Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Magic Yodeler 2/1
#5 Whispering Hush 10/1
As much as I like #1 Magic Yodeler and #5 Whispering Hush, at the right odds of course, this race is just as much about playing against what I expect to be overbet first and second time starters.
Breaking on the outside, #7 High Five Gal has been burning up the track in the morning and that equates to heavy betting by the public in the afternoon. High Five Gal is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and trainer Doug O’Neill is OK with a debuter like this, but overall these horses are some of the worst bets in racing. In fact, 2-year-old msw first time starters bet below 7-to-2 win only 20 percent of the time and bettors get back just 66 cents for every $1 bet.
The morning line maker pegged both #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie at 4-to-1, but neither of them showed enough in their first races for me to wager on them today.
But first-time starter #5 Whispering Hush could win at a decent price. She’s been working out slowly, which should help keep the betting dollars off of her.
Also, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 81 and #1 Magic Yodeler ran a 75 in last May. She has good speed and if the public pounds #7 High Five Gal we might get 5-to-2 on her.
At the window, I will bet $150 to win on #5 Whispering Hush at 10/1 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #1 Magic Yodeler at 5/2 and up.