Sunday, Santa Anita Race 5 — post time 2:34 pm

January 28, 2012 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $20,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4-yo’s and up

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure: 70

Possible overlays                               Morning line

#1 Joburg Star                                       7/2
#3 Our Last Monte                                    3/1
#8 Brite Dreamer                                     8/1

Since Santa Anita opened on Dec. 26, I’ve been betting on nothing but 6-1/2 and 7-furlong maiden races on this blog. But that doesn’t mean I’ve been ignoring shorter sprints at the wagering window in real life.

In fact, I’ve hit quite a few nice-paying horses in the last month.

Last night I looked at the third race, which is a 6-1/2 furlong maiden claimer for 3-year-old females. Since I couldn’t find any solid plays in there, I decided to replace that race with this 5-1/2 furlong dash instead. One reason I like this race better is that two horses in this race are being saddled by trainers who I cashed many juicy tickets with over the recent years.

In my opinion, Darrell Vienna is one of the best horsemen on the grounds when it comes to winning maiden races with horses that the public overlooks. In this race, Vienna starts #3 Our Last Monte and he has given this gelding all slow workouts. A 4-year-old, Our Last Monte is running in his third race back off an 11-month layoff and can likely run better than the mid-60 Beyer Speed Figures he’s hung up in his last two runs.

Our Last Monte, who is making his seventh lifetime start, has demonstrated good early speed in most of his past races. The early foot will hurt this horse’s price, but he stands an excellent chance of winning today at a square mutuel.

Trainer Rafael Becerra won with only 5 of his 70 starters in 2011, so he doesn’t have much of a following. However, he has shown in the past that he’s excellent at winning races with maiden claiming sprinters that are coming off of long layoffs. Of his last 18 runners like this, Becerra won with seven of them, or 39 percent. Each $1 wagered on these animals returned $3.27.

On the rail, #1 Joburg Star ran well as a 2-year-old against maiden special weight company. But he hasn’t raced in one-and-a-half years. It would be no surprise to see Peter Miller getting his photo taken with Joburg Star in the winner’s circle, but I expect the presence of jockey Joel Rosario to drag this horse’s odds well below 7-to-2.

My betting strategy: I will put $300 to win on #3 Our Last Monte at 2/1 or more. Also, I want $250 on #8 Brite Dreamer at 3/1 to 14/1, but only $100 at 15/1 to 19/1.

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Thursday, Santa Anita Race 6 — post time 3:36 pm

January 26, 2012 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure: 75

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Midnight Con                             6/1
#2 Cruxus                                   20/1
#3 Towering                                 4/1
#7 Charlie Company                          6/1
#8 Visible Marq                             7/2
#9 Congrats Ski                             4/1

After a slow start to the Santa Anita meet, trainer Mike Mitchell is on fire right now. According to the Daily Racing Form, Mitchell has won with seven of his last 15 runners and he saddles second-time starter #3 Towering in this event.

Mitchell has an outstanding record with maiden claiming second-time starters and he is even better when those horses are running in 6-1/2 and 7 furlong races. Towering, who ran evenly in his Dec. 8 debut at Gulfstream Park, was previously trained by Joseph Catanese III. With the trainer shift, Towering should significantly improve based solely on the colt moving from an 8 percent horseman, Catanese, to Mitchell, who won with 32 percent of his starters in 2011.

Also, Mitchell will leg up Joel Rosario on Towering and this combination his won with 15 of their last 34 runners for a return of $2.49 for every $2 wager.

But, by no means is this a one-horse race. Hard-knockers like #1 Midnight Con and #7 Charlie Company could easily win by merely repeating some of their previous races.

Trainer William Morey is bringing Charlie Company down from Golden Gate where this gelding hit the board in his last three starts. In two of the three, Charlie Company earned a better Beyer Speed Figure than the median winning number of 75 when I adjusted for the ground lost on the turn. Charlie Company’s running style is to break in the middle of the pack, and although Santa Anita favors speed more than Golden Gate, this gelding has a great chance today.

Doug O’Neill claimed #1 Midnight Con away from trainer Jeff Mullins for $30,000 on Jan. 20. Midnight Con’s best race was on Dec. 4 when he came within three-quarters of a length of the winner while running against $50,000 maiden claimers. However, only three horses ran in that race, so he had a perfect trip.

On Jan. 20, Midnight Con had the lead in the stretch, but ran out of gas going a mile. He has an outside chance, but I like Charlie Company better.

Another horse who has run some interesting races is #9 Congrats Ski. In this gelding’s second lifetime start on Dec. 17, Congrats Ski broke in the air and bumped the horse inside of him to lose at least a length. He then lost more ground when circling the field wide on the turn, yet still he ran a 68 Beyer, which I upgraded to 75.

On Jan 7, in Congrats Ski’s first start over the Santa Anita dirt, he pressed the pace chasing Consulado who was motoring through fractions of 21-2/5th seconds for the quarter-mile and 44-seconds flat for the half. Consulado, who is likely a future stakes winner, cruised to a 7-1/4 length victory while Congrats Ski’s jockey saw the chase was futile and breezed him throughout the stretch.

Congrats Ski has early speed, is dropping into maiden claiming for the first time today, and trainer Kathy Walsh does well when employing jockey Rafael Bejarano. Congrats Ski looks solid.

I wouldn’t care too much for #8 Visible Marq, except that his trainer is Bob Baffert, so he must be considered. In his previous race on Jan. 5, Visible Marq ran second to wire-to-wire winner Sir Allison, his barnmate, to complete a Bob Baffert exacta.

In that race, Rosario broke Visible Marq in the middle of the pack, then came with a nice stretch run to earn a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. This colt, who sports several quick workouts, was purchased as a 2-year-old for $50,000 and seems to be placed in the right spot for his third start.

The main knocks on both Congrats Ski and Visible Marq, however, are that they are lightly raced. At 7-furlongs, their lack of experience might be difficult to overcome. It’s true that Towering is also making just his second start, but Mitchell seems to have his second-timers ready to tackle all obstacles.

Finally, #2 Cruxus and #6 Ron Burgandy are both new geldings with good angles in their favor. If their odds stay below 20-to-1, then I’m slightly interested.

My betting strategy: I will be satisfied if at post time I am sitting with win money on #3 Towering at 5/2 and #7 Charlie Company at 9/2. Considering their morning line odds are 4/1 and 6/1 respectively, that doesn’t seem too unreasonable.

Because Mitchell’s horses tend to run better when less than 7/2, I will put $400 to win on #3 Towering at 3/1 or less, but $200 to win at 7/2 or higher. At odds of 5/2 or more, I will put $300 to win on #7 Charlie Company.

If #9 Congrats Ski is 5/1 or more, then I want $50 exactas 9 with 3,7.

If #2 Cruxus and #6 Ron Burgandy are between 10/1 and 19/1, then I want $50 to win on Cruxus and $100 to win on Ron Burgandy. Also, I will take $10 exactas 3,7,9 with 2,6.

Finally, if Charlie Company is 9/2 or more, then I’ll bet $50 exacta 3 with 7; $30 exactas 8, 9 (any odds) with 7; $20 exactas 1 with 7; and $5 exactas 2,6 (if less than 20/1) with 7.

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Results, Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — lost $100

January 12, 2012 — maidenking

Jockey Joel Rosario dominated Saturday's first race with Scream Queen

Scanning the past performances for these 10 runners, I noticed that none of these fillies ever had the lead at any point from the quarter mile forward. So, with no natural speed horse in the lineup, I expected a cavalry charge from the gate as the jockeys tried to establish themselves as the front runner.

But Joel Rosario made a clear lead with #6 Scream Queen and the strategy paid off as they were never challenged on this speed-favoring surface. The race favorite, #1 Silver Threat, was pushed along in second place down the backstretch, but was no threat to Scream Queen who smoked the first quarter mile in 21 and 4/5ths seconds and the half mile in 44 and 3/5ths.

 This was a rematch for these two runners, who met on Dec. 18. In that meeting, Silver Threat broke slowly then went wide, but still beat Scream Queen by a head while finishing second. Scream Queen’s tactics that day were to lay back a few lengths from the leaders then make a stretch run. Scream Queen’s change of running style from stalker to front runner on Saturday seemed to make a world of difference, as her Beyer Speed Figure increased from 63 on Dec. 18 to 70 on Saturday.

In my write-up before the race, I identified Scream Queen and Silver Threat as the logical contenders.  Although I noted that no natural speed horses were entered in the race, I did not attempt to identify who would likely go to the front. I should have taken a shot at it, because when I ran the past performances through my pace software, it showed that a repeat of one of Scream Queen’s past races would give her an easy early lead. 

But I was fixated on the bad trip by Silver Threat even though I knew her odds would likely be pounded down to an unbettable price of less than 2-to-1. In the Daily Racing Form, Silver Threat was picked on top by all of the handicappers and Brad Free wrote in detail about the trouble she encountered last time.

So, everybody knew.

I wrote that Scream Queen could win if she improved by a couple of lengths while Silver Threat regressed. And the way the race shaped up, that seems to be what happened. 

But I wanted 7-to-2 on Scream Queen for my $200 bet, yet she went off at only 2-to-1. My potential $400 wager on Silver Threat never materialized either because her post time odds were an ugly 7-to-5.

Anyway, I lost $100 on the race due to a flier I took on #10 Wild Date, who ran well four starts back, however has performed poorly in her last three — now make it four — starts.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing .com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Silver Threat (KY) Talamo J Miller P 1.40 3
2 2 Cal Bayers (KY) Gomez G Hess, Jr. R 8.70 10
3 3 Ansede (KY) Gutierrez M Taylor T 10.00 2
5 4 Candy and Nuts (KY) Krigger K Pederson D 15.40 4
6 5 Scream Queen (KY) Rosario J Sherman A 2.40 1
7 6 Call Me Tough (CA) Flores E Collins D 69.40 8
8 7 Causeway Express (KY) Quinonez A McAnally R 15.50 7
9 8 Secret Genius (CA) Santiago Reyes C Knapp S 37.60 5
10 9 Wild Date (FL) Bejarano R Harty E 9.00 6
11 10 Four Forty Second (ON) Stra K Bernstein D 24.50 9
SCR – Janie Girl (CA)     – –
SCR – Bull Rush (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $6.80 $4.00 $2.60
3 – $8.20 $4.40
1 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $26.50 (6-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $303.90 (6-3-1-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $61.70 (6-3-1)
Fractional Times
21.77, 44.55, 1:09.58, 1:16.24
 
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

August 22, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo Cal-Breds

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Bruno B                                          12/1
#3 Spot of Salt                                      8/1

Speed does well at this distance and the colt with the best demonstrated early foot is #2 Bruno B. Admittedly, this colt has a projected first fraction that is on the soft side compared to other races, but big odds will make up for the risk.

In his last race, Bruno B’s trainer Steve Knapp tried the $100,000 Graduation Stakes. Jockey Felipe Valdez had Bruno B just three lengths off the lead after a half mile, but Valdez must not have believed Bruno B could win because he did not encourage him much in the stretch. The morning line favorite in today’s race, #4 Woodman’s Luck — who is also Brad Free’s best bet in the Daily Racing Form — came on to finish in front of Bruno B by a slight 1-3/4 length margin. In my mind, considering how Valdez practically breezed Bruno B in the stretch, not much separates the ability of Woodman’s Luck from Bruno B.

In Bruno B’s July 25 debut he was shuffled at the start to be off slowly, then gained good ground while quickly moving four paths wide on the turn. Entering the stretch Bruno B was six wide yet closed to be beaten just over two lengths. See for yourself. In this video, Bruno B is horse #1.

The Beyer Speed Figures in this race seem weak compared to what other winners in this class have run in the past, which is why a horse like #3 Spot of Salt may hit the wire first. Owner La Canada Stables does well with debut horses and leading jockey Joel Rosario is also outstanding on 2-year-old MSW first-time starters.

I will bet $300 to win on #2 Bruno B at 9/2 or more. Also, I want $400 on #3 Spot of Salt at 7/2 to 9/1, but just $200 at 10/1 to 19/1.

*******************************************************************

Results: Lost $500 by betting $300 to win on 14-1 shot #2 Bruno B and $200 on #3 Spot of Salt at 12-1.

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PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Mi Marino (KY) John K DeLeon R 26.10 11
2 2 Bruno B (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 14.60 6
3 3 Spot of Salt (CA) Rosario J Carava J 12.20 7
4 4 Woodmans Luck (CA) Bejarano R Puype M 1.30 3
5 5 Thunder of Zion (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 25.60 10
6 6 Da Boomer (CA) Pedroza M Blincoe T 13.20 1
7 7 Shane Daniel (CA) Valenzuela P O’Neill D 4.60 2
8 8 Mr. Sierra (CA) Espinoza V Bonde J 9.30 5
9 9 Baby Bull (CA) Garcia M Saavedra A 44.70 9
10 10 Jailbird Jimmy (CA) Gihua J O’Neill D 8.40 4
11 11 What a Rush (CA) Berrio O Avila A 14.80 8
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $28.40 $13.40 $6.40
7 – $5.40 $3.20
4 – – $2.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $61.80 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $455.90 (4-3-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1003.40 (6-7-4-10)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $204.60 (6-7-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $105.60 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $68.40 (6-7)
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Friday, Del Mar Race 4 — 5:30 pm post time

August 13, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claming $40K, Cal-bred 2-yo F, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#2 She’sawontontomato                 9/2
#4 Yellow Slicker                                7/2
#7 Lola’s Lollipop                                 8/1
#12 Love At the Bay                          6/1

I like quite a few things about first-time starter #4 Yellow Slicker. This filly’s sire, Bertrando, has won with 9 of 36 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuting So. Cal. progeny when their odds were less than 20-1. A $1 wager on all would have yielded a $2.06 return.

Yellow Slicker’s trainer is also top-notch with young horses running for the first time. John Sadler won with 11 of 38 of his recent 2-yo and 3-yo debuters when odds were between 2-1 and 9-1 for a $1.69 return on $1. Yellow Slicker’s slow workouts don’t bother me either because seven of Sadler’s maiden claiming debuters have had slow drills and three of them won regardless. Even owner Martin Wygod and jockey Joel Rosario have good records in this situation. 

But there is more to like in this race than just Yellow Slicker.

Bertrando is also the sire of #7 Lola’s Lollipop, who worked out fast at Santa Anita earlier this summer before coming to Del Mar. Trainer Blake Heap has done well with the few So. Cal. first-time starters that he’s run in recent years – but he is no John Sadler.

Patrick Valenzuela will ride #10 Alevei for Art Sherman. But this one has been working out at Pleasanton and I prefer horses that are stationed at Del Mar.

In the far outside post, #12 Love At the Bay was bet to 8-1 in her July 17 debut, but showed little. She worked out fast over the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 6, is adding blinkers, dropping in class and upgrading riders. This is a horse that can surprise.

Finally, early speed is dominant in these short sprints so #2 She’sawontontomato has to be respected. This Lewis Cenicola-trainee doesn’t have the greatest early gas I’ve ever seen, but she is only a step or two behind recent wire-to-wire winner Faisca.

Can leading jockey Joel Rosario get the job done on FTS #4 Yellow Slicker?

At odds of 5-2 to 9-1, I’ll put $300 to win on #4 Yellow Slicker and at 7-2 to 19-1, I’ll put $200 to win on #12 Love At the Bay. If Yellow Slicker is 2-1 or less, I’ll move the $300 wager win wager from her to #2 She’sawontontomato at 3-1 or higher.

Also, I want $50 exactas 2 with 4,7,12; 4 with 7,12; and 12 with 4,7. And I’ll take $35 exactas 7 with 4,12.

Although She’sawontontomato has a good chance of winning, her chances for finishing second are slimmer. So I will play her for second in the exacta at a reduced wager: $25 exactas — 4,7,12 with 2.

*******************************************************************

Results: In the stretch it looked like #12 Love at the Bay was the winner, but she took a bad step and broke down. I bet $300 on eventual race winner #4 Yellow Slicker and made a profit of $705 after subtracting out my exotic wagers that did not connect.

********************************************************************

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Elegant Strides (CA) John K Locke T 85.10 9
2 2 She’sawontontomato (CA) Pedroza M Cenicola L 3.70 3
4 3 Yellow Slicker (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 4.00 1
5 4 Warren’s Lover (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 4.80 2
6 5 Good Acktress (CA) Medina L Harrington M 22.30 4
7 6 Lola’s Lollipop (CA) Verenzuela J Heap B 19.40 7
8 7 One More Palo (CA) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 64.30 8
9 8 Freewayracer (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 63.40 6
10 9 Alevei (CA) Valenzuela P Sherman A 6.10 5
11 10 Cosafina Carina (CA) Valdez F Moger, Jr. E 28.10 10
12 11 Love At the Bay (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 2.40 11
SCR – Secret Althea (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $10.00 $5.20 $3.80
5 – $5.20 $3.40
2 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (4-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $122.40 (3-10-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $380.70 (4-5-2-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $45.30 (4-5-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $79.20 (10-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $18.80 (4-5)

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Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 8, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $25,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up
 
Possible overlays                    Morning line
 
#2 Born to Waltz                          15/1
#6 Royal Import                            3/1
#8 Aeromon                                    5/2
 
This race is mainly between two horses: #6 Royal Import and #8 Aeromon.
 
Trained by Robert Hess, Royal Import is making his tenth career start and first on anything other than grass. Eight of Royal Import’s last 10 races were routes, but that shouldn’t put him at a disadvantage at this 7-furlong distance. This gelding has shown a good late kick, which will be needed to catch Aeromon.
 
Aeromon has the best demonstrated speed in this field. The question will be whether leading jockey Joel Rosario can slow down Aeromon enough during the second quarter mile so this gelding will have the energy to hold off Royal Import in the lane.
 
At 7 furlongs, speed isn’t as great an asset as it is in short sprints. That is why I would be reluctant to bet Aeromon if Royal Import is a longer price.
 
The only other horse I’m looking at in this race is #2 Born to Waltz, who is running in his second race back from a long layoff. The past performances on this Jerry Fanning-trainee are on the dismal side which should help the odds. In his first race, Born to Waltz was pulled up and walked off. In his second start, he broke dead last in an eleven-horse field and stayed there until closing good ground in the stretch to finish seventh. Horses of this type have shown to be profitable win-place bets at 10/1 to 19/1.
 
Therefore, at 5/2 and up, I will bet $700 on #6 Royal Import. But if Royal Import is 2/1 or below at post time, then I will wager $300 on #8 Aeromon at 3/1 or higher.
Also, at 10/1 to 19/1, I will put $50 on #2 Born to Waltz.
 
I can see Aeromon getting away loose on the lead with Royal Import closing to be second. So, I will bet a straight $20 trifecta 8 with 6 with 2, a $5 trifecta 8 with 2 with 6, and $5 trifectas 8 with 6 with all horses 10/1 to 30/1.
 
The above exotic bets are contingent on either Aeromon being 3/1 or more, or Royal Import being 5/2 or higher.
********************************************************************

Results: Lost $1,090. Had $700 to win on #6 Royal Import at 4-1, $50 on #2 Born to Waltz at 14-1, and $40 worth of trifectas keying #6 Royal Import.

********************************************************************  
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Cynical Wager (CA) Quinonez A Pearson M 20.90 8
2 2 Born to Waltz (KY) Flores D Fanning J 14.00 6
3 3 Swiss Emperor (CA) Garcia M Zucker H 6.20 9
4 4 Truco (CA) Velazquez J Mollica M 46.10 3
5 5 Sir Bolly (CA) Gonzalez A Mandella G 18.30 10
6 6 Royal Import (GB) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 4.10 2
7 7 Valley Cat (CA) Bejarano R Eurton P 2.30 1
8 8 Aeromon (KY) Rosario J Cerin V 2.10 4
9 9 Warrens Temptation (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 46.10 5
10 10 Oneinamillionyou (CA) Medina L Pender M 47.10 7
SCR – Who U Foolin (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $6.60 $3.20 $3.40
6 – $5.00 $4.00
4 – – $10.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.50 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $3214.00 (10-1-7)

 
 
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Results, Sunday Del Mar Race 3 – lost $1,000

August 3, 2010 — maidenking

Riding for trainer Marty Jones, jockey Joel Rosario took #3 Hugs to All wire-to-wire.

Well, everything in this race was pointing to #9 Breakmark. He was a second-time starter dropping in class after a long layoff.

This type of horse has been very good to me in the past. In fact, of the last 20 of these types that were less than 8/1, 14 were winners.

Also, the colt’s owner, Martin Wygod is scheduled to sell 110 of his horses at a special Barrett’s Equine Ltd. sale on Oct. 12. So, why would he care if Benchmark got claimed? 

Everything was a go. Except nobody told the horse.

Benchmark broke slowly from the far outside. He showed a little run on the backstretch, then he faded to last in the stretch as the 5/2 favorite.

But for Wygod, there was at least some good news. After the race, it was announced that Benchmark was claimed by owner-trainer Steve Knapp for $40,000.

Meanwhile, a horse can’t win the race if he never gets the lead. Knowing this, jockey Joel Rosario went right to the front with the gray #3 Hugs to All. Rosario slowed the pace down just enough to allow this Harris Farms front runner to have something left for the drive.

Hugs to All held off #5 Fortunate Appeal by a neck and paid $7.80.

I wagered $1,000 on #9 Benchmark.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 It’s Not Unusual (CA) Bejarano R O’Neill D 9.10 4
2 2 Melo Laser (CA) Espinoza V Herrick J 31.10 3
3 3 Hugs to All (CA) Rosario J Jones M 2.90 1
4 4 Salah Salah (CA) Flores D Solis W 6.10 5
5 5 Fortunate Appeal (CA) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 2
6 6 Sea Viper (CA) Santiago Reyes C Periban J 12.10 8
7 7 Romeo Royale (CA) Nakatani C Abrams B 32.10 6
8 8 Jump On Board (CA) Quinonez A Capestro P 51.30 7
9 9 Breakmark (CA) Valenzuela P Shirreffs J 2.50 9
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $7.80 $3.80 $2.80
5 – $3.60 $2.80
2 – – $6.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.50 (3-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $16.80 (3-3-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1081.70 (3-5-2-1)
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Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 8 — lost $290

August 3, 2010 — maidenking

Joel Rosario won Wednesday's 8th race for trainer Peter Miller aboard #13 Offlee Wild Boys.

Anybody wagering on these maiden races better take a close look at the horse jockey Joel Rosario is riding. Rosario’s new agent Ronnie Ebanks called him the best young rider he has ever seen, and I am starting to believe him.

Coming into the race, #13 Offlee Wild Boys had competed four times in maiden special weight company, showing speed in most of those events before fading. In this $40,000 maiden claiming race, the switch to Rosario and the drop in class were helpful, as Offlee Wild Boys broke on top then settled two lengths off a three-way speed duel on the backstretch.

Rosario made his move three paths wide on the turn and blew by leaders #6 Bold Fresh and #1 Tahoe Yodeler by the time the field hit the top of the lane. Offlee Wild Boys stayed strong in the stretch without being challenged to prevail by 2-1/2 lengths.  

Before the race, I was watching the odds on a pair of first time starters — #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob for possible bets. Also, #1 Tahoe Yodeler, #9 Beer Friday and #12 Swiss Tart were all possibilities at the right odds.

However, only Call Me Later, at 5/1, fell into the odds range. He ran in the middle of the pack then made a mild run to finish fourth without ever challenging for the win.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Tahoe Yodeler (CA) Quinonez A Bonde J 7.30 5
2 2 Red Mountain (CA) Gonzalez A Dahl T 47.90 11
3 3 Trouble Rules (CA) Smith M Fanning J 16.30 7
4 4 Swiss Hero (CA) Bejarano R Periban J 14.70 2
5 5 Call Me Later (CA) Talamo J Hollendorfer J 5.40 4
6 6 Bold Fresh (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 13.30 10
7 7 Curly Boy (CA) Valdez F Moger, Jr. E 31.70 8
8 8 Destined Journey (CA) Atkinson P Aguayo V 50.40 9
9 9 Beer Friday (CA) Blanc B Lloyd J 29.30 12
10 10 Warrens Heartthrob (CA) Verenzuela J Sise, Jr. C 21.10 6
12 11 Swiss Tart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Harrington M 1.80 3
13 12 Offlee Wild Boys (CA) Rosario J Miller P 3.60 1
SCR – Georgia’s Friend (CA)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
13 $9.20 $5.20 $3.60
4 – $10.60 $4.80
12 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $654.55 (10-9-1-13)
$1.00 Exacta paid $45.50 (13-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $247.70 (9-1-13)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $3507.50 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1967.20 (13-4-12-5-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $793.30 (13-4-12-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $135.70 (13-4-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $119.60 (1-13)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $15450.20 (5-4-10-9-1-13)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $167.20 (5-4-10-9-1-13)
$2.00 Quinella paid $53.00 (4-13)

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar, Friday Race 8 – lost $180

July 28, 2010 — maidenking

Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed Irish-bred Titus Aurelius for $25,000 on June 4 and won a Maiden $32K claiming race with him

My first thought when I saw the morning line for this race was that the odds for #9 Titus Auerelius, at 5-to-2, needed to be much closer to those of #3 D’oro Dancer, at 9-to-2. 

D’oro Dancer had stamina, speed and decent Beyer Speed Figures. And although Titus Aurelius’ past performances looked OK, it was obvious that he was the morning line favorite because of the glamour connections of jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Doug O’Neill. 

O’Neill claimed Titus Aurelius from Simon Callaghan on June 4 for $25,000 and on June 25 the gelding showed speed before fading in a maiden special weight turf sprint. On Friday, as the horses loaded into the gate, the public saw what I saw and made Titus Aurelius 8-to-5 and D’oro Dancer 2-to-1.   

In this race, Rosario quickly went to the front with Titus Aurelius, who cruised willingly on the lead down the backstretch in this 7-furlong sprint.  D’oro Dancer, who was also running without being asked, got to the flank of Titus Aurelius as the field swang into the turn. 

At the quarter pole, jockey Tyler Baze pushed D’oro Dancer to within a half length of Titus Aurelius and it looked like a stretch duel was forthcoming. However, when Rosario asked Titus Aurelius for more, he kicked away to an easy three-length win. 

I was prepared to put $650 on D’oro Dancer at 5-to-2 or better, but his post time odds were just 2-to-1. Another one of my wagers was to bet #7 Big Wags at 3-to-1 or better, but only if D’oro Dancer was also 7-to-2 or more, which he was not. 

However, I forgot to specify odds for the exotics, which included keying 39-to-1 shot Spinco Bob for third in the trifecta and second in the exacta to D’oro Dancer and Spinco Bob. Those bets cost me $180.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Not in Siberia (CA) Garcia M Ordonez A 12.90 7
2 2 Kim’s Leading Man (CA) Gonzalez A Abrams B 18.90 2
3 3 D’oro Dancer (KY) Baze T Walsh K 2.10 3
4 4 My Last Tycoon (NY) Espinoza V Stute M 10.60 4
6 5 Yvett’s Maar (NM) Medellin A Gonzalez S 45.90 9
7 6 Big Wags (ON) Bejarano R Glatt M 4.00 6
8 7 Spinco Bob (CA) Pedroza M Velasquez D 39.00 8
9 8 Titus Aurelius (IRE) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.70 1
10 9 Anga (CA) Berrio O Garcia V 20.30 5
SCR – Brianville (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Callaghan C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $5.40 $3.60 $2.80
2 – $9.80 $5.20
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $337.30 (8-2/6-10-5/9)
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $12.50 (6-4/5-9)
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.60 (9-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $73.90 (6-10-9)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $2633.10 (7 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $2298.40 (9-2-3-4-10)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $559.00 (9-2-3-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $121.30 (9-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $24.00 (10-9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $138257.00 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $965.60 (8-3-8-2/6-10-5/9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $56.80 (2-9)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 8 — 7:30 pm post time

July 23, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden 32k, 3-yo and up, 7 furlongs

Possible overlays                Morning line

#3 D’oro Dancer                         9/2
#7 Big Wags                              3/1
#8 Spinco Bob                           15/1

Besides having jockey Joel Rosario aboard, I can’t see why #9 Titus Aurelius is favored in the morning line over #3 D’oro Dancer. I guess the morning line maker believes that Doug O’Neill, who claimed the gelding on June 4, will combine with Rosario to work their magic.

But trainer Kathy Walsh is also very good, too. D’oro Dancer is dropping from maiden special weight and the 74 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in a May 2 route makes him a strong contender.

Rafael Bejarano rides #7 Big Wags and he should lead or be close to the front at the half mile mark. If D’oro Dancer doesn’t fire, this one might be tough to run down.

Finally, #8 Spinco Bob ran well going 1-1/16 miles on May 21 and he has the right running style for 7 furlongs. This longshot could blow up the trifecta.

I will spread my $1,000 out this way: At 5/2 or better, I want $650 to win on #3 D’oro Dancer.  If both D’oro Dancer is 7/2 or more and #7 Big Wags is 3/1 or better, then I will take $200 to win on Big Wags, also.

In the exotics, I want a $50 exacta box 3/7 and I will play #8 Spinco Bob in the secondary slots with $20 exactas 3,7/8 and $5 trifectas 3,7 with 3,7,9,2,4 with 8.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 10

July 20, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays    

#4 Tiger Trysts
#7 Proud Jenny
#8 Bigmikeistheman
#9 Elessar
#10 Jakesam
#12 Celestic Night
#13 Liquid Asset

I am writing this early Tuesday morning, so I do not have access to the morning lines. But, by the looks of the past performances, the likely favorites are #8 Bigmikeistheman, #9 Elessar and #13 Liquid Asset — a colt that needs to draw in from the also eligible list.

First time starters at nice prices win lots of these 2-year-old maiden claiming races, and five of them are scheduled to run in this one. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 64, which is 10 points higher than any of the experienced runners have earned.

Although owners First Home Thoroughbreds haven’t won with many debut runners, #4 Tiger Trysts looks to have potential. Trainer Adam Kitchingman has done very well with this class of runner when the horse is making its first start. However, all Tiger Trysts’ workouts are slow, which suggests that either Kitchingman has taken great pains to hide the horse’s talent or Tiger Trysts can’t run.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out #10 Jakesam and he’ll leg up jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to be sending his maidens to the lead. Hollendorfer wins with 29 percent of his debuters, according the Daily Racing Form, but most of his victories came in Northern California. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was the leading rider at the recently completed Hollywood Park meet, has a great record on debuting horses. Rosario rides #12 Celestic Night.

The horse who will probably be the best wagering opportunity is #9 Elessar. Trainer Kathy Walsh is very good with horses running for the second time and Elessar showed a good burst in the stretch on June 11 at Golden Gate while zig-zagging down the lane.

Another experienced runner, #8 Bigmikeistheman, has also shown some ability. Bigmikeistheman probably would have won on May 20, as he was cruising on a two-length lead. However, the gelding lost his action when he banged into the rail in a fluke occurence.

In his last race on July 1, Bigmikeistheman was four-wide all the way on the turn then bore out throughout the stretch to miss by a head as the 7-to-5 favorite in a weak contest.

If #9 Elessar is 2-to-1 or greater, I will bet $600 on him to win. Also, I will put $100 on #7 Proud Jenny and #10 Jakesam if their post time odds are in the 10/1 to 19/1 range. Finally, at 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $150 on #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night.

It’s true that my bets total $1,100, but I do not expect every horse to fall into the necessary odds ranges, so I will likely end up wagering less than $1,000.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

October 16, 2009 — maidenking
Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1
2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5
3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8
4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9
5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7
6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3
7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6
8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4
9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 – $4.00 $3.60
6 – – $15.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $400

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

garrettgomez25_mjm[1]

Riding for trainer Jack Carava, Garrett Gomez got #12 Lunar Humor up in the final strides

Three horses were dropping into maiden claiming $25,000 for the first time after running decently against classier animals. And #12 Lunar Humor, #2 Al N Con and #4 Morton Owen finished 1-2-3.

 Trainer Jack Carava ran Lunar Humor against maiden special weight company until his fifth race. But when the gelding could finish no better than third in four straight races, Carava began descending the class ladder.

In the maiden claiming ranks last May and June, Lunar Humor ran low-to-mid 70 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing second two times — first for $80,000 claiming and then for $40,000. On July 24 something curious happened, as jockey Michael Baze merely breezed Lunar Humor in the stretch, which caused the Beyer to sink to an all-time low of 63.

I am sure that the low last-race Beyer kept some betting money off of Lunar Humor, a 3-to-1 shot, despite the presence of jockey Garrett Gomez, who has a large following. In a recent TVG video, Carava — who is the son of a horse trainer — said that he enjoys picking spots for his runners, strategizing and compared horse racing to poker.

So maybe, just maybe, Carava was “strategizing” by breezing his horse in the stretch, so it would pay a good price when he picked his spot on the drop.

This race began with #2 Al N Con, #8 She Made Me Do It and #11 Cafe Con Leche all battling head-to-head down the backstretch.  Al N Con, who had led in his last two races against $40,000 maiden claimers, shook clear by a length on the bend, as Cafe Con Leche kept chasing.

As the field swung into the lane, Morton Owen and Joel Rosario were making a move some eight paths wide with Lunar Humor also coming on just inside of him. They had to make up four lengths on Al N Con, 4/1, at the top of the stretch.

When Joe Talamo rode Al N Con past the sixteenth pole, he still had what appeared to be a safe 2-length lead. But Lunar Humor came with a late charge to get up with two jumps to go.

Despite being extremely wide, Morton Owen, at 9-to-2, only missed by two lengths.

I bet $400 on Morton Owen because he had lots of positive long-term betting angles going for him. This gelding was 3-to-1 on the morning line, but was cold on the board throughout the betting period and ended up at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Deltamax (FL) Gryder A Cerin V 30.20 11
2 2 Al N Con (CA) Talamo J Rosales R 4.10 2
3 3 Joys Last One (CA) Stra K Martinez S 65.30 10
4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 4.50 3
5 5 Spartan Jet (KY) Pedroza M Lopez J 41.60 7
6 6 Smokenomore (CA) Garcia M Spawr W 6.50 4
7 7 Warren’s Juan (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 37.10 8
8 8 She Made Me Do It (CA) Blanc B Bacorn H 16.80 12
9 9 Secret Lure (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 21.80 6
10 10 Yrunvs M. B. (CA) Valdez F Becerra R 27.30 9
11 11 Cafe Con Leche (KY) Quinonez A Miller P 3.70 5
12 12 Lunar Humor (KY) Gomez G Carava J 3.20 1
SCR – Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R – –
SCR – Objectified (CA) Baze T West T – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $8.40 $4.40 $3.20
2 – $5.20 $3.60
4 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.30 (12-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.60 (7-1-12)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $264.80 (12-2-4-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $40.90 (12-2-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $51.20 (1-12)
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.20 (2-12)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses — #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7
2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3
3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2
4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4
5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6
6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5
7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60
3 – $4.20 $2.80
2 – – $5.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

August 12, 2009 — maidenking

64_D0F8F8D9_A7ACD_B1186_72000_3BA864B05_large[1]

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7
2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10
3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9
4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8
5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6
6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1
7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2
9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5
10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3
11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4
12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12
13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11
SCR – De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M – –
SCR – Swingin Jim (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80
7 – $5.60 $4.40
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

July 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

A couple of winners

July 25, 2009 — maidenking
Joel Rosario can't hold his smile back after he won the nightcap on Saintly Spirit

Joel Rosario is loving life after winning the nightcap on Saintly Spirit

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $400

June 9, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

This was a two-horse race from the bell.

Trained by Howard Zucker, #6 Jamieson hadn’t run since March 2008 and was dropping from maiden special weight where he showed speed.

Breaking next door was #7 Dirt Diver who ran a winning race in his March 25 debut, then went very wide and steadied in his second race.

In this race, Jamieson, the 2-to-1 favorite, went right to the lead and was pulling on jockey Tyler Baze while holding a two-length advantage down the backstretch. Dirt Diver sat in second and seemed to be going easier for Rosario.

On the turn, Dirt Diver came within a length of Jamieson, but the favorite kicked away by two lengths at the top of the lane and appeared to be home free. But Rosario and Dirt Diver never stopped working.

Jamieson weakened a bit, and when he did, Dirt Diver went by him and got the money.

When looking at this race, I gave both Jamieson and Dirt Diver good shots to win. But I ended up with $400 on Jamieson and was only going to bet Dirt Diver if Jamieson’s odds sank below 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Atlantic Victory (CA) Garcia M McAnally R 8.70 9
2 2 Fire Scout (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 9.00 5
3 3 Easy Plunder (CA) Cedeno A Capitaine N 73.20 12
4 4 Warrens Doc Mayes (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 88.30 10
5 5 Reiterate (CA) Martin G Rosales R 51.80 13
6 6 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.00 2
7 7 Dirt Diver (CA) Rosario J Aguirre P 4.90 1
8 8 El Noche (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 14.60 8
9 9 My Number One (KY) Scott J Wingfield R 99.40 11
10 10 Bradytomoss (NY) Gryder A Kitchingman A 13.60 7
11 11 Bonkersforbinkers (CA) Sorenson D Kasparoff J 10.80 3
12 12 Seeyainthefunnies (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 76.50 6
13 13 Sovereign Lord (CA) Vergara O Moreno H 4.00 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.80 $5.20 $3.60
6 – $3.60 $3.00
11 – – $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.80 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $78.40 (1-2-7)
$1.00 Pick
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Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

June 1, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O'Neill's first time starter Necessary Evil set a new track record

Trainer Doug O’Neill continued his 2009 success with 2-year-old first-time starters when #5 Necessary Evil established a new cushion track record in winning by 3-3/4 lengths.

O’Neill used jockey Joel Rosario in this race, which had eight first time starters of the nine runners. Necessary Evil, who was bought for $160,000, showed three quick workouts and I was prepared to wager on her at 7-to-2 or better, but she ended up as the 9-to-5 favorite.

Necessary Evil broke with the pack, then Rosario sent her to the lead. She was pursued down the backstretch and on the turn by #8 Laura’s Pleasure, ridden by Michael Baze. But that one ran out of gas at the quarter pole and nobody threathened thereafter.

I bet $200 on second-time starter #9 Win for M’lou at 9/2 and $150 on #1 Ghost Shadow at 12/1.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ghost Shadow (KY) Baze T Talbot S 12.50 6
2 2 Gambling Pokerface (CA) Arambula P Coffee C 63.50 8
3 3 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 5.70 4
4 4 Rote (KY) Smith M Miller P 6.80 7
5 5 Necessary Evil (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.90 1
6 6 Mi Sueno (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 3.00 2
7 7 Lena Miss (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 49.50 9
8 8 Laura’s Pleasure (KY) Baze M Ayers R 20.30 5
9 9 Win for M’lou (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherlock G 4.90 3
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $5.80 $3.80 $2.60
6 – $4.40 $3.00
9 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.70 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $
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Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — won $325

May 12, 2009 — maidenking

super%20clipBefore this race ran, I was listening to Hollywood race caller Vic Stauffer handicap the contenders as they paraded to post. And Stauffer had lot’s of good things to say about #11 Spacy Tracy, which included how this filly will crush this field if she ran back to the 78 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in her debut. Stauffer also added that he was confident that trainer Angelo Tekos could get the horse to win off her 17-month layoff.

With most other TV handicappers, I would not have paid much attention to their comments. But Stauffer is also the agent for jockey Joel Rosario, who has won on 24 percent of his 70 mounts this meet and was named to ride Spacy Tracy.

Spacy Tracy, who was 6-to-1 on the morning line, took enough action to be bet to 5-to-2 at post time. As the race began, jockey Tyler Baze sent another 5-to-2 shot #7 Mad For Plaid for the lead and she was in front by a length on the backstretch.

But on the turn, Spacy Tracy loomed dangerously in third place behind #10 Tahitian Bluff, a longshot who was fading fast in second place. In the stretch, Mad For Plaid was game, but Spacy Tracy ran her down to win by 1-3/4 lengths. These two were so dominant that the third place horse #3 Secret Potion was eight lengths behind Mad For Plaid.

I bet $250 on Spacy Tracy and picked up $875, but profited only $325 because I also had $300 on the Mike Mitchell-trained #14 To Hot for You, who ran poorly at 5/1. 

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for Maiden King. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by a website called Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Global Inspiration (CA) Baze M Mendoza J 39.40 10
2 2 Poolside (CA) Quinonez A Periban J 50.00 7
3 3 Secret Potion (CA) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 7.00 3
4 4 Be an Angel (KY) Delgadillo A Sherman A 16.90 12
5 5 Castillon (CA) Flores D Moger, Jr. E 20.40 11
7 6 Mad for Plaid (KY) Baze T Miller P 2.90 2
9 7 Atticutie (AZ) Contreras B Fiscal S 98.40 13
10 8 Tahitian Bluff (KY) Sorenson D Glatt M 18.00 5
11 9 Spacy Tracy (KY) Rosario J Tekos, Jr. A 2.50 1
12 10 Cape Moonlight (CA) Garcia M DeLima J 7.80 8
13 11 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Stra K Dupuis J 102.40 9
14 12 To Hot for You (FL) Gryder A Mitchell M 5.10 4
15 13 Whatafantasy (CA) Valdez F O’Neill D 28.00 6
SCR – Rio Revelde (CA)     – –
SCR – Grand Symphony (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $7.00 $3.80 $3.00
7 – $4.20 $3.20
3 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.20 (11-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $143.20 (11-1-11)
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