Results, Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — lost $100

January 12, 2012 — maidenking

Jockey Joel Rosario dominated Saturday's first race with Scream Queen

Scanning the past performances for these 10 runners, I noticed that none of these fillies ever had the lead at any point from the quarter mile forward. So, with no natural speed horse in the lineup, I expected a cavalry charge from the gate as the jockeys tried to establish themselves as the front runner.

But Joel Rosario made a clear lead with #6 Scream Queen and the strategy paid off as they were never challenged on this speed-favoring surface. The race favorite, #1 Silver Threat, was pushed along in second place down the backstretch, but was no threat to Scream Queen who smoked the first quarter mile in 21 and 4/5ths seconds and the half mile in 44 and 3/5ths.

 This was a rematch for these two runners, who met on Dec. 18. In that meeting, Silver Threat broke slowly then went wide, but still beat Scream Queen by a head while finishing second. Scream Queen’s tactics that day were to lay back a few lengths from the leaders then make a stretch run. Scream Queen’s change of running style from stalker to front runner on Saturday seemed to make a world of difference, as her Beyer Speed Figure increased from 63 on Dec. 18 to 70 on Saturday.

In my write-up before the race, I identified Scream Queen and Silver Threat as the logical contenders.  Although I noted that no natural speed horses were entered in the race, I did not attempt to identify who would likely go to the front. I should have taken a shot at it, because when I ran the past performances through my pace software, it showed that a repeat of one of Scream Queen’s past races would give her an easy early lead. 

But I was fixated on the bad trip by Silver Threat even though I knew her odds would likely be pounded down to an unbettable price of less than 2-to-1. In the Daily Racing Form, Silver Threat was picked on top by all of the handicappers and Brad Free wrote in detail about the trouble she encountered last time.

So, everybody knew.

I wrote that Scream Queen could win if she improved by a couple of lengths while Silver Threat regressed. And the way the race shaped up, that seems to be what happened. 

But I wanted 7-to-2 on Scream Queen for my $200 bet, yet she went off at only 2-to-1. My potential $400 wager on Silver Threat never materialized either because her post time odds were an ugly 7-to-5.

Anyway, I lost $100 on the race due to a flier I took on #10 Wild Date, who ran well four starts back, however has performed poorly in her last three — now make it four — starts.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing .com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Silver Threat (KY) Talamo J Miller P 1.40 3
2 2 Cal Bayers (KY) Gomez G Hess, Jr. R 8.70 10
3 3 Ansede (KY) Gutierrez M Taylor T 10.00 2
5 4 Candy and Nuts (KY) Krigger K Pederson D 15.40 4
6 5 Scream Queen (KY) Rosario J Sherman A 2.40 1
7 6 Call Me Tough (CA) Flores E Collins D 69.40 8
8 7 Causeway Express (KY) Quinonez A McAnally R 15.50 7
9 8 Secret Genius (CA) Santiago Reyes C Knapp S 37.60 5
10 9 Wild Date (FL) Bejarano R Harty E 9.00 6
11 10 Four Forty Second (ON) Stra K Bernstein D 24.50 9
SCR – Janie Girl (CA)     – –
SCR – Bull Rush (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $6.80 $4.00 $2.60
3 – $8.20 $4.40
1 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $26.50 (6-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $303.90 (6-3-1-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $61.70 (6-3-1)
Fractional Times
21.77, 44.55, 1:09.58, 1:16.24
 
Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — post time 12:30 pm

January 7, 2012 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $30,000, F&M 3-yo’s, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                            Morning line

#1 Silver Threat                                     5/2
#6 Scream Queen                                      3/1
#10 Wild Date                                        8/1

The two favorites in this race — #1 Silver Threat and #6 Scream Queen — are running in a rematch of their Dec. 18 6-furlong tilt at Hollywood Park. On that day, Silver Threat finished second by three-quarters of a length after getting bumped as the gates opened then going wide on the turn. After watching the video, I estimated that Silver Threat conservatively lost three lengths at the start and two more on the turn, so I upgraded her 61 Beyer Speed Figure to a 73. 

Scream Queen had a clean trip, although she was in the three path on the turn, so I nudged her 61 Beyer up to a 63. She finished third and was just a head behind Silver Threat.

The curious aspect of today’s race is that no true early speed horses are in the 10-horse field. Therefore, it will be interesting to see which jockeys try to gun their mounts for the lead then try to hang on at the wire.

Although, Scream Queen was the 4-to-5 favorite last time, it looks like Silver Threat is almost certain to be today’s choice. The four Daily Racing Form selectors pick her on top and Brad Free provides all the details about her rough trip in his race analysis. It could be that everybody at the track is aware that Silver Threat ran a winning race last time and they will back her today.

Silver Threat has a couple of other angles going for her, too: Her owner Gary Barber won with four of his last five second-time starters and her trainer Peter Miller has an excellent record with maiden claimers in their second lifetime starts. The major drawbacks are that Silver Threat wore front wraps last time, she has little racing experience and the crowd is likely to overbet her. Many times when the whole world knows about a bad trip, then for some reason the horse doesn’t fire in it’s next race.

Scream Queen can win if a.) Silver Threat runs a poor race or b.) she improves by a couple of lengths while Silver Threat regresses slightly.

Finally, I’m giving #10 Wild Date a chance based on the 58 Beyer Speed Figure she ran on July 21. However, this Eoin Harty-trained filly has not run impressively in any of her three starts since.

My Betting Strategy: I will wager $400 to win on #1 Silver Threat at 2/1 or higher. But if Silver Threat is bet below 2/1, then I will take $200 to win on #6 Scream Queen at 7/2 or better. At odds of 6/1 or higher, I will put $100 on #10 Wild Date.

Posted in Uncategorized. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »
%d bloggers like this: