/1 only, but if outside that range then I’ll opt for $200 on #7 Only Be Cause instead, as long as he’s at least 2/1.