Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32K, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds 

Possible overlays                         Morning line 

#1 Certainly Certain                            3/1
#3 Elessar                                         6/1
#6 Gibson Home Run                           7/2
#7 Chiloquin                                      6/1
#9 B.J.’s Hope                                    6/1

Of the horses with racing experience, the one with the quickest first quarter-mile is the gelding on the rail, #1 Certainly Certain. 

In his last race, Certainly Certain broke from post 9 and had to be used a bit to stay close to the leaders. Entering the turn, Certainly Certain was 4-wide, but jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was able to negotiate his way toward the rail while on the bend. In the stretch, Certainly Certain gamely challenged the ultimate race winner JJ Minister while running a 70 Beyer Speed Figure, which would win most of the races at this level. 

However, this difficult race was on July 21, which was just two weeks ago, therefore Certainly Certain may bounce. 

A see quite a few trainer angles in this race. Kathy Walsh, who saddles #3 Elessar, has a great record with young horses making their second lifetime starts. 

First time starters have not been a good bet at this level since the beginning of 2009. But trainer Peter Miller seems to specialize with young maiden claimers making their first lifetime starts. Between January 2009 and May 2010, Miller won with 5 of 12 maiden claiming debuters that had post time odds between 7/2 and 19/1. In here, Miller saddles first-timer runner #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Another who has a great record with young maiden claimers is Adam Kitchingman, who trains #2 Mi Alma. Although Mi Alma will be ridden by leading jockey Joel Rosario, this gelding is a late foal so I am not interested. 

Finally, trainers that also own a piece of the horse do well in these types of races.  Trainer Scott Hansen is partners on #7 Chiloquin, who is by Tribal Rule. This sire’s 2 year-old and 3-year-old progeny have won 6 of 30 races at first asking recently in Southern California. Hansen doesn’t start many, but he has worked as an assistant to top trainers like Bobby Frankel and Julio Canani. 

At odds of 5/2 or higher, I will wager $600 to win on #1 Certainly Certain. Also, at 4/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $300 to win on whichever horse is the longer price between #3 Elessar and #6 Gibson Home Run. 

Finally, if #7 Chiloquin is 7/1 to 12/1, I will put $100 to win on him.  

If Certainly Certain’s odds are below 5/2, then instead I will change my bets to $400 to win on both #3 Elessar at 7/2 to 9/1 and #6 Gibson Home Run at 7/2 to 19/1; and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 5/1 to 12/1.

********************************************************************

RESULTS: Lost $500 with a $300 win wager on #3 Elessar at 4-1 and $200 to win on #7 Chiloquin at 11-1.

*********************************************************************