Sunday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

August 22, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo Cal-Breds

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Bruno B                                          12/1
#3 Spot of Salt                                      8/1

Speed does well at this distance and the colt with the best demonstrated early foot is #2 Bruno B. Admittedly, this colt has a projected first fraction that is on the soft side compared to other races, but big odds will make up for the risk.

In his last race, Bruno B’s trainer Steve Knapp tried the $100,000 Graduation Stakes. Jockey Felipe Valdez had Bruno B just three lengths off the lead after a half mile, but Valdez must not have believed Bruno B could win because he did not encourage him much in the stretch. The morning line favorite in today’s race, #4 Woodman’s Luck — who is also Brad Free’s best bet in the Daily Racing Form — came on to finish in front of Bruno B by a slight 1-3/4 length margin. In my mind, considering how Valdez practically breezed Bruno B in the stretch, not much separates the ability of Woodman’s Luck from Bruno B.

In Bruno B’s July 25 debut he was shuffled at the start to be off slowly, then gained good ground while quickly moving four paths wide on the turn. Entering the stretch Bruno B was six wide yet closed to be beaten just over two lengths. See for yourself. In this video, Bruno B is horse #1.

The Beyer Speed Figures in this race seem weak compared to what other winners in this class have run in the past, which is why a horse like #3 Spot of Salt may hit the wire first. Owner La Canada Stables does well with debut horses and leading jockey Joel Rosario is also outstanding on 2-year-old MSW first-time starters.

I will bet $300 to win on #2 Bruno B at 9/2 or more. Also, I want $400 on #3 Spot of Salt at 7/2 to 9/1, but just $200 at 10/1 to 19/1.

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Results: Lost $500 by betting $300 to win on 14-1 shot #2 Bruno B and $200 on #3 Spot of Salt at 12-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Mi Marino (KY) John K DeLeon R 26.10 11
2 2 Bruno B (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 14.60 6
3 3 Spot of Salt (CA) Rosario J Carava J 12.20 7
4 4 Woodmans Luck (CA) Bejarano R Puype M 1.30 3
5 5 Thunder of Zion (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 25.60 10
6 6 Da Boomer (CA) Pedroza M Blincoe T 13.20 1
7 7 Shane Daniel (CA) Valenzuela P O’Neill D 4.60 2
8 8 Mr. Sierra (CA) Espinoza V Bonde J 9.30 5
9 9 Baby Bull (CA) Garcia M Saavedra A 44.70 9
10 10 Jailbird Jimmy (CA) Gihua J O’Neill D 8.40 4
11 11 What a Rush (CA) Berrio O Avila A 14.80 8
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $28.40 $13.40 $6.40
7 – $5.40 $3.20
4 – – $2.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $61.80 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $455.90 (4-3-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1003.40 (6-7-4-10)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $204.60 (6-7-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $105.60 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $68.40 (6-7)
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Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

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