Ky Derby decision on Quality Road hangs in the breeze

April 26, 2009 — maidenking

On Saturday, Kentucky Derby hopeful Quality Road jogged the Belmont Park track and his slight quarter crack appeared stable. So it seemed, all systems were go for the big race next Saturday.

But after a mile and three-quarter Sunday gallop, the crack on his right front foot emitted a tinge of blood.

And that was enough to get trainer Jimmy Jerkens thinking about doing the unthinkable: scratching the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth winner. It’s not that Quality Road didn’t look great on the track, but Jerkens said that the Derby is no place to send a horse who is at anything less than his best.  

“He galloped the way he usually does,” Jerkens told Joe Drape of the New York Times. “I would have been more optimistic with no blood.”

So it all comes down to today. 

Quality Road is scheduled to breeze five-eighths of a mile on the Belmont Park training track.  If it goes well, then Quality Road will be in the Churchill Downs starting gate on Saturday, and Jerkens might be smelling roses a few  minutes later.

But if the colt seems weakened at all by the crack, then the plane headed from New York City to Louisville on Tuesday will leave without him.

“He needs to work to our liking and come out perfect,” said the cautious Jerkens. “If he takes one bad step — forget it.”

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Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 3 — 2 pm post time

April 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3+up, f & m

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#6 Wild Heart                                    5/2

In her March 12 debut, #6 Wild Heart broke slowly, but made an impressive move at the leaders entering the turn. On that day, she was going against maiden special weight runners and jockey Jesus Rios put the brakes on as Wild Heart was within a half length of the leaders. 

She quickly fell back and ended up losing the race by more than nine lengths. Today, she is facing a weaker bunch and should be able to run the 70 Beyer Speed Figure necessary to win this type of race.

You might wonder why trainer Bob Baffert is using jockey Rios if Wild Heart is really ready to win. I believe that if Wild Heart is right, she’ll get the lead and never look back, so Rios will have an easy trip.

Also, I think Baffert’s barn likes to bet and Rios will help the odds stay reasonable.

The most likely challengers to Wild Heart are second-timers #1 Crystal Empire R N and #5 Youknowwhatilike.  Also, the John Sadler-trained #9 I Swear was bet below 7-to-2 both times she ran, so I am hoping bettors like her again in this race.

In the end, Hall of Famer Baffert will probably win another. Therefore, I will bet $300 on #6 Wild Heart at 2/1 or more.

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Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 1 — 1 pm post time

April 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 4-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#1 Swiss Record                               2/1
#2 Gate to Wire                                5/2

In these 4-1/2 furlong races the turn comes up real quickly so the inside four post positions have a tremendous advantage over the others.

In fact, over the last two years only one out of 50 first time starters won breaking from a post position outside of gate 4. And that horse was even money.

So, although I would love to play #6 Suitcase Simpson or #7 Seeuat Sticknstein, I won’t do it because their post positions nullify their great connections. The only horses that I will consider are #1 Swiss Record and #2 Gate to Wire.

Swiss Record has several quick workouts and is breaking from stall #1. Sire Swiss Yodler is known for dropping precocious horses and jockey Joel Rosario can get the job done. Just outside of him, #2 Gate to Wire got body checked hard at the start of his April 2 debut then ran on well. Now trainer Caesar Dominguez switches from no-name rider Pedro Arambula to Rafael Bejarano, who led the Santa Anita jockey standings and won five races at Hollywood Park on Saturday.

I will bet $200 to win on #1 Swiss Record at 3/2 to 4/1, but if his odds are not in that range I will instead put the $200 on #2 Gate to Wire at odds of 2/1 or more.

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Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — won $1,745

April 26, 2009 — maidenking

imgres3I wonder how many people looked at their racing forms after this one and wondered how the heck a lightly-raced maiden trained by Mike Mitchell and ridden by Garrett Gomez could go off at 12-to-1.

The money stayed away, I believe, because #12 Grazen was coming into its second lifetime race off a seven-month layoff and had only one swift workout. The $26.60 payoff shows you that when a horse isn’t being bet, then everyone believes its dead on the board and stays away. 

And in most cases, that’s the right thing to do. But great trainers like Mitchell win at such a high percentage that they always need to be respected.

The favorite #9 Raise the River was 7-to-2 on the morning line, but his 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his last race was like a flashing neon sign that screamed “Bet Me.” He went off at 8-to-5 and Rafael Bejarano was trying to earn his sixth victory of the day, but all he and Raise the River could muster was a second-place finish.

Recently, the Gomez-Mitchell duo has been gold together. Coming into this race, anybody who bet on all of the last 56 horses these two combined on got back $1.29 for every $1 bet.

And that’s strong.

In the race, Gomez broke with #10 M One Rifle and the two dueled down the backstretch. Grazen shook him off in the stretch and drew off to win convincingly.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Grazen and $100 to win on #13 Charlie and Chris. I collected $1,995 and profited $1,745.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Quick Vic (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 28.70 9
3 2 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Espinoza V Garcia O 7.40 5
4 3 Warrens Wild Thing (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 63.70 12
5 4 Teamwork (CA) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 10.70 4
6 5 Mendota Bay (CA) Solis A Barba A 24.00 13
7 6 Cork Creek (CA) Quinonez A Sayler J 56.50 11
8 7 Star Redeemer (CA) Flores D Sadler J 8.80 8
9 8 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 1.60 2
10 9 M One Rifle (CA) Smith M Headley B 7.30 3
11 10 Mountain Guide (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 45.80 10
12 11 Grazen (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 12.30 1
13 12 Charlie and Chris (CA) Baze T Zucker H 5.30 7
14 13 Top Biker (CA) Gryder A Mitchell M 39.00 6
SCR – Premiere Flyer (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $26.60 $11.00 $6.80
9 – $3.40 $2.60
10 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (12-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $553.00 (3-3-12)
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Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

April 26, 2009 — maidenking
bio_bruceheadley

Trainer Bruce Headley is also the owner of #8 Woman Warrior

Coming into this race, #3 Ruffled Feathers looked like she was going to run big. Trainer Patrick Gallagher switched jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and the filly had improved in each of her two starts.

She was bet to 2-to-1 but broke slowly to be near the back of the field. Approaching the turn, Gomez checked Ruffled Feathers and got into more trouble entering the stretch. At that point. Ruffled Feathers was so far behind that Gomez merely breezed her to the wire.

One horse that didn’t get in trouble was #8 Woman Warrior, a first-time starter trained by Bruce Headley. Alex Solis sat her just off the pace and she was a bit wide on the turn But then she came with a furious stretch rally to mow down #7 Running After Boys.

I was prepared to wager on Ruffled Feathers, but she was below my minimum odds of 5/2. Gold Image, #6, was also out of my range and I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Irridescent Red, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wearehaving Funyet (CA) Hill C Mendoza J 51.90 9
2 2 Metallic Waters (CA) Smith M Baffert B 7.40 6
3 3 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Gomez G Gallagher P 2.30 8
4 4 Kant Catch the Kat (CA) Garcia M Sherman A 19.20 7
5 5 Irridescent Red (CA) Gryder A Becerra R 2.20 5
6 6 Gold Image (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 9.50 3
7 7 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 6.50 2
8 8 Woman Warrior (CA) Solis A Headley B 6.90 1
9 9 Suances Rio (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 24.10 4
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $15.80 $7.40 $4.80
7 – $9.60 $6.40
6 – – $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $62.00 (8-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2981.50 (8-7-6-9)
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A big Dodgers fan, TV’s Alyssa Milano loves horses too

April 26, 2009 — maidenking

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