Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#8 Danceuponthestars           7/2
#10 Towser                          9/5

This field of 12 is full of very bad horses that can be easily eliminated. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, but nine of the 10 experienced runners entered in here have yet to crack 40. Furthermore, the odds on seven of them have been less than 20-to-1 only twice in 17 races with the average odds of these 17 races being 53-to-1.

Single digit speed figures and Beyer donuts populate the racing form page. I guess that’s why the morning line maker hung odds of 7-to-2 on #8 Danceuponthestars, a first time starter who has been training slowly at Golden Gate Fields.

Realistically, I can see only three horses winning this race: #8 Danceuponthestars, #10 Towser and #11 Ministerfrommiami. Any other horse would be a complete shocker.

Owned and trained by Ed Moger, Danceuponthestars is switching circuits and jockey Mike Smith has won five times and placed five times in 19 chances with 2-year-old first time starters. Although most of them were in the maiden special weight ranks.

Towser showed a good burst of speed on June 12 and trainer Mike Harrington upgrades the jockey from Felipe Valdez to Michael Baze. Towser should be near the early lead, but his odds may be no better than even money.

Finally, John Sadler sends out #11 Ministerfrommiami who ran in spurts in his July 3 debut. This gelding is running in his second lifetime race, but I like Danceuponthestars better.

At 5/2 or more, I will bet $200 on #8 Danceuponthestars and at 2/1 or better I’ll put $200 on Towser.

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Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 1 — won $1,375

imgresBy looking at the post time odds, it’s easy to see that the public could not separate these horses. Six of the seven fillies were between 9-to-2 and 8-to-1 with only #5 Stevie’s Afleet, an 8-to-5 shot, being bet out of that range.

As the race began, #1 Auntgrace battled for the lead inside of Stevie’s Afleet with #6 Hard Eight just a half a length away. They ran that way until the top of the stretch when Hard Eight faded and both #3 Miss Anime and #7 Ancillary made their late runs.

Jockey Brice Blanc, who was riding Miss Anime, couldn’t find daylight in early stretch, so he was forced to take the filly seven paths wide in midstretch. Just inside of Miss Anime was Ancillary with Joel Rosario aboard. These two rallied past Auntgrace, who was nailed for third by #2 Bit of a Lady cruising up the rail.

In my race preview, I noted that second time starters that look like Miss Anime are good bets at 5/2 to 9/1 and I wagered $250 on her. But I also had another $350 spread over three other horses. Anyway, I collected $1,975 and profited $1,375 on the race. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Auntgrace (FL) Gryder A Mullins J 5.60 4
2 2 Bit of a Lady (KY) Baze T Hofmans D 7.20 3
3 3 Miss Anime (KY) Blanc B Powell L 6.90 1
4 4 Sheza Screamer (WA) Baze M Troeger R 8.40 5
5 5 Stevie’s Afleet (KY) Garcia M Cerin V 1.70 7
6 6 Hard Eight (KY) Smith M Headley B 5.80 6
7 7 Ancillary (KY) Rosario J Jones M 4.90 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $15.80 $7.20 $5.40
7 $6.20 $3.80
2 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (3-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $328.80 (3-7-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $47.80 (3-7)
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