Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
It seems to me that horses coming off layoffs don’t do well in races like this and neither do first time starters.That leaves me with one big stick out here: #9 Raise the River.
In his last race, Raise the River ran a 92 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a nose. In seven races, his odds have never been higher than 5-to-2, so the 7-to-2 morning line looks a bit unrealistic even in a 13-horse field. I think bettors will see that big last race Beyer and knock him below 3/1. Bejarano, who has won on 15 of the last 46 Carla Gaines horse he has ridden, will not help the price either.
Mike Mitchell trains #12 Grazen and his second-time starters win at a 39 percent clip, although most of them are maiden claimers. Also, rider Garrett Gomez has won on 21 of the last 56 Mitchell horses he has ridden.
With any improvement and a good trip, #13 Charlie and Chris can get there. He ran an 83 Beyer Speed Figure on Feb. 26, which fits in well here as the median figure needed to win this type of race is an 86.
April 25, 2009 at 10:31 PM
Too bad I didn’t see your post earlier…great call on GRAZEN, $26.60 75 times!!! A three horse exacta box would have turned a nice profit, but your win bet was outstanding.
April 26, 2009 at 2:26 AM
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