Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1
2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5
3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4
4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6
5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3
6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7
7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20
7 $2.60 $2.60
5 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta

Saturday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds, F

 

 Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Magic Yodeler                          2/1
#5 Whispering Hush                     10/1

As much as I like #1 Magic Yodeler and #5 Whispering Hush, at the right odds of course,  this race is just as much about playing against what I expect to be overbet first and second time starters.

Breaking on the outside, #7 High Five Gal has been burning up the track in the morning and that equates to heavy betting by the public in the afternoon. High Five Gal is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and trainer Doug O’Neill is OK with a debuter like this, but overall these horses are some of the worst bets in racing. In fact, 2-year-old msw first time starters bet below 7-to-2 win only 20 percent of the time and bettors get back just 66 cents for every $1 bet. 

The morning line maker pegged both #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie at 4-to-1, but neither of them showed enough in their first races for me to wager on them today.

But first-time starter #5 Whispering Hush could win at a decent price.  She’s been working out slowly, which should help keep the betting dollars off of her.

Also, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 81 and #1 Magic Yodeler ran a 75 in last May. She has good speed and if the public pounds #7 High Five Gal we might get 5-to-2 on her.

At the window, I will bet $150 to win on #5 Whispering Hush at 10/1 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #1 Magic Yodeler at 5/2 and up.

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