Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

June 23, 2009 — maidenking

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

When I took a look at this race, two horses coming off of recent layoffs seemed to have strong chances.

Trainer Mike Puype was bringing back #11 Mar Fina from a one-year vacation, which Puype routinely does both skillfully and profitably. But the morning line on Mar Fina was 7-to-2 and when I looked at the tote board it became clear that Mar Fina probably was not going to run well, as she was an ice cold 9-to-1 going into the gate.

The other filly racing back off a year-long break was #12 Veranda Cafe. Horses running in their second lifetime starts after long stretches away from the races are usually excellent bets — as long as they are at least 2-to-1 and no more than 9-to-1. The price on Veranda Cafe, however, was crushed to 3-to-2 by the betting public, so I could not wager on her either.

That left me with a $150 bet on #3 Sister Lucy who was coming out of two quarter horse races at Los Alamitos. Also, she ran a winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class when she finished third on Oct. 19 in a maiden special weight race.

In the race, Sister Lucy shot to the lead on the backstretch and Veranda Cafe rode her flank while pressing the pace less than a length away.

At the eighth pole, Veranda Cafe took the lead and was three-lengths clear of Kami D B C with a sixteenth of a mile to run. But Veranda Cafe tired badly and faded so fast that she not only lost the race, but she didn’t even hit the board.

Winning was Kami D B C, who was making her twelfth start, but ten of those were in maiden special weight races.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Rio Revelde (CA) Rodriguez N Rodriguez S 188.00 12
2 2 Kami D B C (CA) Delgadillo A Jones M 2.70 1
3 3 Sister Lucy (CA) Sorenson D Breuer D 9.40 4
4 4 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Couton J Dupuis J 150.60 7
5 5 Annie’s Loaded (CA) Espinoza V Walsh K 13.50 8
6 6 Girl of Mine (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 38.40 2
7 7 Nantucket Mist (KY) Quinonez A Sadler J 16.10 6
8 8 Irish Cowgal (CA) Garcia M O’Callaghan C 94.80 11
9 9 Terra Bella (CA) Flores D Rickerd P 51.40 9
10 10 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 6.00 3
11 11 Mar Fina (KY) Talamo J Puype M 9.30 10
12 12 Veranda Cafe (KY) Rosario J Miller P 1.50 5
SCR – Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D – –
SCR – Patiently (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S – –
SCR – Bombing Two (CA) Scott J DeLima J – –
SCR – A Beauty in Black (CA) Baze M Semkin S – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $7.40 $4.40 $3.20
6 – $24.60 $11.60
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $86.90 (2-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2716.80 (2-6-10-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $657.90 (2-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $13.40 (4-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $87.80 (2-6)
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Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

May 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Atta Lora                           6/1
#6 Meat Sauce                       5/1
#12 Parker’s Stormgirl          7/2
#14 Sure Nice                        6/1
#15 Miss Reyna                      20/1

I see a few good wagering possibilities in this 16-horse field, but none is more potentially powerful than #6 Meat Sauce.

This filly is coming off an eight-month layoff, but has a couple of quick workouts for trainer Ted West. She showed some early foot in September at Fairplex and races at this 6-furlong distance are usually won by horses on or near the lead.

Another speedster coming off a long layoff is #14 Sure Nice. She was loose on the lead versus eight rivals last September and lost by 3/4 of a length. But her trainer, Daniel Dunham, hasn’t won a race all year and her jockey Agapito Delgadillo is not a marquee name either. The truth is, that if her connections were anymore low-profile they’d be in the witness protection program.

Longshot #15 Miss Reyna also hasn’t run since September and is probably a better bet to finish last than first.  But when her owner Tricar Stables wins, their horses usually pay boxcar prices.

I’m giving a shot to two second-time starters. Both #3 Atta Lora and #12 Parker’s Stormgirl could win if they run a couple of lengths faster than they did in their debuts. Mike Puype, who is the trainer of Parker’s Stormgirl, has won with 10 of his last 40 second-time starters and anybody who bet them all would have pocketed a 40 percent gain. Statistics show that Puype is also a profitable bet in maiden claiming races and when using jockey Joe Talamo.

In the end, I will put $400 to win on #6 Meat Sauce but only at odds of 2/1 to 7/2. Also, I’ll take $150 to win on #12 Parker’s Stormgirl at 5/2 to 7/1, but if she doesn’t fall into the range then I’ll replace her with $150 to win on #3 Atta Lora at 5/2 to 7/1. Also, I want $100 on #14 Sure Nice at 5/1 and up and $50 on #15 Miss Reyna at any price.

If #6 Meat Sauce goes off at 4/1 or more than I’ll reduce my bet on her to $250 while keeping everything else intact.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

April 19, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Touch Me Babe                            10/1
#5 To Hot for You                             5/2
#10 Humane                                     8/1

Coming off of an eight-month layoff, #5 To Hot for You is dropping in class and is saddled by Mike Mitchell, who wins at 36 percent with maiden claimers.

Too Hot for You ran competitively when facing maiden special weight company at Del Mar in August and is making only her third lifetime start. This stable’s live horses are bet down, so I will like this filly more if her post time odds are low.

Breaking on the far outside, #10 Humane overcame a huge amount of trouble in her Feb. 5 debut to lead by two lengths in the stretch, but she could not hold on. On that day, she broke seven lengths behind the field then accelerated four-wide on the turn to the lead. It was an impressive move that race caller Trevor Denman recognized when describing the action.

I estimate that she lost 10 lengths so I adjusted the 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned that day to an 87. But today she is breaking from a wide post again at 5-1/2 furlongs, so she’s likely to be a bit wide again.

Humane’s trainer Derek Meredith is also doing something else worth noting. He named low-profile jockey Agapito Delgadillo to ride, so his name is printed in the Daily Racing Form. However, he switched to Michael Baze and that’s who will be on board.

Could Meredith have named Delgadillo while fully intending to make the late switch in an attempt to pump up the wagering odds? Would a horse trainer participate in such chicanery? It’s quite possible, because Delgadillo is still scheduled to ride #3 Likely a Star in the fourth, so the jockey obviously did not get sick.

Finally, Gerson Racing owns #2 Touch Me Babe and their first-time starters win more than their share of races.

At the betting window, I will put $400 on #5 To Hot for You at 7/5 to 5/2, but just $150 at 3/1 or more. Also, I want $250 to win on #10 Humane at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $150 at 10/1 or more. And finally, $100 on #2 Touch Me Babe at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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