Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 2 — lost $400

 

Jockey Joe Talamo gets #5 Ribat up in time to dead heat with #3 Asno Del Caramelo Saturday

When I was preparing for this race, it looked as if value would be found betting against the Bob Baffert-trained first-time starter, #8 Benergy.

It’s not because Benergy couldn’t win. He could. But I chose against him because he was the 5/2 morning line favorite and he was likely to be bet too low to justify his chances of victory.

However, the veterinarian scratched Benergy in the morning, so it made this race a bit more difficult to play.

Trainer Mark Glatt had 2-year-old colt Asno Del Caramelo ready to run on Saturday

Anyway, just one of the three horses that I thought might run well, 6 Gahnzo Bob, had a bettable price. And jockey Corey Nakatani gunned him for the lead even though in his July 4 debut, Gahnzo Bob was in last place after a quarter mile.  

Going for the lead so early was a curious move by both Nakatani and by Patrick Valenzuela. P Val rode  #1 Joburg Star, who was another horse who led early in this race after not showing speed in the past.  Maybe they thought the pace would be soft and their horses would last. But 6 furlongs is not like 5 furlongs or even 5-1/2 furlongs where speed dominates. At 6 furlongs, the race plays much more fair to pressers and stretch runners.

When the race began, Joburg Star shot to the front with Gahnzo Bob on his flank as race caller Trevor Denman said “they could not be going any quicker.” Jockey Martin Pedroza, riding #3 Asno Del Caramelo, sat behind the leaders and cut the corner on the rail to surge to the front at the top of the lane as Denman announced “now that fast early pace taking its toll.”

Just then, #5 Ribat started making his run from far back. In deep stretch,  Ribat quickly came into the picture, but gained slowly on Asno Del Caramelo during the last sixteenth of a mile until both noses simultaneously hit the wire.

I ended up putting $100 to win on #2 Alert Rocket at 19/1 and $300 to win on #6 Gahnzo Bob.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Joburg Star (KY) Valenzuela P Miller P 3.50 5
2 2 Alert Rocket (KY) Espinoza V Gallagher P 19.30 6
3 3 Asno Del Caramelo (PA) Pedroza M Glatt M 1.60 1
4 4 Baby Tate (CA) Bejarano R Mullins J 2.90 7
5 5 Ribat (KY) Talamo J Periban J 8.40 1
6 6 Gahnzo Bob (KY) Nakatani C Pender M 8.90 4
7 7 Riveting Reason (KY) Quinonez A Cho M 11.30 3
SCR Benergy (KY) Garcia M Baffert B
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $7.20 $6.60 $3.80
3 $3.20 $3.40 $3.00
7 $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $14.00 (5-3)
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.50 (3-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $274.00 (3-5-7-6)
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Results, Thursday Del Mar Race 3 — lost $1,000

Jockey Martin Garcia eased #1 Lost Prophet to the lead then poured it on in the stretch.

Looking at this race beforehand, it was easy to tell that #1 Lost Prophet was a contender. She clearly had the best speed, trainer Mike Mitchell has an outstanding long-term record with horses he just claimed, and she worked a bullet on July 23.

Her only drawback was that 7-furlong races are not usually won by horses on the lead. They are mostly won by horses like #3 Indiara and #4 Kaysa Deeya that either press the pace or run midpack then come on strong in the stretch.

As the gates opened, jockey Martin Garcia restrained Lost Prophet a bit, although the filly’s natural speed got her to the lead anyway. On the backstretch, she was able to establish a clear one-length lead with minimal encouragement by Garcia.

In second place, #6 East Lake Shore was plugging away until midway on the turn when #4 Kaysa Deeya passed her rather easily. In the stretch, Lost Prophet widened her lead to win by 8-1/2 lengths, while Kaysa Deeya ran on strongly under jockey Patrick Valenzuela, but was no match.

At 3/1 on the morning line, I planned to wager $700 on Lost Prophet at odds of 5/2 to 4/1, but since she went off at 6/5 my betting plan changed. Instead, my $700 bet went to #4 Kaysa Deeya at 9/1 and I also put $300 to win on #6 East Lake Shore at 11/1.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lost Prophet (KY) Garcia M Mitchell M 1.20 1
2 2 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Nakatani C Fanning J 23.60 5
3 3 Indiara (KY) Bejarano R Harty E 1.80 4
4 4 Kaysa Deeya (KY) Espinoza V Sadler J 9.90 2
5 5 My Romance (KY) Smith M Headley B 6.60 7
6 6 East Lake Shore (FL) Rosario J Yakteen T 11.90 6
7 7 Lisa Lulu (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 18.80 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $3.60 $3.20
4 $7.00 $4.60
7 $5.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.40 (1-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $27.00 (2-6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $300.90 (1-4-7-3)

 

Thursday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming 32K, 3 yo’s and up, F, 7 furlongs 

Possible overlays                Morning line 

#1 Lost Prophet                           3/1
#4 Kaysa Deeya                           7/2
#6 East Lake Shore                       8/1 

According to Brad Free in the Daily Racing Form, Mike Mitchell is 5-for-8 first off the claim with maiden claimers over the last four Del Mar meets. In this race, Mitchell saddles #1 Lost Prophet, who he claimed from Howard Zucker for $25,000 on July 9. 

This maiden $32K race is hardly a step up for Lost Prophet, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is only one point higher at $32K than at the maiden $25K level.  Also, Lost Prophet looks like she’ll get a clear lead and she might enjoy the leisurely fractions in these 7-furlong races. 

However, only 15 percent of all 7-furlong maiden claiming races for older horses in the last few years have been won wire-to-wire. So Lost Prophet does not have the right running style for this distance. 

A horse who does have the right 7-furlong running style is #3 Indiara. This Eoin Harty-trained runner has been bet below 5/1 in each of her last six starts and the Beyer Speed Figures in six of her last 10 outings would win most races at this level. 

But I can’t see Indiara going off at 5/2 or greater, so I most likely won’t be betting on her. 

Second-time starter #6 East Lake Shore looks interesting. Trainer Tim Yakteen who is winning at 19 percent for the year is just 1-of-29 in the last few years with debuting maidens at less than 20/1. 

And having watched the replay of East Lake Shore’s first start, she looks to have been given a tune-up race. She has worked out well and was bet down to 6/1 in her debut. 

Also, Yakteen has a decent record second time out and top jockey Joel Rosario is at the controls. 

I see nothing wrong with #4 Kaysa Deeya, who should come with a closing kick with jockey Patrick Valenzuela up. Kaysa Deeya, trained by John Sadler, also ran a couple of recent Beyers that are close to the median winning speed figure. 

If #1 Lost Prophet is 5/2 to 4/1 then I will bet $700 to win on her. Also, I want $300 to win on #6 East Lake Shore at 4/1 to 12/1. If Lost Prophet doesn’t fall into my odds zone, then I will put the $700 on #Kaysa Deeya at odds of 5/2 or higher.

P Val back in So. Cal, while Baze is out until Oak Tree

Pictured signing autographs on Opening Day, jockey Tyler Baze will miss the rest of the Del Mar meet because of facial fractures suffered when thrown from a horse on July 24.

Jockey Patrick Valenzuela will resume riding in Southern California on Wednesday. He has a mount aboard Warrensmysterydice in Del Mar's 6th.

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