Sunday, Del Mar Race 9 — 6 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yos and up

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#1 Uncle Greg                                          3/1
#2 Royal Import                                     5/2
#3 My Last Tycoon                                7/2
The rail horse #1 Uncle Greg obviously has competitive Beyer Speed Figures and top-notch connections in  trainer Jack Carava and jockey Joel Rosario. But I don’t think his running style is suited for this 7 furlong distance. 
In Uncle Greg’s last two races, Rosario was asking the gelding for everything in the stretch, but got little response. I respect Carava when dropping new claims in class, and this one might look like a different horse today. But I will likely have my money on #2 Royal Import or #3 My Last Tycoon.
Royal Import, who is trained by Bob Hess, ran his first nine races on the grass before a second-place finish on the Del Mar Polytrack on Aug. 8. With his turf racing experience, Royal Import should be able to stay near the middle of the pack and come with a late closing kick.
Trainer Mel Stute likes to race his horses into shape and My Last Tycoon is coming off of two turf routes where he ran OK. My Last Tycoon could be dangerous if he can reproduce the late run he made on Aug. 1 when he came within three lengths of winning a maiden special weight turf route.
I will put $500 to win on #2 Royal Import at 5/2 or higher and $200 to win on #3 My Last Tycoon at 3/1 or more.
Results: Lost $200 with a win bet on #3 My Last Tycoon at 5-1.

1 1 Uncle Greg (KY) Rosario J Carava J 2.20 1
2 2 Royal Import (GB) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 1.70 2
3 3 My Last Tycoon (NY) Quinonez A Stute M 5.10 3
4 4 Hamonic Motion (CA) Garcia M Young D 47.60 7
5 5 Warrens Temptation (CA) Velazquez J Van Berg J 26.60 5
6 6 Courtside Action (KY) John K DeLeon R 16.30 6
7 7 Quietly Waiting (KY) Valdez F Knapp S 16.40 9
8 8 Kopriti (CA) Gihua J Frousiakis J 17.80 8
9 9 Anga (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 7.20 4
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $6.40 $3.20 $2.60
2 $3.00 $2.20
3 $3.00
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $2041.65 (3-6-6-1)
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.10 (1-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $655.00 (6-6-1)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $4172.50 (9 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $208.00 (1-2-3-9-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $69.00 (1-2-3-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $16.60 (1-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $67.00 (6-1)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $1269.80 (4-4/13/14-3-6-6-1)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $239706.40 (4-4/13/14-3-6-6-1)
$2.00 Quinella paid $6.20 (1-2)

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                               Morning line

#3 Total Sum                                             5/2
#7 Lago de Oro                                          3/1

Five of these eight colts and geldings are coming off of recent long layoffs, but the two best look like #3 Total Sum and #7 Lago de Oro.

Total Sum is trained by Ron Ellis who has had success with maiden claimers coming off long layoffs, especially when they are making their third lifetime starts. In February 2008, Total Sum came up the inside on his own power to press the pace in a $40,000 maiden claiming race, so he has the necessary speed to win here. This horse’s Beyer Speed Figures of 58 and 54 look weak considering that most of these races are won by a 74 or better.

But Total Sum posted his numbers early in his 3-year-old season, so his natural maturity should allow him to run faster.

Lago de Oro came off a 10-month break on Feb. 20 where he earned a 61 Beyer Speed Figure while showing a bit of early speed at this same class level. On March 13, he also ran a 61, but at the start Lago de Oro bumped another horse slightly, showed speed while four or five wide on the turn, then had no stretch punch. I adjusted his Beyer Speed Figure to 69 because of the trouble and he looks like he may put it all together today.  

Although #1 Winterscore’s speed is dangerous, I don’t think he can run with Total Sum or Lago de Oro. Trainer Mel Stute likes to run them into shape and he upgrades jockeys on Winterscore from Delgadillo to Tyler Baze. I would consider this horse if both Total Sum and Lago de Oro were dead on the board.

Big Water, #2, looks like he’d like 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs much better and first timers that look like #4 Treadwell don’t win often enough to make them  worthwhile bets.

I will wager $400 on #3 Total Sum at 7/2 or less and $200 on Lago de Oro at 2/1 to 7/2 only.

Monday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:37 p.m. post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#5 You Wood                                   6/1
#6 Rise Above                                  3/1
#9 Zephaniah                                   9/2
#12 Hurley’s Way                              7/2

The Ed Moger-trained #9 Zephaniah looks like he could get an easy lead, but will he be able to last?

Bob Baffert has been running #12 Hurley’s Way in maiden special weight routes and now cuts back to maiden claiming 7 furlongs. Hurley’s Way was third best of 41 while working out at 4 furlongs on Jan. 15 and should perform better facing weaker. Second-timer #5 You Wood was bet to 4-to-1 versus nine others in his debut and he looks like a solid gelding for trainer Vladimir Cerin.

And finally, you can’t ignore the 72 Beyer Speed Figure run by #6 Rise Above in a Jan. 4 route race. Trainer Mel Stute hit at only eight percent in 2008, but Stute looks like he’s got this one headed in the right direction.

At 2/1 or more, I’ll bet $300 on #6 Rise Above and $200 on #12 Hurley’s Way. 

But if either Rise Above or Hurley’s way are 9/5 or less, then I’ll replace which ever horse has unbettable odds with a $200 wager on #5 You Wood at 2/1 to 10/1 and $200 on Zemphaniah, #9, at 7/2 or more .

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