Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Total Sum 5/2
#7 Lago de Oro 3/1
Five of these eight colts and geldings are coming off of recent long layoffs, but the two best look like #3 Total Sum and #7 Lago de Oro.
Total Sum is trained by Ron Ellis who has had success with maiden claimers coming off long layoffs, especially when they are making their third lifetime starts. In February 2008, Total Sum came up the inside on his own power to press the pace in a $40,000 maiden claiming race, so he has the necessary speed to win here. This horse’s Beyer Speed Figures of 58 and 54 look weak considering that most of these races are won by a 74 or better.
But Total Sum posted his numbers early in his 3-year-old season, so his natural maturity should allow him to run faster.
Lago de Oro came off a 10-month break on Feb. 20 where he earned a 61 Beyer Speed Figure while showing a bit of early speed at this same class level. On March 13, he also ran a 61, but at the start Lago de Oro bumped another horse slightly, showed speed while four or five wide on the turn, then had no stretch punch. I adjusted his Beyer Speed Figure to 69 because of the trouble and he looks like he may put it all together today.
Although #1 Winterscore’s speed is dangerous, I don’t think he can run with Total Sum or Lago de Oro. Trainer Mel Stute likes to run them into shape and he upgrades jockeys on Winterscore from Delgadillo to Tyler Baze. I would consider this horse if both Total Sum and Lago de Oro were dead on the board.
Big Water, #2, looks like he’d like 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs much better and first timers that look like #4 Treadwell don’t win often enough to make them worthwhile bets.
I will wager $400 on #3 Total Sum at 7/2 or less and $200 on Lago de Oro at 2/1 to 7/2 only.