Results, Del Mar Friday Race 4 — lost $450

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

David Flores rode Hayley's Halo to victory for trainer Jerry Fanning

In a race seemingly full of good betting opportunities, a bland horse that I had no information on ended up winning.

But that just shows me the value of adhering to proper odds before wagering. No matter how confident horseplayers are about a race’s outcome, it’s clear that, really, anything can happen. 

In this race, trainer Mike Mitchell had #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot making her debut. Mitchell has an outstanding record with these types of horses, according to my records, and owner Vessels Stallion Farm was 2-for-2 with first timers.

Over the last year or so, trainer Jeff Mullins has also excelled with young maiden claimers making their first starts. In this race, he had #3 Royally Large.

Mike Puype, who saddled post time favorite #11 Ms. Salt Mine, was 4-of-6 when training second-time starters dropping into maiden claiming and #8 Salty Fries was adding blinkers and dropping for her second start — which was an angle that produced a scorching eight wins in the last 16 races. 

But none of them got close to #2 Hayley’s Halo, who was making her third start after two unspectacular runs.

When the stalls sprang opened, Ms. Salt Mine shot right to a clear lead and she stayed in front until the top of the lane. Down the backstretch,  Ms. Salt Mine was chased by #8 Salty Fries and Hayley’s Halo.

Ms. Salt Mine was gassed in the lane and Hayley’s Halo inherited the lead when she quit. Then another surprise horse, #7 Right to Work who got a zero Beyer in her debut, came running late for second at 11-to-1.

I bet $300 on 6-to-1 shot Sheza Foxy Jackpot and $150 on #3 Royally Large, at 14-to-1, who both ran on late. The damage could have been worse because I considered wagering on both #8 Salty Fries and #11 Ms. Salt Mine, but they were bet below my odds threshold. 

To watch a replay of this race go to www. calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 6.20 3
2 2 Hayley’s Halo (CA) Flores D Fanning J 6.40 1
3 3 Royally Large (CA) Baze T Mullins J 14.10 4
4 4 De Car Chic (CA) Valdez F Dahl T 54.10 11
5 5 Ee to Kinzie (CA) Garcia M Lage A 8.20 9
6 6 Fatal Edge (CA) Scott J Davis D 90.10 10
7 7 Right to Work (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 11.40 2
8 8 Salty Fries (CA) Talamo J Knight T 3.40 5
9 9 Warren’s Skater (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 37.20 7
10 10 Boots n’ Bangles (CA) Arambula P Yakteen T 43.10 8
11 11 Ms. Salt Mine (CA) Rosario J Puype M 1.80 6
SCR – Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Saturn Moon (CA)     – –
SCR – Frequent Fame (CA) Baze M Polanco M – –
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $14.80 $6.80 $4.40
7 – $10.00 $6.80
1 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $61.80 (7-6-2)
$1.00 Exacta paid $107.30 (2-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $737.20 (7-12-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $4649.80 (2-7-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $641.10 (2-7-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $159.40 (12-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $157.40 (2-7)
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A few more shots from Opening Day

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Rail birds crowd the paddock fence to get a look at the horses before the Opening Day nightcap

Rail birds crowd the paddock fence to get a look at the horses before the Opening Day nightcap

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Talamo riding for Hess and owner Terri Lanni

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joe Talamo aboard #5 Prophetise heads through the Del Mar tunnel onto the racetrack

Talamo aboard #5 Prophetise heads through the tunnel onto the racetrack

Bob Hess, Jr. talks strategy with jockey Michael Baze in the Del Mar paddock
Bob Hess, Jr. talks strategy with jockey Joe Talamo in the Del Mar paddock
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“Had the double! Had the double!!”

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
"Had the Double!" Del Mar touts weren't having much luck peddling their wares on Opening Day.

Del Mar touts weren't having much luck peddling their wares on Opening Day.

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Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — lost $200

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Mike Harrington wishes every field was soft at the one Towser beat in the 8th on Thursday.

Trainer Mike Harrington wishes every field was as soft at the one Towser beat in the 8th on Thursday.

Most races for Southern California maidens are fairly competitive with at least half the field eligible to win. However, that was not the case in Thursday’s eighth race, which had an 11-horse field.

After #11 Ministerfrommiami was scratched when running off at the gate, realistically this was just a two-horse race. And in what race caller Trevor Denman termed “a romp,” #10 Towser won to nobody’s surprise at 3-to-5.

Other than first-time starter #8 Danceuponthestars, the field was full of colts and geldings that typically dawdled out of the gate and offered no rally. The past performances for these horse were full of single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts.

As the race began, Towser shot to the front with #2 Bartok’s Bonus pressing the pace from the inside. Jockey Mike Smith, who sat with #8 Danceuponthestars in third place, was probably hoping Towser got tired.

But in the stretch, Towser pulled away to win by 5-1/2 lengths. The real race was for second where Bartok’s Bonus, who ran his eyeballs out at 19-to-1, got nailed on the wire by Danceuponthestars.

I lost $200 on Danceuponthestars at 4/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Bartok’s Bonus (CA) Sorenson D Meredith D 19.40 3
3 2 My Royal Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Polanco M 11.80 6
4 3 Venito (CA) Atkinson P Mendoza J 55.70 10
5 4 Warrens Temptation (CA) Quinonez A Gutierrez J 14.70 5
6 5 El Ranchero (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 17.90 8
7 6 Mr. Collen (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 40.40 7
8 7 Danceuponthestars (CA) Smith M Moger, Jr. E 4.10 2
9 8 Quillotano (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 45.10 11
1 9 Lucero Negro (CA) Blanc B Zamora R 23.60 4
10 10 Towser (CA) Baze M Harrington M 0.60 1
12 11 El Chapo (CA) Arambula P Gonzalez F 39.50 9
SCR – Ministerfrommiami (CA) Baze T Sadler J – –
SCR – Google Me (CA) Garcia M Zamora R – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $3.20 $2.20 $2.20
8 – $3.40 $3.00
2 – – $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $22.50 (3-7-11)
$1.00 Exacta paid $5.20 (10-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $39.80 (3-7-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $186.90 (1-3/9/10/11-7-10/11)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2972.70 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $502.00 (10-8-2-1-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $202.30 (10-8-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $36.60 (10-8-2)
$2.00 Consolation Double paid $5.80 (7-11)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $13.40 (7-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $13456.40 (8-11-1-3/9/10/11-7-10
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $154.00 (8-11-1-3/9/10/11-7-10/1
$2.00 Quinella paid $7.00 (8-10)
Fractional Times
22.83, 46.65, 58.85, 1:05.36
 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $150

July 31, 2009 — maidenking

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

In a ride that would have made Calvin Borel proud, jockey Joe Talamo steered #11 Subpoena the Dress onto the rail on the turn then gunned her up the inside in the stretch to win going away at 9-to-2.

As the race began, Subpoena the Dress broke alertly on the outside then faded toward the back of the pack, far behind pace setters #6 Eclipse Sarah and #7 Kaylie’s Joy.

Garrett Gomez tracked the leaders in third with #4 Brilliant Response at 9-to-2 and she surged three-wide on the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch. But just as she had in her previous two races, Brilliant Response had nothing in the lane and could only muster a third-place finish.

Trainer Tim Yakteen, who has two wins at Del Mar from just a handful of starters, had #8 Makit Till Midnite ready to run. This 16-to-1 shot came on the outside with a steady rally to capture the place money.

A well-bet 2-to-1 shot, #1 Lady Alex was a recent claim by John Sadler and she seemed to have tons of run while jockey Joel Rosario sat her on the rail in fourth. But in the stretch Lady Alex was pinned behind a wall of horses and didn’t find running room until it was too late. 

I had a lot of betting scenarios that were tied to the post time odds. In the end, I ended up  with $150 to win on #7 Kaylie’s Joy at 4-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lady Alex (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.00 5
2 2 Angel of Mystery (CA) Espinoza V Marquez A 9.90 7
3 3 Straight Sue (CA) Vergara O Fanning J 33.80 11
4 4 Brilliant Response (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 4.60 3
5 5 Party With Brando (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 28.50 4
6 6 Eclipse Syrah (CA) Baze T Sherlock G 18.80 10
7 7 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 4.30 8
8 8 Makit Till Midnite (CA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 16.30 2
9 9 Mystic Trip (CA) Stra K Martin, Jr. F 61.60 9
10 10 Alphabet Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 21.30 6
11 11 Subpoena the Dress (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $11.60 $6.80 $4.60
8 – $15.40 $8.00
4 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $105.90 (11-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.50 (6-8-11)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15221.90 (11-8-4-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $749.10 (11-8-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $68.40 (8-11)
$2.00 Quinella paid $139.00 (8-11)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 4:30 pm post time

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot                   5/1
#3 Royally Large                            8/1
#4 De Car Chic                              20/1
#7 Right to Work                            8/1
#8 Salty Fries                                9/2
#10 Boots n’ Bangles                       20/1
#11 Miss Salt Mine                          7/2

This race is full of money making angles and I can see any of seven of the 12 runners winning it. When wagering, I will consult the odds board for clues and to determine value.

First-time starter #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot breaks from the rail for trainer Mike Mitchell, who has an excellent record with debut horses in this class. Garrett Gomez has won on both first timers that he rode for Mitchell and the owners, Vessels Stallion Farm, is also 2-for-2 with debuters.

Jeff Mullins is another trainer who does well with maiden claiming first-time starters. Mullins saddles #3 Royally Large, who is owned by David Lanzman Racing Stable and that outfit frequently wins first time out. 

An early foal, #4 De Car Chic is another filly making her first start. She’s been working out well and I’ll need to see the tote board for more clues.

I most likely won’t be betting #7 Right to Work, who is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes. However, if she’s bet below 5-to-1 she becomes a player.

Second-time starter #8 Salty Fries ships in from the Northern California fair circuit.  She ran decently on July 2 and now adds blinkers while dropping in class. 

Owners D & E Racing usually employ Bob Baffert to train their stock, but this time former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen gets the call. Their debuter #10 Boots n’ Bangles has been working out at San Luis Rey Downs and is a good bet if the price is right.

Trainer Mike Puype won with four of his last six maiden claiming second timers that were dropping in class. Although, unlike #11 Ms. Salt Mine, most of them were coming off long layoffs. In Ms. Salt Mine’s first race on July 2 she dueled for the lead for a quarter mile and showed much better early speed than any of the other experienced runners in this race.

With so many horses to like, it complicates the win wagering. My best bet is #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and I will put $300 on her at 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 if she drifts to 10/1 and up. My second choice is #11 Ms. Salt Mine and I’ll take $250 to win on her at 3/1 to 9/1 only.

If either of those two horses are out of the betting zone, then I will put $200 to win on both #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries at 4/1 to 10/1, and $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. But if both #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and #11 Ms. Salt Mine have bettable odds then I’ll put only $100 on #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries and bump their acceptable odds to 7/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #4 De Car Chic and #10 Boots n’ Bangles are 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll put $150 to win on them both regardless of anything else.

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Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#8 Danceuponthestars           7/2
#10 Towser                          9/5

This field of 12 is full of very bad horses that can be easily eliminated. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, but nine of the 10 experienced runners entered in here have yet to crack 40. Furthermore, the odds on seven of them have been less than 20-to-1 only twice in 17 races with the average odds of these 17 races being 53-to-1.

Single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts populate the racing form page. I guess that’s why the morning line maker hung odds of 7-to-2 on #8 Danceuponthestars, a first time starter who has been training slowly at Golden Gate Fields.

Realistically, I can see only three horses winning this race: #8 Danceuponthestars, #10 Towser and #11 Ministerfrommiami. Any other horse would be a complete shocker.

Owned and trained by Ed Moger, Danceuponthestars is switching circuits and jockey Mike Smith has won five times and placed five times in 19 chances with 2-year-old first time starters. Although most of them were in the maiden special weight ranks.

Towser showed a good burst of speed on June 12 and trainer Mike Harrington upgrades the jockey from Felipe Valdez to Michael Baze. Towser should be near the early lead, but his odds may be no better than even money.

Finally, John Sadler sends out #11 Ministerfrommiami who ran in spurts in his July 3 debut. This gelding is running in his second lifetime race, but I like Danceuponthestars better.

At 5/2 or more, I will bet $200 on #8 Danceuponthestars and at 2/1 or better I’ll put $200 on Towser.

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Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 1 — won $1,375

July 30, 2009 — maidenking

imgresBy looking at the post time odds, it’s easy to see that the public could not separate these horses. Six of the seven fillies were between 9-to-2 and 8-to-1 with only #5 Stevie’s Afleet, an 8-to-5 shot, being bet out of that range.

As the race began, #1 Auntgrace battled for the lead inside of Stevie’s Afleet with #6 Hard Eight just a half a length away. They ran that way until the top of the stretch when Hard Eight faded and both #3 Miss Anime and #7 Ancillary made their late runs.

Jockey Brice Blanc, who was riding Miss Anime, couldn’t find daylight in early stretch, so he was forced to take the filly seven paths wide in midstretch. Just inside of Miss Anime was Ancillary with Joel Rosario aboard. These two rallied past Auntgrace, who was nailed for third by #2 Bit of a Lady cruising up the rail.

In my race preview, I noted that second time starters that look like Miss Anime are good bets at 5/2 to 9/1 and I wagered $250 on her. But I also had another $350 spread over three other horses. Anyway, I collected $1,975 and profited $1,375 on the race. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Auntgrace (FL) Gryder A Mullins J 5.60 4
2 2 Bit of a Lady (KY) Baze T Hofmans D 7.20 3
3 3 Miss Anime (KY) Blanc B Powell L 6.90 1
4 4 Sheza Screamer (WA) Baze M Troeger R 8.40 5
5 5 Stevie’s Afleet (KY) Garcia M Cerin V 1.70 7
6 6 Hard Eight (KY) Smith M Headley B 5.80 6
7 7 Ancillary (KY) Rosario J Jones M 4.90 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $15.80 $7.20 $5.40
7 – $6.20 $3.80
2 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (3-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $328.80 (3-7-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $47.80 (3-7)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 1 — 2 pm post time

July 29, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                  Morning line
#1 Auntgrace                                5/1
#3 Miss Anime                             6/1
#4 Sheza Screamer                     8/1
#7 Ancillary                                  7/2
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 71 and second-time starter #3 Miss Anime was not far off on June 19 when running a 65. This type of horse fits well if in the 5/2 to 9/1 betting range.

Breaking from the rail for trainer Jeff Mullins, #1 Auntgrace is coming off a recent layoff and dropping in class. Today might be the day and I will be looking for tote board betting action to provide more clues.

Owner Bruno De Julio, who is the workout analyst for Today’s Racing Digest, has done well when his horses run first time and second time out. His runner, #4 Sheza Screamer, doesn’t fit the profile of a winning first time starter at all, but is probably worth a small bet based on De Julio’s record, but only if the price is right.

Finally, #7 Ancillary showed good speed in her last start on June 28 and that’s important at this distance.

I will wager $150 on #1 Auntgrace at 2/1 to 7/2 only and just $100 at 4/1 to 9/1.  On #3 Miss Anime, I’ll bet $250 to win at 5/2 to 9/1 and I want $50 to win on #4 Sheza Screamer at 8/1 to 19/1. Lastly, I will put $200 on #7 Ancillary at 5/2 and up.
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

July 28, 2009 — maidenking
First-time starter #10 Millennia, ridden by Alex Solix, eeked out a victory at 22/1.

First-time starter #10 Millennia, ridden by Alex Solix, eeked out a victory at 22/1.

The public pounded first-time starter #8 Misinjennuous to the minuscule price of 4-to-5. Perhaps it was because their beloved Garrett Gomez was aboard, or that this filly sported three bullet workouts.

Anyway, these low-priced first-timers continue to be bad wagers. Although Gomez and Misinjennuous gave it their all, #10 Millennia came from off the pace to take a tight photo finish at 22-to-1.

Millennia was not a first-time starter to take lightly and it was no fluke that she won. Millennia was simply overlooked by bettors who likely disregarded this filly because her trainer, Lisa Lewis, is not well known.

On Sunday, I noted in the race preview that #7 Kaloula and Millennia were “a couple of first-timers who could win at a big price.” They both had good breeding, speedy works and some other things to like.

On the site, my $250 wager on Millennia was only valid from 7/2 to 19/1. Millennia’s odds were below 20-to-1 right up until race time, but surged to 22-to-1 when the simulcast money poured in while the race was running.

Although I can’t claim a monetary victory on the blog, I did have $20 in real cash on her and collected $460. Had Millennia stayed at 19-to-1, I would have profited $4,750 for the site.

Instead, the only blog bet I made was $150 to win on third-place finisher #7 Kaloula at 11-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Seriously (KY) Smith M Baffert B 11.10 5
3 2 Mum’s Zip (KY) Flores D Rosales R 14.20 7
4 3 Pulpit Magic (KY) Valdez F Dominguez C 28.30 8
5 4 Modality (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 4.50 9
6 5 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 17.30 4
7 6 Kaloula (FL) Santiago Reyes C Mulhall K 11.70 3
8 7 Misinjennuous (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 0.90 2
9 8 Calcutta Rose (KY) Baze T Lloyd J 26.10 10
10 9 Millennia (FL) Solis A Lewis L 22.00 1
11 10 Whyprincesswhy (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 10.70 6
SCR – Softly Singing (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $46.00 $12.60 $7.80
8 – $3.00 $2.80
7 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $70.70 (10-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid
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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 1 — lost $550

July 28, 2009 — maidenking

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

It’s not often that the 5-to-2 morning line favorite goes off at 6-to-1 and wins the race. But that’s exactly what happened when #5 Box Office Star rallied to win Sunday’s first race.

Box Office Star, trained by Tim Yakteen, ran well in his May 25 debut to earn a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. But horses who have that profile aren’t usually profitable bets so I did not fear this gelding.

Instead, I backed #6 Escaping the Storm and #8 Eisenheim because they were being bet after recent long layoffs. Although they had better long-term angles going for them, they were no match for Box Office Star.

Eisenheim pressed the pace from second then faded in the stretch at 2-to-1 while Escaping the Storm, 3-to-1, rallied up the rail to finish second.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 No Caps No Floors (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 8.70 7
2 2 Great Raid (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A 2.60 6
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 27.20 3
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 10.90 4
5 5 Box Office Star (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 6.40 1
6 6 Escaping the Storm (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 3.20 2
7 7 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Stra K Van Berg J 65.90 8
8 8 Eisenheim (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 5
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $14.80 $7.00 $4.20
6 – $4.80 $3.80
3 – – $9.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $29.80 (5-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1831.80 (5-
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 4 — lost $150

July 28, 2009 — maidenking

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

Trainer Peter Miller had #5 Punctual ready to run first time out

They say many races are won at the starting gate. And that seemed to be true in this heat, as jockey Tyler Baze shot to the front on #5  Punctual and cruised to an easy 7-1/2 length victory.

The owners had to be pleased with the work of trainer Peter Miller, who had this horse ready to win in its first lifetime race. The filly, which was bought for just $1,000, earned $16,200 for the win.

When analyzing this race, I gave Punctual a chance at 10/1 to 19/1. But with a few minutes to post #1 Bye Bye Hollywood, who was about 4/1,  was scratched. So instead of Punctual being 11 or 12-to-1, she went off at 8-to-1.

Instead, I bet $100 on #7 Action Gal at 7-to-1 and $50 on #9 Wicked Trip at 12-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Deputy Judy R N (KY) Espinoza V Walsh K 2.10 2
4 2 Our Bellini Bikini (FL) Talamo J Koriner B 2.00 5
5 3 Punctual (FL) Baze T Miller P 8.80 1
6 4 Fair Kisses (KY) Garcia M DeLeon R 7.50 6
7 5 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 7.00 3
8 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 7.40 4
9 7 Wicked Trip (FL) Arambula P Grayson B 12.70 7
SCR – Dixie Saint (FL) Stra K Grayson B – –
SCR – Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D – –
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $19.60 $6.80 $4.40
2 – $3.80 $3.00
7 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $20.20 (1-6-1)
$1.00
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

July 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#7 Kaloula                                   12/1
#8 Misinjennuous                           5/2
#10 Millennia                                12/1

This 10-horse field is populated by seven first-time starters and three second timers.

I like to see at least a 60 Beyer Speed Figure in a debut race for horse making its second start in a 2-year-old maiden special weight race. And I don’t see any with these three runners.

However, what I do see are a couple of first timers who could win at a big price. The first is #7 Kaloula who has shown talent in her workouts, has the breeding to win early and gets a weight break with an apprentice aboard.

Jockey Alex Solis rides #10 Millennia, who has just as much to like as Kaloula. She’s an early foal, has win-early breeding and Solis and trainer Lisa Lewis combined successfully in limited chances with debuters.

Finally, if 5-to-2 morning line favorite #8 Misinjennuous goes off at 7/2 or more then I am interested. If not, then no bet.

My plan is to bet $150 to win on #7 Kaloula at 10/1 to 19/1 only and $250 to win on #10 Millennia at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, at 7/2 and up, I’ll place $200 to win on #8 Misinjennuous.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 1 — 2 pm post time

July 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible Overlays                 Morning line

#1 No Caps No Floors                  15/1
#3 Learn the Sport                     10/1
#4 Justice Reigns                        5/1
#6 Escaping the Storm                3/1
 #8 Eisenheim                             4/1

Three contenders in here are coming off recent layoffs and, at the right prices, I think they are better bets than either #2 Great Raid or the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, #5 Box Office Star.

Garrett Gomez rides #8 Eisenheim and this $250,000 purchase ran five times in the maiden special weight ranks before dropping into a $62,500 claimer on April 24.  In this more realistic spot, Eisenheim led for half of the 6-1/2 furlong race before finishing third. After a two-month break, Eisenheim came back for $40,000 on June 25 at Hollywood Park, but curiously Gomez restrained the colt toward the back of the pack. This sudden change in running style leads me to believe that owner Jerome Moss and trainer John Sadler were saving Eisenheim’s best shot for today at Del Mar.

Robert Hess trains #6 Escaping the Storm who is switching from turf to synthetic after two decent runs in 6 furlong maiden special weight races. When bet, both Hess and Sadler have excellent records with these types of horses.

On June 25, the Lisa Lewis-trained #4 Justice Reigns looked like he was on cruise the whole way, as jockey Alex Solis didn’t appear to be asking the gelding to give his all. In my eyes, this colt looks alot like Escaping the Storm and Eisenheim, although I like the other two more.

I will be watching the toteboard on two second-time starters, #1 No Caps No Floors and #3 Learn the Sport. Both can be safely avoided in the win pool at 10-to-1 or more, but I will give them a chance at 5/2 to 9/1.

At the window, I will play $350 to win on #8 Eisenheim at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $200 at 4/1 or more. On #6 Escaping the Storm, I want $200 to win at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $100 at 4/1 or better. If either of the top are bet below the 2/1 to 7/2 zone, then I want $175 on #4 Justice Reigns at 2/1 or more. 

Also, if Eisenheim or Escaping the Storm are bet below 2/1 then I will also put $50 to win on the longer price of #1 No Caps No Floors and #3 Learn the Sport as long as they are 9/1 or less.

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Ah, Opening Day at Del Mar

July 25, 2009 — maidenking
paddock

Horses parade in the paddock for Wednesday's ninth race. I attended Opening Day at Del Mar. Check out the scene below and click on picture for more detailed view.

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In the paddock

July 25, 2009 — maidenking
bobbaff

Hey look, it's Bob Baffert

Kristen Olivares

And TVG's Christina Olivares

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July 25, 2009 — maidenking
horse on paddock tv

Afleet's Picasso with Martin Garcia aboard readies for the Opening Day nightcap

Gaines and Solis

As trainer Carla Gaines chats with Alex Solis before he rides Eleventh Hour for owner B. Wayne Hughes

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At the front gate

July 25, 2009 — maidenking
This is what it looks like when 45,000 people all show up at once

This is what it looks like when 45,000 people all show up at once

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