Over the last few years, a good bet when looking for first-time starters in maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds has been to find top trainers running early foals with good workouts that are going off at decent prices.
In this race, four trainers are winning more than 20 percent of their races for the year: Bob Baffert, Carla Gaines, Jerry Hollendorfer and John Sadler. Their fillies scheduled to go to post in this race all have good workouts and were born in January, February and March.
The morning line maker has them all priced somewhere between 5/2 and 4/1. Of course, all I care about are the odds at post time and I will take whatever horses the public gives me.
I will bet $500 to win on the two highest-odds horses that are between 7/2 and 9/1 among #1 Blaze Along, #5 Lofty Ambition, #6 Dearly Concerned and #7 Candid Ride.
Maiden Claiming $25,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up
Possible overlaysMorning line
#2 Born to Waltz 15/1
#6 Royal Import 3/1
#8 Aeromon 5/2
This race is mainly between two horses: #6 Royal Import and #8 Aeromon.
Trained by Robert Hess, Royal Import is making his tenth career start and first on anything other than grass. Eight of Royal Import’s last 10 races were routes, but that shouldn’t put him at a disadvantage at this 7-furlong distance. This gelding has shown a good late kick, which will be needed to catch Aeromon.
Aeromon has the best demonstrated speed in this field. The question will be whether leading jockey Joel Rosario can slow down Aeromon enough during the second quarter mile so this gelding will have the energy to hold off Royal Import in the lane.
At 7 furlongs, speed isn’t as great an asset as it is in short sprints. That is why I would be reluctant to bet Aeromon if Royal Import is a longer price.
The only other horse I’m looking at in this race is #2 Born to Waltz, who is running in his second race back from a long layoff. The past performances on this Jerry Fanning-trainee are on the dismal side which should help the odds. In his first race, Born to Waltz was pulled up and walked off. In his second start, he broke dead last in an eleven-horse field and stayed there until closing good ground in the stretch to finish seventh. Horses of this type have shown to be profitable win-place bets at 10/1 to 19/1.
Therefore, at 5/2 and up, I will bet $700 on #6 Royal Import. But if Royal Import is 2/1 or below at post time, then I will wager $300 on #8 Aeromon at 3/1 or higher.
Also, at 10/1 to 19/1, I will put $50 on #2 Born to Waltz.
I can see Aeromon getting away loose on the lead with Royal Import closing to be second. So, I will bet a straight $20 trifecta 8 with 6 with 2, a $5 trifecta 8 with 2 with 6, and $5 trifectas 8 with 6 with all horses 10/1 to 30/1.
The above exotic bets are contingent on either Aeromon being 3/1 or more, or Royal Import being 5/2 or higher.