Results, Thursday (Jan. 26) Santa Anita Race 6 — lost $830

February 4, 2012 — maidenking

Jockey Brice Blanc got longshot Cloud Top home for trainer Mark Tsagalakis.

When bettors debate about who the best trainers are at Santa Anita, horsemen like Mike Mitchell, Bob Baffert and Doug O’Neill are usually at the top of everybody’s lists.

So, it was no surprise that in a maiden claiming race where each of these trainers had a runner that one saddled by Mark Tsagalakis would be 23-to-1.

It was a surprise, however, that Tsagalakis’ horse won.

Sure, Cloud Top finished third in his first and only start, but it was against maiden $30,000 claimers and today he was stepping up to $50,000. When I watched the replay of Cloud Top’s Dec. 10 debut, I noticed that he broke slowly to be tenth and I was impressed with the ease of how he blew through the field to be third as the group entered the turn.

But I discounted the move, and never mentioned the gelding in my race preview, because he was facing much cheaper horses back then. I even had an angle: 3-year-old second timers with one fast workout won 9 of 44 races between the odds of 9-to-2 and 19-to-1 in sprints longer than 6-furlongs. These horses returned $1.65 for every $1 bet.

Cloud Top fit perfectly, but once his odds drifted above 20-to-1, I threw him out.

Instead, I put a pile of cash on Mitchell’s runner #3 Towering who ran like a 23-to-1 shot, finishing ninth, but was actually just 5-to-2. I was seduced by Mitchell’s great record with second time starters and the fact that he had really begun to heat up at Santa Anita, winning with his last seven of 15 runners.

Another horse I loved, who also turned out to be a dud, was #7 Charlie Company. In two of his past three races, Charlie Company ran a better Beyer Speed Figure than the median winning Beyer at this level. He was shipping down from Golden Gate and his trainer William Morey is capable, so the price seemed right at 10-to-1.

But Charlie Company finished dead last.

I squandered a few more dollars on exactas, but why go into that.

In the end I lost $830 and my four-race winning streak was stopped cold.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Midnight Con (FL) Maldonado E O’Neill D 10.90 4
2 2 Cruxus (FL) Santiago Reyes C Cerin V 58.00 8
3 3 Towering (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 2.50 9
4 4 Cloud Top (KY) Blanc B Tsagalakis M 23.00 1
5 5 Tummel (KY) Flores D Sherman A 4.90 3
6 6 Ron Burgundy (KY) Nakatani C Glatt M 53.60 5
7 7 Charlie Company (KY) Espinoza V Morey, Jr. W 10.50 11
8 8 Visible Marq (FL) Garcia M Baffert B 3.50 6
9 9 Congrats Ski (KY) Bejarano R Walsh K 4.20 2
10 10 Awesome Mike (AZ) Pedroza M Owens R 21.00 10
11 11 Outperform (CA) Flores E Hendricks D 35.50 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $48.00 $21.40 $11.20
9 – $7.00 $4.80
5 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $143.00 (4-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $15078.70 (6-2-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $4917.30 (4-9-5-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1109.90 (4-9-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $412.80 (2-4)
Fractional Times
22.25, 45.00, 1:10.05, 1:23.11
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Thursday, Santa Anita Race 8 — post time 4:38 pm

February 2, 2012 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $30,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure: 68

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Mr Pappagiorgio                     15/1
#2 King Bill                           10/1
#3 The Black                           2/1
#4 I Know That                         8/1
#5 Airplane Mode                       12/1
#8 Patriotic Lion                      4/1
#9 Jamakagoodsense                     8/1
#10 Papa P B                           3/1

Without a doubt, the strongest horse in this race is #3 The Black. Trained by Doug O’Neill, this colt has run in enough races to build the stamina necessary to survive 7 furlongs and his 74 Beyer Speed Figure — albeit earned on the grass — stamps him with the ability to get the job done today. The switch from Blanc to Bejarano should also help lead to good things.

But all of O’Neill’s plans with The Black today could easily be foiled if #8 Patriotic Lion shows the dominant early speed that he’s capable of. On Oct. 1 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Patriotic Lion outbroke eight others in a maiden special weight race while rolling through brilliant fractions of 21-2/5ths seconds for the quarter mile and 44-2/5ths seconds for the half. In Patriotic Lion’s next two races — at 7 furlongs and 1 mile — he unimpressively pressed the pace then faded badly.

And what happened with Patriotic Lion last time he ran is anybody’s guess. On Jan. 21, jockey Freddie Lenclud took Patriotic Lion to the back of the pack then rallied mildly to finish a well-beaten third. On that day, maybe trainer Patrick Biancone was trying to teach Patriotic Lion to rate and it may all pay off today with a wire-to-wire score.

Looking over the past performances, I can’t see any horse that can keep up with Patriotic Lion down the backstretch. Unless one of the first or second time starters surprise by gunning for the lead, then Patriotic Lion should get away with easy early fractions. The only question that will then remain is whether this runner can ration his energy across seven furlongs.

 This colt looks like a horse to use on top in the gimmicks, but not for second or third as he may pop and stop.

Of the five second-time starters, the best bets to hit the board look like #4 I Know That and #10 Papa P B.

In I Know That’s debut on Jan. 21, he trailed down the backstretch over a wet-fast track then was very wide into the lane while passing a few horses to finish seventh. He doesn’t look like much, but adding blinkers today may aid in the dramatic improvement he would need to win. With the other talent in this race, I would need at least 5-to-1 to consider him. 

The far outside horse — Papa P B — has a good chance to run well because trainer Dan Hendricks does better as the sprints get longer. The Daily Racing Form reports that Papa P B has flashed early speed in the morning, but he broke slowly in his only race. This colt is 3-to-1 on the morning line and I will need at least 5-to-1 before I reach into my pocket.

The first time starters have hidden angles in here, so they may fire at big prices. Breaking from the rail, #1 Mr Pappagiorgio has the type of debut breeding that wins 6-1/2 and 7-furlong maiden claiming races. And this gelding’s trainer, Kristin Mulhall, does well in spots like this.

Bertrando, who is the sire of the other firster #5 Airplane Mode, is winning with more than 20 percent of his debut horses on the circuit with post-time odds of less than 20-to-1. Every $1 bet on these runners returned $1.54.  But Airplane Mode’s trainer Tim Yakteen usually does best with horses making their second starts. At odds of 10/1 to 19/1, however, both he and Mr Pappagiorgio may be worth the risk.

If The Black or Patriotic Lion do not fire, then Golden Gate invader King Bill looks like he could pick up the pieces at a fat price. In his last, jockey Russell Baze took King Bill five paths wide on the turn and they drifted into the seven path while entering the stretch. I bumped King Bill’s Beyer Speed Figure from 58 to 65 to make up for the lost ground and just a slight improvement would win most races at this class.

My betting strategy: I am betting $350 to win on #3 The Black at less than 2/1 and $500 to win on him at 2/1 or higher. I will try to hit a decent exacta by excluding #8 Patriotic Lion from the second spot while playing some others. I want $20 exactas 3 with 1, 2, 4, 5.  If #4 I Know That is 5/1 or better, then I will take another $10 exacta box 3,4. And at the same 5/1 or better odds, I will take $100 to win on #4 I Know That.

At 10/1 or more, I want a $10 exacta box 2, 3 and $100 to win on #2 King Bill.

Patriotic Lion may dominate this race, so as a hedge I want a $10 trifecta 8 with 3 with 1, 2, 4, 5.  And a $5 trifecta 8 with 2 with 1, 3, 4, 5.

Finally, at odds of 10/1 to 19/1, I will put $100 on both #1 Mr Pappagiorgio and #5 Airplane Mode.

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Results, Del Mar, Friday Race 8 – lost $180

July 28, 2010 — maidenking

Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed Irish-bred Titus Aurelius for $25,000 on June 4 and won a Maiden $32K claiming race with him

My first thought when I saw the morning line for this race was that the odds for #9 Titus Auerelius, at 5-to-2, needed to be much closer to those of #3 D’oro Dancer, at 9-to-2. 

D’oro Dancer had stamina, speed and decent Beyer Speed Figures. And although Titus Aurelius’ past performances looked OK, it was obvious that he was the morning line favorite because of the glamour connections of jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Doug O’Neill. 

O’Neill claimed Titus Aurelius from Simon Callaghan on June 4 for $25,000 and on June 25 the gelding showed speed before fading in a maiden special weight turf sprint. On Friday, as the horses loaded into the gate, the public saw what I saw and made Titus Aurelius 8-to-5 and D’oro Dancer 2-to-1.   

In this race, Rosario quickly went to the front with Titus Aurelius, who cruised willingly on the lead down the backstretch in this 7-furlong sprint.  D’oro Dancer, who was also running without being asked, got to the flank of Titus Aurelius as the field swang into the turn. 

At the quarter pole, jockey Tyler Baze pushed D’oro Dancer to within a half length of Titus Aurelius and it looked like a stretch duel was forthcoming. However, when Rosario asked Titus Aurelius for more, he kicked away to an easy three-length win. 

I was prepared to put $650 on D’oro Dancer at 5-to-2 or better, but his post time odds were just 2-to-1. Another one of my wagers was to bet #7 Big Wags at 3-to-1 or better, but only if D’oro Dancer was also 7-to-2 or more, which he was not. 

However, I forgot to specify odds for the exotics, which included keying 39-to-1 shot Spinco Bob for third in the trifecta and second in the exacta to D’oro Dancer and Spinco Bob. Those bets cost me $180.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Not in Siberia (CA) Garcia M Ordonez A 12.90 7
2 2 Kim’s Leading Man (CA) Gonzalez A Abrams B 18.90 2
3 3 D’oro Dancer (KY) Baze T Walsh K 2.10 3
4 4 My Last Tycoon (NY) Espinoza V Stute M 10.60 4
6 5 Yvett’s Maar (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 45.90 9
7 6 Big Wags (ON) Bejarano R Glatt M 4.00 6
8 7 Spinco Bob (CA) Pedroza M Velasquez D 39.00 8
9 8 Titus Aurelius (IRE) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.70 1
10 9 Anga (CA) Berrio O Garcia V 20.30 5
SCR – Brianville (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Callaghan C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $5.40 $3.60 $2.80
2 – $9.80 $5.20
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $337.30 (8-2/6-10-5/9)
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $12.50 (6-4/5-9)
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $73.90 (6-10-9)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2633.10 (7 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $2298.40 (9-2-3-4-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $559.00 (9-2-3-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $121.30 (9-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $24.00 (10-9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $138257.00 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $965.60 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $56.80 (2-9)
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Friday, Del Mar Race 8 — 7:30 pm post time

July 23, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden 32k, 3-yo and up, 7 furlongs

Possible overlays                Morning line

#3 D’oro Dancer                         9/2
#7 Big Wags                              3/1
#8 Spinco Bob                           15/1

Besides having jockey Joel Rosario aboard, I can’t see why #9 Titus Aurelius is favored in the morning line over #3 D’oro Dancer. I guess the morning line maker believes that Doug O’Neill, who claimed the gelding on June 4, will combine with Rosario to work their magic.

But trainer Kathy Walsh is also very good, too. D’oro Dancer is dropping from maiden special weight and the 74 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in a May 2 route makes him a strong contender.

Rafael Bejarano rides #7 Big Wags and he should lead or be close to the front at the half mile mark. If D’oro Dancer doesn’t fire, this one might be tough to run down.

Finally, #8 Spinco Bob ran well going 1-1/16 miles on May 21 and he has the right running style for 7 furlongs. This longshot could blow up the trifecta.

I will spread my $1,000 out this way: At 5/2 or better, I want $650 to win on #3 D’oro Dancer.  If both D’oro Dancer is 7/2 or more and #7 Big Wags is 3/1 or better, then I will take $200 to win on Big Wags, also.

In the exotics, I want a $50 exacta box 3/7 and I will play #8 Spinco Bob in the secondary slots with $20 exactas 3,7/8 and $5 trifectas 3,7 with 3,7,9,2,4 with 8.

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Cal Cup Day — lost $600

October 4, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Doug O'Neill sadded both halves of the Juvenile Stakes exacta

Trainer Doug O'Neill sadded both halves of the Juvenile Stakes exacta

Saturday was California Cup Day, so no maiden races were slated.

I played the 2-year-old stakes races, which were both run at 7 furlongs, but the closest I got was when #5 Wolf Tail came charging late for second place in the Juvenile. Doug O’Neill not only trained Wolf Tail, a 6/1 shot, but he also saddled the winner, Bench the Judge, at 5/1.

In the Juvenile Fillies, I liked #2 Miss Georgie Girl, who did absolutely nothing. Garrett Gomez was urging her on in the stretch, but Miss Georgie Girl’s tank was empty as she faded to the back of the pack.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Take a Peak (CA) Nakatani C Hollendorfer J 23.30 6
2 2 Miss Georgie Girl (CA) Gomez G Walsh K 2.80 8
3 3 Camille C (CA) Bejarano R Polanco M 3.50 2
4 4 Dinnr With Nikki C (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sherlock G 55.20 5
5 5 Puritan Baker (CA) Rosario J Lenzini M 24.60 4
6 6 Whispering Hush (CA) Solis A Kruljac J 3.60 3
7 7 U Turn Me Crazy (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 26.10 7
8 8 La Nez (CA) Smith M Kruljac J 2.20 1
9 9 Moon Quist Rose (CA) Baze R Morey W 23.80 9
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $6.40 $3.60 $2.40
3 – $4.60 $3.00
6 – – $2.80

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Warren’s Doc Gus (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 7.80 7
2 2 Swiss Exploit (CA) Baze M Harrington M 42.00 6
3 3 Really Uptown (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 7.60 4
5 4 Wolf Tail (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 6.30 2
6 5 Swiss Arrogant (CA) Gomez G Carava J 10.10 9
7 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 2.80 3
8 7 Tribal Face (CA) Baze T Knapp S 2.70 5
9 8 Bench the Judge (KY) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.90 1
10 9 Chocolate Marini (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 31.90 8
SCR – Cat Calloway (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $13.80 $6.40 $3.40
5 – $8.00 $4.60
7 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $35.20 (3-4-9)

 

  
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.70 (8-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $83.50 (1-2-8)
$
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays             Morning line

#2 Dixie’s Sandals                     8/1
#3 Seriously                             3/1
#4 Star of Sapphire                   4/1
#5 Vivacious Anna                    8/1

Although #6 Imperatriz showed good speed in her debut and lasted for second, this filly had an easy trip yet didn’t run anywhere close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 80 for this class.

If the public sends Imperatriz off at close to her 5-to-2 morning line then I will enthusiastically bet against both her and #7 It Tiz, a first time starter who is 4-to-1 on the early line.

Much better potential wagers are #2 Dixie’s Sandals, #4 Star of Sapphire and #5 Vivacious Anna. Also, the Bob Baffert-trained #3 Seriously obviously has a decent shot, but she may be overbet.

Jockey Mike Smith rode Seriously in her debut, but now he shows up on Star of Sapphire, who’s been working out well. Star of Sapphire has a few good betting angles going for her.

Doug O’Neill saddles #5 Vivacious Anna and O’Neill has done well with this type of maiden in the past. Finally, Dixie Sandals has mostly slow workouts, but she fits the profile of a winning debuter — but only if she falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 betting range.

I will bet $250 to win on #4 Star of Sapphire at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on #5 Vivacious Anna at 5/1 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 Dixie’s Sandals at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the public goes overboard on Star of Sapphire and bets her below 7-to-2, then I will instead substitute $200 to win on #3 Seriously at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

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Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez — a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year — will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: “(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

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Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 2 — lost $200

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

I did a couple of things right in this race — like laying off the two Doug O’Neill-trained  horses, #5 Moon Over Malibu and #11 Juicy Lucy. These two fillies, who were 7-to-2 and 4-to-1 respectively, have had many chances to win, are usually bet well and have deteriorating form.

I opted, instead, for #10 Artistryandrhythm who was an 8-to-1 shot coming off a layoff of more than a year. This horse’s trainer, Ron Ellis, has a good record with this type of horse and over the years this angle has been profitable.

Artistryandrhythm bounded out of the gate first, which is always a good sign, but ran in the middle of the pack the rest of the way. I also made one major mistake and that was not taking a closer look at the winner, #6 Classy Attraction.

When I checked the early pace with my software, Classy Attraction had the top speed to the quarter mile, which is another money-making angle. In 2008, she was four lengths behind a 20-3/5 second quarter mile and in another race she had the lead with a 21-3/5 second quarter.

But Classy Attraction hadn’t run since May 2008 and I shied away from his low-profile connections of jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez. If she was any good, I thought, why wouldn’t somebody more accomplished be training her?

Others must have overlooked her too, as she wired the field and paid $30.40. In the end,  it looks like Arambula and Martinez got the last laugh.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 2.70 2
2 2 Emba U. T. K. (KY) Stra K Ho H 28.60 6
3 3 Dee Dee’s Flight (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 19.90 8
4 4 Dan’s Morning Sky (CA) Kaenel K Fulmer D 80.00 10
5 5 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 3.80 3
6 6 Classy Attraction (KY) Arambula P Martinez S 14.20 1
7 7 Cisco’s Girl (CA) Scott J Flores F 58.00 11
8 8 With Respect (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 15.80 4
9 9 Sweet Allie Marie (CA) Rosario J Abrams B 4.70 5
10 10 Artistryandrhythm (CA) Santiago Reyes C Ellis R 8.80 7
11 11 Juicy Lucy (CA) Gryder A O’Neill D 4.00 9
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $30.40 $13.20 $8.20
1 – $4.20 $3.20
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $75.90 (6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2928.40 (6-1-5-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $325.20 (6-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $184.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $69.40 (1-6)
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Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1
2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5
3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4
4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6
5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3
6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7
7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20
7 – $2.60 $2.60
5 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 5 — 4 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 John Scott                           4/1
#6 Runaway Bandido                 20/1
#10 L’il Charlie Rose                   20/1
#11 Twenty Hawks                    8/1
#1A Full Effect                          7/2

The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge ran well on July 5 when he finished third in a race where the second-place horse, Lion’s Story, came back to win on Saturday. He’s legitimate, but with Garrett Gomez riding, Bench the Judge will almost certainly be overbet.

Therefore, I will look to one of the first time starters to run a monster race. Carla Gaines trains #5 John Scott and she wins with a large percentage of debuters that go off at less than 8/1. So, it appears that this barn bets the good ones.

Judi Partridge owns #6 Runaway Bandido. She won with two of her last three first-time starters, and they were both trained by Rafael Becerra.

It’s possible that trainer Doug O’Neill may be sitting on a good one with #10 L’Il Charlie Rose. O’Neill will also saddle Bench the Judge and I’ve seen this scenerio played out all too many times. The trainer puts two horses in the race and they both run well, but the longer price defeats the chalk.

Also, trainer Mike Harrington is dangerous when he both owns and trains a Swiss Yodler 2-year-old. No doubt, Harrington has an excellent record first time out with these types, but most of the winners came at 4-1/2 furlongs. 

Finally, #11 Twenty Hawks is a good bet if the price is right.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 to win on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 L’Il Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. At 3/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $150 on #5 John Scott.

I won’t bet #1A if he’s still part of the entry with #1 Zees Echo. But if Zees Echo is scratched, then I’ll bet $150 on 1A Full Effect at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#10 Artistryandrythm                 6/1

This race looks weak for the level, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, yet few horses in the field have run recent races in the 60’s. Yes, trainer Doug O’Neill starts two runners, but #5 Moon Over Malibu lost his last five sprints at less than 4-to-1, and #11 Juicy Lucy was the beaten favorite in her last three.

They are both desperately in need of a win and no doubt have found their correct level — the bottom. Instead of taking another chance on either one of them, I will probably be betting #10 Artistryandrythm, who trainer Ron Ellis is bringing back from a layoff of more than a year.

Over the years, this is the type of horse that hits the winners circle frequently enough to be a long-term money winner for backers. The public is infatuated with Beyer Speed Figures run by recently raced horses and, in general, shies away from those laid up for long periods. To me, that flawed thinking equals $$$.

Trainer Ellis has a good record with this type of animal, and the only thing that concerns me is that most of these layoff winners ran their best after having a race back.

In any event, I will put $200 on #10 Artistryandrhythm at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 4:30 pm post time

July 31, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot                   5/1
#3 Royally Large                            8/1
#4 De Car Chic                              20/1
#7 Right to Work                            8/1
#8 Salty Fries                                9/2
#10 Boots n’ Bangles                       20/1
#11 Miss Salt Mine                          7/2

This race is full of money making angles and I can see any of seven of the 12 runners winning it. When wagering, I will consult the odds board for clues and to determine value.

First-time starter #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot breaks from the rail for trainer Mike Mitchell, who has an excellent record with debut horses in this class. Garrett Gomez has won on both first timers that he rode for Mitchell and the owners, Vessels Stallion Farm, is also 2-for-2 with debuters.

Jeff Mullins is another trainer who does well with maiden claiming first-time starters. Mullins saddles #3 Royally Large, who is owned by David Lanzman Racing Stable and that outfit frequently wins first time out. 

An early foal, #4 De Car Chic is another filly making her first start. She’s been working out well and I’ll need to see the tote board for more clues.

I most likely won’t be betting #7 Right to Work, who is trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes. However, if she’s bet below 5-to-1 she becomes a player.

Second-time starter #8 Salty Fries ships in from the Northern California fair circuit.  She ran decently on July 2 and now adds blinkers while dropping in class. 

Owners D & E Racing usually employ Bob Baffert to train their stock, but this time former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen gets the call. Their debuter #10 Boots n’ Bangles has been working out at San Luis Rey Downs and is a good bet if the price is right.

Trainer Mike Puype won with four of his last six maiden claiming second timers that were dropping in class. Although, unlike #11 Ms. Salt Mine, most of them were coming off long layoffs. In Ms. Salt Mine’s first race on July 2 she dueled for the lead for a quarter mile and showed much better early speed than any of the other experienced runners in this race.

With so many horses to like, it complicates the win wagering. My best bet is #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and I will put $300 on her at 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 if she drifts to 10/1 and up. My second choice is #11 Ms. Salt Mine and I’ll take $250 to win on her at 3/1 to 9/1 only.

If either of those two horses are out of the betting zone, then I will put $200 to win on both #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries at 4/1 to 10/1, and $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. But if both #1 Sheza Foxy Jackpot and #11 Ms. Salt Mine have bettable odds then I’ll put only $100 on #3 Royally Large and #8 Salty Fries and bump their acceptable odds to 7/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #4 De Car Chic and #10 Boots n’ Bangles are 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll put $150 to win on them both regardless of anything else.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Bejarano injured after horse breaks down in the 3rd

July 25, 2009 — maidenking
Mi Rey getting vanned off

An 8-year-old claimer who won 10 or 37 starts and nearly $200,000, Mi Rey went down in the stretch after fatally injuring his leg and was vanned off.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — lost $700

June 23, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Four horses looked like they could win this race, and although they all ran well, second-time starter #12 I Want My Money was clearly the best.

Trainer Jeff Mullins, whose Hollywood Park win rate is hovering around 30 percent, dropped I Want My Money in class from a $50,000 maiden claimer where he debuted on May 21. In that race, I Want My Money was obviously not at his best as jockey Martin Garcia hustled him the whole way, but could only muster a 68 Beyer Speed Figure.

But I Want My Money was working out right along and he had a fast drill on June 6, which set him up well for this win at 7-to-2.

The race began as jockey Tyler Baze shot #5 Gifted Student to the front. This John Sadler runner hadn’t raced since Oct. 13, but Sadler excels at getting horses like this gelding into the winner’s circle. Gifted Student was challenged at the top of the stretch by #14 Quality Plus, another second-timer who had the desirable combination of early speed and the best last race Beyer Speed Figure.

But Gifted Student shook Quality Plus off at the top of the lane to pull ahead by a length. However, Quality Plus fought right back, closing the gap.

Their stretch duel was interrupted by I Want My Money who came blasting up between horses and blew them both away to win by 2-1/2 lengths. Born to Cus, an improving Doug O’Neill runner making his third start at 7-to-1, ran late and won a three-way photo for second.

I put $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at 6/1. Also, I had $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus, whose odds were 3.0-to-1, but if he’d been bet to 2.9-to-1 instead then my $200 would have shifted to the winner #12 I Want My Money.

I also had $100 to win on #13 Born to Cus.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Truly a Delight (CA) Pedroza M Bernstein D 17.50 8
2 2 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 6.70 9
4 3 Street Premier (KY) Arambula P Guillot E 59.00 11
5 4 Gifted Student (CA) Baze T Sadler J 6.30 4
6 5 Turbo Energy (CA) Baze M Barocio L 12.30 5
7 6 Deification (KY) Talamo J Hofmans D 10.50 13
8 7 Santi Santi Santi (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S 11.80 7
9 8 Ryland (CA) Delgadillo A Yakteen T 101.60 6
10 9 Illusive Dealer (CA) Sandoval D Fama D 82.00 12
11 10 Tralee Creek (KY) Valdez F DeLima J 74.80 10
12 11 I Want My Money (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 3.90 1
13 12 Born to Cus (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.10 2
14 13 Quality Plus (PA) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 3.00 3
SCR – Valentine Gift (WA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $9.80 $5.20 $3.60
13 – $7.80 $5.00
14 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (12-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $713
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

June 21, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 Gifted Student                     6/1
#12 I Want My Money               9/2
#13 Born to Cus                       10/1
#14 Quality Plus                       7/2

John Sadler, who trains #5 Gifted Student, has a very good record when bringing older maiden claimers back from long layoffs, especially when they are dropping in class. Gifted Student showed good speed in his debut on Oct. 13, as he was bet to 5/1 and had the lead after a half a mile versus eight others.

Jockey Tyler Baze, a 14 percent rider, is aboard. Baze, however, won with 23 percent of his last 103 mounts for Sadler, so he turns into Garrett Gomez when riding Sadler’s horses. Gifted Student is 6-to-1 on the morning line, but judging from Sadler’s other layoff winners I expect him to be bet to less than 4-to-1.

Breaking from the far outside, #14 Quality Plus is another second-time starter who had the lead for a half mile in his debut. This horse has many things to like: It has good early speed, competent connections and ran a decent Beyer Speed Figure last time. But it seems like the type of horse that will be bet below 3-to-1, which will likely cause me to try to beat it.

Jeff Mullins is one of those Southern California trainers that wins whenever he wants to and can never be totally eliminated. His runner #12 I Want My Money has been working out well and is worth a bet at the right price. The same goes for #13 Born to Cus, who Doug O’Neill bred, owns and trains. Born to Cus adds blinkers and makes a positive jockey switch from Alonso Quinonez to Joel Rosario. With older maiden claimers like these, O’Neill seems to run them into form rather than trying to win early, and Born to Cus seems to be going in the right direction.

I will bet $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 only. Also, I will take $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus at 3/1 or more, but if he is bet below that then I’ll put the $200 on #12 I Want My Money instead, also at 3/1 or better.

Finally, if #13 Born to Cus goes off at 6/1 or better, then I’ll put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

June 1, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O’Neill continued his 2009 success with 2-year-old first-time starters when #5 Necessary Evil established a new cushion track record in winning by 3-3/4 lengths.

O’Neill used jockey Joel Rosario in this race, which had eight first time starters of the nine runners. Necessary Evil, who was bought for $160,000, showed three quick workouts and I was prepared to wager on her at 7-to-2 or better, but she ended up as the 9-to-5 favorite.

Necessary Evil broke with the pack, then Rosario sent her to the lead. She was pursued down the backstretch and on the turn by #8 Laura’s Pleasure, ridden by Michael Baze. But that one ran out of gas at the quarter pole and nobody threathened thereafter.

I bet $200 on second-time starter #9 Win for M’lou at 9/2 and $150 on #1 Ghost Shadow at 12/1.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ghost Shadow (KY) Baze T Talbot S 12.50 6
2 2 Gambling Pokerface (CA) Arambula P Coffee C 63.50 8
3 3 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 5.70 4
4 4 Rote (KY) Smith M Miller P 6.80 7
5 5 Necessary Evil (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.90 1
6 6 Mi Sueno (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 3.00 2
7 7 Lena Miss (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 49.50 9
8 8 Laura’s Pleasure (KY) Baze M Ayers R 20.30 5
9 9 Win for M’lou (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherlock G 4.90 3
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
6 – $4.40 $3.00
9 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.70 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 4 — 2:30 pm post time

May 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Ghost Shadow                5/1
#2 Gambling Pokerface       20/1
#3 Magic Yodeler               5/1
#4 Rote                           5/1
#5 Necessary Evil              7/2
#6 Mi Sueno                     4/1
#7 Lena Miss                    20/1
#8 Laura’s Pleasure          8/1
#9 Win for M’lou                9/2

I couldn’t throw anybody out right now.

Why?

Because I think any of the horses can win this race, which has eight first-timers going out of the nine starters. The most likely winner of the debuters is #5 Necessary Evil, who is trained by Doug O’Neill. This filly has three swift workouts showing in her past performances and O’Neill won with four of his last 12 with this type of 2 year old.

The Hollywood Park morning line maker rated six of the eight first timers at odds of between 7-to-2 and 8-to-1. But I think two or three of these fillies will be greater than 10-to-1 and those are the ones that I will wager on.

The one experienced runner is #9 Win for M’lou. She showed some decent speed in her debut.

My bets will be $200 to win on #5 Necessary Evil at 7/2 or more; and $150 to win on any of these horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #1 Ghost Shadow, #2 Gambling Pokerface, #3 Magic Yodeler, #4 Rote, #6 Mi Sueno, #7 Lena Miss and #8 Laura’s Pleasure.

If two or fewer of the horses above fall into the betting zone, then I will also bet $200 on #9 Win for M’lou at 5/2 to 7/1 only. But if I’m able to bet three or more of the firsters, then I won’t wager on Win for M’lou at all.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s, Uncategorized. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 5 — 3 pm post time

May 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                Morning line

#1 Icy Temper                      15/1
#3 Ranger Heartley                20/1
#5 Siete Machos                   15/1
#6 Summers at Del Mar          20/1
#8 Get My Fix                       6/1
#9 Really Uptown                  9/2
#10 The Skinny Man              5/1
#11 Saarface                       20/1

Seven first-time starters go in this race and I listed them all above as possible overlays, but realistically only a few of them will go off at a price fit for betting.

The best of the debuters looks like #10 The Skinny Man. J Paul Reddam, the owner, loves to use Corey Nakatani and his horses have had success in their first lifetime races. Furthermore, trainer Doug O’Neill has good numbers with this type of horse.

Of the experienced horses, I like #9 Really Uptown. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 76 and Really Uptown ran a 74 in his last start while breaking from the unfavorable #6 post at 4-1/2 furlongs. The morning-line maker has #4 Roman Counsel and #2 Sterling Outlook at lower prices than Really Uptown, who not only has better Beyers but looks to be much quicker from the gate. If Really Uptown is a higher price than these two, I will bet him with both hands.

At the window, I will put $150 to win on any of these debuters at 10/1 to 19/1 only:  #1 Icey Temper, #3 Ranger Heartley, #5 Siete Machos, #6 Summers At Delmar, #8 Get My Fix and #11 Saarface. Also, I want $300 to win on #10 The Skinny Man at 7/2 or better and $400 to win on #9 Really Uptown at 3/1 or more.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — won $1,300

January 18, 2009 — maidenking

imgres27Jockey Corey Nakatani sprang to the lead with #2 Hudler, who held a clear advantage on the backstretch.

On the turn, Hudler was running easily with Nakatani hardly moving his hands, however behind him Martin Garcia was asking #6 Dona Mary for everything she had. In third place, jockey Alex Solis had the 7-to-5 favorite #5 High Note also under an all-out race ride. 

But nobody was catching Hudler, who won without breaking a sweat.

I bet $200 on this first-time starter, as her 7-to-1 odds fell into my range of 5-to-1 and above. I also put $200 on second-timer #6 Dona Mary, and was considering winning trainer Doug O’Neill’s other entry #7 Runway Starlet. But she was 2-to-1, which I thought was too poor of a wagering price.

I also liked first timer #5 High Note, but was interested at 10-to-1 and higher, not her post time odds of 7-to-5.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY tTRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Charming Meadow (CA) Baze T Saavedra A 22.20 6
2 2 Hudler (CA) Nakatani C O’Neill D 7.50 1
3 3 Not Unusual (CA) Rosario J Sherman A 13.30 8
4 4 Warren’s Royal Mom (CA) Gomez G Gutierrez J 14.70 5
5 5 High Note (CA) Solis A Hendricks D 1.40 3
6 6 Dona Mary (CA) Garcia M Gonzalez S 5.30 4
7 7 Runway Starlet (CA) Bejarano R O’Neill D 2.20 2
8 8 Laura Beasley (CA) Delgadillo A McFarlane D 51.80 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $17.00 $6.00 $3.40
7 – $3.60 $2.40
5 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $25.20 (2-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.80 (7-4-2)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $2392.50 (5-7-4-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $262.30 (2-7-5-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $67.50 (2-7-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $93.20 (4-2)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 p.m. post time

January 18, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Hudler                                          5/1
#5 High Note                                     2/1
#6 Dona Mary                                   5/1
#7 Runway Starlet                             3/1

Lots of inexperienced runners in this field of eight fillies.

Trainer Doug O’Neill starts both first timer #2 Hudler and #7 Runway Starlet, a filly who has run three credible races.

Hudler’s owner, J. Paul Reddam, likes to use jockey Cory Nakatani and Reddam has had a fair amount of success with debuters. 

Another first timer with a strong shot is #5 High Note, trained by Dan Hendricks, but her morning line is a dismal 2-to-1. Finally, #6 Dona Marie fits the profile of a second timer with the potential to improve enough to win this one.

I will bet $200 to win on #2 Hudler at 5/1 and up; $200 on High Note in the unlikely event she’s 10/1 to 19/1: $200 on #6 Dona Mary at 3/1 and higher; and $200 on #7 Runway Starlet at 7/2 or better.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »
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