Wednesday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 2 yo fillies 

Possible overlays                             Morning line 

#2 Excellent Point                                    6/1
#4 Della Mia                                            20/1
#10 Miss Apricot                                      20/1 

Clifford Sise, who is the trainer of #2 Excellent Point, does well with first time starters in this class. This filly has all slow workouts, but this trainer typically trains his debuters slowly in the morning then runs them fast in the afternoon. 

Sise, who also owns Excellent Point, chose jockey Jose Verenzuela even though this rider has ridden just 20 mounts at the meet, winning two times. Sise uses top riders at times, but he is just as likely to leg up low profile jocks like Danny Sorenson, Iggy Puglisi or Brice Blanc. In fact, Sise used 22 different riders on his 48 debuters I have listed for him in my database, so he spreads the work around throughout the jockey colony. 

A couple of more first timers that might have a shot if they show any betting action are #4 Della Mia and #10 Miss Apricot. 

At the window, I will bet $1,000 to win on #2 Excellent Point at 2/1 to 9/1, but just $300 at 10/1 to 19/1. 

If the odds on either #4 Della Mia or #10 Miss Apriocot fall between 10/1 and 19/1, then I will wager $100 on them.

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 9 — 6 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#1 Uncle Greg                                          3/1
#2 Royal Import                                     5/2
#3 My Last Tycoon                                7/2
 
The rail horse #1 Uncle Greg obviously has competitive Beyer Speed Figures and top-notch connections in  trainer Jack Carava and jockey Joel Rosario. But I don’t think his running style is suited for this 7 furlong distance. 
 
In Uncle Greg’s last two races, Rosario was asking the gelding for everything in the stretch, but got little response. I respect Carava when dropping new claims in class, and this one might look like a different horse today. But I will likely have my money on #2 Royal Import or #3 My Last Tycoon.
 
Royal Import, who is trained by Bob Hess, ran his first nine races on the grass before a second-place finish on the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 8. With his turf racing experience, Royal Import should be able to stay near the middle of the pack and come with a late closing kick.
 
Trainer Mel Stute likes to race his horses into shape and My Last Tycoon is coming off of two turf routes where he ran OK. My Last Tycoon could be dangerous if he can reproduce the late run he made on Aug. 1 when he came within three lengths of winning a maiden special weight turf route.
 
I will put $500 to win on #2 Royal Import at 5/2 or higher and $200 to win on #3 My Last Tycoon at 3/1 or more.
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Results: Lost $200 with a win bet on #3 My Last Tycoon at 5-1.
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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Uncle Greg (KY) Rosario J Carava J 2.20 1
2 2 Royal Import (GB) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 1.70 2
3 3 My Last Tycoon (NY) Quinonez A Stute M 5.10 3
4 4 Hamonic Motion (CA) Garcia M Young D 47.60 7
5 5 Warrens Temptation (CA) Velazquez J Van Berg J 26.60 5
6 6 Courtside Action (KY) John K DeLeon R 16.30 6
7 7 Quietly Waiting (KY) Valdez F Knapp S 16.40 9
8 8 Kopriti (CA) Gihua J Frousiakis J 17.80 8
9 9 Anga (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 7.20 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $6.40 $3.20 $2.60
2 $3.00 $2.20
3 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $2041.65 (3-6-6-1)
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.10 (1-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $655.00 (6-6-1)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $4172.50 (9 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $208.00 (1-2-3-9-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $69.00 (1-2-3-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $16.60 (1-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $67.00 (6-1)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $1269.80 (4-4/13/14-3-6-6-1)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $239706.40 (4-4/13/14-3-6-6-1)
$2.00 Quinella paid $6.20 (1-2)

Sunday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo Cal-Breds

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Bruno B                                          12/1
#3 Spot of Salt                                      8/1

Speed does well at this distance and the colt with the best demonstrated early foot is #2 Bruno B. Admittedly, this colt has a projected first fraction that is on the soft side compared to other races, but big odds will make up for the risk.

In his last race, Bruno B’s trainer Steve Knapp tried the $100,000 Graduation Stakes. Jockey Felipe Valdez had Bruno B just three lengths off the lead after a half mile, but Valdez must not have believed Bruno B could win because he did not encourage him much in the stretch. The morning line favorite in today’s race, #4 Woodman’s Luck — who is also Brad Free’s best bet in the Daily Racing Form — came on to finish in front of Bruno B by a slight 1-3/4 length margin. In my mind, considering how Valdez practically breezed Bruno B in the stretch, not much separates the ability of Woodman’s Luck from Bruno B.

In Bruno B’s July 25 debut he was shuffled at the start to be off slowly, then gained good ground while quickly moving four paths wide on the turn. Entering the stretch Bruno B was six wide yet closed to be beaten just over two lengths. See for yourself. In this video, Bruno B is horse #1.

The Beyer Speed Figures in this race seem weak compared to what other winners in this class have run in the past, which is why a horse like #3 Spot of Salt may hit the wire first. Owner La Canada Stables does well with debut horses and leading jockey Joel Rosario is also outstanding on 2-year-old MSW first-time starters.

I will bet $300 to win on #2 Bruno B at 9/2 or more. Also, I want $400 on #3 Spot of Salt at 7/2 to 9/1, but just $200 at 10/1 to 19/1.

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Results: Lost $500 by betting $300 to win on 14-1 shot #2 Bruno B and $200 on #3 Spot of Salt at 12-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Mi Marino (KY) John K DeLeon R 26.10 11
2 2 Bruno B (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 14.60 6
3 3 Spot of Salt (CA) Rosario J Carava J 12.20 7
4 4 Woodmans Luck (CA) Bejarano R Puype M 1.30 3
5 5 Thunder of Zion (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 25.60 10
6 6 Da Boomer (CA) Pedroza M Blincoe T 13.20 1
7 7 Shane Daniel (CA) Valenzuela P O’Neill D 4.60 2
8 8 Mr. Sierra (CA) Espinoza V Bonde J 9.30 5
9 9 Baby Bull (CA) Garcia M Saavedra A 44.70 9
10 10 Jailbird Jimmy (CA) Gihua J O’Neill D 8.40 4
11 11 What a Rush (CA) Berrio O Avila A 14.80 8
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $28.40 $13.40 $6.40
7 $5.40 $3.20
4 $2.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $61.80 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $455.90 (4-3-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1003.40 (6-7-4-10)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $204.60 (6-7-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $105.60 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $68.40 (6-7)

Saturday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#2 Carrie Rose                                         3/1
#3 Ride a Wave                                       6/1
#6 Rising Honour                                      9/2

Without a doubt, the top early speed horse in this race is #2 Carrie Rose. In her past two sprints, Carrie Rose was pressured on the lead against maiden special weight competition. But today, she should get to the front rather easily and therefore should have more moxie in the stretch.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 66, either of Carrie Rose’s sprint finishes would have beaten many a $25k maiden claiming field. If this race were shorter, she would be a better bet, but speed is usually overvalued at 6-1/2 and 7 furlongs where pressers and closers do well.

Two promising closers in here are also returning from long layoffs. Trained by Eoin Harty, #6 Rising Honour is dropping from maiden special weight where she had been most recently routing on the turf. The move from turf route to maiden claiming sprint after a long layoff is a profitable one. And Rising Honour has the talent to win today, as all of her Beyer numbers either meet or exceed the median 66 BSF for this class.

Although #3 Ride a Wave is making her seventh lifetime start, this is her first in Southern California after campaigning in Florida throughout 2009. Her new trainer Kathy Walsh has a good record with newly-acquired horses and Ride a Wave ran decently in December before being put away.

As far as the odds go, if #6 Rising Honour is bet to 2-1 to 3-1 that would be a great sign that race track insiders think she is training well. If her price drifts to 7-2 or higher, then I will discount her chances.

Ride a Wave doesn’t look as good as Rising Honour on paper, but Kathy Walsh produces top results and I like this filly from 2-1 to 9-1.

I’ve been watching Mike Mitchell’s runners over the years, and he has an outstanding record in maiden claiming races like this one when his horses are bet below 3-1. The morning line maker believes Carrie Rose will be 3-1, but I think she’ll be more like 8-5 or 9-5.  

If #6 Rising Honour is 2-1 to 3-1 then I will be $500 on her.

If #2 Carrie Rose is 5-2 or less and Rising Honour is 7-2 or more, then I will bet $200 exactas 2 with 3,6.

Finally, at 4-1 to 9-1, I will bet $200 on #3 Ride a Wave.

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Results: Lost $400 by betting two $200 exactas keying #2 Carrie Rose at 6-5 to #3 Ride A Wave at 15-1 and #6 Rising Honour at 4-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Nosegay (CA) Pedroza M Barba A 28.70 8
2 2 Carrie Rose (CA) Smith M Mitchell M 1.20 3
3 3 Ride a Wave (KY) Flores D Walsh K 15.50 6
4 4 Junes Blue Moon (OR) Gihua J Martinez S 10.80 9
5 5 Storm’n Marisa (KY) Bisono A Chew M 39.60 4
6 6 Rising Honour (KY) Valenzuela P Harty E 4.00 1
7 7 Long Legged Lovely (CA) Bejarano R Jones M 10.30 5
9 8 Gavita (NM) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 60.60 11
10 9 Real Obvious (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 10.80 2
11 10 Love Song Mellody (KY) Cedeno A Martinez R 70.80 12
12 11 Atta’ Girl (CA) Valdez F Polanco M 18.00 7
13 12 Lady Adelle (KY) Velazquez J Sadler J 12.10 10
SCR Touch a Dream (CA)    
SCR Le Defi (CA) Quinonez A Lloyd J
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $10.00 $5.80 $3.60
10 $10.40 $5.60
2 $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $143.65 (3-3-4/10-6)
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (6-10)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $33.20 (3-4-6)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $1005.40 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16190.40 (6-10-2-5-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1893.10 (6-10-2-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $137.20 (6-10-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $26.80 (4-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $4411.20 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $78.60 (3-2/5-3-3-4/10-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $71.80 (6-10)

Friday, Del Mar Race 6 — 6 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Night Justice                                    6/1
#5 Harlan’s Tune                                   6/1
#6 Salah Salah                                      9/2
#9 Syllabus                                           4/1

The likely favorite #7 Looking for Candy has been laid off since November 2009. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, this colt followed a 69 Beyer Speed Figure with a 71 in his only two races, which were both against maiden special weight foes.

If Looking for Candy was healthy then his development from a 2-year-old to a 3-year-old would probably mean that he could run an 80 speed figure. And that number would make him competitive in $40,000 and higher maiden claiming races where the median Beyer Speed Figure is 81.

So, I am going to take the view that Looking for Candy still has some problems and this horse’s low price means no value.

However, in #6 Salah Salah’s two races he’s chased legitimate speedballs and is now dropping in class. Speed is king at 5-1/2 furlongs and Salah Salah should have enough early gas to make him a contender at what looks to be a decent price.

Brian Koriner trains #5 Harlan’s Tune, a first-time gelding who last raced in March. Records show that Koriner does well getting his older maiden sprinters to run well after being away from the races for a substantial amount of time. In August 2009, Harlan’s Tune led 9 rivals for a half mile before tiring while sprinting in an $85,000 claimer. Harlan’s Tune projects to have early speed equal to Salah Salah, so he also must be considered. 

Breaking just inside of Harlan’s Tune will be #4 Night Justice, who was bet to 9-2 during his August 1 debut. In that race, Night Justice was squeezed at the start then was boxed in until the top of the lane. Jockey Pat Valenzuela eased him in the stretch, but this gelding had a strong 5-furlong workout on Aug. 14 and trainer Peter Miller frequently wins with second timers.

Finally, trainer Clifford Sise has an excellent record with maiden claimers in their first lifetime starts. Sise, who sends out #9 Syllabus today, has a record of success with this move with both the owner, Martin Wygod, and jockey, Joel Rosario.

At odds of 3-1 or more, I will bet $500 on both #9 Syllabus and #6 Salah Salah.

If the odds on either Syllabus or Salah Salah are too low, then I will not bet that horse and instead substitute $300 to win on #5 Harlan’s Tune at 3-1 or more.

********************************************************************

Results: Lost $1,000 by putting $500 each on #6 Salah Salah at 7-1 and #9 Syllabus at 4-1.

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1 1 Single Shot (CA) Valdez F Bonde J 6.90 2
3 2 El Navigante (CA) Garcia M Soto A 58.20 9
4 3 Night Justice (CA) Valenzuela P Miller P 10.90 6
5 4 Harlan’s Tune (KY) Pedroza M Koriner B 15.60 4
6 5 Salah Salah (CA) Flores D Solis W 7.30 5
7 6 Looking for Candy (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 1.00 1
8 7 Minister Machine (CA) Medellin A Saavedra A 52.30 8
9 8 Syllabus (CA) Rosario J Sise, Jr. C 4.10 3
10 9 Sea Viper (CA) Gihua J Periban J 11.00 7
SCR Hostile Waters (CA) Velazquez J Waterman S
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $4.00 $3.00 $2.40
1 $5.80 $3.80
9 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $10.30 (7-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $279.30 (6-9-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $249.30 (7-1-9-5)

Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claming $40K, Cal-bred 2-yo F, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#2 She’sawontontomato                 9/2
#4 Yellow Slicker                                7/2
#7 Lola’s Lollipop                                 8/1
#12 Love At the Bay                          6/1

I like quite a few things about first-time starter #4 Yellow Slicker. This filly’s sire, Bertrando, has won with 9 of 36 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuting So. Cal. progeny when their odds were less than 20-1. A $1 wager on all would have yielded a $2.06 return.

Yellow Slicker’s trainer is also top-notch with young horses running for the first time. John Sadler won with 11 of 38 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuters when odds were between 2-1 and 9-1 for a $1.69 return on $1. Yellow Slicker’s slow workouts don’t bother me either because seven of Sadler’s maiden claiming debuters have had slow drills and three of them won regardless. Even owner Martin Wygod and jockey Joel Rosario have good records in this situation. 

But there is more to like in this race than just Yellow Slicker.

Bertrando is also the sire of #7 Lola’s Lollipop, who worked out fast at Santa Anita earlier this summer before coming to Del Mar. Trainer Blake Heap has done well with the few So. Cal. first-time starters that he’s run in recent years – but he is no John Sadler.

Patrick Valenzuela will ride #10 Alevei for Art Sherman. But this one has been working out at Pleasanton and I prefer horses that are stationed at Del Mar.

In the far outside post, #12 Love At the Bay was bet to 8-1 in her July 17 debut, but showed little. She worked out fast over the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 6, is adding blinkers, dropping in class and upgrading riders. This is a horse that can surprise.

Finally, early speed is dominant in these short sprints so #2 She’sawontontomato has to be respected. This Lewis Cenicola-trainee doesn’t have the greatest early gas I’ve ever seen, but she is only a step or two behind recent wire-to-wire winner Faisca.

Can leading jockey Joel Rosario get the job done on FTS #4 Yellow Slicker?

At odds of 5-2 to 9-1, I’ll put $300 to win on #4 Yellow Slicker and at 7-2 to 19-1, I’ll put $200 to win on #12 Love At the Bay. If Yellow Slicker is 2-1 or less, I’ll move the $300 wager win wager from her to #2 She’sawontontomato at 3-1 or higher.

Also, I want $50 exactas 2 with 4,7,12; 4 with 7,12; and 12 with 4,7. And I’ll take $35 exactas 7 with 4,12.

Although She’sawontontomato has a good chance of winning, her chances for finishing second are slimmer. So I will play her for second in the exacta at a reduced wager: $25 exactas — 4,7,12 with 2.

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Results: In the stretch it looked like #12 Love at the Bay was the winner, but she took a bad step and broke down. I bet $300 on eventual race winner #4 Yellow Slicker and made a profit of $705 after subtracting out my exotic wagers that did not connect.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Elegant Strides (CA) John K Locke T 85.10 9
2 2 She’sawontontomato (CA) Pedroza M Cenicola L 3.70 3
4 3 Yellow Slicker (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 4.00 1
5 4 Warren’s Lover (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 4.80 2
6 5 Good Acktress (CA) Medina L Harrington M 22.30 4
7 6 Lola’s Lollipop (CA) Verenzuela J Heap B 19.40 7
8 7 One More Palo (CA) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 64.30 8
9 8 Freewayracer (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 63.40 6
10 9 Alevei (CA) Valenzuela P Sherman A 6.10 5
11 10 Cosafina Carina (CA) Valdez F Moger, Jr. E 28.10 10
12 11 Love At the Bay (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 2.40 11
SCR Secret Althea (CA)    
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $10.00 $5.20 $3.80
5 $5.20 $3.40
2 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (4-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $122.40 (3-10-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $380.70 (4-5-2-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $45.30 (4-5-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $79.20 (10-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $18.80 (4-5)

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#4 Swiss Tart                          7/2
#5 Welcome Home Ryan            15/1
#6 Purgestein                          3/1
#7 Ultimate Question                 15/1

Although early speed at 6 furlongs is not as dominant as at 5 or 5-1/2 furlongs, it still frequently leads to the winner’s circle.

In here, #4 Swiss Tart has the quickest first quarter mile. If he repeats his race at Hollywood Park against River’s Chapel on May 23, then Swiss Tart should have an easy lead after a half mile. In his four starts against maiden special weight runners, Swiss Tart was outclassed, but the 60 Beyer Speed Figure he ran in the May 23 race shows he can win at this $40,000 claiming level.

One question with this colt, however, is whether he likes the Del Mar surface. Swiss Tart did not run his best as the beaten favorite versus $40,000 claimers on July 28 and his two workouts at Del Mar were slow ones.

Jockey Martin Garcia jumps off #5 Welcome Home Ryan to ride #6 Purgestein

Two second-time starters in here may greatly improve. Jockey Martin Garcia jumps from #5 Welcome Home Ryan to ride #6 Purgestein for trainer Jeff Bonde. On July 24, Purgestein was stuck in among a bunched-up field of horses on the backstretch and took a 4-wide path on the turn.

When Christian Santiago Reyes asked him to run in the stretch, Purgestein came up empty. The backstretch struggle may have broke Purgestein’s spirit and he may run better in his second start.

Purgestein’s two quick Del Mar drills suggest that the Polytrack will not hinder him.

Welcome Home Ryan was erratic throughout in his debut on July 22, but this longshot is dropping in class and adding blinkers for his second start. In the past, that combination has created some dramatic turnarounds.

Finally, #7 Ultimate Question is trained by the cagey Art Sherman. Running just a handful of 2-year-old high-priced claimers in their debuts, Sherman popped with a 16-1 shot in November 2006 and at odds of 57-1 in September 2007.

Sherman uses low-profile riders and today he is employing Felipe Valdez.

At the windows, I will put $400 to win on #4 Swiss Tart at 3-1 to 9-2 and I’ll increase my wager to $600 at 5-1 and up. If the odds on Swiss Tart are 5-2 or lower, then I’ll will instead put $350 to win on #6 Purgestein at 3-1 or better.

Also, at 5-1 to 19-1, I’ll put $150 to win on #5 Welcome Home Ryan and $200 to win on #7 Ultimate Question at 10-1 to 19-1 only.

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Results: With two minutes to post, Swiss Tart was 4-1, but the late money knocked him to 5-2, which also knocked me out of action. None of the prices on my other three wagering scenarios fell into their odds windows either. So I had no action.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Alex T (KY) Nakatani C Bacorn H 17.80 5
2 2 Nitro Power (CA) Gihua J Martinez S 20.20 6
3 3 Liquid Asset (KY) Espinoza V Moger, Jr. E 3.80 3
4 4 Swiss Tart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 2.60 1
5 5 Welcome Home Ryan (KY) Flores D Velasquez D 25.40 9
6 6 Purgestein (KY) Garcia M Bonde J 2.30 11
7 7 Ultimate Question (KY) Valdez F Sherman A 42.50 7
9 8 Tiger Bay (CO) Pedroza M Troeger R 18.40 4
10 9 Regroup (KY) Atkinson P Hendricks D 22.20 8
11 10 Trouble Rules (CA) Medellin A Fanning J 20.00 2
13 11 Clearance Clarence (KY) Smith M Papaprodromou G 8.10 10
SCR E Z Led (PA)    
SCR Jakesam (KY)    
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $7.20 $4.60 $3.40
11 $13.40 $6.40
3 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $101.80 (7-8-3/6-4)
$1.00 Exacta
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