Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

August 19, 2009 — maidenking

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses — #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7
2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3
3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2
4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4
5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6
6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5
7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60
3 – $4.20 $2.80
2 – – $5.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7)
$2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)
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Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 16, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays             Morning line

#2 Dixie’s Sandals                     8/1
#3 Seriously                             3/1
#4 Star of Sapphire                   4/1
#5 Vivacious Anna                    8/1

Although #6 Imperatriz showed good speed in her debut and lasted for second, this filly had an easy trip yet didn’t run anywhere close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 80 for this class.

If the public sends Imperatriz off at close to her 5-to-2 morning line then I will enthusiastically bet against both her and #7 It Tiz, a first time starter who is 4-to-1 on the early line.

Much better potential wagers are #2 Dixie’s Sandals, #4 Star of Sapphire and #5 Vivacious Anna. Also, the Bob Baffert-trained #3 Seriously obviously has a decent shot, but she may be overbet.

Jockey Mike Smith rode Seriously in her debut, but now he shows up on Star of Sapphire, who’s been working out well. Star of Sapphire has a few good betting angles going for her.

Doug O’Neill saddles #5 Vivacious Anna and O’Neill has done well with this type of maiden in the past. Finally, Dixie Sandals has mostly slow workouts, but she fits the profile of a winning debuter — but only if she falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 betting range.

I will bet $250 to win on #4 Star of Sapphire at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on #5 Vivacious Anna at 5/1 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 Dixie’s Sandals at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the public goes overboard on Star of Sapphire and bets her below 7-to-2, then I will instead substitute $200 to win on #3 Seriously at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »